DFS Alerts

Notes for Wednesday-Thursday NBA Slate

Kawhi Leonard (ankle) is considered questionable after tweaking his ankle on Tuesday. For what it’s worth, he said he’ll play and that he’s just a “little sore.” He’s had a great series so far, averaging 23.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists. His rebounding rate is up 5.1% to 14.9% while his assist rate has increased 8.4% above his season average to 27.3%. Still, he carries some risk, particularly on DraftKings where late swap isn’t available. If he’s ultimately unable to go, it would provide more time for Manu Ginobili and Jonathon Simmons, both of whom are already worth consideration as value options with the Spurs going small to counter the Rockets’ lineups. LaMarcus Aldridge should see a big bump in usage and fantasy production in that scenario.

Ian Mahinmi (calf) is expected to receive a couple more minutes tonight, possibly totaling 15-16. He has replaced Jason Smith in the rotation and his workload increase could force Marcin Gortat below the 30-minute mark. Mahinmi averaged 12.6 FD points per 15 minutes of action this season, so his $2,300 salary on FanDuel isn’t terrible. Even so, he may not provide enough upside to be worth the risk.

Kelly Oubre is back after serving a one-game suspension. He could take a few minutes from both Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, and Bojan Bogdanovic as the group forms a four-man rotation. Porter and Morris seem to have secure workloads of 30+ minutes, with Morris possibly heading toward 36. Oubre seems to be ahead of Bojan as the third option, and could potentially push towards 20 minutes. Although he’s scored 12 points twice in this series, he’s very dependent on his teammates finding him for looks – 90.1% of his field goals this postseason have been assisted.

Amir Johnson will start again in Game 5. As will Avery Bradley, who’s suffered a pair of hip pointers over the past few games. Johnson only received 12 minutes in his last start and Stevens hinted that he would use him in a similar fashion. Gerald Green will be on the bench again and it’s possibly he’s removed from the rotation entirely, depending on game flow. Smart is the primary target off the bench, he’s routinely played 30+ minutes and he’s topped 20 FD points in all but one game in the playoffs despite scoring nine or fewer actual points in all but one contest. With Avery Bradley (hip) banged up – in Games 3 and 4, he scored seven and five points – Smart may be required to step up on the offensive end. He’s scored nine points in three straight games and he’s taken 17 FTAs during that stretch after taking five total in the previous seven outings.

Kawhi Leonard (ankle) said he'll play on Thursday

Leonard tweaked his ankle in the third quarter of Tuesday’s game against Houston. He looked hobbled up in the fourth, failed to score a point in the period, and was sidelined for overtime. Hopefully, we’ll get some more information regarding the injury this afternoon, but it as of now, it looks like he’ll be playing tomorrow. Although he’ll carry some risk, he’s been excellent in this series – he’s averaging 23.8 points, 9.8 rebounds, and 5.8 assists – and he’ll remain a top GPP option if he plays. Should he end up limited or out, Manu Ginobili and Jonathon Simmons would see a boost in minutes while LaMarcus Aldridge should experience a sharp rise in fantasy production. Across 314.5 minutes with Leonard off the court this season, Aldridge’s usage increased 6.1% to 32.3% and his per-minute production jumped 0.24 FD ppm to 1.18.

Coach Brad Stevens confirms he'll keep Amir Johnson in starting five Wednesday

Coach Brad Stevens will stick with the same starting five he used in Game 4 with Johnson in and Gerald Green on the bench. Johnson only received 12 minutes in the start, so he won’t be a strong fantasy option. This could remove Green from the rotation entirely, depending on game flow; he didn’t enter Game 4 until Washington was on a 26-0 run in the third quarter and Boston was in desperate need of offense. Instead, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, and Terry Rozier will likely earn the biggest workloads off the bench. Smart has routinely earned 30+ minutes while Olynyk is normally around the 20-minute mark and Rozier’s time has fluctuated. With Bradley a bit banged up, Smart could become more involved in the offense; he’s scored nine points in three consecutive games after failing to reach the mark in five straight. By playing more aggressive on the offensive end, he got to the line for 17 FTAs during that stretch, which is a positive sign – he had taken five total in the six previous postseason contests. Olynyk is in play on DraftKings with their flexible roster construction, but there isn’t much need for him on FanDuel with several better options above him. Rozier is just $2,500 on FD, which makes him worth consideration as a high-risk option. Although he’s been involved regardless of game flow, he picked up 12 of his 22.5 minutes in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when it was pretty much out of hand, and he scored 18.5 of his 23.9 FD points in the final frame.

Ian Mahinmi (calf) could receive bump to 15-16 minutes Wednesday

Mahinmi returned from a nine-game absence last Thursday, earning 10 minutes. His workload increased to 13 on Sunday and coach Scott Brooks appears ready to bump him further tonight. Although he doesn’t have the most appealing upside under these restrictions, he averaged 12.6 FD points per 15 minutes of action this season and he’s just $2,300 on the site. He will continue to steal minutes from Marcin Gortat, possibly forcing him below the 30-minute mark.

