Week 4: In Which We're Not Very Different
It’s not that it’s “different.” It’s just…
Okay. Yeah, I lied. It really is different.
You see, my sister lives in Portland. That’s Portland, Oregon – not Portland, Maine (which is a much more normal town than Portland, Oregon).
Maybe you live there, too. It’s a great city – one of my favorites to visit. My wife and I are even thinking of moving there next year and maybe staying for a year or two before we move to Denver (where we eventually want to settle down to “raise a family” – which is probably a culture-created phrase that Portlanders despise).
In addition to being a great place to visit and – as I have been told by reliable sources – a great place to live, Portland could also be considered the hipster capital of the world. Don’t tell that to anyone who lives there, of course; hipsters never like to be identified as hipsters. After all, the whole point of being a hipster is being “unique,” and as soon as someone is placed inside a group, they are no longer as unique as they believed their own self to be.
If you’ve never been to Portland yourself, perhaps you have watched “Portlandia.” I’ll let you in on a secret: Yes, that show is an exaggerated version of Portland…but they honestly do use real aspects of Portland as the foundations of their sketches. I have literally seen a moving company in Portland (you know – like…what would normally be big, burly guys and moving trucks) that uses bicycles – carting beds and sofas and dressers behind them as they pedal up and down the hills of Portland, as if this were perfectly normal. And, I guess – in Portland – it is perfectly normal.
During a two week stretch last year, I visited my parents in Boston, and then visited my sister in Portland. I realized in Boston that I had a larger beard than the beards worn by 99% of the city’s male population. I realized in Portland that I had a shorter beard than the beards worn by 99% of the city’s male population. It’s a different world up there. Micro-breweries, brunch, bicycles, bridges. Bands like Modest Mouse and Minus the Bear. Complaining about Seattle, and visiting Seattle. It all comes with living in Portland.
My sister once sent me a picture from Portland of two guys at a bar who were dressed exactly the same: crazy-unique haircuts, long beards, curled mustaches, suspenders, plaid shirts – you know the type of look I’m talking about. Along with the picture, my sister informed me that the two guys had just met one another than night.
Everything up there is so unique. Everything up there is so different.
And yet, so much of the “unique” and “different” things up there are exactly the same.
That’s the funny thing about hipster culture. That’s the funny thing about Portlanders, even – even those who are not actually hipsters at all. Most people who migrate to Portland do so because they want to go somewhere “different.” They want to get away from the “same old, same old.” But by moving to a place where everyone is different, they end up in a place where everything is still exactly the same.
I had a great idea for this week’s intro, but it required me to have good Internet early in the week in order to send a bunch of emails to a variety of people. I did not have good Internet in Nepal, so I am saving that idea for next week. When sitting outside today and trying to see Mount Everest through the clouds (a failed mission) and thinking through what I should write about today, all I could really think about was the fact that I hated the cash game teams I kept coming back to for the week. The reason I hated the teams I kept coming back to? Simple: these teams were filled with the same players everyone else is likely to have.
This made me think of Portland.
And this led me to the following realization:
Sometimes, coming back to the “same old” players everyone else is likely to also be thinking of is not such a bad thing at all.
Let’s take a look at last week, for example. The final decision I kept wrestling with on my cash game team was:
Melvin Gordon and Demaryius Thomas, or Latavius Murray and Randall Cobb. Although I felt (and still feel) that the two pairings shared the same ceiling last week, I knew the Latavius/Cobb combo had a higher floor. Go ahead and use the combination with the higher floor, then – right? One would think. But because Latavius was “so much more obvious” than Melvin, I decided to go with a Portland mindset; I decided to go with the “less obvious” option.
Obviously, that was a mistake. That mistake was the difference between me having an easy weekend in cash games and instead finishing about 1% outside the money.
And yet, as I looked at my favorite players this week – as I examined the guys with the best combination of talent, matchup, opportunity, and price – I kept coming back to the same players. Favorite options included such obvious names as Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Karlos Williams, Devonta Freeman, A.J. Green, Randall Cobb, Travis Kelce, and Greg Olsen – basically, all the guys who were not only set to be in tremendous matchups, but who also have had huge games recently enough that everyone else (even those who do not necessarily know what they are doing in DFS) will be on them as well. As such, I have spent probably two full days trying to dig around for the “less obvious options.”
Finally, I realized: “What the heck are you doing!”
I am not going to force my way off the obvious plays in cash games. Different is sometimes good, sure – but sometimes, the “same old, same old” is not really so bad at all. After all, a lot of people will try to “do something different” this week, and will step into mistakes as a result. Our best path to success in cash games this week is almost certainly to simply stick with the plays that make the most sense, and to capitalize on the mistakes others end up making as they go all Portland on themselves.
