DFS Alerts

Fire Up the Revenge Narrative

Narratives are more of a talking point than actually being predictive, but they don’t hurt when everything else lines up. Paul George has been dealing with a shoulder injury, but he’s still playing a full complement of minutes. He scored 50 fantasy points last night against the Nets and now gets to face his former team in the Pacers. While they are a stout defense as a whole, I’ll take my chances with George against Bojan Bogdanovic.

Value at Point Guard

D.J. Augustin isn’t the most exciting play on the board, but he’s certainly one of the best values. He played well last night against the Wizards and draws another exploitable matchup tonight. Over the last 10 games, the Cavaliers are ranked dead last in efficiency against point guards. Augustin should play around 30 minutes in a home game that the Magic need to win and he’s priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Core Play in All Formats

Serge Ibaka has been suspended for his altercation with Marquese Chriss. While we already expected it, the Raptors came out and said that Marc Gasol will start and play as many minutes as he can handle. This is one of those situations that we don’t need to overthink. Gasol is going to play 30+ minutes against the Lakers, who are ranked 26th in efficiency against centers and 25th in DvA against versatile bigs.

Chalk Value

Even though he will be popular tonight, I am finding it difficult to get away from Monte Morris in GPP formats. There isn’t a lot of obvious value available at the guard spots, and Morris continues to play minutes in the high-20’s off the bench for Denver. His price remains below $4,000 on both major sites, and his minutes will be secure even if the game gets out of hand. Fire him up as one of the best values on this shorter slate.

Upside At Reasonable Ownership

This is a leverage play for GPP formats tonight. Doncic has been a bit banged up of late and really struggled in the previous game against the Spurs. Those factors have people shying away tonight, especially since the Mavs have a low team total and a tough matchup in Denver. However, Doncic always brings multi-category ability and triple-double upside to the table. I’ll gladly fire some GPP darts here simply on his upside at potentially single digit ownership.

Value Has Opened Up

With Serge Ibaka suspended for the Raptors tonight, we have some value to target on the interior for this team. It has been tough to peg minutes with the trio of Siakam, Ibaka, and Gasol all clogging up playing time, but the path is much clearer with Ibaka out. We should be looking at a 30+ minute role for both Siakam and Gasol tonight, and Gasol is particularly affordable in DFS circles. The icing on the cake is a great matchup against the fading, defensively challenged Lakers. Playing some Toronto players is almost mandatory this evening.

NBA Injury Rundown - Thursday, 3/14

Oklahoma City Thunder – Markieff Morris (TBD), Andre Roberson (O)

Indiana Pacers – Tyreke Evans (O), Victor Oladipo (O)

Cleveland Cavaliers – Larry Nance Jr. (O), Matthew Dellavedova (O), Tristan Thompson (O), John Henson (O)

Sacramento Kings – Marvin Bagley III (Q)

Boston Celtics – Jayson Tatum (P), Marcus Smart (Q), Daniel Theis (Q)

Los Angeles Lakers – Josh Hart (Q), Tyson Chandler (Q), Lance Stephenson (Q), Brandon Ingram (O), Lonzo Ball (O)

Toronto Raptors – Serge Ibaka (O), Fred VanVleet (O)

Minnesota Timberwolves – Karl-Anthony Towns (P), Andrew Wiggins (Q), Jeff Teague (Q), Derrick Rose (Q), Luol Deng (O)

Denver Nuggets – Torrey Craig (Q)

Ricky Rubio (hip) and Raul Neto (hamstring) available to play Wednesday

Rubio has officially been upgraded from probable and will be available to play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns after missing two consecutive games due to a tight left hamstring, while Neto has been cleared to return from a six-game absence, but his status in the rotation will be in doubt following the availability of Dante Exum, who managed to record 15 minutes of action in his first game back from an extended injury layoff in Monday’s loss. All three of Rubio, Neto, and Exum will be subject to minute restrictions in tonight’s contest, so Royce O’Neale should be able to maintain an expanded role in the rotation after averaging 34.6 minutes in his two most recent spot starts. Assuming Rubio is still able to reclaim his spot in the starting lineup, Donovan Mitchell would see a significant downturn in his usage and assist rates, making him an intriguing fade candidate in tournaments on tonight’s six-game slate.

