DFS Alerts
Patrick Mahomes 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Analysis coming Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Patrick Mahomes is expected to be the fantasy QB1. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB1 at pick 35, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 40 as of July. We currently expect 4914 passing yards (Rank 1) and 36 passing touchdowns (Rank 1) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 278 yards rushing (Rank 9) with a 15% share of team rush attempts.
Slowing down Mahomes isn’t impossible, but an improved offensive line heading into the 2021 season will make it more difficult than ever. Super Bowl aside, the only thing seemingly capable of deterring the Texas gunslinger is an injury. The important question is if fantasy football and betting markets overvalue the perrenial talent. After all, he’s not a lock to be QB1 and selecting him at his current ADP comes with a significant opportunity cost.
Antonio Brown 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Antonio Brown is expected to be the fantasy WR44. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR40 at pick 79, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 84 as of July. We currently expect a 17% target share which amounts to a projection of 104 targets (Rank 47) and 783 receiving yards (Rank 52) during the 17 week fantasy season.
After joining the Bucs in Week 9 just in time for their Super Bowl run, the 33-year-old receiver decided to re-sign and try to run it back in 2021. Brown presented a mixed bag of results during his nine games on the field in 2020. He combined for only three receptions in the wild card and division round, then gained merely 22 yards on five receptions in the Super Bowl. Both of his biggest games came against Atlanta, including an 11-reception, 138-yard performance in early January. Considering how often Brady targetted Brown (63 times) from Week 9-17, the veteran receiver still provides a reasonably high floor and ceiling for fantasy owners
Mike Evans 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Mike Evans is expected to be the fantasy WR19. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR15 at pick 34, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 39 as of July. We currently expect a 21% target share which amounts to a projection of 134 targets (Rank 22) and 1104 receiving yards (Rank 19) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Evans’ current ADP is closer to his ceiling than his median expected outcome. The Bucs’ receiving corps is filled with talent, and while Brady will undoubtedly pass the ball a lot, it’s unlikely Evans will get enough looks to pay off as WR15. When it comes to DFS and choosing between Evans and Godwin, it might be a zig-zag situation from week to week, the best play being whoever projects for less ownership.
Chris Godwin 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Chris Godwin is expected to be the fantasy WR13. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR19 at pick 40, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 33 as of July. We currently expect a 22% target share which amounts to a projection of 139 targets (Rank 18) and 1110 receiving yards (Rank 17) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Godwin isn’t the first Bucs receiver being taken in fantasy drafts, but maybe he should be. Realistically, Godwin can lead the Bucs in targets, receptions, yards, and fantasy points (PPR and 0.5 PPR) — as RotoGrinders currently projects. Godwin predominately lines up in the slot (64% in 2020), a position Brady is notorious for targetting. Last year, Godwin played four fewer games than Mike Evans but trailed him by only five receptions and 166 yards. Considering the Bucs’ aggressive, pass-heavy scheme, Godwin is a reasonable bet to lead the league in receiving yards at 30-1 and an even better bet to pay off his ADP in PPR and 0.5 PPR formats.
Tom Brady 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Tom Brady is expected to be the fantasy QB7. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB11 at pick 102, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 93 as of July. We currently expect 4565 passing yards (Rank 4) and 32 passing touchdowns (Rank 3) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 39 yards rushing (Rank 35) with a 6% share of team rush attempts.
Fresh off yet another Super Bowl, Brady enters the 2021 season ready to mount a title defense in Tampa. He might be 43 years old, but there’s little reason to doubt his fantasy production. Last year, Brady only got better as the season progressed. This year it won’t take the Bucs two months to find their chemistry. Expect Brady to continue to throw the ball downfield with Bruce Arians calling the plays, and to one of the more talented receiving groups in the NFL. Surrounded by talent and with a pass-happy coach, Brady provides a safe floor for fantasy owners and we happen to think there’s some value at his current ADP as QB11.
Hayden Hurst 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Hayden Hurst is expected to be the fantasy TE31. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE30 at pick 226, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 233 as of July. We currently expect a 8% target share which amounts to a projection of 48 targets (Rank 31) and 303 receiving yards (Rank 31) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Hurst disappointed fantasy owners in 2020. Despite the departure of Julio Jones, he’s likely to disappoint fantasy owners again. Hurst will get some looks as the Falcons send out plenty of multi-tight end sets, but it will be Pitts who will get most of the targets.
Russell Gage 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Russell Gage is expected to be the fantasy WR58. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR52 at pick 105, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 117 as of July. We currently expect a 17% target share which amounts to a projection of 102 targets (Rank 49) and 660 receiving yards (Rank 60) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Russell Gage burst onto the scene with a 9-reception, 114-yard Week 1 performance in 2020. He mostly struggled from there, though, even when Jones was out. Don’t overestimate the impact of Jones’ departure on Gage’s productivity, especially with the arrival of TE Kyle Pitts playing the role of a glorified slot receiver.
Kyle Pitts 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Kyle Pitts is expected to be the fantasy TE5. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE4 at pick 46, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 53 as of July. We currently expect a 20% target share which amounts to a projection of 121 targets (Rank 4) and 889 receiving yards (Rank 5) during the 17 week fantasy season.
