DFS Alerts
A Real Cheap RB With Some Upside
Crowell had a whole lot of hype on him coming into the season, but with the lack of a passing game for CLE and Duke Johnson stealing way too much of his work, he hasn’t lived up to expectations. Well, guess what? This game Duke Johnson might not play and they have Corey Coleman back in the lineup to alleviate some of the passing game woes. If Duke Johnson doesn’t end up suiting up this week, Crowell is a near lock for me and if not, I’m still gonna have a lot of exposure to him at just $3,900 on DK.
Highest Floor and Ceiling Combo on the Thanksgiving Slate
It finally happened last week. Allen broke out in a big way and people are finally going to realize that he’s one of the best WRs in the NFL. They raised his price pretty significantly, but he’s still underpriced. He has 11 redzone targets, the third-most targets inside the 10 (with 7), and is eighth in targets in the league with 93. He only failed to reach nine targets in three games this season, and they were some of the toughest matchups a WR can get. He gets a matchup against Dallasm who are average in the league against both WR1s and pass D in terms of DVOA. Allen is likely to come in with high ownership this week, but I don’t mind eating it. Whenever fading someone with high ownership you generally do so when they have a decent shot at not hitting value, but when you have a guy like Allen who is guaranteed to get high volume, you should have no such worries. Lock him in.
All Signs Point to a Huge Game From This WR
If there’s one thing you need to know about Crowder, you need to know they are going to go to him a lot in this game. Over the last 3 games, Crowder has gotten 13, 11, and 8 targets and the Redskins just lost Chris Thompson for the rest of the season (one of their main targets in the passing game) and Reed is unlikely to play. I don’t see any way that Crowder isn’t heavily involved in this game and going up against a Giants team that ranks in the basement in pass DVOA, he should do a whole lot of work with those targets.
The Biggest Boom or Bust WR in the League in a Big Boom Spot
Hilton is averaging around the amount of points he should at this price, but he’s been wildly inconsistent. This year he has 2 games over 30, 3 over 27, and 5 games of 6 DK points or less. If you look at the times that he’s actually blown up, all have them have been in a dome against a bad defense (I’m calling Hou without Watt bad vs. the pass). This matchup lines up perfectly with those as the Titans rank 26th against the pass in terms of DVOA and just got slaughtered by Antonio Brown for 35+ points. They have been giving up huge games to WR1s all year long and now is just another time where it’s going to happen again.
This is the Week We Have Been Waiting For From This WR
There are a few cheap WRs this week that are really appealing and Westbrook is the best play of them all. He gets a matchup against ARI who is middle of the pack against passing in terms of DVOA, but that’s with the best CB in the NFL, Patrick Peterson shutting down one side of the field. With Peterson guarding Lee, we can expect a much bigger workload for the rest of the JAX WRs. Westbrook only played around half the snaps last week, so he should be in for the majority of the game this week. People might not be on him because of what happened last week, but Bortles has actually played decent this year, and the weather in the game last week was terrible. You can expect 15 points from Westbrook this week with a chance at 25.
Low Ownership, Three-Game Slate, and an Underperforming TE (AKA a Great GPP Spot)
Let me start out by saying that it is not a smart decision to play Henry in cash, but he’s a great GPP play. Henry is one of the top TEs in the league, he just hasn’t gotten a whole lot of work so far this season. He gets a matchup against Dallas that worse at guarding the TE than I am at walking up a flight of stair (I am not a healthy person). They are ranked 23rd in DVOA vs. the TE and gives up a higher than average target rate against the TE. This is a spot where you can get a top TE at low ownership on a three-game slate, and realistically he may have the highest upside on the slate at the position.
The Third Option in this Offense is the Best Play
While most people playing a pass catcher for the Raiders generally goes for Crabtree or Cooper, Cook is the guy that’s been tearing it up recently. Over the last four weeks Cook has 26 targets and is averaging 13 DK points per game. He gets a matchup against Denver, who gets slaughtered by opposing TEs. They rank 27th in DVOA vs. the TE and give up the third-most targets to the TE. With Denver’s elite two CBs in Harris and Talib guarding the two stud OAK WRs, you can expect Cook’s workload to be much bigger this week.
