DFS Alerts

Daily Bullpen Alert: Just one spot of interest on a pitching heavy board

There are three major league bullpens exceeding a five FIP over the last 30 days and unfortunately for everyone, the Royals are off tonight, but the Mets (5.81 FIP, 8.5 K-BB%) and Angels (5.43 FIP, 14.5 K-BB%) are both in play. Steven Matz is also the only pitcher on a star studded pitching slate averaging less than 5.1 innings per start (more than two starts), while the Mets also emptied the top part of their bullpen in an extra-inning win against the Phillies last night (except for Seth Lugo, who is now on two days rest after throwing 55 pitches on Monday. The Angels have a healthy K-BB% and Tyler Skaggs is averaging 5.2 innings per start. The only other situation worth monitoring here is Wade Miley’s return. He hasn’t faced more than 16 batters in a rehab start. The Brewers have a 3.84 FIP and 14.9 K-BB% over the last month, but there’s a clear top and bottom of that bullpen. To confuse players even more, Josh Hader (38.4 K-BB%) has pitched just once over the last 10 days and was lit up by the Marlins on Monday (1.2 IP – 9 BF – 4 H – 2 R – 2 HR – 1 BB – 2 K).

DraftKings has under-priced a few pitchers tonight

There’s so much quality pitching on Thursday night that players don’t necessarily have to use a $10K+ arm even though they account for more than one-third of the board. There are also some nice SP2 bargains for DraftKings tonight. Jameson Taillon (22.2 K%, 3.81 SIERA, .292 xwOBA) is one of just two pitchers to reach a 50% ground ball rate tonight (exactly 50%). He manages contact well with a league average strikeout rate and costs an absurd $5.7K on DraftKings against the Brewers tonight (85 wRC+, 25.2 K% vs RHP). Ross Stripling (28.7 K%, 2.78 SIERA, .244 xwOBA) has the lowest aEV (85.8 mph) on the board. While the strikeout rate has come down over the last month, it’s still at 25.8% with a 2.84 SIERA that’s virtually identical to his season rate. He costs just above $9K against the Padres (81 wRC+, 26.1 K% vs RHP). Tyler Skaggs (26.4 K%, 3.48 SIERA, .305 xwOBA) has increased his strikeout rate over the last month (29.7%) and has not allowed more than a single earned run in five straight starts. He faces a tough opponent in the Mariners (109 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs LHP), but in a favorable park for just $7.7K on DraftKings. Steven Matz (21.4 K%, 4.23 SIERA, .312 xwOBA) may be a pitcher players are looking to attack tonight, but he has a board topping 52 GB% with an 87 mph aEV that’s fourth best on the board. The Nationals have a 90 wRC+, 22.9 K%, and 11.7 HR/FB vs LHP (not terrible, but nothing special), while he costs just $5.9K on DraftKings.

