Week 3, In Which We Chase Greatness
This is a true story.
“Do you remember Game 3 of the ALDS against Oakland, back in 2003, when Derek Lowe threw that 2-2 slider to Miguel Tejada in the fourth inning, and Miggy fouled it off?”
“Um. No.”
“You don’t remember that? It was a nasty slider.”
“I don’t remember that at all. Why?”
“No reason. I was watching a game the other day and saw a guy foul off a similar pitch.”
I had that conversation a few years ago with a buddy of mine. Oh, yeah – my buddy was the one who brought up some random slider that Derek Lowe had thrown in some random, fourth inning at bat a decade earlier. That was definitely not me.
I was the other guy in that story – the guy who was blown away that someone could retain so much (useless?) information.
Lately, I have – somewhat randomly – engaged in a number of conversations in which others have commented on my “incredible recall.” How do you remember so much random stuff?
But, it’s funny. I’ve never thought of myself as having particularly noteworthy recall. Sure, if you had asked me, I would have told you I have a good memory. I would have said I retain most of what I hear, see, experience, et cetera. But I would not have considered my knack for retaining information to be anything someone else would notice or remark upon.
But then…you know. I had that friend I introduced you to above – that guy who remembered everything. (Okay – he didn’t remember everything. He didn’t remember anything particularly useful. But he remembered stuff like: “That 2-2 pitch Derek Lowe threw in the fourth inning ten years ago.” Not a strikeout, even. Not a hit-by-pitch. Not a home run that changed the game. Just a foul ball.)
I guess it makes sense that I never thought of myself as having impressive recall. If I had ever thought about it at all, I would have compared myself to that friend of mine. In using him as the bar against which I was measured, I would have considered my own knack in this area to have been far short of impressive.
Most of you know that I am a novelist. What many of you may not have spotted or really thought about is that I never mention the name of my first novel. Part of this, of course, is simply that I do not imagine there is much overlap between my DFS readership and my fiction readership. But a bigger part of it is…
…let me go back a bit further, actually. Let me tell you a few key points about that first novel of mine. We’ll travel backwards, chronologically:
That book was translated into Italian, and was published overseas by the largest publishing house in Italy.
That book won a number of (admittedly small) awards.
That book was a staff pick at Barnes & Noble’s flagship store in Manhattan.
That book was published when I was 26 years old. (I am 31 years old now.)
I finished the first draft of that book when I was 22 years old.
Jumping back to the present: The other reason I never mention the name of that book or, really, talk about it at all, is because I’m a bit embarrassed by that novel. If someone else had written it, and I picked it up today and read it with a critical eye, I would find a lot of things in that book that – to borrow a term from DFS – I would definitely “fade.” Heck, I would find some things in that book that would make me downright laugh at the author; I would find some things in that book that would make me cringe.
Not that I felt that way back then. (Although…let’s be honest, even back then I knew the book was not as good as I wanted it to be. Even back then I knew that there were some serious flaws in the writing, and in the story. Even back then I knew I would not be as proud of that book as I would optimally have wanted to be.) But when I look back on that book now – nearly nine years after I finished writing the first draft, and five years removed from the book’s minor wanderings into the public eye – I am genuinely embarrassed. Any time someone tells me they picked up a copy of that book, I have to force myself to suppress a grimace. “That’s not me!” I want to tell them. “Don’t judge me based off that! – I’m a better writer now than I was then. That book is not representative of who I am as an author.”
And sure, that’s true. That’s how I feel, and those are all accurate statements. But I also have to realize: The bar against which I measure myself is high.
I have to realize: When I critically assess my own writing, I do so by comparing myself to my favorite authors (John Steinbeck, Ernest Hemingway, Cormac McCarthy, Donna Tartt – to name a few).
I have to realize: My goal is to be the best novelist of my generation.
I know that statement rubs some people the wrong way. Perhaps I should not even put that statement out there. But as long as you and I are going be hanging out and chatting with one another at the end of each week, I may as well be straightforward with you. I may as well be honest.
And honestly, that’s my goal. I want to be the best. I strive toward that each day. I aim to outwork my peers. I aim to gain an edge. I shoot for greatness.
