DFS Alerts
Top Of A High End Offense
The Red Sox are facing a low strikeout lefty in Clayton Richard who is coming off the IL and backed a bad bullpen. Even when fully healthy, Richard’s only skill is moderate ground balls to righties, and Mookie Betts is not bothered by ground ball pitchers with his 46% fly balls and .264 ISO against lefties since the start of 2018. His low strikeouts and patience give him all kinds of on base upside in addition to his power. He is a top option in all formats, playable in cash games, as a one-off in tournaments as well as in Boston stacks.
Need The Savings
I don’t love Kendrys Morales, and I don’t like the Yankees overall quite as much as we have the past couple nights, but there are some obvious high end bats to spend on along with Stephen Strasburg at pitcher, so we need some savings where we can get hit. Dylan Bundy has side splits, striking out just 17% of left-handed batters. With Morales hitting in the middle of the lineup, he should have plenty of RBI opportunities, and as bad as his batting average looks, he still has an impressive 41% hard hit rate with just 15% K against righties this season, implying that better things are on the way.
Don't Overthink It
Stephen Strasburg stands out on this slate both in terms of skill set and matchup. He has been consistent this season with 7+ strikeouts in nine of his 10 starts, and his 32% strikeout rate and 15.2% swinging strikes are both career highs. On top of that, his ground balls are also at a career high 54%. He is dominating righties, and the Mets are without at least three of their four best left-handed bats. This is a don’t overthink it spot, play him in all formats.
High Upside GPP Stack
It’s been a while since we have seen Clayton Richard at the major league level, but he has long been a left-handed starter with massive differentials in his splits. For his major league career, Richard has allowed a .279 wOBA to lefties and a .354 wOBA to righties. There’s also a gigantic split in his hard contact rate, as he has held LHBs to a 23% hard contact rate compared to 36% for righties. Mookie Betts has elite splits against all types of pitchers, and while he has struggled against lefties so far this year, we can’t ignore his .380+ wOBA against them for his career, including .488 a year ago. It’s only a matter of time before we see him post a huge game against a lefty, and today could be the day. He should be the starting spot of any GPP stacks, while you can add Steve Pearce for value and the other middle of the order bats for upside.
Other tagged players: Xander Bogaerts, Michael Chavis, Steve Pearce
Risk/Reward SP #2 Choice
Dylan Bundy has a reputation as a gas can, but some of his advanced metrics indicate potential success, notably his solid 26.2% hard contact rate allowed this year to go along with a 13% swinging strike rate. The Yankees could very easily bust today, and their bats will carry high ownership. This provides a nice spot to get some leverage in multi-pitcher formats, especially with Bundy carrying some strikeout potential. I could see anywhere from a 0-30 (DK) or 0-40 (FD) fantasy point performance from Bundy today, and that makes him an intriguing GPP option.
Thursday Afternoon's Top Arm
In terms of a combination of safety and upside, Stephen Strasburg has to be the choice as your top pitcher this afternoon. The Mets rank just 20th in the league in team wOBA and 25th in ISO against RHP this year, and Strasburg has elite numbers across the board with a sub-3.00 SIERA and xFIP to go along with a 32% strikeout rate this year. A spike in ground balls this year has also helped solidifiy his floor on a start-to-start basis. Start your cash game builds with him today, and Strasburg is an elite option in any format.
The Giants have a 65 wRC+ at home and 66 wRC+ vs LHP
Players who don’t want to go to the top of the board for pitching tonight are probably looking at Max Fried, coming against six two-hit innings against the Brewers and gaining a substantial park and matchup upgrade in San Francisco tonight. The Giants have a 65 wRC+ and 8.7 HR/FB at home, along with a 66 wRC+, 24.6 K%, and 7.0 HR/FB vs LHP. Fried has missed bats at a perfectly league average rate (22.4 K%, 10.8 SwStr%) with excellent control (5.4 BB%) and a 54.5 GB%. While some of his estimators are a bit above his 2.86 ERA, a 2.83 DRA and 2.88 xwOBA (3.4% Barrels/BBE is best on the board) confirms the quality of his work. It would seem unlikely that the Giants will be able to do too much against him. While Fried may lack the upside of tonight’s top arms, his strikeout rate is up to 26.2% over the last month and he costs a reasonable $8.5K on DraftKings tonight.
LHBs have a .343 wOBA and 45.5 Hard% against Matt Harvey over the last 12 months
It took a while for the Minnesota offense to get going last night and they did the majority of their damage against a weak Angels’ pen, but the Twins did put up eight runs last night and are looking good again tonight against Matt Harvey (17 K%, 28.2 LD%, 6.35 ERA, 6.09 DRA, 5.07 SIERA, 90.4 mph aEV, .373 xwOBA). By any metric, he’s been really bad. Over the last calendar year, LHBs have really feasted against him (.343 wOBA, 45.5 Hard%). The Twins will likely have Max Kepler (107 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Jorge Polanco (148 wRC+, .202 ISO), Marwin Gonzalez (97 wRC+, .151 ISO) and Eddie Rosario (110 wRC+, .216 ISO) at the top of the lineup in order to take advantage of Harvey’s large platoon split.
