DFS Alerts
Tyler Johnson (shoulder strain) ruled out Tuesday
Johnson has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Toronto Raptors due to a strained left shoulder, despite never appearing on the Miami Heat’s injury report at any point throughout the day. Miami is still without Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow and has recalled Derrick Walton Jr. from his G-League assignment to absorb some playing time with the second unit. Wayne Ellington has consistently been seeing minutes in the low-to-mid-30s with Waiters and Winslow sidelined and figures to be the leading candidate to draw the start at the shooting guard spot in Johnson’s place. He’ll warrant consideration in tournaments on an abbreviated four-game slate but a majority of his fantasy production is tied directly to scoring, making him a realistic fade if his projected ownership begins to spiral out of control. With Johnson and the other aforementioned players off the court this season, Goran Dragic has been the main beneficiary in a limited sample size and owns a +5.2% usage rate differential, good for a 33.1% usage rate overall. On top of that, his fantasy production has spiked to 1.31 fantasy point per minute on DraftKings and 1.26 on FanDuel in this scenario as well.
As reported by: Manny Navarro via Twitter
Elite Upside on a Short Slate
Assuming Kyle Lowry is out tonight, don’t forget about DeMar DeRozan. His numbers are video game like without Lowry on the floor this year. Per our CourtIQ tool, DeRozan carries a 43.5% (!!!) usage rate with Lowry off the floor, a boost of almost 12% compared to when Lowry is on the floor. He also scores an additional 13 fantasy points per 36 minutes in those scenarios. I am comfortable with DeRozan as the anchor of any lineup tonight, and virtually all of my lineups will start with either DeRozan or Westbrook.
Increased Role Offensively?
Kyle Lowry has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens the door for a number of Raptors’ players. Serge Ibaka isn’t going to see a boost in playing time, but he will see a boost in usage. With Lowry off the floor this season, Ibaka sees a 0.24 fantasy point per minute boost, which is massive. If you apply that over a 30 minute sample size, that’s a fantasy point bump of 7.2. Ibaka is affordable and he draws a nice individual matchup against Kelly Olynyk, who has never been known for his play on the defensive end of the floor.
Kevin Durant (calf strain) probable for Wednesday
Durant returned to practice on Tuesday morning and is officially probable for tomorrow’s game against the Los Angeles Clippers, according to Golden State Warriors head coach Steve Kerr, due to a strained right calf that has forced him to miss three consecutive games. Given his likely return to game action, Andre Iguodala will be demoted back to the bench to resume his typical sixth-man role after averaging 27 minutes over the span of his three spot starts. Stephen Curry had been the main beneficiary of Durant’s absence from usage and production standpoints, but he sees his usage rate dip to 27.8% with Durant on the court this season, equating to a -4.3% decrease under his season total. On top of that, Curry’s per minute production plummets to 1.31 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.26 on FanDuel in this scenario, making him a fringe tournament option, assuming Durant is good to go, while his price tag remains elevated around the industry.
As reported by: Connor Letourneau via Twitter George Hill (personal) and Frank Mason (heel) remain out Tuesday
Hill has been ruled out and won’t play in tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Lakers as he continues to tend to a personal matter that has now forced him to miss three consecutive games. The Sacramento Kings are also still without Frank Mason and there are several ways head coach Dave Joerger could go with his starting lineup sans Hill, but Buddy Hield and Bogdan Bogdanovic should be in line for increased playing time on the wing, even though Malachi Richardson seems likely to draw the start at small forward for the third time in as many games. De’Aaron Fox is essentially the only point guard on the Kings active roster and this is one of the few times we can feel confident in his minute workload after he has averaged 32.5 minutes with Hill sidelined the past two games. Over the last month, with Hill and Mason off the court, Fox, Garrett Temple, Willie Cauley-Stein have been the main beneficiaries from a usage standpoint, as each own at least a +2.0% usage rate differential, while Cauley-Stein leads the team with a rate of 1.17 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.24 on FanDuel in this scenario.
As reported by: Sean Cunningham via Twitter Other tagged players: Frank Mason It's All About Luke Walton
We know that Kuzma carries an enticing fantasy ceiling, but his minutes seem to be at the mercy of coach Luke Walton again. With Brook Lopez back in the mix, the rotation for the Laker big men has become much more inconsistent. Kuzma has plenty of scoring punch, and (I hope) Walton will keep him on the floor if he gets hot. I can’t trust him in cash games, but Kuzma is a very interesting risk/reward GPP option on a four game slate.
A Sneaky Mid-Range Option?
Lost in the shuffle that is the disappointment of the Sacramento Kings, Willie Cauley-Stein is quietly having a solid season. He is averaging 16.9 points and 8.1 rebounds per game over his last eight contests, and the Kings draw a favorable pace up matchup with the Lakers tonight. Those Lakers also aren’t strong defensively, especially on the interior. I don’t expect the team to limit the minutes for WCS on the tail end of a back-to-back, either. Veterans like Zach Randolph are at more risk there. It’s somewhat uncomfortable to play Cauley-Stein at his current price, but that will only serve to keep his ownership lower than it should be.
Myles Turner (sore elbow) doubtful for Wednesday
Turner has been listed as doubtful on the Indiana Pacers’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Miami Heat after previously being called “questionable” by head coach Nate McMillan following Tuesday’s practice due to a sore right elbow. Domantas Sabonis did participate fully in practice, which is good news for the Pacers as he’ll be relied upon to step into the starting lineup at center for Wednesday’s contest with Turner appearing unlikely to suit up. Turner has been extremely inconsistent all season and it’s reflected in his playing time of late, as he has logged 25 minutes or fewer in six of his last seven games, while Sabonis has been tremendous in picking up his slack when given the opportunity. With Turner off the court this season, no one player substantially benefits from usage or production standpoints, but Sabonis does average 1.11 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.08 on FanDuel in this scenario, rates that should allow him to exceed his salary-based expectations on Wednesday’s slate should Turner be ruled out.
