DFS Alerts
Colts CB Rashaan Melvin and LB John Simon inactive for Week 8
As beat writer Kevin Bowen put it, “it will be Vontae Davis…and others trying to slow down A.J. Green.” If Davis is the best one they have available, the Colts may be in trouble considering he’s PFF’s 99th cover corner. Melvin only played seven snaps last weekend and Blake Bortles tore them up for 330 yards (cc: @BortlesFacts). With Melvin out, Indy was forced to use Kenny Moore outside. Although he’s only played limited snaps, he would have PFF’s 107th cover grade if he qualified. Green and Andy Dalton will be popular DFS targets and for good reason. Green is commanding a 30.2% market share of Dalton’s passes and he’s third in the league with 2.63 yards per route run. LB Jonathan Simon injured his neck last week and his absence will be a downgrade for their rushing defense – he’s currently 17th among edge defenders with nine run stops. Even with Simon, the Colts have been horrendous against the rush over the past four weeks, allowing RBs to pick up the second-most yards per game (136.5) and the most rushing scores (1.25/g). Across the three games prior to Week 7, Joe Mixon averaged 19 touches per game. He only garnered ten last week but he should get back on track in Week 8 with a bit of a squeaky wheel narrative working in his favor – assuming (hoping, praying) Marvin Lewis doesn’t punish him too much for squeaking – and it looks like a great matchup. He’s an interesting pivot option off of or addition to the Dalton/Green stack, especially considering his low salary across the industry ($5.9k FD, $4.7k DK). Vegas provides the Bengals a 10.5-point edge at home and the running back could potentially be paired with the Cincy D/ST which currently ranks 12th in adjusted sack rate (per FO). Meanwhile, the Colts offensive line has been charged with the third-most sacks (15) and Brissett went down ten times against the Jaguars last week.
Other tagged players: A.J. Green, Andy Dalton, Joe Mixon
Ed Dickson, LB Luke Kuechly, S Kurt Coleman, and K Graham Gano active for Week 8; C Ryan Kalil inactive
Kalil suffered a setback during Week 7’s game and he’ll be sidelined this weekend. His replacement, Tyler Larsen has struggled in pass protection this season, allowing the second-most pressures among centers (16, per PFF) and he’s been charged with the most sacks (3). Dickson will suit up, as expected. Since his huge game against the Lions in Week 5, when he capitalized on broken coverage a couple times on his way to 175 yards, the tight end hasn’t topped 36 yards. He’s remained involved in the passing game though, averaging 6.5 targets over his last two outings. While the Buccaneers, his Week 8 opponent, aren’t considered efficient against tight ends by DVOA (23rd, per FO), they’ve only allowed 3.67 receptions per game to the position, the sixth-lowest rate in the league. Coleman is will make his return after a three-game absence. He could help bolster their already-strong rushing defense; in 2016, he was eighth among safeties with a 5.2% run-stop rate and he was fifth when lined up within eight yards of the line of scrimmage (7.9%, per PFF). On top of that, they’re going to get Kuechly, PFF’s sixth-ranked LB, on the field. Even without Kuechly and Coleman against the Bears in Week 7, they held Jordan Howard to 65 rushing yards on 21 attempts. As a team, they’re fifth in rush DVOA while their line ranks eighth in adjusted line yards (3.78). Not surprisingly, they’ve given up the seventh-fewest PPR points to RBs this season. Doug Martin, who recorded a season-high 22 touches last week, will have his work cut out for him against this group.
Other tagged players: Graham Gano, Carolina Panthers, Doug Martin Buccaneers CB Brent Grimes and CB Robert McClain inactive for Week 8
Tampa Bay will be without their top two corners when they take on the Panthers this afternoon. The Bucs moved the poor-performing Vernon Hargreaves to the slot last weekend against the Bills, pulling McClain to the outside. He actually performed well; he didn’t allow a reception on four targets, although the splint-wearing Jordan Matthews wasn’t the biggest threat. McClain’s and Grimes’ absence will likely force Hargreaves back to the outside though, to primarily battle Kelvin Benjamin. Last season, Benjamin averaged a 5.5/8.0/81.5/0.5 line against Hargreaves and the Bucs. So far this year, the corner has given up the fifth-most yards (404) and the fifth-most yards per cover snap (1.8) while allowing a 68.3% catch rate. The injuries could provide Ryan Smith more snaps at corner – he’ll probably start with Grimes out – which further improves this spot for Carolina’s passing attack. Back in Week 3, he stepped in for the injured Grimes and was a disaster, allowing five receptions for 118 yards and two touchdowns. They’ll either use one of their safeties in the nickel corner role or dig further into their bench. Cam Newton must be licking his chops, the Buccaneers were already allowing the third-most fantasy points to QBs before these injuries. He’s currently our top points-per-dollar quarterback on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Cam Newton, Kelvin Benjamin Raiders CB David Amerson and S Karl Joseph inactive for Week 8
Amerson and Joseph are both starters for Oakland; with both sidelined, it provides an upgrade for Tyrod Taylor and his pass-catchers. Even better, the Bills are home this weekend where Taylor has averaged 24 fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. That represents a 7.5-point improvement and he more than doubles his touchdown production (1.55/g at home to 0.7/g away). Taylor also scoots for an extra 19 rushing yards per game (47.4 to 28.4). He currently projects in our top six QBs in terms of points-per-dollar on both FanDuel and DraftKings with projected ownership of 5% and 7.5%, respectively. That makes him an appealing GPP option and he can be stacked with LeSean McCoy against a Raiders defense allowing the seventh-most receiving yards to RBs (52.3/g).