Thursday night's board is loaded with All-Star pitchers and Cy Young contenders

Just seven games on the Thursday night slate, yet five pitchers exceed $10K on both sites and just one team (Boston) has a run line above 4.40 tonight. Nine teams are at 3.9 runs or below. Similar to last night, but to an even more extreme extent, it might be easier to suggest the few pitchers that players shouldn’t consider. Creativity will be necessary. Max Scherzer (35.4 K%, 2.62 SIERA, .261 xwOBA) is the most expensive pitcher on either site, the best pitcher on the board and perhaps the top value among the high priced arms in a fantastic spot at Citi Field. The Mets have a 77 wRC+, 23.9 K% and 8.3 HR/FB at home and have placed nearly every veteran hitter they have on the DL. Over the last seven days, they have a team 41 wRC+, 25.6 K% and 5.8 HR/FB. James Paxton (32.4 K%, 2.94 SIERA, .296 xwOBA) is the second most expensive pitcher on DraftKings, but fifth on FanDuel. He actually has the highest aEV (89.4 mph) on the board and is facing a predominantly right-handed lineup with a 19.8 K% vs LHP. However, the Angels have just an 85 wRC+ vs LHP this year, a 15.6 K-BB% over the last seven days and were shut down by another Seattle southpaw last night. Paxton also has a reverse split, but he’s not seen the Angels yet this year. Corey Kluber (25.6 K%, 3.13 SIERA, .286 xwOBA) is the cheapest of the five on DraftKings, $1K less than his price on FanDuel. He’s been struggling somewhat. Despite seven shutout innings in two of his last five starts, he’s only struck out more than three twice over that span with a high of seven and has allowed a total of 13 runs in the other three starts. This is confusing because his velocity is fine and though his 10.7 SwStr% for the season is much lower than last year, it matches his 10.5% mark over the last month in which his K% has dropped more than six points. He also hosts the Yankees (112 wRC+, 16.6 HR/FB vs RHP) in one of two highly positive run environments in play tonight. On the one hand, Corey Kluber is too cheap on DraftKings. On the other, do expectations need to be adjusted significantly right now? Luis Severino (29.8 K%, 3.08 SIERA, 2.93 xwOBA) is on the other side of that tough matchup (Indians 124 wRC+, 19 K%, 15 HR/FB at home, 20.8 K%, 14.2 HR/FB vs RHP) as the second most expensive FanDuel pitcher, fourth most on DraftKings. He allowed three runs in a start for only the fifth time this season (first outing with multiple HRs) last time out in Toronto. His strikeout rate is down a couple of points too over the last month, but also while his 12+ SwStr% has remained consistent. The easy out on Blake Snell (28.8 K%, 3.59 SIERA, .295 xwOBA) is a concerning weather forecast. He is in a great spot (Twins 86 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.3 HR/FB vs LHP) and has the “pissed off he didn’t make the All-Star team” narrative going for him if that’s a thing you put stock in. He’s allowed 1 run over his last 21.1 IP with 29 strikeouts (35.8%), but he’s also walked at least three in four of his last five starts (14.4%).

Save Money Somewhere

There are not a lot of great hitting situations tonight, and while it’s certainly not great for the Brewers, their lefties should have the advantage over the big splits of Jameson Taillon. Taillon is an elite-level pitcher to righties, but against lefties he carries a below average 17.5% strikeout rate with 10.7% walks. His best skill is ground balls, and there are three Brewers lefties with big hard hit and fly ball ability. Two of them to consider spending on are Eric Thames and Travis Shaw, but to save some salary, Brad Miller is an affordable middle infielder with 48% hard hits and 41% fly balls against right-handed pitching.

A Strong Mini Stack

I’m going to put Anthony Rendon and Trea Turner together as a mini-stack tonight. You may not be able to fit them both into cash games along with Scherzer, and you can choose between them based on positional need. Steven Matz is just an average pitcher to right-handed batters with a 21.8% K rate, 9.2% walks and 39% hard hits allowed. The power of Rendon (47% hard hits, 49% fly balls, .237 ISO) give him plenty of upside, while the high stolen bases allowed by Matz give Turner added upside as well. These two Nationals can be played together or on their own in all formats.

The Ace With Savings

There is a significant salary drop from the top five aces down to Stripling, but there is not a skills drop. Everything about Stripling’s skill set puts him firmly in the top tier and he has a strong matchup on top of it. The only thing holding him back is the somewhat limited pitch count he gets, but six innings of these skills against the Padres is more than enough for me on this slate.

Stripling’s combination of elite control, with just 3.6% walks and a low 28.1% hard hit rate that is the best mark of any pitcher on this loaded slate, gives him safety, while his 28.7% strikeout rate gives him upside. He is an easy fit as a cash game SP2 on DK/FDRFT and a strong tournament play with the salary on all sites.

The Best Of The Great

We are absolutely loaded with top pitching options on this short slate. In tournaments, there is plenty of merit to spreading out your exposure with names like Paxton, Snell, Kluber and Severino all on the board. But, even with all those aces, Max Scherzer is still a step above the rest and worth the extra salary. His 35.4% strikeout rate is well above the crowd, and he combines that with low 6.4% walks and limited hard contact.

