Week 7, In Which We Collect Sleeping Bags
I love sleeping bags.
I mean…I absolutely love them. I collect sleeping bags the way other people collect…you know, things that normal people collect.
I have five sleeping bags in all.
I have an old sleeping bag – in storage somewhere (I haven’t used it in years) – that’s 100% cotton; none of that nylon-outer-shell crap. It’s great for lounging around indoors.
I have a couple of lightweight sleeping bags for backpacking (one of which is a full mummy-style sleeping bag, and another of which is a modified mummy-style, with more room for my legs to bend outward).
I have an L.L. Bean sleeping bag (extra-long, flannel-lined) that’s my go-to unit at home.
And I have a Selk Bag.
Oh. You don’t know what a Selk Bag is? Yeah – it’s this:
I’ve always been a fan of sleeping bags. When I was single, I slept in one every night. Now that I’m married, I sleep in a sleeping bag…not every night, but more often than my wife would like. She thinks it’s weird. Perhaps you think it’s weird as well.
The Selk Bag is great for working (oftentimes, during NFL Edge days – especially as we move into colder months – I’ll sit in that thing for hours). I’ll intentionally keep my home cold so that I have an excuse to use it.
The extra-long flannel-lined bag is great for relaxing – reading a book, watching a movie or game; whatever.
The other sleeping bags get less use, but they all serve a purpose.
It’s funny, I guess. Not the fact that I love sleeping bags (I mean…that’s funny as well, but we’ll get to that in a minute), but more than that, it’s funny because I cannot stand to start a day without getting dressed. I give Levitan a hard time when we log on for our Friday night show and he’s walking around his house in basketball shorts and a T-shirt that he clearly received for free and has not washed in weeks. I give Grant a hard time when he shows up to “work” in his underwear (which happens about as often as you would imagine). When I’m at a live final or in Nashville for a RotoGrinders event, I’m usually one of maybe 10 people wearing grown-up clothes (worth noting: Assani is a sharp dresser, and should not be included in this discussion). Even on Christmas morning, I can’t sit around in sweatpants; I have to shower and put on grownup pants right away.
My counterparts tell me that this is a huge part of the reason we work from home – to be able to wear whatever we want. I guess that’s true…but “whatever I want to wear” is almost always real-life clothes.
Unless I’m in a sleeping bag.
Which – on the surface – makes zero sense.
How does this happen?
How do I go from “having to be dressed the moment I wake up” (right now, I’m wearing khakis, boots, a short-sleeve henley, and a cardigan – on my couch, at home) to “sitting around in a sleeping bag all day”?
What on Earth is the thinking?
It’s a fair question – but I have a fair answer to give you.
Fortress.
I love feeling “fortressed.”
I like saving money more than I like spending it, because I feel “fortressed” as I watch that money grow.
In social settings, I like listening to others more than I like talking, as I get to know others while remaining fortressed myself.
I almost never wear shorts in public; I prefer pants – even in the summer – as pants leave me feeling so much more fortressed.
And until I got my tattoo (which fortresses a large chunk of my arm), I preferred long-sleeve shirts over short-sleeves, in order to keep me fortressed.
This is not something I think about consciously, but it’s almost always in the back of my mind – dictating my decisions; keeping me protected.
And I like sleeping bags because they make me feel the same way. They close me off from my surroundings. They keep me fortressed.
When I sit in my Selk bag and work, I feel insulated from everything going on around me (I also use ear plugs while I work on the NFL Edge, and usually wear over-ear, noise-canceling headphones even if I’m not listening to music; it’s like I’m triple-insulated from reality and immersed fully in an alternate world where football stats drive everything). When I sleep in a sleeping bag, I’m like a hermit crab hanging out in a new shell that protects me from my surroundings. And when I make tea and hang out on the couch in my sleeping bag with a book on my lap, I feel insulated from the outside world.
Fortressed. I absolutely love it.
One of the weird dichotomies I have had to adjust to as a DFS player, however, is my natural inclination toward safety contrasted by the importance of taking risks in DFS. I have partially overcome this obstacle by focusing heavily on cash games, high-dollar tourneys, and single-entry tourneys for my DFS income, as this enables me to take a safer route than is required to win a tourney against hundreds of thousands of other entries. But even with that, there are times when risks become necessary.
This is a topic worth exploring in this week’s Home Page version of the NFL Edge, as I have chosen to highlight 16 players below from this week’s game-by-game breakdown…four of whom are seemingly “unsafe” guys to fade (given the public’s assumption regarding the safety/upside these players have, and the ownership these two should see), and some of the other 12 of whom are seemingly “unsafe” guys to target.
There are times, however, when it becomes important to step out of the sleeping bag. There are times when it makes sense to target C.J. Beathard, or Deshone Kizer, or even Marquise Goodwin.