In this week’s article, I am going to take a look at three of the most obvious options at each position, and then I am going to look at a “Portland pivot” that you can use in tournaments – guys who will be far lower-owned, and from whom you may be able to capture even higher production. In cash games, your best bet is to stick with the “most obvious plays.” In tourneys, mix in a few of these Portland pivots, and hope they create enough differentiation to carry you to the top.
You ready?
Let’s go!
MAINSTREAM QUARTERBACKS
Derek Carr at Bears: The Bears have been a bottom-two defense against the pass, as well as against the run (Football Outsiders). You know what this means, right? – it means you should upgrade anyone playing against them. The problem quarterbacks are likeliest to run into against the Bears at the moment, however, is that the Bears’ offense is not very good either, which will lead to fewer passes for opposing quarterbacks as the games progress. Is this a concern for Carr? Sure. But given that the Raiders do not boast a great defense, either, and that this game is in Chicago, we have a good chance for Carr to be passing into the fourth quarter. He has been a top-10 QB each of the last two weeks, and he is likely to be a top-10 QB again this week. Grab him at this price, in this matchup, while you can.
Tyrod Taylor v Giants: Speaking of top-10 QBs…how about Tyrod Taylor, right? The fear with Taylor coming into the year (I mean…besides the fear that he might just plain not be very good) was that the Bills would use him as a game manager, and that this would limit his upside. Last week, however, Taylor put up 30 passes in a blowout in which he did not even play the last eight minutes. The Bills are not “turning him loose,” so to speak, but they are letting him use his arm enough to put up top-10 stats. In a game in which the Giants should be able to keep things somewhat close, we can expect Taylor to be called on to do plenty. I will bump him down a little bit if Sammy Watkins ends up missing this week’s game, but I will still have him as one of my favorite points-per-dollar plays.
Aaron Rodgers at 49ers: Rodgers may not be as popular as I am expecting, given the low prices at which these other top-10 QBs are available. Because there are viable places to pay down at other positions as well, though, I don’t think you need to be tied to the idea of paying down at quarterback. Rodgers provides the highest floor of any player playing this weekend, as the 49ers have just been absolutely awful on defense, and if Rodgers is not the best quarterback in the league already, he’s just waiting for Tom Brady to die of old age so he can be. I especially love Rodgers in cash games, and as we saw last weekend, he can put up monstrous points-per-dollar days, even at his higher price.
PORTLAND PIVOT – QB
Andy Dalton v Chiefs: According to both Pro Football Focus and Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have a bottom-10 pass defense. Andy Dalton may be good for a dud from time to time, but the longtime stigma of inconsistency that surrounds him is more myth than fact at this point. Dalton has been playing like one of the most consistent quarterbacks in the league, and the Bengals will be facing a team against which they will have a hard time running the ball. Expect them to eventually turn to the air again, and expect Dalton to once again put up a much more solid game than most people are expecting.
MAINSTREAM RUNNING BACKS
Matt Forte v Raiders: Forte checks every box we look for in a running back. He is going to be heavily used regardless of the way the game goes; he is facing a team that is not exactly world beaters against the run; and he has the talent to put up a monster game. While Forte is held back by the offense around him, he is still one of the most consistent running backs in the league. You can rely on him for a high floor, and he has the talent to reach a high ceiling as well.
Devonta Freeman v Texans: I was ecstatic last week when I saw Freeman’s relatively high ownership in cash games and tournaments. I was convinced he was not a good play, as there was nothing in his track record of play to indicate he could put together anything better than a mediocre game, and there was nothing in the Falcons’ track record of play calling to indicate Freeman would be heavily involved. After last week, however, I am a believer, and the main reason is this: Kyle Shanahan. I’ve seen some telling stats lately about Julio Jones usage (for example: his red zone usage this year nearly equaling his red zone usage from all of last year already), and we have also noticed Leonard Hankerson jumping over Roddy White in the pecking order (rather than a coaching staff forcing the ball to the veteran far longer than they should – as most teams do), which reminds us that Shanahan truly knows how to optimize his talent. After the game Devonta had last week, I expect him to once again receive in the range of 25 touches. With this level of usage, he should be able to put together a solid game once more.
Karlos Williams v Giants: Williams is going to be a starting running back on a run-heavy team, and is priced near the bottom of the running back barrel. The fact that he is talented is just a bonus. Don’t overthink this one: play Williams. In tournaments? Play Williams. Let others outsmart themselves (just as they did with Brandon Marshall last week). Sometimes, the smartest play is not looking for what you can do differently, but it is instead identifying what the best play is, sticking with this best play, and creating differentiation in places where things are less clear.
