DFS Alerts
D.J. Moore 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, D.J. Moore is expected to be the fantasy WR22. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR20 at pick 41, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 43 as of July. We currently expect a 23% target share which amounts to a projection of 136 targets (Rank 20) and 1116 receiving yards (Rank 15) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Might this be the year Moore finally breaks out? He should be one of the main beneficiaries of the Panthers’ quarterback change. Darnold may or may not find success in Carolina, but he is a more capable downfield passer than Bridgewater. Moore is expected to line up in the slot, which Darnold loves to target (think Jamison Crowder). If the duo can mesh, Moore will finally be able to reach his ceiling in Joe Brady’s pass-friendly, college-style offense.
Christian McCaffrey 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Christian McCaffrey is expected to be the fantasy RB1. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB1 at pick 1, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 1 as of July. We currently expect 1288 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 3) with a 69% share of team carries. We also expect a 20% target share which amounts to a projection of 120 targets (Rank 1) and 781 receiving yards (Rank 1).
Once again McCaffrey is the projected RB1, and there’s little reason to doubt him other than injury concerns. It was a high-ankle sprain followed by a shoulder injury that derailed his 2020 campaign, but neither should be lingering into 2021. As we saw prior to 2020, McCaffrey is a fantasy football superhero when healthy. In any given game he can be the leading receiver in terms of fantasy points as well as the leading rusher. This is pretty simple: Take McCaffrey if you have the first pick in managed or Best Ball leagues. I’ll also be eyeing down early Carolina DFS stacks that include McCaffrey, Darnold, and a Panthers receiver.
Michael Carter 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Michael Carter is expected to be the fantasy RB39. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB31 at pick 89, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 116 as of July. We currently expect 529 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 40) with a 34% share of team carries. We also expect a 6% target share which amounts to a projection of 34 targets (Rank 41) and 190 receiving yards (Rank 39).
The optimism from the fantasy community is inclusive of some significant speculation on his ability to increase ownership of the workload here as the season progresses. As of now, he’s not even officially earned a role in the regular season. He’s competing with Tevin Coleman for early down and goal line work, while Ty Johnson is a threat to earn passing down work and LaMical Perine lurks as a prior regime holdover with some talent. I don’t fault anyone for having the forward thinking mentality that he could ascend, but at this moment that’s merely speculation. He’s most useful as part of an anchorback and WR heavy build as a potential upside windfall.
Tevin Coleman 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Tevin Coleman is expected to be the fantasy RB50. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB50 at pick 177, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 178 as of July. We currently expect 429 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 45) with a 34% share of team carries. We also expect a 3% target share which amounts to a projection of 18 targets (Rank 66) and 123 receiving yards (Rank 58).
Coleman has proven to lack dimension in the NFL aside from having a history of injury. The combination of limited availability and limited versatility doesn’t serve his playing time expectations well. The Jets have a quadrangle of backs competing for usage in this offense, with rookie Michael Carter in the driver seat for overall usage on the season thanks to his age and the Jets status as a rebuilding franchise. Coleman is a punt RB candidate for the players with the biggest imagination in best ball, but the median performance leaves you wanting more in the biggest portion of his possible outcomes.
Zach Wilson 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Zach Wilson is expected to be the fantasy QB21. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB24 at pick 181, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 153 as of July. We currently expect 4216 passing yards (Rank 16) and 23 passing touchdowns (Rank 24) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 198 yards rushing (Rank 17) with a 13% share of team rush attempts.
Sporting a 97th percentile college YPA and 93rd percentile QBR at BYU, Wilson enters his rookie campaign with relatively high expectations considering the franchise he enters was on the brink of eternal failure under the guidance of the previous coaching regime. He’ll gain the benefits of new weaponry that includes fellow rookie Elijah Moore, and recent breakout with the Titans Corey Davis. While it is fair to expect Wilson to deliver competent fantasy stats, it is rather unfair to expect him to wildly outperform his peer group at the position. For this reason, you’re only drafting him as part of broader strategy to wait on QB and hope you can load the rest of your roster with studs.
Trey Lance 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Trey Lance is expected to be the fantasy QB33. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB14 at pick 121, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 206 as of July. We currently expect 1,817 passing yards (Rank 34) and 12 passing touchdowns (Rank 33) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 170 yards rushing (Rank 21) with a 10% share of team rush attempts.
