DFS Alerts
Following Up A Breakout
The Cubs are in one of the prime hitting spots on Opening Day, travelling to Texas to face Mike Minor and the Rangers sub-par bullpen. Minor is a pitcher who is always around the strike zone, allowing the ball to be hit hard and in the air. Javier Baez and teammate Kris Bryant are the right-handed power bats to start with for Chicago. Both of these Cubs righties had high hard hit rates, line drives and wOBA’s over .400 against lefties in 2018. The salary difference on DK has me leaning to Baez, while I am happy with either on FD.
Lead It Off With Some Savings
I didn’t expect to have Jesse Winker as an Opening Day Core Play, but his salary is just too cheap, and will help us be able to afford players like Verlander and Trout. Jameson Taillon is a good pitcher, but still with wide enough splits that we can play some lefties against him. It’s still a somewhat small sample size, but in 374 career PA against right-handed pitching, Winker has a low 13.9% K rate and high 13.6% walks leading to a .421 OBP. It’s not just the plate discipline, when he hits it, it’s with authority, carrying a 44% hard hit rate. Too cheap for a talented leadoff hitter on a good team.
The Game To Target
Yes, I realize I have two shortstops tagged in Core Plays. Javier Baez is the first option, but if you want to have Verlander and Trout together in lineups, you may need to skip down to the other side of the Cubs-Rangers game. Elvis Andrus will hit near the middle of the Rangers lineup against the fading Jon Lester who is unlikely to see the same good fortune this season. He struck out just 19.1% of righties in 2018 and has lost all of his ground ball ability. Andrus had an injury riddled season, but was still a tough out against lefties striking out just 13.3% of the time. Over the past two seasons, he has a .342 wOBA and .184 ISO against LHP and should see both run and RBI opportunities with his lineup spot.
The Top Opening Day Arm
Verlander has truly re-transformed himself into a high quality ace at the MLB level again, and he draws a great matchup against a Rays lineup that looks like a glorified AAA group at this point. There are plenty of free swingers in the mix, and Verlander should rack up a high strikeout total. He has the best combination of safety and upside on the board. His 4% walk rate and 34% strikeout rate last year were remarkable numbers, and he should get off to a good start in Tampa.
Sneaky Upside
If you haven’t been following Spring Training closely, make sure you keep tabs on the Indians heading into Opening Day. Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis are both starting the season on the injured list, and Jose Ramirez was carted off with an injury on Sunday in the final spring training game. This might be a severely depleted lineup to start the year, and this is a sneaky good spot to target Jose Berrios in GPP formats. The Indians might be exploitable in the early going via opposing hurlers. Berrios has a ton of talent but has struggled to put it together at the MLB level, and I love him as a GPP option here.
Great Spot For Opening Day Offense
The Cubs are clearly going to be one of the top offenses on Opening Day, as they draw a great game environment in Texas and a matchup against Mike Minor, who might be the worst hurler on the mound on this slate. Minor had an xFIP over 4.50 and allowed an alarming amount of hard contact last year, and this Cubs offense is capable of taking advantage with several power hitters who are capable of smashing against left-handed pitching. Give the stack a long look in this spot.
Other tagged players: Javier Baez, Willson Contreras Top Bat On The All Day Slate
Bryce Harper is the obvious answer as a top choice for the all day FanDuel slate and the early afternoon DraftKings slate for Opening Day. He draws a matchup against a pitcher in Julio Teheran who has always struggled against left-handed hitters. It’s a great matchup for Harper and for BvP truthers, as Harper is 18-for-40 (.450 average) with eight home runs in his career against Teheran. If you want to stack it up, feel free to load up on any Philadelphia bat that hits from the left side. This whole lineup should improve in 2019 thanks to the presence of Harper in the middle. He’s a difference-maker.
Don't Sleep On This West Coast Offense
The Angels are one of my favorite sneaky stacks on this slate, and they are definitely capable of doing damage against Mike Fiers. While Fiers had success at times last year, he doesn’t fit the profile of an Opening Day starter, and the Angels have a nice combination of high upside (Trout, Upton), and affordable potential (Simmons, Bour) in their lineup. I’ll happily be overweight on all these bats, especially in GPP stacking situations against a pitcher that allowed hard contact almost 40% of the time in 2018.
