DFS Alerts

Sophomore Wide Receiver Shapes Up as Thanksgiving Value Play

Washington had high expectations coming into this season for sophomore Josh Doctson, and they had enough confidence in the 2016 first-round pick that they allowed both of their starting receivers from last season, Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson, to leave the team in free agency. Injuries and inexperience contributed to Doctson having a slow start again this year, but with favored receiving options Terrelle Pryor and Jordan Reed out, Doctson has stepped up with 7 targets in each of the past two weeks. The Giants pass defense has struggled this season ranking near the bottom of the league in passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed, and at only $4,700 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel, Doctson could be a valuable bargain play this Thanksgiving.

Injuries at Running Back Could Mean Even More Thanksgiving Passes for this QB

If you’re looking for a quarterback for Thanksgiving this Thursday, Kirk Cousins is looking like the consensus top option, particularly on FanDuel with their flatter pricing structure. The running game in Washington has been decimated by injuries over the past few weeks, with both Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson going down with season-ending injuries. This leaves Cousins fully in control of the offense, and he’s averaged over 37 pass attempts over the past six games. Washington is taking on a Giants team that ranks 27th in passing touchdowns allowed (20), 25th in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.7), and 29th in passing yards per game allowed (264). With Washington sitting as 7-point favorites, the benefit of playing at home, and an inexperienced running game, Cousins could easily put up the top score at the quarterback position this Thursday.

Texans claimed Andre Ellington

Houston needed some depth in their backfield following D’Onta Foreman’s season-ending injury. Ellington will likely work into some type of passing down role in the coming weeks – it’s not yet clear if he’ll be ready to play this weekend.

Report: Paxton Lynch will start Week 12

This comes from Denver radio host Benjamin Allbright, although beat writer Nicki Jhabvala reports the Broncos QBs “have yet to be informed about a decision on the starter.” It’ll be Lynch’s first action of 2017. In 2016, his rookie year, he made three underwhelming appearances (two starts) in which he completed 59% of his passes for 5.99 yards per attempt while throwing two touchdowns and an interception. He leaned on Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders a ton, sending 60% of his passes in their direction. He showed a preference for Sanders, looking his way 9.7 times per game compared to 7.0 for Thomas. Lynch will have a friendly spot for his first start; the Raiders ranked dead last in pass DVOA before getting whooped by Tom Brady (339 yards, three TDs). They’ve allowed the highest completion percentage (72.3) and passer rating (113.3) while giving up the third-most yards per attempt (8.0). It’ll be hard to trust Lynch but the spot warrants some GPP consideration at his price – $4.4k on DraftKings, $6.2k on FanDuel.

Update: ESPN’s Dan Graziano confirms the Broncos will start Lynch on Sunday. An official announcement is expected tomorrow.

John Brown expected to be "out a few weeks"

The Cardinals promoted WR Carlton Agudosi from their practice squad earlier today in anticipation of Brown (toe) being sidelined for a few weeks, although he isn’t expected to make an impact right away. Larry Fitzgerald, Jaron Brown, and J.J. Nelson will be the top three receivers against the Jaguars this weekend. Jacksonville has boasted the best pass defense in the league which currently ranks first in: yards per attempt (5.9), passer rating (64.5), sacks (40), and fantasy points allowed to QBs (9.92/g) and WRs (21.42/g). It’s the polar opposite of their Week 11 matchup with the Texans. Fitzgerald posted another great game, hauling in 9-of-10 targets for 91 yards and a score. Although Blaine Gabbert will probably continue to lean on the vet, he’ll have his work cut out for him against Aaron Colvin in the slot. When lined up inside, Colvin has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per cover snap (0.83, per PFF) and he hasn’t been charged with a single touchdown. While Nelson is in line for the biggest boost in snaps and opportunities, the mix of A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, both of whom have returned sub-50% catch rates and are top ten CBs in fantasy points per route defended, may prove to be too much for him to handle.