Maybe I’ll never get there. Maybe I’ll fall far short. But if I shoot that high and fail, I’ll be a whole lot happier in my dying days than I will be if I simply set my goal as “getting a few novels out there in my lifetime” and hit that goal with ease.
I have talked before about how fantasy sports do not matter as much as we all pretend they do. For most of us, DFS is nothing more than a hobby – a way to pass the time and have some fun and hopefully make some money. For a handful of us, DFS is a way to make a living. But even if DFS is a hobby you hope to turn into a way to make a living, it is important to keep in mind that the whole point of “making a living” – even if you are making a living doing something you enjoy – is to enable you to go out there and crush life. The point of “making a living” is to enable you to do the things you love to do – the things about which you will say, in your dying days, “I’m glad I spent so much time doing that.” It’s important to realize this. It’s important to keep DFS in perspective.
But with that caveat cleared out of the way, it is also important that you chase greatness in DFS. If you are going to do this, DO IT! Don’t just make it your goal to “have a profitable weekend.” Don’t make it your goal to “just cash in tourneys.” Set yourself against a higher bar.
If you fail? Fine. At least you failed trying to actually do something remarkable – and that’s a whole lot better than succeeding in an unremarkable way.
As you build rosters this weekend, keep that thought in mind. Don’t build rosters you think can “do well.” Don’t build rosters you think can “cash.” Fade that! Go out there and build rosters you think can win.
Chase greatness – and see what happens.
This week, we are going to look at three players at each position I feel can be tourney-winners this weekend. These players come with varying levels of risk. These players come with varying ownership percentages. But all of these are players I feel could be this week’s Cam Newton, or Carson Palmer, or LeGarrette Blount, or Stefon Diggs, or Kelvin Benjamin, or Travis Benjamin. All of these are players who just might help you do something great this weekend – players who just might help you win.
Great Quarterbacks
Derek Carr at Titans – $6,900 DK / $8,100 FD
In standard fantasy scoring, Derek Carr currently ranks third on the season among all quarterbacks. There are a few reasons I expect his barrage on opposing defenses to continue this week:
1) The Raiders’ defense has been unquestionably awful to begin the year. I say that as someone who was unabashedly excited about the Raiders’ defense coming into this season. And sure, I think they’ll get better as the season goes on (they have too much talent to stay this bad…right?), but a week of West-to-East travel for an early start is probably not the spot to expect their trials to suddenly evaporate. For as long as the Raiders’ defensive struggles continue, we can expect opponents to score points against them. And as long as opponents are scoring points against the Raiders, Carr will have to remain aggressive.
2) The Titans are quietly one of the great “funnel” defenses in the NFL. Last year, in spite of winning only two games, the Titans finished eighth in yards per carry allowed. Dick LeBeau’s defense loads up the box more often than just about any other team, and this leads to opponents attacking through the air. Carr has attempted 38 and 45 passes through his first two starts. I expect this to continue.
3) The third reason I expect Carr to continue putting up numbers can be explained by a simple, mathematical equation: Carr and his pass catchers are good, and the Titans’ secondary is bad.
It also helps that Carr tends to go overlooked by the DFS community. He has a strong shot to be the highest-scoring quarterback on the weekend, and you should be able to roster him at fairly low ownership.
Philip Rivers at Colts – $6,700 DK / $8,000 FD
I may have lost count, but I believe the Colts have now lost five starting members of their secondary. Keep in mind, of course, that a typical secondary has only four starters. The Colts are currently starting the backups’ backups. While we all know that the Colts are the defense to attack through the air at the moment, however, I am getting a sense that Rivers is not going to be in the 25% to 30% ownership range where he belongs. Part of this is because people think the Chargers will sleepwalk through games without Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead. Another part of this is because people are excited about Ryan Tannehill against the Browns in the same price range as Rivers (which is just silly to me).
