DFS Alerts

The Clear-Cut Top Offense

So… this probably isn’t going to go well for the Mariners. James Paxton lasted only two-thirds of an inning last night, and the Mariners had to use six bullpen arms to get through the game against the Angels. Now, they travel to Coors Field and are using Christian Bergman as a fill-in starter in place of the injured Felix Hernandez. Oh, and the Rockies just happen to be coming off back-to-back wins while scoring 24 runs in their last two games. This could get ugly. Every Colorado bat from top to bottom is in play here, and I’d suggest a full stack in tournament formats.

Risk/Reward Potential

We know the “stuff” is there with Carlos Martinez; it’s all a matter of whether he can put it all together over the course of a start and harness his command. That’s a major issue at times, and it seems like he rushed himself back from the disabled list a couple months ago. In his first four starts after his return, he had 20 walks and 18 strikeouts. In his last three starts, he has 3 walks and 18 strikeouts. That’s quite the turnaround.

Martinez pitched six shutout innings against this Reds team when he was healthy earlier in the year, and while their volume of left-handed bats is concerning enough to keep Martinez off the cash game radar tonight, I do like the GPP upside at a reasonable price point.

The Top Pitcher on a Thin Slate for Arms

We don’t have much for high-end pitching this evening, as some of the top arms on the slate (Syndergaard and Buehler) are just returning from the disabled list and are very likely to be limited in some capacity.

We do not have that concern with Bumgarner, and he stands above the pack here. He is coming off a poor outing against the Cardinals in his last start but had been otherwise solid over the last three to four weeks, and I’m willing to overlook one poor start. In fact, that might serve to keep his ownership in check this evening. The A’s have some power bats in their lineup, but they can go cold at times, and Bumgarner makes a lot of sense if you are paying up for a pitching option.

Start of Thursday's TBR-MIN game will be delayed due to rain

The start of the matchup between the Tampa Bay Rays and Minnesota Twins on Thursday night will be delayed due to rain. There’s yet to be any confirmation of an official start time, and the Twins have not committed to a specific timeline for providing further updates. The confirmed late start is better news for the prospects of starting pitchers like Kyle Gibson and Blake Snell not being pulled from their starts early because of a mid-game delay, but as Kevin Roth has detailed in the latest update to his MLB weather forecast, this game’s risk is increasing with more storms forming upstream and a late postponement cannot be entirely ruled out, though definitely not the likeliest outcome.

Potent LHBs against pitcher who's been lit up by lefties recently

Tyson Ross enjoyed a resurgence earlier in the season, but has just a 15.3 K% over his last eight starts. Over that span, LHBs have a .419 wOBA against him with five HRs and a 39 Hard%. Since last season, LHBs are at a .366 wOBA and 36.9 Hard%. Despite the negative run environment in San Diego, the Dodgers have the second highest implied run line on the board, even at just 4.38 runs. Though not necessarily cheap, this is a spot where players want to attack with potent left-handed bats in the top half of the lineup. Joc Pederson (121 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is expected to leadoff when the lineup is released and costs a very reasonable $4.3K on DK/$3.3K on FD. Max Muncy (166 wRC+, .331 ISO) is much more expensive, but continues to punish RHP like few other batters this year. Hopefully, Cody Bellinger (126 wRC+, .251 ISO) is in the cleanup spot. Each of the first seven batters in the projected lineup is above a 100 wRC+ with only Justin Turner (.174) below a .200 ISO vs RHP, but price is going to be an issue, as there are no cheap bats expected in this lineup.

One area of concern in Thursday night's forecast

Kevin’s forecast has been updated for Thursday night and there is one potentially high risk spot. Players can read the report on the Weather page. Premium subscribers can stay updated on conditions with Kevin through lock on Crunch Time at 6:30 ET.