Other tagged players: Andrelton Simmons, Justin Bour Sneaky Large-Field Tournament Stack Against Reigning Cy Young Award Winner
It’s fair to assume that most Opening Day tournament lineups will avoid stacking against former Cy Young award winners. It’s also fair to assume that nearly all Opening Day tournament lineups will avoid stacking against a reigning Cy Young award winner. The Astros are in an intriguing spot against Rays ace Blake Snell today. The core of their lineup is priced up to reflect their talent despite the tough matchup. On the plus side, that will almost certainly guarantee low ownership of one of the MLB’s top offenses. Snell shut down left-handed hitters last season (.087 ISO, .186 wOBA) and fared well against righties (.131 ISO, .263 wOBA) but will be tasked with facing perhaps the best right-handed core in the game. Alex Bregman (.243 ISO, .393 wOBA) ate lefties for dinner last season and stands out as the top overall play in Houston’s lineup while George Springer (.161 ISO, .333 wOBA), Jose Altuve (.141 ISO, .378 wOBA) and Carlos Correa (.181 ISO, .309 wOBA) are all proven, All-Star caliber players. Tyler White (.245 ISO, .352 wOBA) grades out as a phenomenal value play ($2,500 on FD, $3,300 on DK) the bottom of the order based on his proficiency against southpaws, as does catcher Robinson Chirinos (.198 ISO, .335 wOBA) based on the positional scarcity and his price tag ($2,700 on FD, $3,000 on DK). Perhaps what’s most damning for Snell is that he threw his fastball at a 51.6% clip last season. Over the last three seasons, here’s what the aforementioned players have done against that particular pitch thrown by left-handers: Bregman (.268 ISO, .379 wOBA), Springer (.364 ISO, .478 wOBA), Altuve (.252 ISO, .397 wOBA), Correa (.152 ISO, .360 wOBA), White (.342 ISO, .443 wOBA), Chirinos (.235 ISO, .336 wOBA). Stacking up the Astros is certainly risky since Snell is coming off of a magical season and the contest will be played at pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field, but the numbers suggest that Houston has a solid shot at spoiling the reigning AL Cy Young winner’s season debut.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Blake Snell, George Springer, Tyler White, Robinson Chirinos
Slate-Breaking Potential From Young Ace In Friendly Confines
Last season, Jose Berrios (3.99 XFIP, 25.3% K-rate) flashed glimpses of his immense potential. In just his second full campaign at the Major League level, he also emerged as a fantastic daily fantasy tournament play due to his yin-yang of general inconsistency and dominant strikeout upside (Chris Archer 2.0). Squaring off against the Indians to kick off the new campaign may seem daunting on paper, but the 24 year old has shown a massive preference for pitching at home in Minnesota over the course of his young career. For context, in 2018, he compiled a 3.03 ERA while allowing just 78 hits (6 HR) and striking out 118 over 107.0 innings at home and allowed 19 HR while striking out 84 in 85.1 innings with a 4.85 ERA on the road. Luckily for him, this Indians team is a major regression candidate due to the lack of talent in their lineup (at least to start the year). Francisco Lindor and Jason Kipnis are injured. Edwin Encarnacion and Yonder Alonso got traded in the offseason. Therefore, this is a completely different club. Outside of stud Jose Ramirez (.315 ISO, .422 wOBA last season), Cleveland’s lineup does not feature another player who posted an ISO mark north of .198 last year (Jake Bauers) and three of their hitters posted wOBAs of less than .300. Oh, and the icing on the cake? Career minor leaguer Eric Stamets is slated to fill in for Lindor and is expected to bat in the nine-hole in his Major League debut. The 27 year old slashed .202/.272/.324 over 78 games at the Triple-A level last season, so it’s fair to assume that he might struggle against the world’s top talent. Although Cleveland’s lineup will feature a healthy mix of batters in terms of handedness, it’s also worth noting that Berrios was effective against hitters from both sides of the plate last season (.304 wOBA, .164 ISO in 415 PA against LHB, .286 wOBA, .137 ISO in 382 PA against RHB) and actually struck out lefties at a higher rate than righties (26.5% vs. 24.1%). Therefore, all the ingredients are in the mix for Berrios to make an Opening Day statement. As the SP13 on FanDuel ($8,900), he stands out as a fantastic play while he still offers upside as the SP6 on DraftKings ($9,000), a clean $2,000 discount from Justin Verlander.
Looked Great In Spring Training
We have a lot of great top options for pitchers on Opening Day, with very little value options. Eric Lauer is likely going to be popular because of the limited options, and I really don’t mind it. This is a really good ballpark for pitchers, and the Giants still feature a left-handed heavy lineup. Lauer isn’t a big strikeout pitcher, but he does limit the damage with a high groundball rate. The projected starting lineup for the Giants had a .139 ISO with a .322 wOBA against left-handed pitching in 2018.
Upside At Low Ownership
I love to take chances on Opening Day, and while I don’t like looking too much into Spring Training, I think we have a few notes to look at for Luis Castillo. He started the season terrible last season and has really struggled in Spring Training this season. Castillo is a guy I like, but I think I’m going to take a few shots against him on Opening Day. From 2016-2017, Jung-Ho Kang had a .267 ISO with a .379 wOBA and a 38.8% hard-hit rate against righties. When not striking out in the Spring, Kang crushed the ball, and I really like his upside in this ballpark at this price.
Opening Day Home Run Upside
Jordan Zimmerman had a really tough season in 2018, and I’m going to pick on him Opening Day. Zimmerman had a .221 ISO with a 42.9% hard-hit rate, and a 45% fly ball rate against right-handed hitters in 2018. Grichuk should hit third on Opening Day and has a really great price tag. He had a .268 ISO with a 35.9% hard-hit rate. I like the upside for the Blue Jays and could see multiple home runs from this team.
Top bats and value plays for Monday
Quality of opposing pitcher doesn’t seem to matter much as Mookie Betts (176 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP) and J.D. Martinez (174 wRC+, .315 ISO) are both almost always going to be two of the top overall bats on the board. 2018 breakouts Max Muncy (169 wRC+, .334 ISO) and Luke Voit (174 wRC+, .301 ISO) both join them as two of the top bats against RHP this year, though the latter still with a fairly small sample size. Francisco Lindor (168 wRC+, .240 ISO) is the top bat on the board against the LHP he faces today. Tyler Flowers (203 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP) would also be an interesting catcher piece should he bat in the middle of the Atlanta order.
Daily Bullpen Alert: Two clear attack spots
There are two clear weak bullpen spots on today’s post-season slate. The Braves ended the season with a 4.87 FIP and 3.3 K-BB% rolling 30 day performance, while the Red Sox were only a bit better (4.65 FIP, 13.1 K-BB%). Both are facing the most powerful and probably deepest lineups on the slate in the Dodgers and Yankees. Starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz has already struggled against this lineup. Nathan Eovaldi averages the lowest innings per start on the board. We could see a lot of both pens on Monday.