While others look to the guy in Tannehill who is “facing a swiss cheese defense,” I’ll be looking to the guy in Rivers who is “facing a swiss cheese defense, in a game that actually figures to be a back-and-forth affair!” When a team is expected to prevent their opponent from having an easy time scoring, there are only three instances in which I will still be excited about rostering that team’s quarterback:
When the coach of that team is Bruce Arians
When the coach of that team is Ron Rivera
When the coach of that team is Bill Belichick
Those three coaches can generally be relied upon to remain aggressive on offense all game, even when their opponent is doing nothing. I do not have Adam Gase on that list, because I do not expect the Dolphins to keep stomping on the Browns if they have a big lead – which means I’ll only get excited about Tannehill if we expect the Browns to put up points in response. Do you expect the Browns to put up points in response, with Cody Kessler at the helm? If not, jump ship and join me on Rivers – who is facing an equally awful pass defense, and who is actually likely to be forced to remain aggressive all throughout the game.
Joe Flacco at Jaguars – $6,100 DK / $7,600 FD
Yeah, yeah – I was also excited about the Jaguars’ defense coming into this season. And why not? They looked great on paper! But the games are not played on paper. Which reminds me: in middle school, I did play football games on paper during class. This is completely true. I had notebooks full of entire games; I would keep track of the clock, the position on the field – everything. You’ve seen someone play chess against their own self? Yeah – that’s basically what I would do with football. Except, on paper. Anyhow…
This game will be played on a football field, where the Jaguars have been atrocious. Currently, only Atlanta and Oakland have allowed a higher opponent passer rating than the Jags – with the Jags also ranking 25th in pass defense DVOA. Last year, the Ravens threw the eighth-most passes in NFL history – and that was with Flacco missing several games. This year, Flacco is on pace to top 600 pass attempts on the year. Even with as “elite” as he is (that joke never gets old…), no one ever looks to roster Flacco. He has as good a shot as any quarterback this week at a 300-yard, three-touchdown game – and if you jump on board and he hits those marks, you’ll be one of the only people saving money and getting this kind of production.
Great Running Backs
DeMarco Murray – $6,300 DK / $7,700 FD
Any time I run a spell check on my articles, the one word that seems to always be misspelled – in at least one spot in each article I write – is “against.” In my haste to pound out 30,000 words of content each week, I often end up hitting a couple of the keys in the wrong order while typing that word, so that things are all backwards.
Things are all backwards with DeMarco Murray as well. Yes, that was a pretty lame tie-in, but I ran a spell check right before typing this section and ended up with another misspelled “against.” It was fresh on my mind. I did the best I could…
We think of rostering DeMarco for his rushing (well…I mean, yeah – these days, we generally don’t think of rostering DeMarco at all; but back when we did think of rostering him, it was for his rushing), but right now, it’s his pass game involvement that is catching my eye. The Titans have played two games this year, and DeMarco has grabbed seven targets in each of those games. While he will not get the 20-plus carries that DeAngelo Williams gets with his “seven targets per game,” he is the only running back besides DeAngelo getting that kind of pass game work. (A side note: Play DeAngelo Williams this weekend. Even with 25% to 30% ownership, he can win you a tournament as well.) No one really wants to roster DeMarco, and in a game that could quickly become a back-and-forth affair, he should be involved in the pass game once again; if everything falls into place just right, he has a shot at putting together a week-winning game.
Melvin Gordon – $5,800 DK / $7,100 FD
I guess he’ll be chalk. He’ll be chalk, right? But I am hopeful that the mental block the masses have against rostering a quarterback and a running back together, or rostering a running back and a wide receiver together, will lower ownership on some components of the Chargers’ attack. Maybe we’ll see lower ownership on Philip Rivers because Melvin Gordon is chalk. Or maybe we’ll see lower ownership on Melvin Gordon because Travis Benjamin is chalk.
Speaking of “chalk,” ChrisGimino releases his player-by-player ownership projections in Premium each week. If you’re not a Premium subscriber, remember that you can test-drive Premium for free for a week. If you jump in there today, you basically get two weeks’ worth of NFL content (this week’s and next week’s – as next week’s content will be released by Wednesday night). If you are scared that you’ll hate Premium and will forget to cancel your subscription before the seven days are up, hit me up on Twitter (seriously), and ask me to send you a reminder after six days. I’ll set an alarm and remind you, so you can cancel if you hate it. In the meantime, you can enjoy the NFL Edge that takes me 30 hours to put together each week, along with all the other awesome content in there. Including ChrisGimino’s ownership projections. Which is what got us started on this in the first place…
The ownership projections in Premium have proven to have a truly unbelievably high correlation rate. Right now, Melvin Gordon is projected over 30% on both DraftKings and FanDuel. So, yeah. Strategically, a fade may make sense.