Low Owned TE in a Great Matchup
My favorite team in the league to target TEs against is Cleveland and it’s not close. They rank dead last in terms of DVOA vs. the TE and they give up the largest target share against the TE (over 30% of the opposing team’s offenses go to the TE). The last time that Kroft faced the Browns, he posted 2 TD’s on 7 targets and 24.8 DK points. This week Kroft gets the matchup and he is one of their top red zone threats and they have a implied team total of 24, so he should be in for a huge workload. Don’t sleep on him
Paxton Lynch officially named starter for Week 12
It’ll be Lynch’s first action of 2017. In 2016, his rookie year, he made three underwhelming appearances (two starts) in which he completed 59% of his passes for 5.99 yards per attempt while throwing two touchdowns and an interception. He leaned on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders a ton, sending 60% of his passes in their direction. He showed a preference for Sanders, looking his way 9.7 times per game compared to 7.0 for Thomas. Lynch will have a friendly spot for his first start; the Raiders remain dead last in pass DVOA (per FO) after getting whooped by Tom Brady (339 yards, three TDs). They’ve allowed the highest completion percentage (72.3) and passer rating (113.3) while giving up the third-most yards per attempt (8.0). It’ll be hard to trust Lynch but the spot warrants some consideration at his price, particularly on DraftKings where he’s $4.4k. Lynch is available for $6.2k on FanDuel. The Broncos (+5) are currently implied to score 19.25 points – the line hasn’t moved since the quarterback change was initially reported yesterday.
Tyrod Taylor will start for Bills Week 12; Kelvin Benjamin won't practice Wednesday, Jordan Matthews and Mike Tolbert will be limited
Taylor will return to the starting lineup against the Chiefs on Sunday. While he doesn’t post the biggest numbers, he rarely turns the ball over. Following Nathan Peterman’s five-pick performance, that’s something the Bills decided to value. On the flip side of that, by not forcing the ball into bad situations – and perhaps being too conservative – he ends up taking a lot of sacks. Despite playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, which has been charged with the sixth-fewest total pressures (87, per PFF), Taylor has been sacked the fourth-most in the league (29). Fortunately, the Chiefs have posted the third-lowest pressure rate and rank 23rd in adjusted sack rate (per FO). While their pass defense has allowed the 12th-most yards per attempt (7.4) and fifth-most yards per game, they’ve limited QBs to the lowest completion percentage (54.6%). In terms of fantasy production, they’ve given up the 11th-most points to passers. Part of that comes from allowing the seventh-most QB rushing yards per game (18.7). The Chiefs play man zone the most in the league which really helps runners like Taylor, who’s averaged 27.5 rushing yards per game and has scrambled for three scores over the past four games. While his notorious road splits add some risk, his ability to generate production with his legs could help him overcome them in a favorable matchup. It’s not clear which receivers he’ll have available this week. Although Benjamin avoided major knee damage last weekend, he’s not quite ready to return to the practice field. Head coach Sean McDermott considers him day-to-day which lands him in the questionable area heading into the weekend – if he can’t return by Friday, he’ll likely sit this one out. His absence would spread targets to Zay Jones, Charles Clay, Deonte Thompson, and Matthews if he plays. Matthews and Tolbert were both inactive in Week 11 but they’ll participate in Wednesday’s session and try to suit up in Week 12. Matthews would have a terrific spot against the struggling Steven Nelson, who’s allowed 1.6 yards per cover snap (sixth-most if he qualified) and two touchdowns when lined up inside since returning to action in Week 8. Jones will avoid Marcus Peters most of the game as he only runs 31% of his routes in the corner’s area. If Benjamin suits up, he’ll deal with Peters often, although the CB hasn’t exactly been shutting receivers down this year. He’s 26th in yards per cover snap (0.92), 19th in cover snaps per reception (13.5), and he’s allowed three touchdowns along with a 63% catch rate.
