DFS Alerts
Cheap, Leading Off, Decent Pop
Brandon Drury was part of the Blue Jays tragic Opening Day offensive performance as they allowed the washed up Jordan Zimmermann take a perfect game into the seventh inning. Drury ended the game 1-for-4 with a single but his lineup position was notable as he led off for the Jays. In all likelihood, Drury will find himself in the leadoff spot once again for the Blue Jays as Matthew Boyd toes the rubber for the Tigers. Drury doesn’t project to be much of an offensive threat but has shown competence against left handed pitching in the past with a career .320 wOBA and .182 ISO against southpaws. That’s decent pop for someone this cheap and Drury is my preferred value option at the third base position.
Everything Lines Up Here
We don’t know yet if German Marquez is going to be able to pick up where he left off from his incredible second half of 2018. After the All-Star Break last season, he had a 33.9% K rate with just 5.5% walks, leading to a 2.61 ERA and 2.30 xFIP. Even if those numbers back way off, a matchup in Miami for a guy with strong splits agaimst right-handed bats is tough to ignore. This Marlins lineup is just bad, with only one hitter who had an ISO above .155 against righties in 2018. In addition, they have no more than three left-handed batters, and Marquez was elite against righties all season with a 34.7% K rate, 5.8% walks and 53% ground balls.
The Top Of The Heap
There is a lot of good pitching tonight, and plenty of upside to chase in tournaments. But, it all comes with a lot of risk. Every pitcher has some level of risk, especially in the first start of the year, but Gerrit Cole is in a league of his own tonight, and my clear top choice in cash games, as well as my top tournament option where I can find the salary space. His 34.5% strikeout rate in 2018 was just a fraction of a percent below Verlander and Scherzer for the 3rd best mark in the league. He posted an absurd 41% strikeout rate against lefties and should face at least five lefties tonight along with three high strikeout righties, all in a good pitching environment for his fly ball lean.
Contrarian Options On The Opening Day Showdown Slate
Tonight’s island game features the World Series champion Red Sox on the road against the 2-0 Mariners. Rostering anyone who steps into the batter’s box against Chris Sale is never a smart DFS move, but since a Mariner has to make it into your lineup tonight, there are two options in particular that make sense. Since left-handed hitters usually stand no chance against Sale (.030 ISO, .196 wOBA, 38.8% K-rate vs. LHB in 2018), rostering a right-handed bat seems logical despite Sale’s dominant numbers against that handedness as well (.125 ISO, .245 wOBA, 38.4% K-rate vs. RHB). Due to his minimum salary, catcher David Freitas (.088 ISO, .284 wOBA vs. LHP in 2018) might make sense out of the eight hole as a salary-saving punt (game theory), but Mitch Haniger (.219 ISO, .365 wOBA) and Edwin Encarnation (.247 ISO, .356 wOBA) are hitting leadoff and third respectively and both possess a considerable amount of pop. In the other dugout, the Sox face left-hander Marco Gonzalez and the usual suspects will be ultra-chalky. Mookie Betts (.271 ISO, .441 wOBA vs. LHP in 2018), J.D. Martinez (.315 ISO, .443 wOBA) and Xander Bogaerts (.259 ISO, .381 wOBA) all grade out as phenomenal plays, but they will break the bank. Last season, Gonzalez fared similarly against righties and lefties (.147 ISO, .312 wOBA vs. RHB, .132 ISO, .301 wOBA vs. LHB), but struggled to strike out left-handers (14.9% compared to 22.5% vs. RHB). Therefore, Andrew Benintendi (.181 ISO, .378 wOBA vs. LHP in 2018), Rafael Devers (.219 ISO, .335 wOBA) and even Mitch Moreland (.204 ISO, .337 wOBA) or Jackie Bradley Jr. (.186 ISO, .334 wOBA) are viable options in what should be another prolific offensive attack for the reigning champs in 2019. All four left-handers in Boston’s lineup grade out as better plays than Christian Vazquez (.076 ISO, .232 wOBA), who couldn’t touch southpaw pitching last year.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Marco Gonzales, Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, David Freitas, Edwin Encarnacion, Mitch Haniger, Jackie Bradley
CHW-KCR will be delayed due to rain, first pitch expected at 5pm ET
The start of the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Kansas City Royals on Thursday afternoon will be delayed due to rain. As of the now, the first pitch is scheduled for 5 pm eastern time, but the Royals have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is potentially better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Carlos Rodon not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, there’s still a line of heavy rain that could pass over the stadium later in the game and another delay or possible postponement cannot entirely be ruled out.
