DFS Alerts

Is He Really This Cheap?

When looking at this slate, Ross Stripling is priced as the seventh-highest pitcher on FanDuel tonight. I think he’s great value this far down, so he’s one of the top pitchers on the slate for me. The projected starters for the Padres have a .143 ISO with a .301 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. They also have a 23.5% strikeout rate and they hit a lot of groundballs.

Stripling has been great this season, and he opens up some extra bats on this slate. He has a .290 wOBA with a .150 ISO and a 25.7% strikeout rate against righties. With this projected lineup having four righties and lefties, it’s good to note that he’s actually been better against left-handed hitters, as he has a .266 wOBA with a .119 ISO and a 31.5% strikeout rate. Stripling generates a lot of soft contact with his slider and changeup and has a 7% hard to soft contact ratio this season.

No significant rain concerns on Wednesday

Kevin’s forecast has been updated and the overall risk level is very low with no significant rain concerns. Players can read the full report, which includes a word about monsoons, on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can get further updates from Kevin on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

Pitcher struggling since returning from injury visits the toughest park in baseball

The Colorado Rockies top the board at 5.98 implied runs tonight. Shelby Miller has allowed at least five runs (not all earned) in each of his three starts since returning from Tommy John surgery. He has a .400 xwOBA, 90.9 mph aEV, 15.9% Barrels/BBE and 54.5% 95+ mph EV. It’s been a thrashing and since last season (including his pre-TJ 2017 work), LHBs have a .359 wOBA (.377 xwOBA) with a 40.6 Hard% against him. Charlie Blackmon (140 wRC+, .290 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and Carlos Gonzalez (130 wRC+, .217 ISO) are the two top OFers on the board. Both have hit Miller well in the past as well (Blackmon three extra-base hits in 25 PAs, Gonzalez four extra-base hits in 21 PAs). Cargo might even be considered a salary saver, his cost well below most potent Coors bats tonight.

Significant home/road splits bolsters an otherwise marginal lineup

German Marquez has some pretty massive home/road splits. In a career that started last year, he has an ERA 1.53 runs higher at home, a wOBA 35 points higher, and a FIP 0.61 points higher. Both LHBs (.369) and RHBs (.354) have exceeded a .350 wOBA against him at home. He’s allowed at least four runs in seven of nine home starts this year. Appropriately, the Diamondbacks have a 5.52 implied run line that’s third best on the board despite their struggles against RHP (83 wRC+, 24.3 K%). They’ve also recently returned A.J. Pollock (109 wRC+, .234 ISO) to the lineup. He has the top ISO in the lineup against RHP over the last calendar year. Jon Jay (101 wRC+, .094 ISO) is the value play here as one of the cheapest bats in the lineup in the leadoff spot. David Peralta (133 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Paul Goldschmidt (117 wRC+, .210 ISO) are the only other two bats above a 110 wRC+ against RHP over the last 365 days. Paying up for a marginal lineup in a great spot will likely cost players the opportunity to roster high priced pitching.

Top projected lineup without an expensive bat

With the Red Sox, Yankees, Indians and game at Coors, it feels like the Cardinals (5.23) could be the forgotten offense among those above five implied runs tonight. After all, Carlos Rodon is not far removed from being a top prospect. Despite an 18.2 K% and 4.97 SIERA, he does have a respectable .332 xwOBA this year. The problem with this theory is that the other offenses are all high priced, which will be difficult to combine with high priced pitching. The Cardinals offer a top projection with nobody above $4.1K on DraftKings or $3.4K on FanDuel. RHBs have a .331 wOBA and xwOBA against Rodon since last season with LHBs just 17 points lower. Matt Carpenter (106 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) certainly stays in play here for less than $4K. Tommy Pham (121 wRC+, .158 ISO), Jose Martinez (192 wRC+, .302 ISO) and Jedd Gyorko (181 wRC+, .297 ISO) are top values tonight.