Other tagged players: Jorge Polanco, Matt Harvey, Eddie Rosario, Marwin Gonzalez Cole, Scherzer, deGrom all above a 3.50 ERA with at least an 88 mph aEV
If you played the ownership game last time out and faded Jacob deGrom in Miami in favor of Gerrit Cole in Boston, congratulations. With deGrom (30.5 K%, 15.3 SwStr%, 3.25 SIERA, 2.40 DRA, .279 xwOBA), Max Scherzer (32.1 K%, 16 SwStr%, 2.95 SIERA, 2.73 DRA, .291 xwOBA) and Cole (38.3 K%, 16 SwStr%, 2.55 SIERA, 2.99 DRA, .261 xwOBA), you’re essentially dealing with the same upside. Selections are going to be based on matchup, cost and ownership. Cole may have a higher strikeout rate this year, but averages a batter or two less per game than the other two. All three have experiences some drawbacks this season too with ERAs above 3.5 runs and average exit velocities of at least 88 mph. As you can see though, estimators remain extremely optimistic on all three pitchers and how can they not be when striking out one-third of batters faced. Tonight, deGrom and Scherzer face each other with conditions and umpiring expected to be pitcher friendly in an extremely negative run environment. Houston can match New York for run environment, but it’ll be more controlled with the ability to close the roof. However, Mr. Cole will be dealing with the worst umpiring situation (Weather Edge and Umpire ratings both available to premium subscribers). He does have the highest upside matchup. The White Sox have a 26.5 K% vs RHP, but be sure to check strikeout rates for specific lineups after confirmation. Looking at cost tonight, Cole is actually much more expensive than the other two with deGrom being the most affordable tonight. After his gaff in Miami last time out, deGrom could be the best value of the three and the best play assuming similar ownership rates.
Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole LHBs have an xwOBA (.336) that's 84 points higher than actual against Yonny Chirinos
Yonny Chirinos threw 4.2 shutout innings at Yankee Stadium last time out, but struck out just two and his 3.26 ERA is not supported by estimators, all of which are at least a full run higher. Over the last month, he has just a 12.8 K%. This is a pitcher the Dodgers may be able to get to today and he’ll likely go through the order twice. The most interesting aspect of Chirino’s profile has been a .252 wOBA against LHBs over the last calendar year, despite a 45.6 Hard% and 37.1 GB% that pushes his xwOBA up over 80 points (.336). Tampa Bay is a negative run environment, but that’s never stopped Dodger bats. Joc Pederson (157 wRC+, .376 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Max Muncy (160 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Cody Bellinger (180 wRC+, .298 ISO) have destroyed RHP and all project to be in the top half of tonight’s lineup. Pederson and Muncy each cost less than $3.5K on FanDuel too.
Other tagged players: Max Muncy, Cody Bellinger, Yonny Chirinos Aaron Sanchez has a 4.88 SIERA, 6.38 DRA and .367 xwOBA all much worse than his 3.88 ERA
Aaron Sanchez has missed bats at a perfectly league average rate this year, but his 12.8 BB% is a major problem and can be seen in a 43.4 Z-O-Swing% that’s second worst on the board. Batters are just not extending the zone against him. As a result, while his ERA is below four (3.88), his estimators are all quite a bit higher, including a 4.88 SIERA, 6.38 DRA and .367 xwOBA backed by a 90.4 mph aEV and 46.2% 95+ mph EV. With three teams well above their 4.96 run line tonight, Boston bats could fly a bit more under the radar than usual. While Sanchez has garnered a reputation as a ground ball pitcher, that hasn’t been so much the case over the last calendar year, in which RHBs are just about league average (44.6%) against him in that department. Batters from either side reach at least a .350 xwOBA against him over that span as well. Michael Chavis (143 wRC+, .213 ISO) joins Mookie Betts (164 wRC+, .236 ISO) and J.D. Martinez (146 wRC+, .230 ISO) as the only Boston bats above a 140 wRC+ and .200 ISO vs RHP over the last calendar year. Andrew Benintendi (125 wRC+, .170 ISO), Mitch Moreland (106 wRC+, .243 ISO), Xander Bogaerts (129 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Rafael Devers (123 wRC+, .216 ISO) are all above average bats as well.
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, JD Martinez, Aaron Sanchez, Mitch Moreland, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Michael Chavis Stack Up The Twins
The Twins are my favorite stack tonight against the righty Matt Harvey. The Twins as a team are 1st in ISO and 3rd in wOBA to right handed pitching. Harvey has struggled all year with lefties, giving up a .273 ISO and 55% hard hit rate. This Twins team has a bunch of strong lefty bats to attack Harvey. I will be targeting Kepler, Rossario, Polanco and Castro in my stack.
Stack Up The Twins
The Twins are my favorite stack tonight against the righty Matt Harvey. The Twins as a team are 1st in ISO and 3rd in wOBA to right handed pitching. Harvey has struggled all year with lefties, giving up a .273 ISO and 55% hard hit rate. This Twins team has a bunch of strong lefty bats to attack Harvey. I will be targeting Kepler, Rossario and Polanco in my stack.
Stack Up The Twins
The Twins are my favorite stack tonight against the righty Matt Harvey. The Twins as a team are 1st in ISO and 3rd in wOBA to right handed pitching. Harvey has struggled all year with lefties, giving up a .273 ISO and 55% hard hit rate. This Twins team has a bunch of strong lefty bats to attack Harvey. I will be targeting Kepler, Rossario and Polanco in my stack.
Stack Up The Twins
The Twins are my favorite stack tonight against the righty Matt Harvey. The Twins as a team are 1st in ISO and 3rd in wOBA to right handed pitching. Harvey has struggled all year with lefties, giving up a .273 ISO and 55% hard hit rate. This Twins team has a bunch of strong lefty bats to attack Harvey. I will be targeting Kepler, Rossario and Polanco in my stack.