As reported by: the Indiana Pacers via Twitter Anthony Davis (ankle sprain) unlikely to play Wednesday
Davis has officially been listed as doubtful on the New Orleans Pelicans’ injury report for tomorrow’s game against the Memphis Grizzlies, and he is unlikely to play, according to head coach Alvin Gentry, due to a sprained right ankle he sustained during Monday contest. The team is optimistic that there is no structural damage to the ankle after performing X-rays following the game that came back negative, though there has been no timetable established for Davis potential absence. Assuming Davis is ruled out, Dante Cunningham would likely draw the start at power forward and has been serviceable in the previous games Davis has been sidelined this season. It would also allow Omer Asik to enter the frontcourt rotation as the backup center with minimal capacity and has yet to log more than 13 minutes in a game all year. DeMarcus Cousins becomes the clear beneficiary with Davis off the court and owns a +5.2% usage rate differential, equating to a 38.6% usage rate overall. On top of that, he has averaged 1.60 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.57 on FanDuel in this scenario, setting up as one the top plays on Wednesday’s slate at any position should Davis eventually be ruled out.
As reported by: Will Guillory via Twitter Paying Down at Point Guard
There are two point guards that I consider must plays tonight — Delon Wright and Shabazz Napier. Damian Lillard has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Napier will draw the start and will likely play 35 minutes against the Thunder. It might not be the best matchup on the board, but Napier has been terrific this season, averaging 0.93 fantasy points per minute. This play is more about opportunity than the matchup. Take advantage of a cheap starting point guard that has both a high floor and a high ceiling.
Jonathon Simmons (back spasms) a game-time decision Tuesday
Simmons went through shootaround this morning and remains listed as questionable on the Orlando Magic’s injury report for tonight’s game against the Dallas Mavericks and is expected to be a game-time decision due to back spasms that forced him to miss the previous game. Mario Hezonja started at small forward in that contest and logged a whopping 38 minutes en route to easily exceeded salary-based expectations across the daily fantasy industry. If Simmons is ruled out closer to tipoff, he’ll almost certainly draw his second start in as many games with Jonathan Isaac, Terrence Ross, and Nikola Vucevic all still sidelined with their respective ailments. With Simmons and the other aforementioned players off the court this season, Aaron Gordon and Elfrid Payton have been benefited greatly from a usage standpoint, each owning at least a +8.3% usage rate differential, while Payton has seen his fantasy production skyrocket to elite levels in those 85.6 minutes, averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.51 on FanDuel.
As reported by: John Denton via Twitter Safe Cash Game Target at Shooting Guard
Wesley Matthews isn’t a flashy play by any means, but he has been in good form recently and he draws arguably the best matchup of the slate. The Magic play at a fast pace and they have one of the worst defenses in the entire NBA. Matthews should play 35+ minutes at an affordable price point. He’s viable in both cash games and tournaments.
It's My Time To Shine
With Kyle Lowry officially ruled out for tonight’s game, Delon Wright becomes one of the best value plays on the slate. Wright is averaging .93 fantasy points per minute this season without Lowry on the floor. Miami ranks in the top ten for DVP and defensive efficiency against point guards this season, but they rank in the bottom ten in DRPM. With the uptick in minutes, I’m not too worried about the defensive matchup for Wright.
Kyle Lowry (back) ruled out Tuesday
Lowry has officially been added to the Toronto Raptors’ injury report and is listed as out for tonight’s game against the Miami Heat due to a bruised tailbone and back spasms stemming from a fall during Monday’s contest. His X-rays were negative, and he will be treated and re-evaluated daily by the Raptors medical staff, classifying his status as day-to-day moving forward. In his absence, Delon Wright or Fred VanVleet will draw the start at point guard, though Wright has the higher minute floor and potential ceiling regardless of starting lineup, making him the preferred option in daily fantasy formats. That said, DeMar DeRozan is the clear beneficiary of Lowry’s absence and owns a massive +11.9% usage rate with him off the court, equating to a 43.5% usage rate overall. Not only that, but DeRozan has also seen his per minute production skyrocket in this scenario and is averaging 1.57 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings and 1.53 on FanDuel.
As reported by: RaptorsMR via Twitter Andre Drummond (rib contusion) will start Monday
Drummond participated in shootaround this morning and has officially been cleared to play in tonight’s game against the New Orleans Pelicans after previously being upgraded to probable on the Detroit Pistons’ injury report with a right rib contusion that had forced him to miss two of the last three games. Meanwhile, Stanley Johnson also went through shootaround and remains listed as questionable due to a strained right hip flexor that has kept him sidelined for four consecutive games, but according to head coach Stan Van Gundy, he is expected to be a game-time decision this evening. With Drummond available to play, Boban Marjanovic and Eric Moreland will resume their normal reserve roles after each drawing a spot start at center in Drummond’s absence. In Friday’s blowout loss, Marjanovic was the first big man off the bench with Drummond available but saw just seven minutes of court time, so it remains to be seen if he or Moreland fill that role moving forward. That said, when Drummond is healthy, neither of them are viable options in daily fantasy formats given their minuscule minute floors.
As reported by: Rod Beard via Twitter