There are times when safety has to take a backseat. When we have to leave our fortress. When we have to attack.
Here are 14 players (concentrated around three games) who stood out to me in a major way this week when I read through my NFL Edge.
Step out of the sleeping bag, and join me this week.
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Ravens at Vikings
Highlighted Players: Adam Thielen, Kyle Rudolph
Vegas-Implied Total: Vikings 22.5, Ravens 17.0
KEY MATCHUPS:
Vikings Run D – 5th DVOA / 3rd Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O – 15th DVOA / 10th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D – 16th DVOA / 15th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Ravens Pass O – 28th DVOA / 31st Yards per pass attempt
Ravens Run D – 16th DVOA / 21st Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O – 22nd DVOA / 18th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D – 2nd DVOA / 13th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Vikings Pass O – 3rd DVOA / 9th Yards per pass attempt
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I imagine a good 8% to 12% of the field in tourneys this week will roster Adam Thielen after he saw 13 targets last week and posted a nice game along the way. As talented as Thielen is, however, I’ll have a tough time pulling the trigger myself at his elevated price, even if Stefon Diggs is out again. Only four teams in the NFL have allowed fewer completions to wide receivers than the Ravens, with quarterbacks completing only 50 of 100 passes to wideouts this year vs Baltimore.
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Attacking the Ravens with Kyle Rudolph is potentially a trap. The Ravens rank near the top of the league in terms of “most fantasy points allowed” to the tight end, but they actually rank 24th in receptions allowed to tight ends. The big issue for the Ravens is that they have allowed the second most touchdowns in the NFL to the position – but in spite of allowing seven touchdowns to tight ends, the Ravens have seen only five red zone targets (and have allowed only one red zone touchdown) to the position. Because Rudolph is not a big-play threat, and because the Ravens are not allowing big PPR days to tight ends, Rudolph will likely need to score from in close in order to post the sort of game we should be targeting, and the Ravens are stingy in close (20th in Red Zone targets, 24th in Red Zone catches). It won’t surprise me if Rudolph posts a solid game, but it also won’t surprise me if he disappoints. With tons to like at tight end this week, I’ll target a higher floor and the same ceiling in other spots, and hope that Rudolph disappoints the large chunk of the field that is likely to roster him.
Cardinals “at” Rams (in London)
Highlighted Players: Jared Goff, Adrian Peterson
Vegas-Implied Total: Rams 25.25, Cardinals 21.75
KEY MATCHUPS:
Rams Run D – 22nd DVOA / 29th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O – 32nd DVOA / 32nd Yards per carry
Rams Pass D – 6th DVOA / 21st Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cardinals Pass O – 22nd DVOA / 10th Yards per pass attempt
Cardinals Run D – 4th DVOA / 4th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O – 19th DVOA / 19th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D – 24th DVOA / 23rd Yards allowed per pass attempt
Rams Pass O – 5th DVOA / 4th Yards per pass attempt
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Jared Goff is playing well this year, ranking fourth in yards per pass attempt and ninth in quarterback rating, while tossing eight touchdowns to only three interceptions…but his DFS price tag has not risen to a level that reflects this quality of play – largely because he has stayed under 30 pass attempts in four of six games already this year (and one of the games in which he rose above that mark was in a brutal matchup against Seattle, where Sean McVay apparently overthought things and threw 47 times in a close game while giving Gurley only 14 carries…against a team that is far more beatable on the ground). There is a chance that McVay goes the other way this week – that he “sticks to what we do” (going run-heavy) in spite of the fact that the matchup dictates the Rams should take to the air. After he took criticism for going too pass-heavy against the Seahawks, it would not be surprising if he sticks to the run in this one. But if the Rams do allow the matchup to dictate their approach, and allow Goff to throw the ball 40+ times, we could see a tremendous game from this passing attack, at an affordable price. For that reason, Goff is in play – as a risk/reward option – in tourneys.
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Adrian Peterson bucked every bit of conventional thinking last week to post a monster game. He had not topped 100 yards since 2015, and he had joined a Cardinals team that entered last week ranked 32nd in run offense DVOA and 32nd in adjusted line yards. A 32-year-old running back (who does not catch passes) joining the pass-heaviest team in football behind a bad offensive line was not supposed to post a monster game – but then, I guess we should expect the unexpected when it comes to Adrian Peterson. The matchup is great this week – against a Rams team that has been gashed on the ground, and is solid through the air – so Peterson is in play in tourneys. While the Cardinals’ line is not good, their power-blocking scheme suits Peterson perfectly, and he’s a good bet to score against a Rams team that has allowed the most rushing touchdowns and the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs.
