Today's Hitter Breakdown: August 14th
Lots of early games today so we have a decent split schedule which should have some decent sized GPPs in the morning and at night for all you DFS junkies. I tried to include a little from either one to make it easy, and if you do not like the Coors Field factor, then just ignore the early games. Lets get right to it on a busy Wednesday.
Park Factors are starting to get back to normal with a bigger sample size, and it will continue to move towards the actual number as we get more games and more data.
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Today’s Hitters to Target
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Brantley | 0.898 | 0.3 | 0.32 | 1.04 | Gibson – R | 6.43 | 0.287 |
| Jedd Gyorko | 1.017 | 0.296 | 0.313 | 1.09 | De La Rosa – L | 3.26 | 0.265 |
| Curtis Granderson | 0.716 | 0.282 | 0.343 | 1.02 | Weaver – R | 2.87 | 0.277 |
| Mark Trumbo | 0.117 | 0.27 | 0.323 | 0.94 | Nova – R | 2.93 | 0.235 |
| Ian Desmond | 0.926 | 0.33 | 0.347 | 0.97 | Lincecum – R | 4.18 | 0.274 |
| Rajai Davis | 0.333 | 0.325 | 0.299 | 1.09 | Lester – L | 4.37 | 0.35 |
| Will Middlebrooks | 0.929 | 0.234 | 0.274 | 1.09 | Johnson – R | 6.2 | 0.186 |
| Mike Napoli | 0.544 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 1.09 | Johnson – R | 6.2 | 0.25 |
| Adrian Beltre | 1.346 | 0.322 | 0.391 | 1 | Thornburg – R | 1.72 | 0.321 |
| Nolan Arenado | 1.06 | 0.285 | 0.313 | 1.09 | Cashner – R | 3.87 | 0.268 |
- Michael Brantley is in play in the early games today as he gets to face the right handed Gibson who has been bad in the majors, but the Twins have no one else so they keep him around. Brantley has hit all 8 of his homers against right handers, and it doesn’t really matter who is hitting against Gibson, he lets them knock him all over the place with a .859 OPS to everyone and .871 OPS to lefties.
- Jedd Gyorko is a really solid hitter and should translate well into a productive player in the majors. He was slumping after coming back off the DL, however he looks to be hitting his stride again with 3 homers in August as he hit one last night. Gyorko hits lefties better than righties, and should have a great shot at homering again against De La Rosa no matter his stats. Gyorko is dirt cheap in most places and I would use him before he becomes one of the more expensive 2b options.
- The Yankees offense broke out in a big way last night with Soriano and Wells coming through against the left handed Vargas. The tides are turned now and the Yankees get a right hander who they have done well against all year. Curtis Granderson seems to be gaining some confidence as evidenced by his couple of hits against Vargas, and should have a nice game again. Granderson’s price right now is a valuetown as his skill level is much higher than what his current salary is.
- The thing with Mark Trumbo is that he is like Dunn right now where he makes a great GPP play but bad for double ups and H2H games. Trumbo can post you a double dong night for not much salary or he could go 0/4 with 3 strikeouts easily. It does not usually matter to him if he is facing a lefty or righty, and Novas stats are about the same as well. Although Nova has been good, Trumbo does have nice history against him with 8 hits on 13 at bats and 2 homers for a 1.754 OPS.
- I usually am not one to look at a small sample BVP and take something from it, but Ian Desmond has one that I might consider for using tonight. He is 9 for 11 with a homer off Lincecum in their careers, and both have pretty even splits. Although Lincecum has been good lately, Desmond has been good as well with 3 multiple hit games in his last 3.
- Rajai Davis aka “autosteal” has been having issues stealing bases recently, however he has been having issues stealing because he has not been on the basepaths. When Davis gets on, he steals. He does not even care if it is against a lefty or a righty, he will go for it and succeed 34 of 37 times. He has been struggling but he hits lefties well at a .902 OPS clip and has nice stats against Lester in the past going 8 for 30 with a homer and 4 stolen bases. Do not automatically rule him out because of his recent struggles.
- Does anyone think that Josh Johnson’s good start last time was the norm? Until he proves that he can do that multiple times in a row I think that his 6 ER games are more of the norm, and against the high powered Red Sox it should be more the latter. Will Middlebrooks has had a season to forget however he gets a good chance to start a turnaround against Johnson who has given up a 1.032 OPS to right handers along with 11 homers at home and 10 homers to right handed batters. In the most HR friendly park this year in Rogers Centre, Middlebrooks makes for some solid value.
- I went with the Red Sox right handers in this game instead of the big high powered lefties, because the 2 I chose have the most upside for their low salaries. Mike Napoli is also still eligible at catcher some places and he has hit right handers at a better OPS than lefties. Johnson is just garbage against right handers, so I would fire up Middlebrooks and Napoli and feel really good about it.
- The old grizzled veteran Adrian Beltre keeps on trucking and helping the Rangers ride on without Cruz. Beltre is on fire in the last week and the last couple of months and is hitting everything in site. Thornburg has been a bit worse against right handers than left this year but it is still a small sample. Beltre really does not care as he hits both equally well.
- Cashner has been really consistent giving up 3 HR per game recently, so you know the Rockies will get their chances in this one. Nolan Arenado price still is not rising and you can still find him at a bargan everywhere. There are a bunch of 3b on this list and it is a very nice night for the hot corner men, and if your site has a DH spot I would really look at using 2. Arenado is on fire with a nice 9 game hit streak, and recently he has been hitting for extra bases and RBIs. In Coors field he is never a bad play, so load him up.