Despite currently sitting behind Jimmy G on the Niners depth chart (per head coach Kyle Shanahan), the public clearly is thinking/hoping that Lance ultimately lands the job based on where they are drafting him. And with his duel-threat ability and reports coming out of camp that he has been outperforming Jimmy G, I can’t say that I blame them. In Lance’s last full season at North Dakota State (2019), he rushed for 1,100 yards and 14 TD’s in his 16 games. And the dude has apparently been throwing darts all throughout training camp. You can pretty much throw projections out the window at this point in the preseason, as there is no telling if/when Lance gets the job. If he gets it sooner rather than later though, the upside here feels endless.
Jimmy Garoppolo 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jimmy Garoppolo is expected to be the fantasy QB31. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB32 at pick 234, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 204 as of July. We currently expect 2,331 passing yards (Rank 31) and 15 passing touchdowns (Rank 31) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 27 yards rushing (Rank 36) with a 3% share of team rush attempts.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan is telling the media that there currently is no quarterback competition on the San Francisco 49ers; Jimmy G is the guy. But by almost all indications, rookie Trey Lance has outperformed Jimmy in the early days of training camp. While we do currently have Jimmy as the QB1 on our depth chart, we are also still projecting plenty of snaps for Lance. As a result, there are clear paths to both plenty of upside and plenty of downside for Jimmy depending on how this whole thing plays out. For me, I’d be much more willing to take my shots on Lance. Between the early reports out of camp and his duel-threat ability, the path to his already higher ceiling seems much more clear.
Trey Sermon 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Trey Sermon is expected to be the fantasy RB47. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB27 at pick 76, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 167 as of July. We currently expect 319 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 50) with a 16% share of team carries. We also expect a 6% target share which amounts to a projection of 36 targets (Rank 39) and 226 receiving yards (Rank 31).
The injury to Jeff Wilson has resulted in us moving Sermon, the Niners third round pick in this year’s draft, up to RB2 on the Niners depth chart behind Raheem Mostert. However, for Sermon to pay off where he is currently getting drafted, that would probably require Mostert to miss some time. And while there was some chatter about that a few days ago due to Mostert being seen wearing a knee brace in practice, it doesn’t sound as if that is going to be much of an issue. The Niners backfield has been a headache to dissect for the past few seasons, and it doesn’t appear as if that situation will get much easier. It’s just that a few of the names are different this time around.
Raheem Mostert 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Raheem Mostert is expected to be the fantasy RB26. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB30 at pick 87, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 72 as of July. We currently expect 879 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 21) with a 39% share of team carries. We also expect a 6% target share which amounts to a projection of 33 targets (Rank 42) and 220 receiving yards (Rank 34).
Add Mostert to the list of many 49ers skill position players who missed a chunk of games in 2020. For Mostert, he only played in eight games, which is what led to just 521 rushing yards and 2 TD’s. When he did suit up last season, he was pulling in 47.3% of the team’s rushes. We have him projected for well below that this season, and yet it still looks like there is some value to be had in drafts. Assuming he can stay on the field, we should be expecting a bounce-back season from Mostert in 2021.
Brandon Aiyuk 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Brandon Aiyuk is expected to be the fantasy WR34. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR25 at pick 50, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 60 as of July. We currently expect a 20% target share which amounts to a projection of 111 targets (Rank 41) and 841 receiving yards (Rank 41) during the 17 week fantasy season.
If you just look at 2020 totals, Aiyuk easily surpassed teammate Deebo Samuel in the counting stats. That’s easy though; he played five more games. While we have both of these guys with a projected target share of 20% heading into the 2021 season, we have Deebo (WR26) coming in slightly ahead of Aiyuk (WR34). And since Deebo is currently getting drafted as WR35—and Aiyuk as WR25—the value currently lies with Deebo. But make no mistake about it, we are talking about razor thin margins here. With how close the two are projecting in targets, receptions, and yards, it very well might just come down to who 1) stays healthier, and/or 2) falls on the right side of touchdown variance.