Dylan Bundy hasn't been as homer prone recently, but has been missing fewer bats too

Dylan Bundy has just a 21.6 K% over his last six starts and has allowed 19 HRs over 17 starts this season. Oddly, 15 of those came over a short seven game stretch. He’s allowed just three of them over his last six starts despite the lack of strikeouts and a 35.5 GB% over that span. Perhaps because he’s faced four of the five offenses in the NL East in that period, but now gets back to business with the Yankees tonight. If he’s not missing bats, some damage is likely to be done in a significantly power friendly park. While LHBs have a .346 to .286 wOBA advantage on RHBs since last season, RHBs have out-homered LHBs 25 to 20 over that span (similar number of PAs). For a Yankee offense that’s one of six teams above five implied runs (5.25), that means Brett Gardner (115 wRC+, .163 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) and then six straight batters behind him with a .200 ISO or better vs RHP over the last calendar year have a chance to do damage. Aaron Judge (165 wRC+, .329 ISO) is always the top bat in the lineup, while Gregory Bird (110 wRC+, .263 ISO) and Miguel Andujar (121 wRC+, .200 ISO) may be too expensive for bottom half of the order lineup spots on a night with so much expensive pitching. High end Yankee bats in the top half of the order are even more expensive, but this is the decision players will have to make tonight.

HR prone pitcher with large split in tough park

Tyler Mahle is able to generate some strikeouts (22.9%) by placing his fastball up in or above the strike zone, but he throws that fastball 67% of the time, which has led to 16 HRs allowed (though just three over his last eight starts) with LHBs owning 12 of those with a .396 wOBA (45.3 Hard%) against him this year. That is incredibly dangerous in Cleveland and the Tribe (5.21) is the last of six teams currently above 5.2 implied runs tonight. In addition to Francisco Lindor (138 wRC+, .282 ISO vs RHP last calendar year), Michael Brantley (132 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Jose Ramirez (156 wRC+, .299 ISO), Yonder Alonso (118 wRC+, .179 ISO) and Jason Kipnis (83 wRC+, .158 ISO) can help save some salary. Kipnis has a team best 246 wRC+ over the last week. Brantley also costs just $4.5K on DraftKings, much less than the two bats sandwiching him.

Potential value at the top of one lightly projected offense against a top pitcher tonight

The Reds have just a 3.43 implied run line against a tough pitcher in Carlos Carrasco, but this is just his second start back from the DL (5.1 IP – 3 ER vs A’s in first) and he’s really only been about league average against LHBs since last year (.312 wOBA, .316 xwOBA), while pitching in a park that favors left-handed offense and power. The Reds have some quality left-handed bats with some pop and potentially some value near the top of the lineup in Scott Schebler (106 wRC+, .238 ISO) for just $4K on DraftKings and Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .188 ISO), who’s just too cheap at $4.4K on the same site.

One of the worst pitchers on the board in one of the worst parks

The Red Sox (5.84) are second on a board with six teams above 5.1 runs tonight. They’re facing Bartolo Colon (14.2 K%, 4.48 SIERA, .367 xwOBA) at Fenway tonight. That last number is third worst on the board among those with more than three starts this year and the run environment does him no favors. Little analysis is necessary. If paying down for pitching, load up on expensive Red Sox bats from Mookie Betts (134 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) through Xander Bogaerts (105 wRC+, .190 ISO). Mitch Moreland (112 wRC+, .228 ISO) is the only one among that group below a 192 wRC+ and 50% hard hit rate over the last week. J.D. Martinez (183 wRC+, .389 ISO) continues one of the longest run hot streaks known to man.

Right Back to the Well

The Cardinals were one of my favorite sneaky stacks last night and they ended up breaking the slate. I am usually hesitant to go back to an offense that went nuts like that, but they are intriguing once again. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they get to use the DH in this series, and they draw a favorable matchup against Carlos Rodon. On the season, he has allowed a .339 xwOBA to lefties and a .327 xwOBA to righties. Rodon hasn’t been able to induce many ground balls against right-handed hitters, so there is plenty of home run upside here. The best part about the Cardinals is that they are one of the cheapest stacking options of the slate.