Sterling Shepard isn't practicing Tuesday

Shepard has been dealing with migraines that kept him sidelined on Sunday. After getting in a limited practice yesterday, he was downgraded to a DNP Tuesday, a bad sign heading into a Thursday game against the Redskins. Without Shepard last game, Evan Engram and Travis Rudolph ended up pacing the team in targets with six apiece while Eli Manning spread the ball around to ten different players. Engram already has a strong outlook against a Redskins defense giving up the most yards and fourth-most PPR points to tight ends, and his volume should rise if Shepard is out. Engram projects as our TE1 on the Thanksgiving slate.

Mike Davis isn't expected to play Week 12; RG Oday Aboushi ruled out

Despite leaving early in the third quarter, Davis led the backfield with 59 yards against the Falcons Monday night. With Davis down, J.D. McKissic, who’s typically been limited to a pass-catching role, was the primary back and finished with 12 touches while Eddie Lacy saw three. Thomas Rawls is expected to return to the running back rotation with Davis sidelined but it could be McKissic’s backfield against the 49ers on Sunday. While Seattle’s running back group has been completely miserable this season, they couldn’t have a much better spot and it appears as though McKissic could see a workload big enough to exploit the spot. The 49ers are giving up the most PPR points per game to RBs while allowing the most receiving yards and second-most receiving touchdowns to the position. At just $3.7k on DraftKings, McKissic looks like a solid value; it’s definitely a situation worth monitoring this week.

Cowboys LT Tyron Smith is practicing Tuesday, expected to play Thursday

With Dallas set to play the Chargers on Thanksgiving, it’s great timing for Smith’s return. Over the past two weeks, his replacements, Chaz Green and Byron Bell, have combined for 16 total pressures allowed from the left tackle position. Put together, that’s five more than any other tackle during that span. The Chargers were third in adjusted sack rate heading into Week 11 (per FO) but they’ll have a tough challenge with Smith protecting Dak Prescott’s blindside. Smith will also provide an improvement on the ground; he’s currently PFF’s 27th-ranked tackle in run blocking. Alfred Morris handled 63% of the Cowboys running attempts and appears to have hold of the featured role. He was productive against one of the best run defenses last week, picking up 91 yards on 17 attempts. While the Eagles were first in adjusted line yards heading into the weekend, the Chargers were 14th and the Bills ran all over them. As a team, they piled up 173 rushing yards and two scores on 22 attempts, although most of the game was garbage time. LeSean McCoy racked up 114 on 13 carries and found the end zone. Morris won’t have much involvement in the passing game, limiting his upside, but he could certainly pay off his $4.8k DK salary if game flow works in his favor. Currently, the game is a pick’em with a 48-point total.

Am I The Top Turkey Day Point-Per-Dollar Play?

It stands to reason that Perine could be the top point per dollar selection on the Thanksgiving slate because he is still relatively affordable, and Washington is barren in the backfield without Rob Kelley and Chris Thompson. The matchup is also glorious against a Giants team that has really struggled this season. Perine should see 20+ touches in this game. Even though he is bound to be chalky in tournaments, I’ll gladly roster him and differentiate my lineups in other spots.

Redskins C Spencer Long placed on IR

Long has been battling a quad injury for weeks which will require surgery. His backup, Chase Roullier, has a hand injury and is questionable for Washington’s Thanksgiving date with the Giants. Fortunately for the Redskins, the Giants haven’t had a productive pass rush this season; they’re currently in dead last with 14 sacks. They haven’t had a strong run defense either, ranking 22nd in adjusted line yards and 27th in rush DVOA heading into Week 11. They were able to contain Kareem Hunt to 73 yards on 18 carries though, as they got some key defenders back in the lineup. Samaje Perine will be the workhorse back for Washington with Chris Thompson and Rob Kelley both out. He had his best game of the season last week, crossing 100 yards and scoring – both firsts of his career. He’s a much better deal on DraftKings this week at $5.0k compared to $7.2k on FanDuel and he currently projects as our RB7 in points-per-dollar.

