Three Teams to Target on Friday, June 26th
Stacking has become a common strategy used in tournaments on FanDuel. The concept is simple – roster multiple players from teams with the best MLB odds to score the most runs.
This article will take a closer look at the three teams on FanDuel’s main slate with the highest implied run totals.
New York Yankees (5.7 implied run total)
The Yankees got absolutely manhandled by the Red Sox on Thursday night as they lost the series opener 3-19. New York showed signs of life early on but eventually, Rick Porcello was able to settle down and hold the Yankees to three runs over six innings. New York will get an even better matchup on Friday night as they square off against the newly acquired Andrew Cashner.
Cashner is an ideal matchup for New York – he’s a pitcher that can’t take advantage of the Yankee’s propensity to strikeout. In Cashner’s defense, he has done a good job inducing ground balls this season (49.1 GB%) but has struggled to induce soft contact (14.2 Soft%). Fly balls will be the key to New York’s success, or lack thereof, as Cashner has struggled to keep the ball in the yard when the opposition lifts the ball off the ground with a 13% HR-to-flyball rate this season and 11.2% HR/FB rate for his career.
Power is what we’re chasing when stacking the Yankees. The Yankees have unreal power in their lineup, even without Giancarlo Stanton, as six hitters in their projected lineup own ISO’s north of .200 against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons with Gleyber Torres falling just short at .190.
Fenway is a hitters park regardless of conditions but Friday’s forecast is currently favorable with temps in the high 70’s, a dew point in the mid 60’s, and winds blowing out around 10 mph. Via Kevin Roth’s WeatherEdge tool, similar conditions have resulted in a 27.8% increase in HRs and 10.5% increase in total runs over a 157 game sample. Those numbers could change depending on if the forecast changes, especially wind direction, but conditions are likely to remain favorable on Friday night.
Los Angeles Dodgers (5.4 implied run total)
I’ll be the first to admit there are certain pitchers that I just can’t resist stacking against regardless of if doing so has been successful or not. Anibal Sanchez is one of those pitchers. If you stacked against Sanchez every start this season it’s unlikely you have been very successful as he’s the owner of a 3.80 ERA. Advanced run prevention metrics view Sanchez much less favorably (5.20 xFIP; 5.13 SIERA) likely due to running pure in terms of opponents batting average on balls in play (.270) and due to how lucky he’s been in terms of stranding runners (79 LOB%).
Despite his low ERA, Sanchez profiles as a pitcher we want to stack against – low ground ball rate (34 GB%), below-average strikeout rate (19.4%), and poor at holding runners (he hasn’t been neutral in terms of rSB since 2011). When struggling, Sanchez is someone that isn’t only susceptible to the long ball (2.22 HR/9 in 2017) but also to stolen bases (especially if Kurt Suzuki is behind home plate) which gives opponents multiple ways to score fantasy points.
The Dodgers don’t have a ton of speed in their lineup (mostly limited to A.J. Pollock here) but they do have an absolute ton of power. Four hitters in the Dodgers projected lineup have ISO’s north of .200 against right-handed pitching over the last two seasons, while Corey Seager (.193) and Alex Verdugo (.184) fall just short. Cody Bellinger (.286), Joc Pederson (.298), and Max Muncy (.309) are on a whole other level and have legitimate HR upside whenever they step to the plate.
I am fully prepared to once again be disappointed stacking against Anibal Sanchez but all signs point to the Dodgers being one of the better stacks of the night. If the Dodgers are able to run Sanchez from the game early they will get the opportunity to keep hitting against a Nationals bullpen that owns the third-highest xFIP (5.03) in the league.
New York Mets (5.2 implied run total on MLB betting lines board)
Why would we stack against a pitcher with a 2.25 ERA? Because ERA doesn’t paint the whole picture. A closer look at Dario Agrazal’s advanced metrics is eye-opening. Agrazal has been beyond lucky through his five starts this season as his 6.19 SIERA is almost a whole four runs higher than his ERA. Agrazal’s inability to miss bats is almost laughable – he owns both the slate’s lowest strikeout rate (10.4%) and SwStr% (5.6%). Agrazal’s luck will eventually run out and hopefully, we’ll be able to profit from it when it does.
While they are far from the most powerful team in the league the Mets do have some upside in their lineup in the form of Pete Alonso (.300 ISO), Michael Conforto (.215 ISO), and Dominic Smith (.229 ISO). Both Robinson Cano and Todd Frazier have also flashed power at times throughout their career as the former hit three HRs in a contest just earlier this week. Outside of Cano and Conforto, nobody else in the Mets lineup currently projects to see their ownership in the double-digits. That makes guys like Pete Alonso (6%), Jeff McNeil (9%) and Dominic Smith (4%) elite tournament options.