The Falcons traded for Hayden Hurst a year ago, but they couldn’t resist taking Pitts with the no. 4 overall pick in the 2021 Draft. Don’t for a second think Hurst’s presence takes away from Pitt’s upside. Atlanta will employ plenty of two-tight end sets, and Pitts will be a consistent threat downfield. There’s a lot of hype surrounding Pitts as a playmaker. Don’t be surprised if he ends up trailing only Kelce, Waller, and Kittle in receiving yards amongst tight ends.
Mike Davis 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Mike Davis is expected to be the fantasy RB20. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB21 at pick 55, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 51 as of July. We currently expect 989 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 12) with a 58.% share of team carries. We also expect a 9% target share which amounts to a projection of 51 targets (Rank 22) and 251 receiving yards (Rank 27).
Reasons for concern: Atlanta’s personnel are less than optimal for the running game and the Falcons could struggle to move the ball on offense. Reasons for optimism: Their defense isn’t stopping anyone. Atlanta will have to score points to keep up or they’ll be playing from behind, which will set Davis up to be one of the most-targeted backs in the NFL.
Calvin Ridley 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Calvin Ridley is expected to be the fantasy WR5. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR5 at pick 16, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 19 as of July. We currently expect a 28% target share which amounts to a projection of 169 targets (Rank 5) and 1414 receiving yards (Rank 5) during the 17 week fantasy season.
With Julio Jones gone, Calvin Ridley is ready to officially take over as the no. 1 option for quarterback Matt Ryan, but that’s not all. If Ryan performs, Ridley has a chance to become the league’s top receiver. We witnessed Ridley’s ceiling in the very scenario last year, as he eclipsed 100 yards on double-digit targets in 5-of-7 games with Jones absent. While I love almost everything about Ridley’s situation for fantasy football, oddsmakers seem to be giving him too much touchdown equity. The line is set as high as 10 at BetMGM, but we project him to find pay dirt closer to seven times. Touchdowns are awfully noisy, the Falcons have offensive concerns, and rookie TE Kyle Pitts could take away touchdown looks.
Ian Thomas 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Ian Thomas is expected to be the fantasy TE49. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE49 at pick 317, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 274 as of July. We currently expect a 6% target share which amounts to a projection of 36 targets (Rank 43) and 170 receiving yards (Rank 52) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Ian Thomas is as cheap as it gets for a reason. He hit pay dirt only once in 2020 and never eclipsed 30 yards receiving in a game. The Panthers brought in former Arizona TE Dan Arnold, who should be the team’s top tight end.
David Moore 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, David Moore is expected to be the fantasy WR112. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR137 at pick 317, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 267 as of July. We currently expect a 5% target share which amounts to a projection of 32 targets (Rank 114) and 255 receiving yards (Rank 108) during the 17 week fantasy season.
David Moore had the occasional big game in Seattle, but don’t expect him to get more opportunities in Carolina. The Panthers drafted rookie Terrace Marshall in the second round despite having other needs, showing just how much they like the 21-year-old from LSU. He’s Moore’s most significant hurdle to meaningful fantasy production in 2021.
Sam Darnold 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Sam Darnold is expected to be the fantasy QB26. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB27 at pick 193, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 181 as of July. We currently expect 4188 passing yards (Rank 17) and 24 passing touchdowns (Rank 22) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 173 yards rushing (Rank 21) with a 10% share of team rush attempts.
Watch for Sam Darnold to rebound after leaving the Big Apple. Unlike his time with the Jets, the Panthers have a competent play-caller in Joe Brady who has experience running a fast-paced, spread offense. Darnold is a solid value play in Week 1 DFS formats, and Carolina stacks that include Christian McCaffrey and no. 1 receiver D.J. Moore are viable during the first quarter of the season.
Terrace Marshall 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Terrace Marshall is expected to be the fantasy WR77. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR64 at pick 133, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 161 as of July. We currently expect a 14.% target share which amounts to a projection of 83 targets (Rank 74) and 557 receiving yards (Rank 76) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Keep your eyes on this rookie from LSU. He’s already familiar with Joe Brady’s offensive system, as Brady was his OC in Baton Rouge. Marshall has fresh legs after opting out of the 2020 college football season, and he’s competing with David Moore for the third spot on the depth chart. Don’t let that discourage you, though. Marshall has already made his coaches go “wow” more than once. It’ll be interesting to see how the competition between the rookie and Moore plays out during the preseason.
Robby Anderson 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Robby Anderson is expected to be the fantasy WR25. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR28 at pick 57, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 55 as of July. We currently expect a 23% target share which amounts to a projection of 139 targets (Rank 17) and 1032 receiving yards (Rank 24) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Reunited with quarterback Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson will play a pivotal role in whatever success Carolina’s offense has. As he proved last year, he’s not just a field-stretcher but is a versatile receiving option when his team is passing. Anderson will be a solid value in the early weeks of DFS if you’re looking to get contrarian with Carolina stacks.