DFS Alerts
Who Doesn't Love Home Cooking?
Marcus Morris is a player that feeds off emotion. Even though he’s had a few good performances on the road, he’s still a player that I’d rather target at home in front of that raucous Celtics’ crowd. He should play around 30 minutes tonight off the bench, especially since Jaylen Brown is expected to remain on a minute restriction. Morris is cheap, he offers decent upside, and his ownership should be reasonable in all contests.
Best Mid-Range Option on the Board
Ben Simmons has shown some rookie tendencies in this series, while Jayson Tatum has been a bright spot for the short-handed Celtics. He got into foul trouble in Game 4, which led to fewer minutes and ultimately fewer fantasy points. Assuming he can keep his hands out of the cookie jar, he should push for 38-40 minutes in a home game. He has a high floor and a high ceiling thanks to his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
Single-Game Slate Strategy
My goal in these single-game slates is to take the best player available and then to figure out the rest from there. Joel Embiid didn’t have a great performance in Game 4, but has otherwise crushed the Celtics this season, both in the playoffs and in the regular season. In a win or go home game, I expect Embiid to play 36-38 minutes. He clearly has the highest projection of any player in the slate and it’s really easy to fit him into lineups with all of the value available in this game.
Shane Larkin ruled out Wednesday
Shane Larkin will miss game 5 tonight against the 76ers with a shoulder injury, he suffered last game. According to Brad Stevens Larkin will be out for a while. Larkin was playing about 12-16 minutes for the Celtics, so not a huge DFS Impact. Terry Rozier will get all the minutes he can handle tonight, and Marcus Smart will pick up some extra minutes.
As reported by: Tom Westerholm via twitter
Can You Fade This Chalk?
Let’s face it, T.J. McConnell is going to be the chalk tonight assuming he draws the start again. Although DFS players were slow to react to the news on Monday, you can expect huge ownership tonight as the sites didn’t adjust his price tag enough? Can you fade him at huge ownership tonight? I would lean towards no. Good cheap plays are hard enough to find on small slates and that is exacerbated when we only have one game. I would just eat the McConnell chalk and try to differentiate your lineups elsewhere.
The Forgotten Man On The Sixers Tonight?
Saric was an indirect beneficiary of the lineup shuffling in Game 4. As Covington’s minutes went down, Saric’s went up to 38. His floor was already sturdy and speculating on this amount of minutes again in Game 5 adds in a little more profit potential. Hopefully he is the overlooked man on the Sixers as DFS owners flock to McConnell and one/both of the studs.
Upside on a Short-Handed Team
Rozier has been a very nice fill-in for Kyrie Irving during Irving’s absences this season, but he has gone a little cold over the last few games. That will depress his ownership to some degree tonight, but the upside remains intact. He is now priced considerably cheaper than the stud plays for the Sixers, so this could be a nice chance to buy low when others are afraid to do so. I think we will see a focused performance from this team as they look to close out the series, and Rozier should be a big part of the action.
The Obvious Value Selection
McConnell drew a surprise start in Game 4 and was a big key to the Sixers picking up a victory to keep their season alive. I wouldn’t expect anything to change after the plan worked the other night. McConnell remains reasonably priced on all sites and is the most logical value on the board by a wide margin. On one game slates, dirt cheap plays that log 39 minutes and score over 30 fantasy points don’t grow on trees. Just play him.
Upside as the Sixth Man
He hasn’t played huge minutes in this series and has been coming off the bench, but the minutes could trend upward for Jaylen Brown with the Celtics coming off a loss. The per minute production has still been there for Brown, and he is still capable of a big performance. With his price tag still very reasonable in the DFS world, I like the point per dollar potential here. He’s a potential difference-maker, and we generally don’t get that with this cheap of a price tag on a single-game slate.
The Curse is Broken People
Chris Paul is one of the best point guards to ever play in the NBA. I wouldn’t put him with the all-time greats, but he’s certainly one of the best in my lifetime. It’s crazy that a player with this much talent has never made it out of the second round of the playoffs. The time is finally here for Paul, as the Rockets just need to pick up a win at home against a short-handed Jazz team that is coming off of back-to-back losses at home. Paul has played well in this series and should continue that tonight in Houston.
Bounce Back Spot for this Point Guard
Rajon Rondo spent most of Game 4 in foul trouble. He never really got into a rhythm and only played 31 minutes. It was by far his worst game of the series, as he scored 39, 56, and 47 fantasy points in the first three games. He should bounce back nicely in an elimation game where he could push for 38-40 minutes. He has just as much upside as Curry and Paul, yet he comes at a significant discount on FanDuel ($8,000). On DraftKings, you can pair Rondo with Paul, as they are both priced below $8,000.
Jingle all the Way!
The Jazz are playing short-handed tonight in Houston. Their starting point guard (Ricky Rubio) and their backup point guard (Dante Exum) have both been ruled out. This should open up a ton of minutes in the rotation, which is good for Joe Ingles. In Game 4, he logged 40 minutes and scored 32 fantasy points. He has now scored at least 30 fantasy points in four of his last five playoffs games. His ownership should be reasonable given the fact that most people will pay up for Durant or try to save with Moore or Iguodala.
The Safest Play In The Tier Below The Studs
If you are looking to save a little money from the Brows, Hardens, and Durants of the slate, Draymond is the guy you should be looking at. All this guy does is play a bunch of minutes and produce, as he has posted at least 50 FanDuel points in three of the four games in this series. We could see the minutes ramped up a little bit here too as the Warriors try to close out this series. With the Conference Finals unable to start until May 13th at the earliest, the Warriors could have a nice few days of rest to look forward to. So not only is he perfectly safe for cash games, but there is still plenty of profit potential for tournaments.
Give Me This Warrior In All Formats
I am all about KD tonight along with as many other Warriors as I can get. He appeared to have his one slip-up performance a few games ago, so I expect him to be locked in from here on out just like he was in Game 4. That is especially so in a close out game tonight against New Orleans. With the highest team total on the board and KD playing a ton of minutes, I think he is the safest points-per-dollar play out of all of the studs tonight. I like him in all formats.
This Guys Is Primed For a Bounce-Back Spot
It is rare that I want to be jamming in a $5,000+ priced Jae Crowder, but the guy has been a huge piece for the Jazz in the playoffs. Despite 1-11 and 1-6 shooting the past two games, he has still grinded out a decent fantasy floor. If the shooting normalizes just a little bit tonight, Crowder should be a great mid tier target on this two-game slate.