Deebo Samuel 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Deebo Samuel is expected to be the fantasy WR26. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR35 at pick 72, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 56 as of July. We currently expect a 20% target share which amounts to a projection of 111 targets (Rank 38) and 883 receiving yards (Rank 35) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Deebo put together a solid rookie campaign back in 2019, racking up 57 receptions (on 81 targets) for 802 yards and 3 TD’s. After appearing in only seven games in 2020 though, those numbers took a pretty big hit (33 receptions, 391 yards, 1 TD). However, it is quite possible that is leading to him being an overlooked fantasy asset as we inch closer to the 2021 season. As noted above, we have him narrowly missing the Top 25 wide receivers heading into this season, and he is currently being drafted well behind that as things stand now. If you want exposure to what should be a sneaky good offense this year—while getting some value along the way—I think Deebo is your guy.
George Kittle 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, George Kittle is expected to be the fantasy TE3. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE3 at pick 25, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 29 as of July. We currently expect a 25% target share which amounts to a projection of 137 targets (Rank 3) and 1,155 receiving yards (Rank 3) during the 17 week fantasy season.
After missing eight games in 2020, Kittle should be back atop the elite tight ends in 2021 assuming he can stay healthy. In his 30 games across the 2018 and 2019 seasons, he averaged 86.5 receptions (on 121.5 targets), 1,215 yards, and 5 TD’s. The targets will undoubtedly be there again this season, as Kittle figures to be the #1 pass-catcher in this offense whether Shanahan sticks with Jimmy G or turns things over to the rookie, Trey Lance. Once you get past the tight end trio of Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Kittle, there is a pretty meaningful drop-off at this position down to the TE4 (Mark Andrews).
Rashaad Penny 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Rashaad Penny is expected to be the fantasy RB62. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB55 at pick 189, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 222 as of July. We currently expect 304 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 53) with a 20% share of team carries. We also expect a 2% target share which amounts to a projection of 13 targets (Rank 73) and 66 receiving yards (Rank 72).
With our projections being slightly higher than the field on Chris Carson, it stands to reason that we are slightly behind the field on Penny. And while that can be a little scary considering Penny finally appears to be fully healthy (and “in the best shape of his life”), I do find it pretty telling that the Seahawks did not pick up Penny’s fifth-year option for 2022. Still, the opportunity will be plentiful for Penny if something happens to Carson (who did happen to miss four games in 2020). It’s not a bad idea to get a piece of this offense in the later rounds, but don’t jump the gun and take Penny sooner than you should be.
Will Dissly 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Will Dissly is expected to be the fantasy TE34. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE46 at pick 312, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 240 as of July. We currently expect a 7% target share which amounts to a projection of 43 targets (Rank 34) and 267 receiving yards (Rank 37) during the 17 week fantasy season.
In terms of value, our projections vastly prefer Dissly to his tight end teammate, Gerald Everett. In regards to Everett, our projections are giving him a 10% target share, which is higher than any Seahawks tight end saw last season (Greg Olsen was the leader at 9.6%). That still has Everett outside of our Top 25 tight ends, and he is getting drafted as if he is a Top 15 tight end. Dissly, on the other hand, is getting drafted way later than our projections think he should be, and that is with a measly 7% target share. Remember, Dissly did see his opportunities increase later in the 2020 season, as he pulled in an 8.8% target share in Weeks 13-17 with Olsen mostly on the shelf. I think you could do a lot worse than Dissly in the later rounds of your drafts.
Gerald Everett 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Gerald Everett is expected to be the fantasy TE26. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE15 at pick 142, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 190 as of July. We currently expect a 10% target share which amounts to a projection of 61 targets (Rank 24) and 380 receiving yards (Rank 26) during the 17 week fantasy season.
With Greg Olsen now retired and Jacob Hollister now in Buffalo, the Seahawks brought in Everett from their division rival, the Rams. And apparently, that has the industry thinking Everett is going to be a Top 15 tight end this season. Clearly though, our projections disagree. We are projecting a 10% target share for Everett, which is higher than any Seahawks tight end saw in 2020 (Olsen was the leader at 9.6%), and that still leaves him short of cracking the Top 25 tight ends in our projections. The Seahawks do still have Will Dissly, who saw his opportunities increase in the last several games of the season (8.8% target share in Weeks 13-17). Tread carefully on Everett here.