Week 4, In Which We Are Richie Incognito
It’s election season.
No! – wait, where are you going? Don’t go anywhere. I promise, this is not going to be political.
Here, let me start over.
It’s election season. This is a time that brings out the best in some people. I’m sure most of you – regardless of your political ideas or opinions – will agree that this is also a time that brings out the worst in some people. Okay, a lot of people.
We’ll get back to that. But first, I want to tell you a little story.
The other night, I got stuck in an “Article Vortex.” This is similar to a YouTube Vortex – wherein you sit down to watch a single, three-minute YouTube video, only to realize a few hours later that you are still watching YouTube videos. The key difference, of course, is that in an Article Vortex, the amount of time wasted can stretch even longer, as each article can take quite a bit of time to read.
Actually, the Article Vortex that night began around 10:00 PM. The Presidential debate had concluded, I had just recorded my new, early-week podcast with BobbyFi and GNeiffer07, and I sat down to read a few articles about the debate. By 4:00 in the morning, I was reading about Richie Incognito.
A refresher:
Incognito is a bully. He’s a bad, bad man. He chased Jonathan Martin away from the Miami Dolphins by harassing Martin with texts that included racial epithets and crude comments about Martin’s mother and sister. Even the “redemption articles” – about Incognito’s second chance, with the Buffalo Bills – make these facts clear. Some of these articles do mention that Incognito feels he never bullied Martin, though that is obviously a side note compared to the pillar of evidence collected by the all-knowledgeable Ted Wells – a pillar on top of which sits the unassailable conclusion that Incognito was a bad man who did bad things to Jonathan Martin.
Then, I read the text messages myself. All thousand-plus text messages. Jonathan Martin to Richie Incognito; Richie Incognito to Jonathan Martin.
Have you read the text messages yourself? If you haven’t, I’ll tell you: they paint quite a different picture.
Now, I played sports myself. I coached football for a little while as well. As you can probably assume, I’m not as crass, as coarse, as irreverent, or as verbally aggressive as some of the guys I spent large chunks of time around. In reading the text thread – with the benefit of foreknowledge of the “mental breakdown” Martin would experience within a few months of these texts beginning – I identified more closely with Martin than with Incognito. And not the “Martin character” he tried to present in these texts; but rather, with the supposedly “real Jonathan Martin” – the one who peeked through the clouds of these basement-I.Q. texts from time to time. In looking at things from Martin’s perspective – from the perspective of a dude who was a bit too sensitive and kind and caring for a jarring locker room environment as abrasive as the one Incognito had helped build – I could see how he felt uncomfortable, out-of-place. I could see how he was stuck presenting himself as someone he really was not (and further, if you read the texts from start to finish: someone he eventually started to become – with a perfect example being Martin’s early refusal to pay for prostitutes alongside Incognito…followed, eventually, by Martin himself suggesting on more than one occasion that they go to Incognito’s favorite spot for said activity).
If you have played sports, however – which, I am assuming, is the case for many of you – you have probably been around guys like Incognito. Heck, I’m still distant friends with two or three such guys myself. And a guy like Incognito shows love by joking around with his buddies. The more severe and offensive the “joking around,” the closer that guy feels he is to you.
You may remember reading in articles, back when all of this was a story, that some of the Dolphins coaches had asked Incognito to “toughen up” Martin. The coaches denied this. Incognito denied this. But even if this were true, the texts these two men shared over the course of nearly a year – when taken in context – would seem to imply Incognito forgot he had been given this task. There was nothing in these texts that could have been considered aims to “toughen up” Martin. Not a darn thing. Just one teammate sophomorically bantering with another. Reading the texts in retrospect, you can see that Martin was playing a role, and you can see he did not feel comfortable being the guy he was supposed to be in the eyes of his teammates – but if you read the texts through Incognito’s eyes, as he would have perceived them at the time, you see a back-and-forth, give-and-take friendship in which Incognito would have had no reason to suspect his teammate felt mistreated.
I’ll point out that we have never seen text threads between Richie Incognito and Mike Pouncey. I bet part of this is because such texts would shake the moral fiber of humanity itself, given the all-but-certain level of impressive depravity those texts must put on display. But if we saw a text thread between those two men, I can all but guarantee we would discover that Incognito said far worse things to Pouncey than he ever said to Martin, as he was closer to Pouncey. Pouncey surely said similarly awful things in response. Would that be bullying? No, because neither guy was bothered by it.
