DFS Alerts

Safer Value Option

With Bagley out, Nemanja Bjelica becomes one of the top value plays on the slate. On a slate with very limited value plays, I’m locking in the one value guy I can trust. It’s also a revenge game. Bagley missed the first game against Minnesota as well, and Bjelica played 28 minutes and scored 25 actual points. After playing 30+ minutes last night, I like his chances to play at least 30 minutes again tonight.

Kyle Anderson (ankle) has a "good chance" to play Monday

Anderson is still technically listed as questionable, but he reportedly has a good chance to play and is expected to be back in the Grizzlies starting lineup for Monday’s matchup against the Golden State Warriors after missing the previous game due to a sprained left ankle. In his absence, Shelvin Mack started alongside Mike Conley in the backcourt but was abysmal from a fantasy perspective in 28 minutes of action, and he’ll head back to the bench to resume a reserve role with Anderson on track to play. Instead, it was rookie Jevon Carter who absorbed most of the available playing time vacated by Anderson and played well in his NBA debut, making it possible he sticks in the rotation ahead of guys like Wayne Selden, Omri Casspi, and maybe even MarShon Brooks given his notoriety as a stellar defensive player.

Damyean Dotson (shoulder) listed questionable Monday; Mitchell Robinson (ankle) listed out

Dotson has been listed as questionable on the most recent version of the Knicks’ injury report for Monday’s matchup against the Phoenix Suns due to a sore right shoulder that’s already forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Mitchell Robinson has been listed as out and remains sidelined with a sprained left ankle. With Trey Burke back in the fold for Sunday’s win, head coach David Fizdale really diversified the available guard and wing minutes, as none of Burke, Frank Ntilikina, Courtney Lee, or Mario Hezonja saw more than 19 minutes off the bench, while Luke Kornet was limited to less than 10 minutes as the primary backup to Enes Kanter at the center position in Robinson’s absence. As for new starting small forward Kevin Knox, he’s logged at least 35 minutes in three of his last four starts while recording a 22.5% usage rate over that span, and he still possesses immense upside at his price tag across the industry.

Khris Middleton (finger) and Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) listed as available Monday; Ersan Ilyasova (nose) listed out

Middleton and Brogdon have both been listed as available in the most recent version of the Bucks’ injury report and will play in Monday’s matchup against the Detroit Pistons after missing one game due to their respective ailments, while Ilyasova is a new addition to the injury report and has been ruled out with a nose contusion. Without Middleton and Brogdon available for Friday’s win, Tony Snell and Pat Connaughton drew the starts on the wing for Milwaukee and each logged at least 27 minutes in their spot starts. Connaughton had recently fallen out of the rotation prior to that contest, but he seems like a solid bet to absorb at least some minutes off the bench with Ilyasova sidelined. However, Ilyasova has played more than 17 minutes just once in the last five games, limiting the overall impact his absence has on the rest of the rotation.

High Usage Player Playing Heavy Minutes

When healthy, Devin Booker has posted a 33.6% usage rate this season. That top’s last years career best by 2+ percentage points and is in the 98th-percentile of all players this season. On top of being a high usage player, Booker is getting heavy minutes – he logged 36 minutes against the Timberwolves in his return from injury and should be in line for a similar workload Monday night as long as the game stays close. Additionally, this is an awesome matchup for Booker and the Suns as the Knicks are allowing the second most points per 100 possessions (114.6) and the third highest effective field goal percentage (54.8%) in the league.

Iman Shumpert (personal) out Monday

Shumpert has officially been ruled out and won’t play in Sunday’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks due to personal reasons, while Marvin Bagley III remains out and is expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks with a bone bruise in his left knee, opening up additional playing time for Nemanja Bjelica in the frontcourt rotation. Typically, when Shumpert sits out, Bogdan Bogdanovic has started at small forward, and he’ll likely do so once again after logging 37 minutes in Sunday’s win in his first spot start. De’Aaron Fox has been the main beneficiary from a usage standpoint with Shumpert and Bagley III off the court this season, as he owns a 30.0% usage rate (+4.1%), but it’s actually Bjelicia who leads the team with an average of 1.19 DraftKings and 1.20 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario and is coming off of a stellar fantasy performance in 35 minutes of action in the first leg of the Kings’ current back-to-back set.

Bad Where Kanter Excels

Kanter makes for a strong play against the Suns Monday night regardless of Mitchell Robinson’s status but Kanter would immediately become one of the best plays of the night if Robinson remains out with a sprained ankle. Kanter saw 36 minutes of court time in Sunday’s victory over the Pacers with Robinson inactive – a large uptick in the 27.2 minutes per game Kanter is averaging this season. With Robinson out, Kanter would project for 30-35 minutes of action against one of the worst defenses in the league. Phoenix is particularly bad in the areas that Kanter excels – they allow the eighth highest offensive rebounding rate (27.4%), the highest frequency of shot attempts at the rim (40.8%), and the sixth highest field goal percentage at the rim (66.1%).

Jeff Teague (ankle) questionable Monday

Teague is a new addition to the Timberwolves’ injury reports and is questionable for Monday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings due to left ankle inflammation. If Teague is unable to suit up, Derrick Rose would most likely replace him in the starting lineup at point guard, but his minute upside appears to be capped since he’s eclipsed the 33-minute mark off the bench in three of Minnesota’s last four games. Instead, it would be Josh Okogie that sees the largest bump in playing time, and he recently logged 26 minutes off the bench when Robert Covington was sidelined with a sore right knee. Rose has still been the main beneficiary from a usage standpoint, along with Andrew Wiggins, with Teague off the court this season, and he owns a 30.8% usage rate (+4.6%) with an average of 1.04 DraftKings and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.