Patty Mills will start ahead of Dejounte Murray on Tuesday

Coach Gregg Popovich is moving the rookie Murray to the bench in favor of Mills. It will be his first start of the postseason. Mills has been forced into a larger role following Tony Parker’s injury and he’s maintained his normal production numbers over the past two games: 20.5% usage rate and 0.79 FD ppm. However, over the course of the postseason, he’s only played 67.1 minutes with Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Pau Gasol. In that time, he returned 0.46 FD ppm and his usage dropped to 17.3%. Although this trend wasn’t as severe in terms of fantasy production during the regular season, Mills still saw a notable dip to 0.61 FD ppm across 369.2 minutes with the group. On the positive side, he could earn more minutes in the starting role to make up for a lower per-minute pace.

Amir Johnson expected to remain in starting five Wednesday

Coach Brad Stevens is expected to stick with the same starting five he used in Game 4 with Johnson in and Gerald Green on the bench. Johnson only received 12 minutes in the start, so he won’t be a strong fantasy option. This could remove Green from the rotation entirely, depending on game flow; he didn’t enter Game 4 until Washington was on a 26-0 run in the third quarter and Boston was in desperate need of offense. Instead, Marcus Smart, Kelly Olynyk, and Terry Rozier will likely earn the biggest workloads off the bench. Smart has routinely earned 30+ minutes while Olynyk is normally around the 20-minute mark and Rozier’s time has fluctuated. With Bradley a bit banged up, Smart could become more involved in the offense; he’s scored nine points in three consecutive games after failing to reach the mark in five straight. By playing more aggressive on the offensive end, he got to the line for 17 FTAs during that stretch, which is a positive sign – he had taken five total in the six previous postseason contests. Olynyk is in play on DraftKings with their flexible roster construction, but there isn’t much need for him on FanDuel with several better options above him. Rozier is just $2,500 on FD, which makes him worth consideration as a high-risk option. Although he’s been involved regardless of game flow, he picked up 12 of his 22.5 minutes in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when it was pretty much out of hand, and he scored 18.5 of his 23.9 FD points in the final frame.

Eric Gordon will start ahead of Ryan Anderson on Tuesday

With Nene out for the playoffs, Ryan Anderson is switching to backup center. That change forces Eric Gordon into the starting lineup and should provide extra minutes for both him and Lou Williams. Although Gordon has played well in this series, averaging 0.87 DK ppm, he’s struggled when playing with the first unit. Across 124.1 minutes on the court with Beverley, Harden, Ariza, and Capela this season, his usage dipped 7.2% to 15.8% and his per-minute pace tumbled to 0.52 DK ppm. It’s possible Houston rolls with a seven-man rotation, according to beat writer Jonathan Feigen. Montrezl Harrell is not a recommended fantasy option as he only received 2 minutes of garbage time after Nene went down. If the Rockets add an eighth man, it seems like it would be Sam Dekker, who earned five minutes overlapping the first and second quarters on Sunday. He only earned 1.2 FD points in that stretch while he picked up 6.2 FD points in five minutes of garbage time.

Avery Bradley (hip) will play Wednesday

Bradley has suffered a pair of hip pointers over the past few games, but he’s all set to play tomorrow. After scoring 14 points in Game 2, when he went to the locker room a couple of times, he scored seven and five points in Games 3 and 4. It seems like the injury has had a legitimate impact on his play. Hopefully, two days of rest will treat him well, but he’ll carry some added risk tomorrow night.

Boris Diaw will remain in starting five Monday, as expected

Coach Quin Snyder wanted to slow everything down in Game 3 so he reinserted Boris Diaw in the starting lineup in place of Joe Johnson. In doing so the Jazz were able to bring the pace to 94.54 from the 97.78 average over the first two meetings. Diaw also helped improve their defensive rating to 109.5 from their 113.3 rating in the two games Johnson started. Diaw finished with 26 minutes to Johnson’s 24. It would make sense for Snyder to employ a similar strategy tonight as it was their best game of the series and the only one in which they held a lead. Diaw scored ten points in Game 3 and collected a personal playoff-high five rebounds. His scoring seems a little suspect as his 12 FGAs doubles his previous postseason high and he only attempted two in 20 minutes of Game 1. Overall, he’s averaging 0.69 FD points in this series, but that’s an improvement of 0.10 over his normal production.