I am not trying to argue that Incognito is a refined human being with a well-rounded view of the world. That’s an argument that even Roger Goodell could not pay Ted Wells to interpret evidence toward. But I am saying reading those texts from what would have been Incognito’s perspective paints an enormously different picture than was painted in articles and media coverage back then, and even than is painted in “redemption story” articles now.
This is, of course, one of the big reasons why election season brings out the worst in so many. Most people have their own opinions already. They then read stories and listen to interviews that reinforce their opinions. They argue with others who have a different opinion, with no intentions of actually hearing the other person with an open mind; they then have heated discussions with those who agree with them, as each person attempts to one-up the other on just how “right” they believe their party or their nominee to be.
This has long been a strange phenomenon to me. I’m not a big “politics” guy. I’m honestly not a big “have strong opinions on a bunch of issues” guy. I am generally more interested in finding the few rational and knowledgeable individuals I can find in regards to any potentially contentious topic, and in listening to these individuals with an open mind to weigh various points and counter-points.
If that’s not you in politics, or in other areas of life, I honestly could not care less. As they say: You do you. But I’ll tell you one thing:
That should be you in DFS!
I’m actually writing this intro at 6:00 A.M. on Tuesday morning. As in: two hours after I finally escaped the Article Vortex – concluding with that text thread between Incognito and Martin. Originally, I had a different direction planned for this week’s article, but these thoughts started bouncing around in my mind; they kept me awake; they implored me to sit down and pound out a rough draft of this intro right away.
You see, so many of us get set on an opinion about a player, or about a matchup, or about an approach to roster construction, or…well, you get the picture. It’s easy to get an idea in your mind. It’s easy to then find opinions that back up these ideas. And when you come across an opinion that presents another side to things? – yup, it’s easy to fade those thoughts. But if you are willing to open your mind and explore all the angles – if you are willing to read the text thread between the “bullied” and the “bully” from the latter’s perspective – you just might spot something that those crafting the story for the public are overlooking.
This week, I challenge you to go beyond what the “experts” are telling you. Go beyond what the public narrative is. Find a way to challenge the thinking the public has, and find a way to think about things with a different perspective – to approach things from a new angle. Find a way to see through Richie Incognito’s eyes, and see what you come up with.
Many times, you will come up with the same plays that the “experts” and the public are on as well. But every once in a while, you’ll uncover something you see differently – you’ll uncover a fallacy the public narrative has latched onto, and off of which you can profit by approaching from a different angle. All it takes is one of these plays to make your weekend. But of course, one play at each position would be boring – so we’re going to take a look at three per position…through Richie Incognito’s eyes.
Three “Bully” Quarterbacks
First off: The chalk this week should be Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, and Kirk Cousins. I really like all three guys. If you are a Premium subscriber, you will notice that all three of those guys are ranked in the top four for me this week in my point-per-dollar rankings. (If you are not a Premium subscriber, remember that you can test-drive Premium for free for a week! – which means you can get my 30 hours of research translated to you in the form of the NFL Edge that breaks down every game from top to bottom, and you can also get our Consensus Value Rankings and a bunch of other freaking awesome content.) I am certainly not “recommending” that you fade those quarterbacks; again, I like all three. But here are three guys who will go overlooked by the masses, and who could also post a big game on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford at Bears – $7,300 DK / $8,300 FD
Matthew Stafford is not going to sneak by anyone this weekend. He will probably end up as the fourth highest-owned quarterback – and he may even carve out a spot for himself in the top three. But…honestly? – who cares! Stafford has thrown the ball 39, 40, and 41 times to begin the season, and there is no reason to expect that volume to suddenly slow down this week against the Bears. Not only are the Bears banged up on their side of the ball, but the Lions also happen to rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA to begin the year. Yes, 32nd is dead last; 32nd is worse than even the Saints (in other words: the Bears should be able to put up points as well, creating a shootout situation). Finally, the Lions are (quietly) running their offense at the second-fastest “situation neutral” pace in the league – meaning they are making a concerted effort to speed things up. This game should turn into a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, and Stafford should be one of the main beneficiaries.