Today’s Hitters to Avoid
| PLAYER | OPS-L7 | BABIP | wOBA | PARK | Opp-SP (L/R) | SP ERA-L7 | vs L/R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Gomez | 0.644 | 0.35 | 0.366 | 1 | Garza – R | 3.23 | 0.277 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.439 | 0.295 | 0.351 | 0.94 | Santana – R | 3.25 | 0.233 |
| Chris Davis | 1.185 | 0.343 | 0.437 | 0.99 | Corbin – L | 2.36 | 0.245 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 0.603 | 0.282 | 0.314 | 0.94 | Weaver – R | 2.87 | 0.231 |
| Kyle Seager | 0.358 | 0.317 | 0.361 | 1 | Price – L | 3.17 | 0.234 |
| Brian McCann | 0.666 | 0.28 | 0.376 | 0.97 | Lannan – L | 4.81 | 0.22 |
| Adam Lind | 0.766 | 0.318 | 0.351 | 1.09 | Lester – L | 4.37 | 0.227 |
| Daniel Murphy | 0.414 | 0.302 | 0.308 | 0.97 | Capuano – L | 4.5 | 0.259 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 0.619 | 0.251 | 0.387 | 1.09 | Lester – L | 4.37 | 0.28 |
| Matt Carpenter | 0.832 | 0.342 | 0.369 | 1.02 | Liriano – L | 2.83 | 0.387 |
- Carlos Gomez was finally breaking out and hitting in a very solid lineup, then Hart and Ramirez get injured and that other guy on the team gets made fun of, and you have Carlos Gomez and Jean Segura and about nothing else. Gomez’s statistics have dropped considerably, and I am not sure of his mental state but it does not seem good. He travels to face Garza tonight, and if he does not want jabs at his significant other, he should probably avoid bunting against Garza. Anyways, Gomez only has a .644 OPS in the last 7 days and is not homering as much as he used to and has gotten caught stealing 2 of 5 times this month so even with Ramirez returning I don’t like him tonight.
- Last night’s epic pitching duel between Fernandez and Chen could again be followed up by another duel between Turner and Santana. Ervin Santana has been having a really nice season and although he has allowed righties to do more damage to him, Giancarlo Stanton is not doing much damage of anything right now. Stanton has a .751 OPS and .233 average against righties and has not homered sunce July 28th.
- When you pick for or against Chris Davis you are basically playing home run roulette and asking will he homer? I think not this game. Even though he is in Chase Field, he does not have the best numbers against lefties, with a “measly” .829 OPS and less than half the homers. Corbin has solidified himself as an ace in the Diamondback’s rotation and has only allowed a .500 OPS and 2 homers to lefties all year. I am going to go with Chris Davis does not homer tonight.
- I loved Alfonso Soriano last night, and he cracked 2 homers against Vargas, but I hate him tonight. The uptick in price is not good considering he will be facing a right hander who he does not have much success against. Not to mention the right hander’s name is Jered Weaver who is a pretty decent pitcher in himself. Soriano’s .687 OPS against righties and general lack of production against right handed pitchers recently brings me to avoid him today.
- I am as big of a fan of anyone of Kyle Seager but this just seems like a terrible situation for him tonight. He is facing a left hander who he has a .234 average and .649 OPS against this year and he has been super cold recently only posting a .358 OPS in the last week. To make matters worse he has to hit against Price who has looked like the ace he is in the last 4 games. I hate this spot for the Mariners so you should sit Seager tonight.
- I was really high on Brian McCann last night against Martin who was due to lose, but he came up a complete dud with 0/4 with 2 strikeouts. I cannot imagine using him again tonight after that against Lannan who is not good but is left handed. McCann has had some big problems against lefty pitchers this year with a .220 average and .581 OPS, so if he cannot hit Martin how can he hit Lannan?
- Adam Lind has some big problems tonight even in Rogers Centre. Lind has to face off against Jon Lester, and I could even see him being benched and not in the starting lineup as he has a career mark of 3 for 29 with 12 strikeouts against the southpaw Lester. Lind has not been good either in the last week, and cannot hit lefties in general. Just do not use him even if he does play tonight.
- Capuano either gives up 5 earned runs or 0, and I am not joking. He has four 5 ER games in his last 9 and the other 5 games are 0 ER so when he is on, he is on and when he is off he is off. I think he will be on as the games he did bad were poor matchups for him. Today he gets the inept Mets and Daniel Murphy who cannot hit left handers and cannot hit period. Murphy has been absolute garbage in the last week and has a sub .600 OPS against lefties where Capuano is holding lefties to a .580 OPS. Avoid Murphy.
- You could look at Edwin Encarnacion at Rogers Centre and imagine him as a must play tonight against the left handed Lester, but I look at it a bit differently. We will start with the 5 for 33 mark against Lester with only 2 HR and a .637 OPS in their careers, and continue into the fact that Encarnacion’s homer rate against lefties is actually lower than his HR rate against righties along with his OPS. Also, with how homer friendly Rogers Centre is, EE actually has hit 8 more homers in the same amount of at bats away from home than at Rogers Centre, so be careful if you are paying for him today.
- Liriano had the worst start of his career last time out, but I am not too worried about that. He has always been implosion central, and has bounced back well in the past. Although the Cardinals do hit lefties well, I would avoid their lefties including Carpenter as Liriano holds lefties to a .344 OPS. If you take out last start in Coors, he has been very very good this year and should be able to rebound in a less hitter friendly park.