DFS Alerts
Leverage Play in Tournaments
I’m not a huge fan of the “MVP” roster spot on FanDuel because it doesn’t take salaries into account. Everyone is just going to play the most expensive player of the slate because they have the highest projection and therefore, the best chance of maximizing the 1.5x multiplier. With that said, Joel Embiid’s raw projection isn’t that much lower than that of Ben Simmons. He’ll likely have one-third of the ownership, so if he happens to outscore Simmons, it will put you at a huge advantage over the rest of the field. Embiid averaged 42 fantasy points per game against the Heat and arguably has a better matchup in the second round against the Celtics.
He's Burned Us 100 Times, But Opportunity Arises Now
I know — the entire DFS community shudders when they have to consider Marcus Smart. However, the opportunity simply has to be there now with Jaylen Brown not expected to play tonight. Smart logged 32 minutes off the bench in the Game 7 win over the Bucks, and he will be tasked with playing key roles on defense in this series. The all-around potential is there (he had four rebounds, six assists, and three steals in the last game), and it’s just a matter of him finding some consistency. I would gladly fade him on a full DFS slate like we see during the regular season, but we don’t have that luxury here on a one-game night.
Top Play of the Night
The Celtics have a very strong defense, but they don’t have a big man capable of handling the all-around ability of Embiid. In the three games that Embiid played during the Celtics in the regular season, he logged a double-double in all of them with lines of 26/16/6 and 15/10/5 in the two most recent meetings. He’s my preferred high-end spend over Simmons on the Philadelphia side of this game, and Embiid will have to have a big series for the Sixers to advance. It all starts here in Game 1.
Which Celtics Do We Target?
With Jaylen Brown doubtful for tonight, there will be more minutes and scoring opportunities on the wing for Boston. While Marcus Smart will probably be popular tonight due to his price tag, I like Jayson Tatum a little bit more due to the variety of ways he can contribute. He is one of the few Celtics players who can create his own shot, and they made need even more of that without Brown going against a tough Sixers defense. He is my favorite Celtic to target on this one-game slate.
The Stud To Pay For On A One-Game Slate
On a one-game slate, I want to lock in the top scorer on the night and differentiate my lineups elsewhere. That guy for me is Ben Simmons. While Boston was one of the best defensive teams in the league during the regular season, they will be without one of their top wing defenders tonight in Jaylen Brown. With Embiid likely having his hands full with Al Horford, I want to start most of my lineups with Simmons.
Luc Mbah a Moute will play Sunday
Luc Mbah a Moute will make his return to the lineup for game 1 today versus Utah. He had missed the opening round series with a shoulder injury. With the return of Luc Mbah a Moute, Ryan Anderson, Gerald Green,and PJ Tucker will all see their minutes reduced a little.
As reported by: Craig Ackerman via twitter
George Hill available to play Sunday
Cleveland will get back George Hill for today’s game 7 versus Indiana. Hill has missed the last three games with a back injury. Coach Lue hasn’t said yet whether or not Hill will start or come off the bench. Hill will likely see around 20 minutes today, but is a big time risk with the injury concern. With Hill coming back, Jose Calderon will fall out of the rotation.
As reported by: Dave McMenamin via twitter New Value Starter
With Rubio out, Royce O’Neale will start in this matchup. They will need his help defensively and he should see enough minutes to get to value. I know his usage will be low but the minutes will be there and the price is way too cheap around the industry.
Too Cheap On DraftKings
Now I know Myles Turner hasn’t been the greatest in this series, but if you look at his production throughout this series, $4600 is way too cheap for him. The Utah value with Rubio out is sort of unexpected and I fear that the game could blow out. I would rather take the more secure minutes in Turner in a must-win Game 7. We have also seen Turner flash upside of 50 fantasy points this season and you can’t say that about most players in this range.
Must-Win Game
Never fade LeBron James in a must-win Game 7. This Cavs place will be rocking and you better believe LeBron will do everything he can to keep this team around. I expect us to see a triple double 30-10-10 game from LeBron at the least and he should be a lot of fun to watch. I don’t think your DFS day will be fun if you are fading LeBron; just play him in this spot.
A Steady Mid-Range Play
Favors continues to put up steady production at a reasonable price tag, and he is coming off a respectable 13/8 performance in the Game 6 win over the Thunder. He will rarely knock our socks off with production, but the minutes are going to be there as long as he stays out of foul trouble, and this matchup against Houston should help him stay out of that. Favors played 39 minutes in that Game 6 win and should be asked to play a ton in this series. He’s a solid mid-range option in all formats.
Injury-Related Opportunity
Ricky Rubio is going to be out for a while, so we have some potential value with the Jazz. Defense will be a priority against the Rockets, so I would expect Jae Crowder to benefit more than the likes of Dante Exum or Royce O’Neale. O’Neale is a fine option in GPP formats, but Crowder is the safe core value play. He played 31 minutes off the bench in the decisive Game 6 win, and I would expect a similar allotment today. Crowder isn’t a sexy DFS play, but he’s your best value on a two game slate.
Pay the High Price Tag
Whenever the Cavs have needed a win in this series, LeBron James has simply taken over. Why wouldn’t we expect anything different in the decisive Game 7? James has to have a massive game if Cleveland wants to move on, and I would put him at almost 50/50 odds to end up with a triple-double in this game. He’s the one player you want to pay up for, and it’s not particularly close for me.
Can He Surprisingly Take Rubio's Minutes?
Defense against the Rockets will be very important, and while I fully expect Crowder to start the game against the Rockets for the Jazz, what happens if Crowder can’t stop PJ Tucker or is cold from the floor? I think Royce O’Neale would get the second look at playing the Rubio minutes. O’Neale showed he can play very good defense and he could be even be used as a body to put on Harden. If O’Neale can hold his own vs. Harden, he could find himself playing 30+ minutes randomly. That’s a potentially similar situation Semi Ojeleye found himself in for the Celtics versus Giannis.
LeBron Won't Go Home Quietly
LeBron has been a one-man wrecking ball this series, and now he’s back at home for this decisive Game 7. It’s just hard to envision not playing LeBron. He has played all 48 minutes in playoff games before and in a game like this I can’t imagine how he plays under 45 minutes. If the Cavs are to be competitive in this game, it’s going to be because LeBron has put up 60+ fantasy points; on two-game slates, it’s hard to catch up in raw points if you don’t have that on your rosters.