Trevor Siemian at Buccaneers – $5,400 DK / $7,400 FD
Siemian is a better play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel (where you can get Kirk Cousins for only $200 more than Siemian) – though, honestly, a case can be made for him on either site (on DK, you take him because he’s so cheap; on FD, you take him because absolutely no one else will be on him at this high of a price tag!). Unraveling the Broncos’ offense was one of the toughest things to do in the NFL Edge this week, as their success through the air in Week 3 was largely a result of the Bengals selling out to stop the run. But even with the gaudy numbers Siemian posted in Week 3, he attempted only two more passes than he did the week before, and he only took a couple more deep shots than he had previously been taking. That’s the argument for not rostering him. The argument in the other direction, however, goes something like this:
The Bucs are extremely strong against the run, and are weak against the pass. In order to win, the Broncos should again have to attack through the air to at least some extent – and with the weapons Siemian has on the outside, this could lead to another big day.
This is the sort of play that only belongs on your roster in large-field tourneys, where you need to make aggressive moves in order to beat a huge number of people at once. But if it pays off, this is also the sort of play that could help you on your way to a monster weekend.
Brian Hoyer v Lions – $5,000 DK / $6,000 FD
Yes – that Brian Hoyer. While Hoyer is not a great real-life quarterback, he is the kind of quarterback we can love using in DFS, as he is completely unafraid to force the ball to his best weapons. While some quarterbacks in his position would become masters of the check-down, Hoyer should do the same thing here that he did in Week 3 (and that he did last year with DeAndre Hopkins): Feed targets to his talented weapons, and let them go to work.
Coming into this weekend, both of these pass defenses rank in the bottom seven in the NFL (DVOA), and given how excellent the Lions’ passing attack is, we should see something similar this week, for the Bears, to what we saw last week for the Lions: The opposing pass offense should have success, thereby forcing the trailing offense (in this case, the Bears) to get aggressive in catch-up mode. This is an incredible opportunity in tourneys to take a risk on a non-elite quarterback in an elite spot, with an elite matchup, and elite weapons to throw to – all at minimum or near-minimum price.
Three “Bully” Running Backs
If we assume the chalk will be Melvin Gordon and Jordan Howard, this is another spot where I like the chalk. I also love Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson – though you can ink me in for that love all season long. But the list of viable running backs does not end there. Here is a look at some of the guys in great spots who will go overlooked in tourneys this weekend.
Mark Ingram at Chargers – $5,900 DK / $6,800 FD
Usage has been a huge concern for Ingram so far this year – making him a tourney-only option. But while Sean Payton is not exactly known as the most flexible coach (i.e., while he’s not exactly great at adjusting and fixing his obvious mistakes), there are a lot of reasons to believe Ingram’s usage could spike this week to the level where, frankly, it should already be. For starters, Ingram has received four targets in back-to-back games. Secondly, in what turned out to be a pretty sizable loss this last Monday night, he also saw 15 carries – the most he has had in a game this year. Finally, the Chargers boast a solid secondary (they currently rank 14th in DVOA against the pass – and I will not be at all surprised if that number creeps up throughout the year), but their run defense continues to be a liability (23rd in DVOA, and 23rd in yards per carry allowed). The Chargers also have a stout pass rush; while they rank middle of the pack on the year with seven sacks, they rank third in the NFL with 22 quarterback hurries.
Given that the best way to attack the Chargers is on the ground, and given that the smartest thing possible would be for the Saints to keep their own defense on the sidelines as much as humanly possible, the “right move” for the Saints is to ride Ingram heavily. Of course, Payton has shown no history of reliably making the move that makes the most sense, which is why Ingram is a tournament-only play. But if the usage lines up with what it should be, he will make for a high-upside play at fairly low ownership.
Carlos Hyde v Cowboys – $4,200 DK / $6,800 FD
There are two things to take into account here.
Firstly: The 49ers’ defense at home. Last year, the 49ers allowed 4.5 yards per carry on the road, while allowing only 3.4 yards per carry at home (which would have tied the Bucs as the second-best mark in football, had the 49ers been able to replicate that success away from home). The 49ers also had a huge disparity in pass defense – allowing 8.7 yards per pass attempt on the road compared to only 6.6 YPA at home, while allowing 15 touchdown passes and picking off only four passes on the road, compared to marks of six touchdowns and five interceptions in eight home games. Finally, the 49ers allowed 31.5 points per game on the road, compared to 16.9 points per game at home. This is all worth noting, as this game should remain close throughout if the 49ers’ defense shows up, which will lead to plenty of opportunities for Carlos Hyde on the ground.