Going Right Back to the Well

The Cardinals were one of my favorite sneaky stacks last night and they ended up breaking the slate. I am usually hesitant to go back to an offense that went nuts like that, but they are intriguing once again. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they get to use the DH in this series, and they draw a favorable matchup against Carlos Rodon. On the season, he has allowed a .339 xwOBA to lefties and a .327 xwOBA to righties. Rodon hasn’t been able to induce many ground balls against right-handed hitters, so there is plenty of home run upside here. The best part about the Cardinals is that they are one of the cheapest stacking options of the slate.

Stack, Stack, Stack!

The Red Sox should score ten runs here. I emphasize should because this is baseball and anything can happen. However, they are facing a low-strikeout pitcher that has struggled with right-handed hitters all season. They are facing him at home in a ballpark that favors left-handed power. They are also one of the most talented offenses in baseball. This is not a typo — eight of their projected starters have an xwOBA of at least .335 against right-handed pitching this season and six of them have an ISO of at least .205. I know that you aren’t able to stack the Red Sox and play one of the elite arms, but that’s a sacrifice that I’m willing to make given the upside of this offense.

The Best Pitcher in Baseball and the Best Pitcher in the Slate

Sale is right there with Jacob deGrom as the top pitching option on the board. While I have Sale slightly higher in terms of a raw projection, he’s a little more expensive and will likely be higher owned. With everything considered, I don’t have a strong preference one way or the other. Sale is the best pitcher in baseball right now. In his 19 starts this season, he has a 2.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 37%. He’s one of a handful of starters that has a higher soft contact rate than hard contact rate. He has elite velocity on his fastball and an elite swinging strike rate. He should be able to mow through a Rangers’ offense that has struggled against left-handed pitching this season.

Sneaky Upside on the Road

Gray has basically become the poor man’s Carlos Carrasco this season. If you aren’t sure what I am referring to, he has been awful at home and quite effective on the road. If you pull up his splits in his DraftKings’ profile, you can see that he has averaged four fantasy points per start at home and 16 fantasy points per start on the road. We’ve been targeting right-handed pitchers against the Orioles all season and tonight we have a chance to play a cheap Gray at discounted ownership. While he’s far from a lock, he has a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season and will likely see seven righties in the Orioles’ lineup that just so happens to have a 25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Daily Bullpen Alert: Few spots where bullpen advantages can be found

The worst bullpen on the board over the last month (Mets 5.84 FIP, 8.9 K-BB%) has one of the best pitchers (Jacob deGrom) going tonight, so a bet on the Phillies is likely one for the bullpen doing a lot of damage in an inning or two and that’s possible, but likely unprofitable. The Angels (5.32 FIP, 15.2 K-BB%) are the only other bullpen on the board above a five FIP over the last month and Jaime Barria hasn’t completed six innings in over a month. The 15.2 K-BB% is an above average mark, which means they’ve been generous with the HR ball and the Seattle offense does have some bop in the middle. Three more bullpens are above a 4.8 FIP with a K-BB less than 9% over the last month. Two are off the board and the other is the Rockies, if players need any additional incentive to roster Diamondback bats with an 83 wRC+ and 24.3 K% vs RHP this year, though they recently returned a couple of their better hitters, both from the right side. Dan Straily, Sonny Gray, Joey Lucchesi and Shelby Miller all average around five innings per start or less. Of course, that doesn’t help much because the Diamondbacks (3.92 FIP, 11.3 K-BB% last 30 days) are at Coors, where players are likely attacking anyway, while the Yankees (2.96 FIP, 22.8 K-BB%) and Padres (3.57 FIP, 21.8 K-BB%) are bullpens to avoid. The Marlins (4.00 FIP, 9.2 K-BB%) are a positive DFS takeaway here, though in one of the most negative run and power suppressing environments in all baseball.