Titans at Browns
Highlighted Players: Delanie Walker, Rishard Matthews, Eric Decker, DeShone Kizer
Vegas-Implied Total: Titans 26.25, Browns 20.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
Browns Run D – 3rd DVOA / 2nd Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O – 3rd DVOA / 3rd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D – 32nd DVOA / 27th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Titans Pass O – 14th DVOA / 19th Yards per pass attempt
Titans Run D – 17th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O – 9th DVOA / 15th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D – 25th DVOA / 11th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Browns Pass O – 32nd DVOA / 30th Yards per pass attempt
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Let’s talk about the Cleveland Browns against wide receivers.
Jason McCourty somehow has Pro Football Focus’ highest cornerback rating in the NFL, and a Gregg Williams defense is somehow holding up on the perimeter. Only six teams in the NFL have allowed fewer receptions to the wide receiver position this year, only two teams have seen fewer targets to the wide receiver, and only 10 teams have allowed fewer yards. The Browns have allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers (tied with the Bucs for the sixth-worst mark in the league), but this is creating a touchdown-or-bust situation. We could spend a thousand words debating whether the Browns are good against wide receivers, or are instead just so bad defending tight ends that wide receivers are not being targeted. But either way, the assessment comes out the same way this week – with a Titans team that is perfectly happy to throw to the tight end:
The Titans receivers may not be in as great of a spot this week as it appears at first glance.
This is worth noting, as early-week trends are pointing to Rishard Matthews and possibly even Eric Decker becoming the chalk…against a team that is seeing the fewest targets per game to the wide receiver position.
There is a different angle from which to look at this. Antonio Brown lit the Browns on fire in Week 1 with an 11-182-0 line, while T.Y. Hilton rinsed the Browns for a 7-153-1 line. A.J. Green caught only five passes for 63 yards, but he managed to add a touchdown, and while DeAndre Hopkins posted only a 2-19-1 line, Will Fuller notched 62 yards and a touchdown on only two catches.
I still lean Delanie Walker here – and I think he is the best point-per-dollar play among Titans pass catchers (especially on FanDuel), against a team that has allowed the most catches, the third-most yards, and the third-most touchdowns to tight ends. Decker and Rishard are not in the same class as Brown, Hilton, and Green, and the Titans have an excellent tight end to attack with.
I won’t be surprised if Rishard or Decker post a good game. But there is enough to like away from this game – and there are enough ways in which Rishard and Decker can end up with disappointing outputs – that I’ll likely fade the Titans’ wide receivers myself, in the hopes that they pull high ownership and yield disappointing scores.
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We can almost guarantee that Kizer will not be benched mid-game in this one – after Hogan performed so poorly, and with Kizer re-named the starter – and we should expect the Titans to build a lead. Outside of his dud against the Jets, Kizer struggled against two very good pass defenses in the Bengals and Ravens, while playing well against another very tough pass defense in the Steelers and posting 25.08 fantasy points in a matchup against the Colts that was similar to this one. Kizer can be relied on for two to three points with his legs (enough to offset the interceptions), with upside for a rushing touchdown. And while there is no reason we should expect it to be pretty, it will not be surprising if Kizer tops 200 yards and notches a couple scores through the air. The Titans’ defense is in play against Kizer, but keep in mind that Kizer – against a team that ranks 30th in sacks and 29th in passing touchdowns allowed – is in play as well.
Cowboys at 49ers
Highlighted Players: Dak Prescott, Dez Bryant, Ezekiel Elliott, Carlos Hyde, C.J. Beathard, Pierre Garcon, George Kittle, Marquise Goodwin – i.e., you’ll find the entire writeup for this game below
Vegas-Implied Total: Cowboys 26.25, 49ers 20.25
KEY MATCHUPS:
49ers Run D – 13th DVOA / 5th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O – 5th DVOA / 5th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D – 26th DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Cowboys Pass O – 13th DVOA / 23rd Yards per pass attempt
Cowboys Run D – 32nd DVOA / 25th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O – 25th DVOA / 14th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D – 23rd DVOA / 14th Yards allowed per pass attempt
49ers Pass O – 26th DVOA / 29th Yards per pass attempt
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This is one of the more sneaky-exciting games on the weekend, as the 49ers rank 11th in situation neutral pace of play and first in overall pace of play, while the Cowboys have picked up the tempo this year as well (and lowered their percentage of run plays – all a result of their offensive line underperforming this season). San Francisco ranks seventh in plays per game while Dallas ranks 16th. San Francisco is also allowing the most opponent plays per game in the NFL, with Dallas allowing the eighth-most opponent plays per game.
Further contributing to the potential for this game to turn into a shootout is the fact that the 49ers rank third in the NFL in passing play percentage, while the Cowboys rank a middling 16th, but are taking on a 49ers defense that has been very strong against the run while getting shredded by the pass.