On the other hand, the Colts’ defense is bad right now. Really, really bad. And Melvin Gordon has looked good. I do not expect Dexter McCluster to grab a massive role (he’ll get some third down work, but Gordon should primarily be the workhorse in this one), and I expect a big game from Gordon. Sometimes, chalk is chalk because it makes too much sense; I don’t mind Gordon as a tourney play – as he may end up as one of those guys you cannot win a tournament without.
Christine Michael – $5,000 DK / $6,900 FD
Christine Michael “looks like he shot out of a cannon.” Pete Carroll’s words.
Sadly, he followed up those words with some drivel about how they need to get Thomas Rawls going. Because, sure – that makes sense.
This last week, I watched the condensed version of all 16 games from Week 2, then I watched the “all-22” from about half the games. The thing that stood out to me, literally, more than anything else this last weekend was how awesome Christine Michael looked. Meanwhile, Rawls looked whatever is the exact opposite of awesome.
While word out of Seattle is that Rawls will play this week, word out of “history” is that Pete Carroll lies. I’m not saying, “I think Rawls will sit out this weekend,” but I’m definitely saying there’s a chance.
If you are a FanDuel player, pay attention to the rumblings as we move closer to Sunday morning. If you start seeing sneaky reports that indicate Rawls may be in line to miss the game, lock in Michael on a tourney team.
If you are a DraftKings player, I encourage you to intentionally leave yourself with some late-swap flexibility. If Rawls sits, and the news does not break until after the early games kick off, most of the field will be unable to pivot to Michael – giving you a chance to get an explosive back at low ownership, against a fast-paced team that is unlikely to do much on offense, and is consequently likely to give “the Seattle running backs” (hopefully a one-two punch of C-Mike and C-Mike) plenty of opportunity.
Great Wide Receivers
Amari Cooper – $7,700 DK / $7,700 FD
Amari Cooper has 20 targets through the first two games.
Amari Cooper should have back-to-back 100-yard performances, but he was pushed out of bounds last week before catching what would have been a long touchdown. So, instead, he’s “a high-priced receiver without a touchdown or a truly huge week to his name this season.”
I’ve typed enough words this week, across all my content. You’ve read enough words this week, between my content and the content of others. Let’s not waste a ton of time here. You know how I feel about Carr; you know how I feel about this spot for the Raiders. You also know how good Amari is. Now you know to play him.
See? I know how to be direct in my thoughts. Brief. Concise. Whatever.
Just…you know – don’t expect that to continue.
Sterling Shepard – $5,500 DK / $6,500 FD
One time, I bought a gallon of milk. Brought it home. Opened it. Poured some on my cereal. Took a bite…only to discover the milk was already sour.
That is what seems to have happened to most of these teams that spent big in free agency to improve on defense. The Raiders, Jaguars, Bears, and Redskins all have sour milk.
The good thing for us as DFSers is we know exactly how to get this milk on our cereal. Wait – that’s a bad analogy. Um. Sorry. There’s no saving that one.
The point is, the Redskins are expected to allow Josh Norman to shadow Odell Beckham this weekend. And while Odell will certainly still get some targets, this essentially creates a “funnel” spot, wherein more targets will flow to “the other guys” on this offense than would typically be the case.
Two weeks ago, Eli Manning threw only 28 passes. Four went to Sterling Shepard, and four went to Victor Cruz.
Last week, Eli threw 41 passes. Eight went to Shepard, and eight went to Cruz.
I expect Eli to toss around 35 to 37 passes this weekend, and with a few of Odell’s typical looks getting erased by Norman, we should see both Shepard and Cruz in the “eight to nine target” range again. Each of these guys will have premium, “sour milk” matchups, and should be able to take advantage in the same way Antonio Brown and Dez Bryant did the last two weeks. I don’t mind either guy here – but I’ll side with the guy who has more upside and say Shepard could be a difference-maker in tournaments this weekend.