PORTLAND PIVOT – RB
Melvin Gordon v Browns: The Chargers have run a larger percentage of plays while trailing this year than any other team in the NFL. Look no further than this for the reason Gordon has yet to break out with a big game. If the Chargers can’t play with a lead at home against the Browns, there is no hope for them this year. Gordon’s lack of pass game involvement is an issue, for sure, but look at what Latavius Murray did last week against the Browns with only one catch, and you have an idea of what Gordon is capable of doing this week. He does not need to be a cash game staple, but he should certainly be high on your list of tournament targets.
MAINSTREAM WIDE RECEIVERS
A.J. Green v Chiefs: We have already talked about the Chiefs’ pass defense. We have already mentioned the fact that we like Andy Dalton. If we like Dalton, we have to like A.J. Green as well. This is going to feel like “chasing points.” This is going to feel like you are rostering Jeremy Lin (that’s a reference to last week’s article, in case you missed it). But this is not a “noob move.” This is a move we would want to make regardless of what Green did last week; it just so happens that his game last week makes it that much more likely that poor DFS players will gravitate toward him, and it makes it that much more likely that smart DFS players will find a way to talk themselves off him (or maybe that’s just me?). Don’t try to be different; go with the “same old,” and profit as a result.
Amari Cooper at Bears: Cooper is one of my favorite plays on the weekend, at any position, and I am hoping he ends up getting the “early-season Mike Evans treatment” from DFSers – where a large chunk of the field gets too scared to trust a rookie and ends up missing out on the opportunity to buy him at too-low prices. Cooper is going to beast on this Bears secondary. You will want to be there when it happens.
Packers WRs at 49ers: James Jones and Randall Cobb – that’s who. With Davante Adams likely to miss Sunday’s game, these two will get all the attention from Rodgers. A Rodgers/Jones/Cobb stack in tournaments could lead to a very big day. If you need me to talk much more about why the Packers’ passing offense is a solid play, you haven’t been paying attention to the NFL this year. You want at least one of these guys in your cash game lineup, and it wouldn’t hurt to have both.
PORTLAND PIVOT – WR
T.Y. Hilton v Jaguars: As I mentioned in the NFL Edge: the one thing the Jaguars do well is rush the passer. The Colts’ offensive line is awful. T.Y. Hilton plays in the slot. And the Colts are expected to score a lot of points. You know what all this means, don’t you? It means there is a high likelihood that Luck looks to Hilton on short passes when under pressure, and that he hooks up with him on a couple long passes when he has time to throw downfield. Hilton is not quite reliable enough for cash games, but he makes for an excellent tournament option, with as much upside as any wide receiver in the NFL.
MAINSTREAM TIGHT ENDS
Greg Olsen at Buccaneers: Greg Olsen is used like a wide receiver, in the amount of usage he gets, and he has as much of a chance for a touchdown this week as any tight end in football. If you look at his price as an “eight to ten target receiver with high red zone usage,” rather than looking at his price compared to other tight ends, you realize just how affordable he is, and just how valuable it is to have him on your team.
Travis Kelce at Bengals: Travis Kelce is a man amongst boys, and the only thing that can really hold him back is Andy Reid. Sadly, Andy Reid does hold him back far too often, as Kelce has only topped six targets once this year. Still, this is a game in which Kelce could do a whole lot of damage, and while his usage is not quite as consistent as Olsen’s, he probably has the highest week-to-week ceiling on any given weekend of any tight end not named Gronk. Since there is no tight end named Gronk playing this weekend, Kelce has the highest ceiling of any tight end.
Martellus Bennett v Raiders: The Raiders have been the worst team in football against tight ends, and it’s not even close. Worse than that: they haven’t been facing elite tight ends. As bad as Jimmy Clausen is, even he can find his tight end; Martellus may feel risky, given the situation he is in, but he really has as good a chance as any tight end to put up the top score of the weekend.
PORTLAND PIVOT – TE
Jimmy Graham v Lions: It’s funny to list Graham as the low-owned guy, right? – the guy who will be overlooked. But with Olsen and Martellus drawing all the attention (and with Kelce certainly drawing more attention than Graham), we could see ownership far lower than it should be. We all know what Graham is capable of doing, and I genuinely think the Seahawks will work once again to get him involved. In tournaments, he makes for a very strong play as the Seahawks look to stomp the Lions at home on Monday night.
A final note: I will be back in the States at last (after six weeks in Southeast Asia) on Wednesday. You can expect me to be on Twitter a whole lot more at that point – answering questions and dispensing thoughts. If you want to get a head start on following me, you can find the link in my RotoGrinders bio below.
Also: you can find me at the top of the leaderboards this weekend. Care to join me there? Make the moves that make the most sense, mix in a couple Portland pivots, and we’ll be hanging out there together by the time Monday ends!