The 49ers have allowed the third-most completions and the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL this year, setting up Dak for a great game. Dak has reached 36 or more pass attempts in all but one game this year, and he should hit that mark again – making him an excellent option if you want to pay up at quarterback.
Further benefitting us from a DFS perspective is the way the 49ers filter targets to wide receivers. In spite of seeing the sixth-most pass attempts in the NFL this year, the 49ers have seen the third-fewest targets to tight ends. The 49ers rank first in DVOA against the position, while ranking 23rd or worse against all three wide receiver positions. Dez Bryant ranks fifth in the NFL in percentage share of team air yards and seventh in targets per game. He also has the most targets in the NFL inside the 10-yard-line, and is due for some serious positive touchdown regression (with only one catch, and one touchdown, from inside the 10). After taking on Janoris Jenkins, Aqib Talib, and Patrick Peterson to begin the year, then being on bye last week, I expect Dez to go somewhat overlooked. He’s one of the top wide receiver plays on the slate.
I’m also a big fan of Ezekiel Elliott this week. Although the 49ers have been stout against the run, they have allowed the most targets and the most receptions in the NFL to running backs. Zeke has seen exactly five targets in three of five games this season, and he has seen 21 or more carries in four of five games. With his suspension looming and potentially set to take hold as soon as Week 8, I expect the Cowboys to feed him heavily in this game. San Francisco has allowed the 10th-most points per game in the NFL, and nearly all of the production should flow through Dak, Dez, and Zeke. I like all three guys quite a bit this week, and while the salary is tight, a three-man stack here has monster potential.
While the 49ers have allowed the 10th-most points per game in the NFL, the Cowboys have allowed the fourth-most points per game.
The Cowboys offer a good matchup for the 49ers all the way around, as they have been hit hard on the ground and through the air. The 49ers’ backfield is a little difficult to figure out, as Carlos Hyde jumped up to his highest snap rate of the season last week, one week after seeing his lowest snap rate (with rumors swirling after that game that the 49ers were shopping him). What we do know is that Hyde has the most carries in the NFL inside the five-yard-line, and while his floor has to be considered low (see: Week 5), his ceiling – between the goal line work and the six targets he has seen in four of six games this year – is as high as any running back on the slate.
Rivaling Brett Hundley this week (with both guys almost certainly standing above DeShone Kizer for me) is C.J. Beathard – a third-round rookie who had a sixth/seventh-round grade from most teams…but who Kyle Shanahan traded up to draft. Beathard played in a pro-style offense in college, and while he struggled in a number of areas in college (poor pocket awareness, poor accuracy on the deep ball, an inability to quickly progress through reads), these should not show up as big DFS deterrents in Week 7. The sacks – while a drawback – will not kill Beathard’s DFS production. The deep ball should not be a focal point against a Cowboys defense designed to filter targets underneath. And in a well-schemed system against a beatable zone defense, Beathard should be able to hit his first and second read often enough that his inability to progress won’t be a major issue. I like Beathard a lot this week – in tourneys, and possibly even in cash.
While I tend to avoid perimeter receivers against this year’s Cowboys scheme, the route tree Kyle Shanahan has Garcon running this year is a perfect pairing with the way the Cowboys play defense – with a lot of slants and short crossers. While Garcon has disappointed in four of six games this year, those came against Carolina (15th in pass defense DVOA – and “disappointing” was a still-respectable 6-81-0), Seattle (fifth in pass defense DVOA), Arizona (Patrick Peterson), and Washington (the second fewest wide receiver catches allowed in the NFL this year). Garcon is underpriced and has a high floor even if he “disappoints,” and he has upside for a huge effort in this one.
It is important to note that the Cowboys rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end after getting torched by the position last year…while George Kittle played with Beathard for four years in college. Kittle has 17 targets across the last two games – and in spite of just emerging a couple weeks ago, he already has four targets inside the 10-yard-line (tied for 11th-most in the NFL). Right above Kittle on that list is Marquise Goodwin, who quietly has five targets inside the 10 this year (it’s been so quiet, in fact, that Goodwin may not even know he’s been targeted, as he has zero catches). Goodwin is going to hit big one week. It would not surprise me if this is that week.
This is one of my favorite games on the slate for DFS production. The tourney upside in this spot is huge.
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This week offers lots of low-total games, which will require us to leave our comfort zone a bit as we dig around for suitable options.
Leave that Selk bag for a minute.
Step away from your fortress.
The sleeping bag will still be there later – but for now, join me in the attack.
Do that – and I’ll see you at the top of the leaderboards this weekend. If all goes well, we’ll have enough money when it’s all said and done to buy a hundred new sleeping bags to protect us.