Tyler Lockett – $4,200 DK / $6,100 FD
This is one of the highest-risk recommendations in this article. Okay – scratch that. This is the highest-risk recommendation in this article. Lockett may end up with only four or five targets and minimal production. But he saw eight targets in Week 1, and “box score watchers” will see that he saw only four targets in Week 2, but we know he missed a chunk of that game with a knee sprain. He practiced in full on Thursday of this week and looks good to go in a premium matchup against the fast-paced 49ers – in what should be a “get well” spot for this entire offense. With Russell Wilson a bit hindered in the “mobility” department as he fights through a high ankle sprain, he will have to do his damage with his arm (no – I do not believe “Lyin’ Pete” for a second when he says Russ is now fully healthy; that’s not how high ankle sprains work). This means throws to Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett – and Lockett is a guy from whom we could genuinely see something like six catches, 120 yards, and two touchdowns. Of course, his floor is about four points, but he’s a potential game-changer in tourneys this weekend, and he will go overlooked by many.
Great Tight Ends
Jordan Reed – $6,500 DK / $7,500 FD
For all the talk about there being “a bunch of value” this weekend, everyone is looking for a way to pay up for DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown, and frankly, Melvin Gordon is not all that cheap, either. The Giants (who happen to be the only non-sour-milk defense of the big offseason spenders) not only continue to profile as a team that will be poor against the tight end after struggling enormously in this area last year, but they also have improved in their defense against all other positions. This will funnel even more targets to the tight end – which is something Kirk Cousins, honestly, does not even need encouragement to do in the first place.
Oh – back to how this all started. The whole “value” thing. While everyone knows Reed is a good play, most rosters this weekend will naturally gravitate toward the tight end position as the place to save money. This will enable these individuals to fit in Antonio and DeAngelo, sure, but this will also leave a lot of rosters looking mighty similar – with a big hole in the place where the name Jordan Reed should be. Reed profiles as the top raw-points tight end on the weekend – and while there might be a few guys at the position who end up with a better point-per-dollar day, no one has the upside that Reed can claim to have.
Dwayne Allen – $3,800 DK / $6,100 FD
I cannot remember the last time so many people were so intimately familiar with the height of a bunch of men. But here, let me jump on board as well:
T.Y. Hilton is 5’9”.
Phillip Dorsett is 5’10”.
Dwayne Allen is 6’3”.
Not that height is the only factor in end zone targets, but it certainly makes a difference. Already this season, Dwayne Allen has been an integral part of the pass game in Indy. With Donte Moncrief and his 6’2” body now missing in action, and with (something most people seem to also be overlooking…) the Chargers’ defense doing a consistently solid job against wide receivers, even more targets should be filtered to Allen this weekend. Allen has averaged five targets per game so far, and he has led the Colts in red zone targets. Now that Moncrief is out (and with Jason Verrett likely to track T.Y. Hilton for most of the game), this leaves even more looks for Allen. He has multi-touchdown upside, and he could even wind up as a somewhat sneaky option in what is likely to be the highest-scoring game on the main slate this weekend.
Dennis Pitta – $3,400 DK / $5,000 FD
The bromance returns!
There are a lot of things in sports that we cannot quantify. We can’t look at analytics and advanced metrics to tell us a quarterback and a pass catcher have “rapport.” We cannot clearly identify and label a “bromance” – backed up by indisputable, numbers-driven facts. But Joe Flacco has long loved him some Pitta – and now that Pitta appears to be healthy, he has a shot to be a difference-maker this season.
While the Jaguars have done well against the tight end so far this year, this is a defense that is fundamentally susceptible to the position. Last week, Pitta saw 12 targets. That’s a lot. He turned those targets into nine catches for 102 yards.
It would be foolish for us to “assume” anything more than seven or eight targets – but even that type of workload, at this price, would be quite the bargain. A few weeks from now, Dennis Pitta will almost certainly be priced much higher than he is priced at the moment – which gives us an excellent opportunity to jump on board while the value is there.
Don’t just take my word for it, though. Dig around yourself. Get your hands dirty. See what you uncover this weekend; see what you think are the plays that can lead you to greatness.
That’s what we should be focused on, after all. Set the bar high – then launch yourself as high as you can. You may not make it, but you’ll come much closer to a massive weekend with this approach than you will with “just trying to have a solid showing.”
Aim to make this weekend remarkable.
Chase greatness! – and let’s see what happens.