Secondly: Chip Kelly. Kelly seems obsessed with feeding Hyde the ball, giving him 25, 17, and 22 touches through the first four games of the season. Basically, Hyde is the same thing people are excited about in Jordan Howard and Melvin Gordon: a guy who is just about guaranteed 20 touches, and who functions well in the pass game while also operating as the goal line back, all in a solid matchup (the Cowboys currently rank 29th in yards allowed per rush attempt – tied with the Saints, whom Melvin Gordon is facing, and just a couple spots better than the last-place Lions, whom Jordan Howard is facing).
Because this is Chip Kelly, and because this is the 49ers, I am obviously fine staying away in cash games. But Hyde makes for a great tournament play that the masses are going to overlook far more than they should.
Dwayne Washington at Bears – $3,800 DK / $4,500 FD
Washington is only $800 above the minimum on DraftKings, and he is the absolute minimum on FanDuel. “As well he should be, right?”
I say “Wrong.”
While Theo Riddick is supposedly the “lead back” here, he has proven more than once that he is not equipped to fill that role. Meanwhile, Washington looked excellent in his limited work last weekend (ten carries for 38 yards), and there is a strong chance he sees more work this weekend against a crumbling Bears run defense. I am going to lift a snippet from this week’s “Lions at Bears” writeup in the NFL Edge, to give you a further idea of why I feel comfortable recommending Washington as a high-upside tourney play this weekend:
One thing that stood out to me in re-watching this game on Tuesday was that the Lions appear to be comfortable deploying Washington freely in this offense. One instance in particular that highlighted this was a play on which Washington was originally lined up at wide receiver; Stafford changed the play, motioned Washington into the backfield, then handed the ball off to him. It was the sort of versatility – and the sort of comfort level in the offense – that many rookies do not show, and it bodes well for his usage moving forward.
Obviously, there is guesswork involved here. Washington could again see only 10 to 12 carries, in which case, he will be a drag on any tournament roster where he is used. But he could also see 18 to 20 carries at low ownership – and if this happens, you’ll be in great shape if you deploy him on a tourney roster or two.
Three “Bully” Wide Receivers
Because elite wide receiver scoring is heavily dependent on big plays, wide receiver is often the best position to pivot away from the popular options in tourneys – moving off the guys everyone else will be on, and taking wide receivers in similarly good spots who will go somewhat overlooked.
Doug Baldwin at Jets – $6,100 DK / $7,400 FD
No one ever wants to roster Doug Baldwin. I don’t get it. The man has 27 targets on the year (tied with guys like Brandon Marshall, Stefon Diggs, and DeAndre Hopkins, while sitting only two targets behind Marvin Jones and Amari Cooper, and three targets behind Odell Beckham). Yes, the Seahawks tend to throw less than just about any other team in football, but Baldwin has worked himself into a position where he is the guy when they do throw.
Also working in Baldwin’s favor this week are two factors that many will overlook: 1) Russell Wilson will see a downtick in overall fantasy value with a high ankle sprain on one leg and an MCL sprain on the other, as he will be unable to take off and run, but this increases the number of throws he will make when he drops back to pass. 2) The Jets are an extreme funnel defense – ranking second in run defense DVOA (a year after finishing first overall), but ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA, while allowing the most yards per pass attempt in the NFL. Baldwin is a clear WR1, and he’ll go overlooked. You cannot ask for much more than that.
Will Fuller v Titans – $5,300 DK / $6,700 FD
Sure, Fuller will probably drop a couple passes in this game. But he will also see plenty of Perrish Cox (who, by the way, is currently Pro Football Focus’ worst-rated cornerback out of all 104 corners with enough snaps to qualify), and he should once again see at least seven targets – with upside for more. While Fuller will not go “overlooked,” he is a guy whom many will treat as a risky play. Personally, I’ll gladly take lower-than-it-should-be ownership on a guy who is still underpriced and has an excellent matchup. The Titans are also a funnel defense – holding up well against the run for the second consecutive year (10th in run defense DVOA) – and the Texans will surely want to get back on track in this one with a big performance from their offense. While the Titans’ pass defense, as a whole, is showing signs of being better than it was last year, the target distribution on the Texans is narrow enough that I will love DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller in any non-awful matchup. And this is certainly a non-awful matchup.
