DFS Alerts
Cheap Punt Offering Upside
Coach Kerr recently moved Spellman into the starting center role to replace Willie Cauley-Stein, and Spellman responded with a 17/5/3/3 line in 28 minutes against the Clippers. This matchup against the Grizzlies and their twin towers of Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren Jackson Jr. isn’t as favorable for Spellman, and the Warriors will be getting D’Angelo Russell back which will soak up a lot of usage that went to Spellman last game, but this is a spot where the price tag remains very cheap across the industry for someone who has been playing well and is on the upswing. I don’t expect Spellman to explode again for 30+ fantasy points, but at this price tag I don’t think it hurts to go back to the well either as I see more potential upside than downside.
Sixth Man With Increased Role
Depending on what site you’re playing on, Lou Williams may have actually seen a slight price decrease despite dropping 37+ fantasy points last game against the Warriors in just 31 minutes. Williams is expected to see another expanded role today against the Nuggets with the Clippers missing Paul George. Per CourtIQ, when George is off the court, Williams owns a 29.8% usage rate and averages 1.2 fantasy points per minute. Given his reasonable price tag and a route to 40+ fantasy points here if this game stays close, I like Williams on this slate.
Wesley Matthews (finger) available to play Saturday
As expected, Matthews will be available to play in Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back set against the Portland Trail Blazers despite dealing with a sore finger, while Kyle Korver was already ruled out with a sore back. Korver only logged nine minutes in Friday’s blowout win, but Milwaukee has continued to manage his workload all season, so his unavailability is far from surprising, and Sterling Brown is likely to step in the rotation if head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn’t reallocate Korver’s minutes to the likes of Donte DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton this evening. DiVincenzo and Connaughton have similar usage rates on the year, but DiVencenzo has been the more productive of the two and is averaging 0.92 DraftKings and 0.94 FanDuel points per minute in 811.4 minutes this season.
As reported by: Jamie Hudson via Twitter
Anthony Davis (glute) out Saturday
Davis has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back set against the Oklahoma City Thunder due to a Gluteus Maximus contusion that has now forced him to miss two games, while LeBron James and Danny Green were already ruled out with their respective ailments. With Davis sidelined for Friday’s win, Kyle Kuzma ended up starting at power forward and was great for fantasy purposes in 34 minutes of action. James has only missed one game this season, and in that contest, Rajon Rondo drew the start at point guard and managed to log 28 minutes as a member of the first unit, but the additional absence of Green should theoretically afford him a few extra minutes this evening. There obviously is a minimal sample size with Davis, James, and Green all off the court, but in that limited time, Kuzma owns a 31.4% usage rate, a 14.3% assist rate, and is averaging 1.18 DraftKings and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute.
As reported by: Dave McMenamin via Twitter Bruce Brown (thumb) will start Saturday
As expected, Brown will start in Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls despite dealing with a sprained right thumb, while Markieff Morris was already cleared to return after missing seven games with a sprained left foot. Head coach Dwane Casey didn’t disclose whether Morris would be subject to a minute restriction in his first game back, but he did express concern over his general conditioning, which could signal that Morris won’t be expected to assume a typical starting minutes workload this evening. This decision could be made easier by the emergence of rookie Sekou Doumbouya, who has managed to log at least 27 minutes as a starter in four of the Pistons’ previous five games. Derrick Rose has continued to lead the way with a 33.5% usage rate and a 43.8% assist rate with Luke Kennard and Blake Griffin sidelined, and both he and Brown average at least +0.11 more fantasy points per minute with them off the court this season.
As reported by: Keith Langlois via Twitter Jrue Holiday (elbow) and J.J. Redick (hamstring) officially out Saturday
As expected, Holiday and Redick won’t play in Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back set against the Boston Celtics, while Derrick Favors and Kenrich Williams were already ruled out due to a strained right hamstring and a sore lower back, respectively. Favors exited in the closing moments of the second quarter in Friday’s win, which allowed Jaxson Hayes to receive the start at the center position to begin the second half, and he went on to log 16 of his 29 total minutes in the final two quarters. The Pelicans were already without Holiday and Williams in yesterday’s contest, but with Redick unavailable, E’Twaun Moore appears to be the likeliest candidate to join the starting lineup alongside Josh Hart on the wing. The sample size with all the injured Pelicans off the court remains limited, but in that time, Brandon Ingram leads the way with a 29.8% usage rate, and both he and Hart average at least +0.11 more fantasy points per minute over their normal season-long statistics.
As reported by: Andrew Lopez via Twitter Other tagged players: J.J. Redick Markieff Morris (foot) will play Saturday
Morris has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Saturday’s matchup against the Chicago Bulls after missing seven games due to a sprained left foot, while Bruce Brown remains probable with a sprained right thumb. Head coach Dwane Casey didn’t disclose whether Morris would be subject to a minute restriction in his first game back, but he did express concern over his general conditioning, which could signal that Morris won’t be expected to assume a typical starting minutes workload this evening. This decision could be made easier by the emergence of rookie Sekou Doumbouya, who has managed to log at least 27 minutes as a starter in four of the Pistons’ previous five games. Derrick Rose has continued to lead the way with a 33.5% usage rate and a 43.8% assist rate with Luke Kennard and Blake Griffin sidelined, and both he and Brown average at least +0.11 more fantasy points per minute with them off the court this season.