NBA Injury Rundown - Monday, 12/17

Milwaukee Bucks – Khris Middleton (P), Malcolm Brogdon (P)

Detroit Pistons – Zaza Pachulia (Q), Glenn Robinson III (O), Ish Smith (O), Henry Ellenson (O)

Phoenix Suns – Kelly Oubre (TBD), Austin Rivers (TBD)

New York Knicks – Damyean Dotson (TBD), Mitchell Robinson (TBD), Allonzo Trier (O), Kristaps Porzingis (O)

Chicago Bulls – Zach LaVine (O), Denzel Valentine (O)

Sacramento Kings – Iman Shumpert (TBD), Marvin Bagley III (O)

Houston Rockets – Zhou Qi (P), James Ennis (O), Carmelo Anthony (O)

Los Angeles Clippers – Lou Williams (O), Luc Mbah a Moute (O), Jerome Brown (O)

Memphis Grizzlies – Kyle Anderson (Q), Chandler Parsons (O), Dillon Brooks (O)

Fred VanVleet (back) officially ruled out Sunday

VanVleet has officially been downgraded from doubtful and won’t play in Sunday’s matchup against the Denver Nuggets due to a sore back, while both Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam were already ruled out in advance of tonight’s contest because of their respective ailments. With Jonas Valanciunas and Norman Powell also sidelined, the Raptors are on track to have just 10 available players, which will allow Delon Wright and CJ Miles to start at point guard and power forward, respectively. OG Anunoby will still be in line for an increase in playing time at the forward positions regardless of the starting lineup, though Wright is still the clear minutes beneficiary with both Lowry and VanVleet unavailable. There isn’t an actionable sample size with all of the aforementioned players off the court this season, but Kawhi Leonard should thrive in this situation and already owns a 32.1% usage rate with an average of 1.33 DraftKings and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute on the year.

Iman Shumpert (hip) out Sunday

Shumpert has officially been downgraded from questionable and won’t play in Sunday’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks due to a hip contusion, while Marvin Bagley III is expected to be sidelined for at least two weeks with a bone bruise in his left knee, opening up additional playing time for Nemanja Bjelica and Harry Giles in the frontcourt rotation. Typically, when Shumpert sits out in one game of a back-to-back set, Bogdan Bogdanovic has started at small forward, though he doesn’t project to see a significant bump in minutes from the “promotion” since he’s already logged at 30 minutes in seven the Kings last nine games. De’Aaron Fox has been the main beneficiary from a usage standpoint with Shumpert and Bagley III off the court this season, as he owns a 29.7% usage rate (+4.0%), but it’s actually Bjelicia who leads the team with an average of 1.20 DraftKings and 1.22 FanDuel points per minute in this scenario.

JaVale McGee (illness) out Sunday; Tyson Chandler will start

McGee has officially been downgraded from probable and won’t play in Sunday’s matchup against the Washington Wizards due to an illness, despite managing to play 18 minutes in Saturday’s win while dealing with the same illness. In his absence, Tyson Chandler will enter the starting lineup at center and becomes one of the top value options on tonight’s slate with his likelihood of approaching 30 minutes with McGee sidelined. The rest of the remaining center minutes would likely be absorbed by Kyle Kuzma, who played a decent amount of backup center prior to the Lakers acquisition of Chandler, though it’s certainly possible Moritz Wagner or Ivica Zubac enter the rotation and receive some run at the five this evening.

Dwyane Wade (soreness) will play Sunday; Tyler Johnson (hip) available to play

Wade has officially been upgraded from questionable and will play in Sunday’s matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans after missing one game due to general soreness, while Johnson has been upgraded from probable and is available to play despite continuing to deal with a bruised right hip. Miami is still without Goran Dragic, so either Johnson or Justise Winslow will start at point guard, though Johnson appears to be the leading candidate following Winslow’s dismal performance in 24 minutes of action in Friday’s win. Derrick Jones Jr. has logged at least 23 minutes off the bench in each of the Heat’s last four games, and he appears to have passed Wayne Ellington in the rotation, making it likely Ellington continues to earn DNP-CDs with Wade now available to play. Wade has led the Heat with a 28.9% usage rate and an average of 1.09 DraftKings and 1.08 FanDuel points per minute with Dragic off the court this season.

Dennis Smith Jr. (wrist) and J.J. Barea (ankle) out Sunday

Smith Jr. has officially been downgraded from probable and won’t play in Sunday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings due to a nagging sprained right wrist, while Barea will miss his second consecutive game because of a sprained right ankle. Jalen Brunson has started at point guard in the most recent games that Smith Jr. was sidelined and flashed some upside for daily fantasy formats in an average of 27.4 minutes per game over that span, but he will share some of the facilitator duties with Luka Doncic in the starting unit. Devin Harris will also be competing for playing time at point guard, but he’s played fewer than 17 minutes off the bench in each of the Mavericks last six games.

Nikola Mirotic (ankle) out Sunday; E'Twaun Moore (leg) will play

Mirotic has officially been downgraded from doubtful and won’t play in Sunday’s matchup against the Miami Heat due to an ankle injury that’s now forced him to miss two consecutive games, while Moore has been cleared to play and will make his return from a two-game absence. Julius Randle recently replaced Mirotic in the starting lineup at power forward, and he’ll continue to be an elite option in daily fantasy formats while Mirotic remains sidelined. Randle logged 32 minutes in his most recent start without Mirotic active, which could easily be considered towards the lower end of his minute floor on most nights. Randle is also second on the team with a 28.2% usage rate and is averaging 1.33 DraftKings and 1.29 FanDuel points per minute with Mirotic and Elfrid Payton off the court this season, just further indicating how great his floor and ceiling are in this matchup and moving forward.