Sam Dekker (back) listed out Wednesday

Dekker has been listed out on the Wizards’ media notes and won’t play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Orlando Magic due to lower back soreness. Prior to receiving a DNP-CD in Monday’s win, Dekker has managed to record at least 14 minutes in each of the previous four games, so it remains a bit unclear what his role in the rotation was going to be moving forward considering he’s been on the fringe of the frontcourt pecking order for a majority of the season. In his absence, Chasson Randle rejoined the lineup and logged 15 minutes, while Troy Brown Jr. has continued to absorb a nominal role in the second unit and has eclipsed the 17-minute mark just twice in his previous eight contests.

Josh Richardson (hamstring) available to play Wednesday

Richardson has officially been upgraded from questionable and will be available to play in Wednesday’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons despite dealing with a sore right hamstring. There’s yet to be any report of a potential minute restriction for Richardson, so he’ll presumably be a full-go and start at his customary small forward position in tonight’s contest. If for some reason Richardson is hampered by the hamstring ailment during the game, Rodney McGruder would likely see an uptick in playing time and has logged at least 21 minutes in each of the previous five games. Goran Dragic has continued to come off the bench over the last two games, playing fewer than 21 minutes in both contests, so that should clear the way for Justise Winslow to continue serving as the Heat’s point guard in the starting unit. Winslow has thrived in the role for a majority of the season, and he owns a 20.5% usage rate and is averaging 1.07 DraftKings and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute since the All-Star break.

Top Guard Draws Plus Matchup Tonight

Mike Conley has been outstanding so far in March, averaging 26.5 points and 6.3 assists per game and shooting 53.1% overall (including 52.4% on 3-point attempts). He will look to build on those number tonight when Memphis travels to Atlanta to take on a Hawks team that ranks last in the league in scoring defense, allowing 118.7 points per game. Conley’s defensive matchup couldn’t get better, either, with opposing guard Trae Young ranking last in the league in defensive real plus-minus (DRPM).

This Game Features a High Point Total and Big Injury News

The Golden State – Houston game tonight features the second-highest Vegas point total of the night at 230 points, and also the biggest injury news on the slate with Kevin Durant sitting out with an ankle injury. That should give a number of Warriors players an increase in usage, with Steph Curry (4.5% usage increase with Durant off the court over the past 12 weeks), Klay Thompson (7.8% usage increase), and DeMarcus Cousins (6.0% usage increase) all possible targets for our lineups tonight. Andre Iguodala could also see increased minutes off the bench at a relative bargain price. On the other side of the matchup, Houston is playing at home and favored in the game, making James Harden (38.2 PPG at home vs 34.2 PPG on the road) appealing, as well as Clint Capela (averaging 18 points and 12 rebounds over his past three games).

Paying up at Center

We have a strange six-game slate where there aren’t that many intriguing options at center. It is typically the deepest position and therefore, the toughest to break down. I see Nikola Vucevic as the clear play at the position. With the Magic vying for that eighth and final playoff spot in the East, they have tightened their rotation over the last couple of weeks. Vucevic should push for 33-35 minutes against the Wizards, who don’t rebound or defend the paint well.

Biggest Usage and FP/min Boost

Kevin Durant has been ruled out of tonight’s game against the Rockets. The natural reaction is to load up on the likes of Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and DeMarcus Cousins. While they are all strong plays in their own right, Klay Thompson sees the biggest usage boost (+9%) and the biggest FP/min boost (+0.21) with Durant off the floor this season. He’s been on fire over the last few games and has taken at least 22 shots in four straight outings.

Buying Low at the Right Time

If you pull up the game log for Chris Paul, there isn’t a lot that stands out in his recent outings. Over his last four games, he has only averaged 30 fantasy points with a decreased usage. My hope is that his ownership will take a hit, even at his discounted price point. Paul is a player that has always gotten up for big matchups and the Rockets can inch closer to the Warriors with a win over them tonight. In his last three meetings against Stephen Curry, Paul has posted 60, 66, and 50 fantasy points.