As reported by: Vincent Ellis via Twitter Clint Capela (heel) out Saturday
Head coach Mike D’Antoni confirmed with reporters at his pregame media availability that Capela won’t play in Saturday’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves due to a right heel contusion. In his absence, Isaiah Hartenstein will receive the starting nod at the center position once again, and in the two most recent games with Capela sidelined, Hartenstein logged at least 24 minutes in each contest and was phenomenal for fantasy purposes on both occasions. Meanwhile, Tyson Chandler played a combined 17 minutes over that span, so he shouldn’t be expected to assume a significant role off the bench this evening. Other than Hartenstein’s increased playing time, James Harden has benefitted the most with Capela off the court, as he sees his usage rate spike to 44.1% and is averaging 1.86 DraftKings and 1.79 FanDuel points per minute in a 456.2 minutes sample size.
As reported by: Cayleigh Griffin via Twitter Kyle Korver (back) out Saturday; Wesley Matthews (finger) probable
Korver has officially been ruled out and won’t play in Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back set against the Portland Trail Blazers due to a sore back, while Matthews is probable with a sore finger. Korver only logged nine minutes in Friday’s blowout win, but Milwaukee has continued to manage his workload all season, so his unavailability is far from surprising, and Sterling Brown is likely to step in the rotation if head coach Mike Budenholzer doesn’t reallocate Korver’s minutes to the likes of Donte DiVincenzo and Pat Connaughton this evening. DiVincenzo and Connaughton have similar usage rates on the year, but DiVencenzo has been the more productive of the two and is averaging 0.92 DraftKings and 0.94 FanDuel points per minute in 811.4 minutes this season.
As reported by: Jamie Hudson via Twitter Other tagged players: Wesley Matthews LeBron James (illness) Danny Green (hip) out Saturday; Anthony Davis (glute) questionable
James and Green have officially been ruled out of Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back set against the Oklahoma City Thunder due to their respective ailments, while Davis is considered questionable with a Gluteus Maximus contusion that has already forced him to miss one game. With Davis sidelined for Friday’s win, Kyle Kuzma ended up starting at power forward and was great for fantasy purposes in 34 minutes of action. James has only missed one game this season, and in that contest, Rajon Rondo drew the start at point guard and managed to log 28 minutes as a member of the first unit, but the additional absence of Green should theoretically afford him a few extra minutes this evening. If Davis is cleared to play, he’ll become an elite option for all daily fantasy formats, as he has a 35.1% usage rate, a 19.2% assist rate, a 17.3% rebound rate, and is averaging 1.77 DraftKings and 1.84 FanDuel points per minute with James and Green off the court this season.
As reported by: the Los Angeles Lakers via Twitter Other tagged players: Danny Green, Anthony Davis Derrick Favors (hamstring) and Kenrich Williams (back) out Saturday; Jrue Holiday (elbow) and J.J. Redick (hamstring) doubtful
Favors and Williams have officially been ruled out for Saturday’s second leg of a back-to-back set against the Boston Celtics, while Holiday and Redick are listed as doubtful with a strained left elbow and a strained left hamstring, respectively. Favors exited in the closing moments of the second quarter in Friday’s win, which allowed Jaxson Hayes to receive the start at the center position to begin the second half, and he went on to log 16 of his 29 total minutes in the final two quarters. The Pelicans were already without Holiday and Williams in yesterday’s contest, but with Redick likely unavailable, E’Twaun Moore appears to be the likeliest candidate to join the starting lineup alongside Josh Hart on the wing. The sample size with all the injured Pelicans off the court remains limited, but in that time, Brandon Ingram leads the way with a 29.8% usage rate, and both he and Hart average at least +0.11 more fantasy points per minute over their normal season-long statistics.
As reported by: Will Guillory via Twitter Other tagged players: J.J. Redick, Kenrich Williams, Jrue Holiday Missing Center Opens Up Opportunity
I expect all of Ben Simmons, Al Horford and Tobias Harris to be popular today with Joel Embiid out. Per CourtIQ, all three average over one fantasy point per minute with Embiid off the court. I don’t mind pivoting to a lower owned option like Josh Richardson, who has stepped up lately and should be lower owned than the other three if you want to get different.
Rookie In Line For Extended Minutes
Derrick Favors left last night’s game early with a hamstring injury and I’d be shocked if he played. Jaxson Hayes filled in well last night and could be looking at big minutes tonight. Let me just say that on sites where you can play multiple centers, I think it’s a two center night and one of them should be Hayes. He provides salary relief and still has plenty of upside. On a site like FanDuel where you can only play one, there’s a bit more risk and opportunity cost as I also love Andre Drummond. So playing Hayes on FanDuel means getting huge spend ups elsewhere, while paying up at center makes you different already. Just keep that mind.
Smash Spot For Guard
On paper, Jamal Murray should have his way with the Cavaliers. Cleveland allows the most fantasy points to opposing point guards, making this a matchup Murray should exploit. Murray also sees a modest +1.7% usage bump when Paul Millsap is out and averages a fantasy point per minute. I like the idea of taking some chances on Murray in GPPs.
A Safe Mid-Range Play
If we are looking for a safe, steady option in the mid-range of the salary scale tonight, Tobias Harris fits that mold perfectly. Harris is never going to lead a team to a championship or a conference title, but he is certainly capable of playing a key role on a good team. His production has always been steady and secure, with a relatively limited ceiling but a safe floor. That makes him a reasonable cash game play on most slates, particularly smaller ones. Now, we have to factor in the loss of Joel Embiid. With Embiid off the floor this season, we can see that Al Horford sees a 4.3% bump in usage (to 22.4%), while Tobias Harris gets a 1.9% bump in usage (to 25.9%). Both Harris and Horford score around seven additional fantasy points per 36 minutes. Both Harris and Horford score around 43 fantasy points per 36 minutes with Embiid off the floor. It’s like their production is identical. I’m siding with Harris as the core play because his overall usage is a little bit higher. Also, the matchup grades out better for him, as Dallas ranks dead last in the NBA in our Defense vs. Archetype tool against versatile forwards.