An improved pitcher, but cheap quality bats on FanDuel

Using last year’s numbers in addition to 2018, batters from either side of the plate have done well against Kyle Gibson (LHBs .338 wOBA, 36.9 Hard%, 53.8 GB% – RHBs .328 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%, 45.5 GB%). Using just this season however, he still has virtually no split, but batters from either side are down 30 points. While both the hard hit and ground ball rates remain the same, the improvement is simply a byproduct of Gibson improving to a league average K-BB (13%) against batters from both sides. The Rays have a 4.20 implied run line that’s actually fourth best on a tough slate. There’s nothing especially eye-popping in the Tampa Bay lineup and the forecast is questionable in Minnesota tonight, but no matter what version of Gibson you’re talking about, Kevin Kiermaier (101 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is a value bat on FanDuel for $2.9K and probably for $1K more on DraftKings as well. Ji-Man Choi (131 wRC+, .294 ISO), Jake Bauers (124 wRC+, .203 ISO) and C.J. Cron (122 wRC+, .228 ISO) have been quality bats as well, the former two in small samples. Choi costs the minimum on FanDuel.

Dominant offense with low implied run line in a great park

Corey Kluber has a 19.1 K% (10.1 SwStr%) with a 4.39 ERA and 4.21 SIERA over the last 30 days. The Yankees have the lowest implied run line (3.63) you’ll probably ever see for them in top positive run environment. They’re still expensive, but Aaron Judge (165 wRC+, .326 ISO) and company could have some very low ownership rates tonight. It’s by no means a lock and probably not even likely that they punish Kluber tonight, but it’s something at least worth thinking about.

Affordable bats against a pitcher who gets hammered by RHBs

Wade Miley is probably the worst pitcher on the board tonight and the Pirates will attack him with seven right-handed position players (though the lone lefty is in the leadoff spot). The Pirates (4.17) are one of few offenses above four implied runs tonight and while Pittsburgh greatly suppresses right-handed power, it plays fairly neutrally towards offense overall. That and the potency of right-handed bats against Miley since last season (.371 wOBA) should push players towards mostly affordable Pittsburgh bats. Elias Diaz (158 wRC+, .229 ISO) is an easy catching option tonight, batting third for $3.6K or less. If players buy into Miley’s .345 xwOBA and 35.8 Hard% (57.9 GB% though) against LHBs more than his actual .298 wOBA against them since last season, Corey Dickerson (108 wRC+, .112 ISO) has a 189 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week and may be an option as well. David Freese (87 wRC+, .075 ISO) can no longer be considered a quality bat, but he is batting cleanup and cheap.

Nine HRs allowed last four starts and the most positive run environment on the board

David Price allowed five HRs and eight runs to the Yankees two starts back, but another four runs with a HR in 4.2 innings against the Royals last time out, despite striking out nine. Three times in his last four starts, he’s allowed at least three runs with nine HRs total and tonight, he’s pitching in the most positive run environment on the board, facing nine RHBs. With the platoon advantage, batters have a .315 wOBA (.332 xwOBA) against him since last year with just a 37.3 GB%. The Blue Jays have just a few above average hitters against LHP over the last calendar year and two of them are at first base for daily fantasy purposes. Kendrys Morales (122 wRC+, .169 ISO) costs much less than Justin Smoak (119 wRC+, .166 ISO). Teoscar Hernandez (104 wRC+, .274 ISO) is the other above average bat in this lineup, while Randal Grichuk (74 wRC+, .220 ISO) is a leadoff bat with power, who costs just $2.5K on FanDuel tonight.

Reduced prices for elite bats in matchup against an Ace

Luis Severino is a Cy Young contender in the Al and even in one of the most positive run environments in play tonight, the Tribe has just a 3.37 implied run line at home, just third from the bottom of the board. However, players who buy into xwOBA can see LHBs have a .305 mark against Severino since last season. That’s still better than the average pitcher, but it’s 35 points above his actual mark, while the hard hit rate (33.4%) and ground ball rate (46.2%) are right around league average, while he’ll be facing three of the top LHBs in the league at the top of the order, all at somewhat reduced prices tonight. Francsico Lindor (138 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) is the most expensive bat at $5K on DraftKings. Jose Ramirez (159 wRC+, .311 ISO) is $4.8K. Michael Brantley (133 wRC+, .202 ISO) probably has some value at $4.2K tonight. If the Indians were going to get to Severino, these would be the three guys most likely to do damage. He did allow a season high two HRs with just five strikeouts in his last start. If not though, they could be facing Aroldis Chapman in the ninth.