Cowboys LB Sean Lee ruled out for Week 12

Lee is still dealing with a hamstring injury that forced him from Week 10 early and caused him to miss Week 11 entirely. The linebacker is the Cowboys most important defender against the ground game and his absence has been felt the past two weeks. The Falcons picked up 134 yards and a score on the ground in Week 10 while the stable of Eagles backs tore the Cowboys up for 215 yards and two scores (6.5 ypc) this past Sunday. With the Cowboys set to take on the Chargers on Thanksgiving, Melvin Gordon appears to be in a solid spot.

Allen Hurns won't practice Tuesday

Hurns was inactive last week with an ankle injury. Keelan Cole served as the number two receiver with rookie Dede Westbrook working in as the third; both players received six targets and hauled in three catches. Considering it was Westbrook’s first game since being activated off the IR, it’s possible he picks up a bigger workload this weekend if Hurns sits again. The Jaguars visit the Cardinals on Sunday which could leave Marqise Lee under Patrick Peterson’s shadow. Although DeAndre Hopkins was able to get the best of Peterson on several plays, including a touchdown grab, it’s hard to trust Lee to replicate that type of success. Although a Peterson shadow would provide Westbrook a relatively better matchup with Tramon Williams, it’ll still be very challenging. Williams has earned PFF’s 15th-best cover grade and since entering the starting lineup in Week 7, he’s limited receivers to a 48% catch rate, 0.75 yards per cover snap, which would be ninth if he qualified, and he hasn’t given up a TD. Cole would see Tyrann Mathieu in the slot and have the best spot of the group – Mathieu is the 69th cover corner and he’s given up the ninth-most yards per cover snap when lined up inside (1.31). If Hurns is able to play without limitations, he would resume his slot duties against Mathieu while Westbrook and Cole may rotate as the third receiver on the outside.

Thomas Rawls a healthy scratch for MNF; Lacy, McKissic and Davis will be active

Rawls is a healthy scratch for the second time in his career. That’ll leave the backfield work to Eddie Lacy, J.D. McKissic and Mike Davis, with Lacy expected to lead the charge on non-passing downs and McKissic likely to work in on third-down and as a change-of-pace to Lacy. The Seahawks have had loads of trouble running the ball this season, but Rawls’ inactive status does make both Lacy and McKissic interesting targets on the prime-time slate. Russell Wilson and the passing attack is still where most of the Seattle production is going to come from.

The Cardinals waive RB Andre Ellington

After being a healthy scratch for yesterday’s game against the Houston Texans, the Arizona Cardinals have made it official and have waived Andre Ellington from their active roster on Monday afternoon. The void Ellington leaves behind as the team’s former passing down back could open up opportunities for D.J. Foster or even Kerwynn Williams as a change of pace back from Adrian Peterson, who can be expected to continue working as the Cardinals feature back until further notice.

Sterling Shepard (illness) and Orleans Darkwa (hamstring) limited in practice Monday

Shepard has been listed as a limited participant in the New York Giants’ practice on Monday due to migraines after missing yesterday’s game and should be considered as questionable for Thanksgiving Day despite not yet receiving a designation. If Shepard is able to suit up, he’ll continue to work as the Giants top wide receiver, though that title doesn’t hold a ton of merit with how bad the Giants offense has looked in recent weeks. As for Orleans Darkwa, this is the first time we’re hearing of his hamstring injury, which is slightly concerning for his availability on Thursday night. The Giants seem to have settled on Darkwa as their feature running back since their Week 8 bye, as Darka has accumulated at least 16 touches in all three games. If he’s cleared to play, he’ll draw a plus matchup with the Redskins 31st-ranked scoring defense that suffered a monumental collapse at the hand of the New Orleans Saints’ yesterday afternoon.