Tyrell Williams v Saints – $4,400 DK / $6,400 FD
There is a concept that Travis Benjamin is the “clear number one receiver” on this offense now that Keenan Allen is gone. But since Allen went down, Benjamin has 20 targets and Williams has 19. In the two full games without Allen, Benjamin has 13 targets and Williams has 15. Williams possesses just as much big-play upside as his teammate, he has been receiving more targets, he has the same matchup that Benjamin has, he is priced lower than Benjamin, and he will receive less ownership attention. Um, yeah. Against the Saints, Williams makes for an inarguably excellent play this weekend – and yet, he will go somewhat overlooked in comparison to Benjamin. I’m not saying I dislike Benjamin – but I’ll gladly take the cheaper guy who has been seeing more targets and will receive less ownership attention!
Three “Bully” Tight Ends
Yes, there are lots of solid plays at the position this weekend: Greg Olsen, Zach Miller, and Hunter Henry, in particular, stand out as solid point-per-dollar options. But here are three guys who should draw a bit less attention this weekend, and who have the upside for a huge game.
Jordan Reed v Browns – $6,300 DK / $7,500 FD
Everyone knows that Jordan Reed is a stud. That’s no secret. But everyone is also being influenced by recency bias, in that Greg Olsen has had a hotter start to the season than Reed, and everyone is also being influenced by “prime time football” bias, in that we all saw Coby Fleener torch the Falcons’ secondary just a few days ago on Monday Night Football. Yes, Greg Olsen is good; Cam Newton loves looking to Greg Olsen; the matchup against Atlanta is excellent. But we could substitute Jordan Reed, Kirk Cousins, and Cleveland in that sentence above, and that would also be true.
If I were ranking Olsen and Reed for season-long this week – where “raw points” is all we care about – I would probably take a nickel, toss it in the air, and see how it lands: Heads for Olsen, Tails for Reed. Seriously, the floor and ceiling for these two guys in their respective matchup is that close. But in DFS, where these guys are priced similarly on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and where Reed is likely to draw lower ownership this week as all the chatter flows toward Olsen, Reed is the guy who makes a lot more sense as a tournament play – giving you an opportunity to take the same upside, at what is almost certain to be lower ownership.
Eric Ebron at Bears – $3,700 DK / $5,800 FD
Atlanta ranks 29th in DVOA against the tight end. That’s the matchup Greg Olsen has – the matchup everyone is excited to pick on. The Bears? – yeah. They rank 28th. Ebron has become an important piece in this offense this year – seeing his targets rise each week so far, from five to seven to eight. He is seeing downfield targets; he is seeing red zone targets (he has three on the year – the same number as Jordan Reed, and one more than Greg Olsen); and he has the athleticism to break off a huge play any time he catches the ball. He should be an integral part of the high-scoring game in Chicago this weekend, and he should go overlooked by the masses, as most people are still not ready to trust Ebron, and he is in that strange price range where he is cheaper than the guys everyone is looking to pay up for, but he is more expensive than the values others are focused on.
Coby Fleener at Chargers – $3,200 DK / $5,400 FD
I do not like Coby Fleener. I cannot stand watching Coby Fleener. I don’t know that there is any other pass catcher in football who is more lazy about trying to catch the ball when it comes his way. But Fleener has a whopping 19 targets over the last two weeks, and while he has somehow managed to turn those targets into only nine catches, he does get another great matchup this week against a San Diego team that has long struggled to cover the tight end. I don’t know if others will be ready to jump on board with Fleener this weekend; I don’t know where ownership will end up. But I do know that he offers as much upside (and I’m not just talking point-per-dollar; I’m talking raw upside) as any tight end on the slate. Sure, his floor is about “two catches, 18 yards, and five passes broken up because he made no effort to fight for the ball,” but Fleener provides you with an opportunity to grab big upside at a low price, which can make a massive difference in tourneys if this upside hits.
But don’t take my word for it! This week, try to think through the various games on the slate; think about how you imagine coaches will try to match up with their opponent; think about which players might receive higher usage than normal, or which players the masses will overlook; try to see things through the eyes of Richie Incognito – and put yourself in position to capture fantasy goodness that the masses are overlooking.