Scherzer has nine or more strikeouts in 14 of his 19 starts and even more remarkably, has allowed more than two runs only three times all year. He also gets a favorable matchup against a Mets team that is dead last in the league in scoring over the past two weeks with a projected lineup carrying a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

The Affordable Stack

It’s never sexy to target the Pirates, but we have a short slate tonight and a lot of pitching to pay for, so there is a need to find some value with the bats. That’s where the Pirates come in. They have a fine matchup against Wade Miley, who has only pitched six major league innings this year and was last seen walking 13% of the batters he faced a year ago as a member of the Orioles. Those types of pitchers can definitely be stacked against, and I like the RHBs in the middle of this order tonight.

A High Upside Stack

Steven Matz has been pitching better of late, but this Nationals offense has shown their upside on plenty of occasions over the last few weeks. They have plenty of hitters who are capable of hitting left-handed pitching well, and we know that Matz can implode at times. Mark Reynolds had ten RBI the other night against a lefty, and while I wouldn’t go expecting that again, there’s clear upside with this stack. I’ll side with the RHBs first because Matz has been solid against same-handed hitters, but don’t be afraid to throw Harper and/or Soto into a full team stack.

The Pivot Off All the Big Names

Ross Stripling was around 6-7% owned in most contests in his last start, and that was on a short slate. He was rock solid once again in that outing against the Angels, and it surprises me how much most people overlook him. That won’t happen to the same extent tonight given the fact that he gets to face the Padres, but he still might go under-owned given the sheer number of aces we have on the mound. His stats are impressive across the board, with a 29% strikeout rate and one of the lowest walk rates in the league. His SIERA and xFIP are both right around 2.75. There’s a ton to love here, and the matchup is just icing on the cake.

Fire Up This Ace

We have a surprisingly large number of aces on tonight’s slate for it being a seven game docket, but Scherzer tops the list. He draws a favorable matchup against a Mets squad that has been rolling out a glorified Triple-A lineup on a nightly basis, and it’s difficult to see the Mets denting the scoreboard much against a pitcher that owns a 35% strikeout rate and nearly 17% swinging strike rate. There’s immense upside and a great element of safety here.

The Top Offense To Target

After a strong start to the season, we have seen some sizable regression from Tyson Ross over the last month and a half, particularly against left-handed batters. He is now allowing a .381 wOBA to LHBs this season, and lefties are posting a 30% line drive rate against him for the year. Almost all of the Dodgers’ lefties have been raking since the beginning of June, making this a very difficult matchup for a scuffling pitcher. Pederson is my favorite bat if you are looking for a one-off given his relative discount to the others along with his .390 wOBA and .310 ISO against RHP this year, but the full stack has a ton of upside, as well.

Take Advantage Of This FanDuel Price

If you’re playing on FanDuel, Andrew Toles is minimum salary and opens up a lot with roster construction tonight. Toles always has upside with his speed and should have a lot of potential in this game tonight. The Dodgers are the top stack on the slate for me, and I’d expect them to score some runs. In 222 career PAs since 2016, Toles has a .351 wOBA with a .347 OBP.

After starting the season strong, Tyson Ross has really fallen off. His velocity is down, and he continues to struggle with left-handed hitters. Ross has a .381 wOBA with a .202 ISO with a 38.5% hard-hit rate against lefties this season, so Toles is an interesting value play.

Nice Leadoff Value Option

We don’t have a lot of value options on this slate, so I’m attacking Wade Miley with some of these righties. Josh Harrison should hit leadoff, and while he’s struggled against lefties this season, the price is right. He has a .377 CXwOBA with a 11.1% strikeout rate against lefties thus far, and also has some positive regression coming with his .244 BABIP against LHP. He still has a 39.1% hard-hit rate with only a 13% soft-contact rate. Opposing pitcher Wade Miley had a .377 wOBA with a .193 ISO and 32.4% hard-hit rate against righties in 2017.

Potential SP2 Option

If the weather is okay in Minnesota, I think Kyle Gibson is an interesting SP2 on DraftKings and FantasyDraft. We don’t have a lot of value hitters on this slate, so I’m willing to roll the dice on this one to get some bats.

The projected starters for the Rays have a .131 ISO with a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, and with that lack of power and the upside of strikeouts, Gibson is interesting. He has a 11.6% swinging strike with a 23.2% strikeout rate and a 4.08 xFIP on the season. He’s been extremely good against lefties, so if Tampa goes left-handed heavy here, I think it’s a nice bump for Gibson.