As reported by: Scot Gregor via Twitter
Starling Marte (migraine) scratched Thursday; J.B. Shuck replaces
Marte has been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates original confirmed lineup and will not start in Thursday’s season opener against the Cincinnati Reds due to a migraine. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by J.B. Shuck, who will now patrol center field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Melky Cabrera all the way up to the two-hole. However, the remainder of the Pirates lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Luis Castillo on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: the Pittsburgh Pirates via Twitter Other tagged players: J.B. Shuck Stellar Pitching Matchup In West Coast Divisional Battle
Thanks to Clayton Kershaw’s injury, Hyun-Jin Ryu will get the Opening Day nod for the Dodgers and he’s in a mouth-watering spot against the new-look Diamondbacks. Last season, Ryu was dominant, posting a 3.31 XFIP, 27.6% K-rate and elite 46.6% ground ball rate. Utilizing his four-pitch mix, Ryu limited hitters from both sides of the plate last year (.132 ISO, .319 wOBA vs. LHB in 2018, .145 ISO, .261 wOBA vs. RHB) and will square off against a lineup that has a solid shot of playing into his strengths. Not counting the pitcher spot, five of the eight projected D-Backs position players had ground ball rates north of 50% against southpaws last season and now that Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock are gone, lefties David Peralta (.162 ISO, .303 wOBA vs. LHP in 2018) and Jake Lamb (.064 ISO, .227 wOBA) will likely be asked to play every day. Priced as the SP14 on FanDuel for their 1:00pm EST lock main slate, Ryu should fly under the radar and could end up as one of the highest-scoring pitchers of the slate.
Double-Digit Strikeout Potential In The Bronx
If you assumed Andrew Cashner was the subject of this note, you are sadly mistaken. Masahiro Tanaka will start Opening Day against the Orioles, who are trotting out a glorified Triple-A caliber roster. Let’s take a look at Baltimore’s 3-7 hitters: Jonathan Villar (.117 ISO, .311 wOBA, 25.8% K-rate vs. RHP in 2018), Trey Mancini (.188 ISO, .319 wOBA, 25.8% K-rate), Rio Ruiz (.000 ISO, .198 wOBA, 33.3% K-rate in 15 AB), Joey Rickard (.143 ISO, .295 wOBA, 20.8% K-rate) and the all-mighty Chris Davis (.124 ISO, .253 wOBA, 36.7% K-rate). Jesus Sucre and rookie Richie Martin round out the bottom two spots in the order. Although New York’s stellar bullpen will not require Aaron Boone to push Tanaka this season, he has double-digit strikeout potential in this one, even if he’s limited to five or six innings on the hill. Last season, he struck out 25.0% of his opponents and had an elite 5.5% walk rate. His “stuff” was sensational, as evidenced by the fact that opposing hitters swung at 36.3% of his pitches outside of the zone. We will want to pick on this Orioles lineup all season long and Opening Day is certainly no exception, even in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium. Since the Bombers are massive favorites, Tanaka should fully be expected to not only dominate, but also earn a win in this contest, boosting his DFS outlook. He won’t come cheap, but he has similar scoring potential to higher-priced aces like Max Scherzer, Jacob DeGrom, Justin Verlander and company.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini, Chris Davis, Rio Ruiz, Joey Rickard, Jesus Sucre, Richie Martin Lead Off Savings
With Brett Gardner in the leadoff spot for the Yankees on Opening Day, I’m switching from Jesse Winker to Gardner as my Core Plays cheap OF on FanDuel. I prefer Winker overall as a hitter, but the matchup is just better for these Yankees against Andrew Cashner and a bad Orioles bullpen.
Potential For Sneaky Lefty-On-Lefty Hitting Production
If last season was an indication, it appears as though Jon Lester’s tenure as a high-quality ace is a thing of the past. Striking out 19.6% of his opponents and posting a 4.56 XFIP, Lester’s platoon splits were almost as shocking as the fact that he can’t throw a pickoff to first base as a lefty. Lester was solid against right-handed hitters in 2018, allowing a .131 ISO and .306 wOBA. However, he was tormented by lefties (.243 ISO, .383 wOBA). Not only will the Rangers welcome Lester to their hitter-friendly confines, but they will likely feature four left-handed hitters who pose risks to southpaw hurlers. Joey Gallo (.274 ISO, .352 wOBA against LHP last season) stands out as the clear top option due to his power upside, but Shin-Soo Choo (.208 ISO, .389 wOBA) also performed effectively against lefties last season. Rougned Odor (.201 ISO, .337 wOBA) and Nomar Mazara (.174 ISO, .343 wOBA) also grade out as viable options in the anti-platoon strategy against Lester, but Gallo possesses the highest upside by a considerable amount based on his multi-HR upside. This spot may go relatively overlooked due to the presumed lefty-on-lefty disadvantage, but rostering any of the four above in tournaments could get you exposure to this game and its high projected total while avoiding right-handed shortstop Elvis Andrus (.092 ISO, .284 wOBA), who Chris Gimino projects as one of the chalkiest options on the Opening Day slate.
Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, Elvis Andrus Revitalized Lineup Hosts Regressing Veteran Ace
In Spring Training, Giants ace Madison Bumgarner allowed 35 hits in 20.2 innings and sported an 8.27 ERA. Due to the small sample size, those numbers shouldn’t be solely relied upon, but also shouldn’t be completely ignored, either. Even facing inferior, minor-league caliber hitters at times, Bumgarner’s inability to limit hard contact was an exaggerated extension of his 2018 regular-season issue. (Last season, he allowed a 42.2% hard hit rate.) Despite the concerns, MadBum will once again take the hill on Opening Day, but will be doing so against the revitalized Padres. Lefty-mashers Manny Machado (.244 ISO, .384 wOBA vs. LHP in 2018) and Hunter Renfroe (.265 ISO, .340 wOBA) stand out as fantastic options as one-offs while Ian Kinsler (.170 ISO, .329 wOBA), Franmil Reyes (.202 ISO, .326), Wil Myers (.170 ISO, .317 wOBA) and Austin Hedges (.201 ISO, .313 wOBA) are also fine plays, as is Fernando Tatis Jr., who is poised to make his MLB debut. If Bumgarner cannot create swings and misses and/or generate soft contact, it could get ugly fast, especially since Eric Hosmer (.167 ISO, .361 wOBA) projects as the only left-handed hitter in the entire Padres lineup. This could be the beginning of the end for Bumgarner and will be the start of a new beginning for the Padres, who will be incentivized to make a statement in front of their home fans.
Other tagged players: Madison Bumgarner, Hunter Renfroe, Ian Kinsler, Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes, Austin Hedges, Fernando Tatis Offseason Addition Bolsters NL Contender’s Lineup
Coming off of an injury-ridden campaign, Daniel Murphy will take over at first base for Colorado and is poised for a bounce-back year (hello, Coors Field). Fully healthy once again and surrounded by the likes of Charlie Blackmon (.236 ISO, .377 wOBA vs. RHP in 2018), Nolan Arenado (.211 ISO, .352 wOBA) and Trevor Story (.238 ISO, .367 wOBA), Murphy (.191 ISO, .373 wOBA) has a solid chance to be involved in steady run production against Jose Urena (4.61 FIP, 18.2% K-rate last season) and the lowly Marlins bullpen on Opening Day. He’s priced up at $4,900 on DK, but comes in at just $3,300 on FD, where he grades out as one of the top mid-range options. Urena struck out just 16.1% of his left-handed opponents last season and allowed a hard contact rate of 40.6%. Murphy’s elite ability to make contact with the ball against right-handed pitchers (9.5% K-rate in 2018 — next-best on his team is Blackmon at 19.5%) and his general aggressiveness (5.7% walk rate against RHP— lowest on the Rockies) make him an appealing option on today’s slate, as does the fact that the Rockies are on the road and will see 9th inning at bats regardless of the score. He works as a one-off or as a part of a stack with the potential to put up crooked numbers.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story Pivot With High-Strikeout Upside At A Discount
Based on his pristine Spring Training numbers and plus-matchup against the Giants, expect Eric Lauer (4.80 XFIP, 19.8% K-rate in 2018) to be somewhat popular on two-pitcher sites today. As the second-cheapest starting pitcher on DraftKings ($5,800), Lauer is sure to receive consideration, and rightfully so. However, Angels ace Trevor Cahill ($6,300 on DK) presents an opportunity to pivot off of Lauer and seemingly has more upside due to his proven ability to strike out hitters. Last season, Cahill struck out 22.2% of his opponents and got them to chase pitches out of the strike zone with ease (29.3% of his total strikes thrown were swings and misses outside the zone). The Athletics, who he started for on Opening Day last year, are a fantastic matchup for Cahill. Four of the hitters in Oakland’s projected lineup have strikeout rates of 25.8 or above (Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Nick Hundley). A third of their hitters had walk rates of 6.6% or less (Stephen Piscotty, Pinder, Laureano), an aggression that should play right into Cahill’s hands. Although he struggled to stay healthy throughout his career and rarely went deep into games last season, he enters the 2019 campaign fully healthy and ready to go. Of course Davis (.315 ISO, .380 wOBA in 2018) and company have the ability to tag him for a few runs, but if Cahill generates swings and misses like he has in the past, it’ll be easy to look past the earned runs and smile at the upside presented by the Ks.
Other tagged players: Eric Lauer, Khris Davis, Chad Pinder, Ramon Laureano, Nick Hundley, Stephen Piscotty Start Your Season With An Ace
Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer were 1st and 2nd in strikeout rate in 2018 among qualified starters at 34.8% K and 34.6% K. Verlander is the lone top tier ace on the DK Main Slate, making for an easy choice if spending up. On FD, where Scherzer and Jacob deGrom also appear, it’s the matchup in Tampa that sets Verlander apart. He will be in a pitcher friendly ballpark facing a Rays team that projects to be one of the highest strikeout lineups in the AL. Verlander will be the first pitcher I click into my cash game lineups this season.
Worth Every Penny
Mike Trout cashed in this off-season with a $430 million contract, and he’s worth the money both in real life and in DFS. If paying all the way up for an Opening Day batter, it’s either Trout or Bryce Harper. I side with Trout, based on Harper’s high likelihood of walks against Julio Teheran. Trout is more likely to see a pitch to hit against the strike throwing Mike Fiers. Trout had the highest ISO in the league against right-handed pitching last season at .338 along with a .467 wOBA.