RHBs have a ground ball rate 20 points lower and hard hit rate 20 points higher since last year vs this pitcher

A 4.24 implied run line isn’t much to brag about, but it’s third best on the board tonight. Steven Matz could be a useful SP2 on DraftKings for less than $6K, as he has been pitching well enough lately (3.29 FIP, .304 xwOBA last 30 days), but players not using him, who still somehow have salary to spare, should consider Washington bats in this spot. Matz owns a significant split since last season (RHBs .343 wOBA, LHBs .309 wOBA with an xwOBA less than 20 points different). Also, RHBs have a hard contact rate (36.9%) some 20 points higher and a ground ball rate (45.1%) 20 points lower against Matz since last season. While that removes the left-handed portion of the Washington lineup, Juan Soto is interesting for two reasons. First, his 199 wRC+, .390 xwOBA, and .311 ISO vs LHP. These are small sample numbers, but eye popping for sure. The other is that once Matz is out of the game, the Mets don’t really have a LH reliever who’s been successful against LHBs this year. Mark Reynolds (139 wRC+, .240 ISO) has bolstered his numbers against southpaws with three HRs in 14 PAs overall in the past week and may be the value bat in this lineup for less than $4.5K on DK or just $3.2K on FanDuel. Anthony Rendon (134 wRC+, .252 ISO) is the more consistent bat. Trea Turner (125 wRC+, .131 ISO) will likely be able to run at will on Matz should he reach base.

Need The Savings

On a slate like this with high end pitchers, and all the obvious bats being expensive, a couple of hitting values are essential. At bare minimum salary on FanDuel, if Toles is in the lineup, he is a great way to make the rest of your lineup work. Toles is nothing amazing, but neither is Tyson Ross against lefties, with just an 18.9% strikeout rate. Toles has been a solid contact hitter throughout his minor league career and in his sporadic major league time since 2016, he has a .295 average and .344 OBP with a better than average 18.3% strikeout rate.

Is there ever value in opposing Max Scherzer?

Opposing Max Scherzer is not something normally, or ever, recommended, but players need cheap bats tonight and it’s rare to find a 150 wRC+ and .250 ISO for less than $4K on DraftKings. That’s exactly what you get in Brandon Nimmo (151 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP last calendar year) for $3.6K tonight. He came off the bench to homer on the first pitch he saw last night and the good news is he may not be facing Scherzer in a plate appearance or two tonight. Other Met bets are even cheaper, but not nearly strong enough to consider in this spot.

Boston RHB has homered five times against tonight's opposing pitcher

The Red Sox have a 5.09 implied run line. Nobody else on the slate is above 4.4 runs. The major dilemma here is that all of your best Boston bats are extremely expensive as are most of the top pitching options tonight. RHBs have just a .316 wOBA (.306 xwOBA) with a 29.2 Hard% against J.A. Happ since last season, but circumstances what they are tonight, including the most positive run environment on the board, he draws the short straw. It’s not like he’s been helping himself at all recently either (22.2 IP – 27 H – 20 ER – 6 HR – 9 BB – 21 K – 102 BF last four starts). He has faced the Yankees, Astros and Braves over that span, but now another top offense is expected to produce similar results. Mookie (184 wRC+, .289 ISO vs LHP last calendar year) and J.D. (161 wRC+, .319 ISO) are so obvious here that we’re on a first name basis. Steve Pearce (131 wRC+, .245 ISO) may be the most popular player on the slate. Not only does he cost well over $1K less than the other two in the cleanup spot, but he has homered five times (two doubles) against Happ in just 33 PAs.