Other tagged players: Kelvin Benjamin, Jordan Matthews, Mike Tolbert Looking To Be Different
There are a lot of ways to be different on this Thanksgiving Day slate, and I think Theo Riddick is one of the smartest ways to be different. He’s had some really good success on Thanksgiving in the past, and he sets up as a great value option on full point PPR sites. The Vikings defense has been really good this season, and I’d be shocked if we don’t see the Lions use Theo more than Ameer Abdullah this week. Pass catching running backs have been a weak spot for this strong defense, and his first game against the Vikings should scare people away. Abdullah ran the ball well in that game, and I don’t see him doing that again. At his current DraftKings price, Theo would only need four or so catches for 50-yards to pay off his price tag. If we get that and add a touchdown, Theo is going to be the best point per dollar running back on the slate.
My Sneaky Large Field GPP Play
When thinking about a 3-game slate, you’re willing to take a shot on just about anyone. For me, Travis Rudolph is going to be that shot I’m taking with my turkey on Thanksgiving. With Shepard likely out, Rudolph will see the field in three-wide wide receiver sets. He’s played over 50% of the snaps in each of the three games without Shepard, and he has six targets in back-to-back games without Shepard. With the Giants likely playing from behind on Thursday night, I expect them to be throwing the ball a lot, and I expect Rudolph to be less than 5% owned.
Jordan Reed didn't practice Tuesday
Reed hasn’t practiced all week and appears to be on the doubtful side of things for Thursday. If he can’t go, Vernon Davis will continue to operate as Washington’s top tight end. It’s a great matchup for Davis. A tight end has scored on the Giants in every game but one this season and they’ve allowed the third-most yards (75.2/g and fourth-most receptions (5.9/g) to the position. Davis has picked up five red zone targets over the past three games and he’s picked up 8.7 total looks per game during that stretch. He’s delivered an insane 11.0 yards per target this season and his 16.0 yards per catch leads all tight ends (13th overall). We’re expecting him to be the most popular tight end on the Thanksgiving slate.
Other tagged players: Vernon Davis Bargain Veteran QB Looks to Pull Another Upset This Thursday
Eli Manning and the Giants rank as one of the most disappointing stories in the NFL this season, with only two wins on the year and a coach on the hot seat. They scored a longshot win this past Sunday against the Chiefs, however, and now they have an opportunity to start a winning streak against a Washington pass defense that ranks 27th in passing yards per attempt (7.7) and 25th in yards per game allowed (249). With both teams lacking in pass defense and running backs, this game has a surprising chance to turn in to a shootout. The Giants receiving corps has been decimated by injury this season, and it bears watching whether Sterling Shepard will be able to make the start on Sunday, but Eli Manning still has rookie tight end Evan Engram who has averaged 8.8 targets and scored four touchdowns over the past five games. This is a tournament play for the brave only, but as the cheapest quarterback on the Thanksgiving slate at $5,100 on DraftKings and $6,700 on FanDuel, Eli Manning has some upside this Thursday.
Redskins LG Shawn Lauvao placed on IR; C Chase Roullier will miss a couple of weeks
Washington continues to battle a litany of injuries on their offensive line; Lauvao was their second starting linemen placed on the IR Tuesday. The other was C Spencer Long, whose backup, Roullier, had surgery to repair a broken hand earlier today. Fortunately for the Redskins, the Giants haven’t had a productive pass rush this season; they’re currently in dead last with 14 sacks. They haven’t had a strong run defense either, ranking 22nd in adjusted line yards and 27th in rush DVOA heading into Week 11. They were able to contain Kareem Hunt to 73 yards on 18 carries though, as they got some key defenders back in the lineup. Samaje Perine will be the workhorse back for Washington with Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley both out. He had his best game of the season last week, crossing 100 yards and scoring – both firsts of his career. He’s a much better deal on DraftKings this week at $5.0k compared to $7.2k on FanDuel and he currently projects as our RB7 in points-per-dollar.