DFS Alerts
Jae Crowder is expected to play
Jazz will go back to the well with Crowder in the starting lineup, looking to wear down the Rockets starting 5 with Crowder’s physicality, while letting Derrick Favors come off the bench. While Favors may not have as high of a ceiling of minutes in this alignment, his efficiency should be quite good, resulting in favorable point per minute production against the Rockets bench. Crowder himself may see some additional minutes, but his lower usage would mean we should not expect him to produce at anywhere near the same rate.
As reported by: Utah Jazz
Bruce Brown is expected to play
Bruce Brown will enter the starting lineup, and while he is a low usage player who you still might not be thrilled about rostering in your DFS lineups, this does mean a slignt tweak down for the projection of Luke Kennard- that said Kennard will have much higher usage on the 2nd unit as opposed to competing with Blake Griffn, Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson for touches.
As reported by: Keith Langlois Blake Griffin is expected to play
With Griffin active for tonight’s game and fighting for his playoff hopes, it should come as no surprise that he will likely play big minutes here in an effort to extend the series to a 5th game. With the Bucks focused defensively on containing the Drummond/Reggie Jackson pick and roll, opportunity could be there for Griffin, who will need to have his shot tonight to keep the Pistons competitive. With limited other Pistons bigs seeing meaningful minutes, we should expect Blake to give it his all tonight.
As reported by: Keith Langlois Salary Relief Tonight Comes in the Form of...
…Luke Kennard? Yep! The usage rate was way down in Game 3 since Blake Griffin returned, but the good news is that he still logged 37.5 minutes. Those minutes alone make him one of the better cheap plays on the slate and a priority for me since I want to jam in two studs in cash games. I do question the upside here (assuming Griffin plays again), so I’d very much like to be underweight on Kennard in tournaments if he projects to be one of the highest owned cheap plays of the slate.
Top Option 1B
Next up on my list is figuring out a way to pair Giannis with Harden in cash games. And no matter how ugly the rest of the plays will look, that is the optimal route in my opinion. Giannis was a disappointment from a fantasy perspective on Saturday, largely due to only playing 28 minutes. However, the price has come down to just $11,000 on FD and $10,200 on DK. That price decrease mitigates some of the minutes risk here, making him my next priority in cash games. And despite not showing it yet in this series, there is still plenty of profit potential here for tournament formats.
Top Option 1A
On this two-game slate, I will be focusing on jamming in Harden and Giannis in cash games and scraping together whatever I can to finish out the rest of the roster. Harden disappointed on Saturday more so in real life than in fantasy. Despite shooting 3 for 20, he salvaged his fantasy night by getting 7 total steals/blocks and hitting 14 free throws. I expect him to bounce back tonight with a great game, while Houston completes a sweet of the Jazz. Despite the more difficult matchup against Utah, I would slightly prioritize Harden over Giannis if you only want one stud due to the more sturdier minutes floor.
Not Your Average Sidekick
Paul George could easily move to any middle of the road team and be the #1 scoring option. At times, even on a team that includes Russell Westbrook, Paul George has been that #1 option. If the Thunder are going to keep the bus moving through this series George is going to have to show up and I think he does just that today. He has proven that he can get the job done along with Westbrook and we haven’t seen a break out performance yet. No, he is not “due” but the law of averages suggest the positive side of variance should be kicking in any minute now… Wait for it… Wait for it…. the time is now.
It's Getting Chippy
Westbrook is just not playing around at home. The numbers speak for themselves in terms of what he has accomplished for a sustained period of time, but the real story is the feud between him and Lillard. This is must see TV and a must win for the leader of the Oklahoma City Thunder. If Westbrook wants to keep the Blazers from smelling blood in the water he will have to continue delivering big time performances. I think he does just that here and “rocks the baby” one more time. (Watch the game to understand this reference)
Blake Griffin (knee) will start Saturday
Griffin was able to go through pregame warmups and will start in Saturday’s Game 3 matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks after missing the first two games of the series due to a sore left knee. There’s yet to be any report of a potential minute restriction for Griffin, but his presence the starting unit will send Thon Maker back to the bench to resume a reserve role following a couple of mediocre fantasy performances in an average of 21.5 minutes per game. If Griffin ends up being a full-go, he’ll certainly be a compelling tournament target since he leads the Pistons with a 29.5% usage rate and is averaging 1.19 DraftKings and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute since the conclusion of the NBA All-Star break.
As reported by: Malika Andrews via Twitter
Joel Embiid (knee) will play Saturday
Despite originally being listed as doubtful, Embiid will play in Saturday’s Game 4 matchup against the Brooklyn Nets after missing two consecutive game due to nagging left knee tendinitis. His availability obviously removes Greg Monroe and Boban Marjanovic from consideration in daily fantasy formats given their likely diminished roles in the second unit, and Monroe is a strong candidate to receive a DNP-CD after logging 25 minutes in Thursday’s win. Unsurprisingly, Embiid has led the Sixers with a 33.7% usage rate while averaging 1.67 DraftKings and 1.66 FanDuel points per minute since the NBA trade deadline, which makes him an elite tournament target is he’s able to play a full complement of minutes without any setbacks this afternoon.
As reported by: Jon Johnson via Twitter No Tricks or Gimmicks
The 76ers are just the goldmine of this slate. I can’t include the “big” three in this blurb, but they are all core plays today. Simmons, Butler, and Harris should lead the charge if the 76ers want to win this game today, and with Mr. Usage Embiid on the shelf (or at least he should be), it will be spread around to these three guys mostly. I am firing these guys up in all formats as they should have ample opportunities to exceed value.
Playing Massive Minutes Through Injury
Let me say I love both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard on this slate as both have massive upside. Leonard has the easier matchup and is healthy, while George is playing hurt but has the higher minutes expectation. George has played at least 41 minutes in the series’ first two games and now gets a home date with the Blazers. On DraftKings he feels underpriced, and on a FanDuel I would grab one of George or Leonard. I slightly lean George between the two because Kawhi also has Lowry and Siakam taking shots, while George should see all the shots and minutes he can handle as long as this game stays close.
Fully Back From Injury
I had some concerns about C.J. McCollum’s workload as he worked his way back from injury, but there’s no doubt he’s fully back after playing 37 and 36 minutes in the series’ first two games. On DraftKings he’s simply too cheap for his current role, and on FanDuel there’s too steep of a drop after him. He’s a core play for me given the context of this slate, and the Thunder are having fits trying to guard him between Terrance Ferguson and Dennis Schroder.
Greg Monroe is expected to play
Will be interesting to see if Monroe truly gets some run here, or if he is a starter in name only before giving way to Boban and then the Sixers ultimately going small. We don’t yet know what this year’s iteration of the playoff 76ers looks like with Embiid ruled out, but we are about to find out.
As reported by: Keith Pompey Joel Embiid has been ruled out
Joel Embiid will not play tonight, meaning Greg Monroe will get the start. Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, and Tobias Harris will all see increased usage, and Jarrett Allen will have the far less competent (and likely to draw fouls) Greg Monroe to contend with, likely meaning a better opportunity for him to have a productive game. Boban Marjanovic will also likely see some increased run, but we can expect both Simmons and Butler to be very ball dominant in this game.
As reported by: Keith Pompey