Gordon Hayward averaging 33.3 points over last three full games at home

Outside of Game 4 against the Clippers when Hayward was dealing with food poisoning, he’s scored 29 or more points in every home game this postseason. He seems to respond to the home crowd as he’s averaging 22.8 points across Utah’s six road games. His boost in scoring is partially due to a bump in FTAs – he’s taken 12.0 per home game and 5.7 on the road – and his habit of taking more attempts from the field (19.6 FGAs to 17.5). With Gobert back in full, his rebounding predictably took a hit; after averaging 8.0 across six full games against the Clippers with a 12.7% rebounding rate overall, he’s grabbing 3.7 per game against the Warriors as his rate has tumbled to 5.3%. He posted a 9.0% rate during the season, so he should be able to pick that up a bit. Although his rebounding production has dropped, he’s increased his assist rate by 4.7% to 22.9% and he’s contributed at least four in all three second-round games. All in all, he’s averaging 1.0 FD ppm with Mack on the court and Hill off this postseason – 1.06 in 35.7 minutes at home – and he’s pushed past 40 minutes in two consecutive games. He’ll undoubtedly receive as much time as he can handle tonight in Utah in an elimination game. With plenty of attention focused on Durant and Leonard (and for good reason), Hayward could sneak by with lower ownership, which makes him an interesting pivot.

George Hill (toe) ruled out Monday

Hill will be sidelined for the third game in a row due to a lingering toe injury. Shelvin Mack is expected to start again in his place. The backup point guard earned 37 minutes in Game 3 and returned another excellent value on his ridiculously low salary on FanDuel. He remains $2,500 on the site today, so he will undoubtedly be chalky if he gets another start. Across 179.1 minutes against the Warriors this season, Mack is averaging 0.76 FD ppm with a 24.3% usage rate, improvements of 0.09 and 3.7% over his average, respectively. Those are great numbers for a guy who’s $2,500. He’s tougher to fit in on DK at $4,500, but he’s scored 24.5 or more DK points in both starts; he’ll be a solid target there as well.

George Hill (toe) remains questionable Monday

No updates have been given from the Jazz regarding Hill’s status tonight. He’s likely going to be a game-time decision tonight, but we should know prior to lock since the Jazz-Warriors game is the only one going. If he can’t go, Shelvin Mack would likely draw the start again. The backup point guard earned 37 minutes in Game 3 and returned another excellent value on his ridiculously low salary on FanDuel. He remains $2,500 on the site today, so he will undoubtedly be chalky if he gets another start. Across 179.1 minutes against the Warriors this season, Mack is averaging 0.76 FD ppm with a 24.3% usage rate, improvements of 0.09 and 3.7% over his average, respectively. Those are great numbers for a guy who’s $2,500. He’s tougher to fit in on DK at $4,500, but he’s scored 24.5 or more DK points in both starts; he’ll be a solid target there as well.

Eric Gordon expected to start Tuesday

With Nene done for the season, Ryan Anderson will serve as the backup center off the bench. Coach Mike D’Antoni is expected to use Gordon in the starting five as he did in the second half of Game 4. Although Gordon has played well in this series, averaging 0.87 DK ppm, he’s struggled when playing with the first unit this season. Across 124.1 minutes on the court with Beverley, Harden, Ariza, and Capela this year, his usage dipped 7.2% to 15.8% and his per-minute pace tumbled to 0.52 DK ppm.

Nene (groin) will miss remainder of postseason

Nene exited Game 4 in the first quarter after he suffered a left adductor tear. He’s being shut down for the season, which will provide Clint Capela a larger workload and force Ryan Anderson to the bench so he can serve as his backup in a stretch five role. Capela has been a per-minute beast in this series, averaging 1.32 DK ppm. He got into foul trouble early in the second quarter of Game 4, but he picked up 16 in the second half before getting pulled with 2.5 minutes remaining due to the blowout. He could earn 30+ minutes tomorrow night, which makes him a great deal on DraftKings at $5,500. Although he’s $1,000 more on FanDuel, it’s not prohibitive in this situation.

10-game MLB slate highlights Monday's DFS action; one NBA game on tap

Anytime there is a game at Coors Field, the MLB slate for the day is an interesting one. To fade or not to fade is the question and that’s a question many will certainly be asking themselves today as the Cubs are coming off a grueling 18 inning loss to the Yankees last night, had to fly across the country to Denver, and will have to rely on Jake Arrieta to shoulder the load with an exhausted bullpen. Add in a somewhat effective SP for the Rockies thus far this year in Antonio Senzatela and there are questions aplenty as to how to approach this slate. There is only one other game with a run total at 9 runs or higher (Washington at Baltimore) so pitching will be a focal point for building lineups. Jacob deGrom would appear to be the clear top SP of the day facing the punch-less Giants offense but arms like Matt Moore of the Giants, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy, and Blake Snell are all viable in their own right. The highest Vegas run totals outside of the Coors Field game are the Nationals, Orioles, Dodgers, and Yankees and all four teams have viable bats you can utilize in your lineups. The Blue Jays also look to return to form as they likely get both Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki back in the lineup today.

The NBA has a small two-day, two game slate that will get started tonight when the Golden State Warriors look to close things out in Utah. Draymond Green will look to continue his excellent playoff performances but there should be plenty of places to look in a game that should be close as the Jazz strive to fight off elimination. The big names like Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, Gordon Hayward, and Rudy Gobert will all be popular options but it’s finding value from the role players that will make the difference. Make sure to read all of our NBA Playoff content to get the skinny on who the viable options are and who to avoid.