Other tagged players: Tyrod Taylor, LeSean McCoy Marquise Goodwin active for Week 8; RT Trent Brown inactive
Eagles CB Ronald Darby isn’t ready to make his return yet, leaving the Eagles with Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson as their primary corners. Rasul Douglas and Jaylen Watkins rotated in for nickel packages last week with Robinson moving to the slot, and safety Malcolm Jenkins often rolls up into slot coverage. Goodwin is expected to primarily see a mix of Robinson and Douglas. The former is PFF’s fourth-ranked cover corner but he’s 60th in yards per cover snap (1.39) while the latter is the 60th cover corner and 63rd in yards/snap (1.5). Goodwin is a boom-or-bust type option that’s seen as many as 11 targets this season but only exceed six twice. His teammate Pierre Garcon has seen double-digit looks on four occasions but he’s only passed the century mark once and hasn’t found the end zone. He’ll battle Jalen Mills the most, who’s allowed the most receptions (41), sixth-most yards (400), and fifth-most touchdowns (4) this season. There is some legitimate weather concerns in Philly today – it’s expected to be very wet and a little windy – and the game total has fallen from 48 to 43.5 points, leaving the 49ers with an implied total of 15.25 as 13.0-point road dogs.
Bills S Jordan Poyer and CB E.J. Gaines inactive for Week 8; LG Richie Incognito active
Gaines’ absence will likely force Shareece Wright into the starting lineup. That’s great news for Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Since Gaines first suffered the injury in Week 4, Wright has been earning more snaps and he’s allowed 14 completions on 18 targets. Despite only starting in one of the three weeks and playing 57% of the defensive snaps, he allowed the third-most receptions and second-most yards per cover snap. On top of that, he’ll have weaker safety support over the top with Poyer out – he’s PFF’s top-graded coverage safety. Incognito is dealing with an ankle issue he’ll play Sunday, as expected. The 11th-ranked pass-blocking guard (per PFF) is a big reason why the Bills offensive line is seventh in pass blocking efficiency. They should be able to handle the Raiders pass rush which currently ranks 27th in adjusted sack rate (per FO).
Other tagged players: Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree Danny Amendola active for Week 8; CB Stephen Gilmore inactive
The receiver is dealing with a hyperextended knee but he’ll play through it this weekend. He’ll have a tough matchup with the Chargers. They’re currently eighth in pass DVOA and coming off a shutout victory over the Broncos. Amendola will primarily line up across from Desmond King in the slot. While Casey Hayward and Trevor Williams are both among the top 11 cover corners by PFF grading, King is 43rd. When lined up inside, he’s 20th in yards per cover snap (1.32) and 26th in cover snaps per reception (7.8, per PFF). It provides the slot receiver the better matchup but he’s only played 47% of the snaps the past two weeks – and he could be limited again due to the injury. Over that same period, Hogan has run 45% of his routes from the slot, so he may be able to avoid Williams’ coverage (Hayward is expected to shadow Cooks) a solid amount and take advantage of a more favorable matchup. He currently leads the team with ten red zone targets and five touchdowns. Gilmore (concussion) was expected to play but apparently wasn’t cleared to do so; it’s an upgrade for outside receivers Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams. Top receiver Keenan Allen is running 48% of his routes on the outside.
Dontrelle Inman inactive for Week 8
Inman just joined the Bears this week via trade, so he’s not ready to suit up.
49ers LB Reuben Foster and CB K'Waun Williams inactive for Week 8
San Francisco will be down two defensive players in Philly this afternoon. Williams’ absence will force the 49ers to go to their bench to defend the slot. That sets up a nice spot for Nelson Agholor, who’s caught exactly four balls and scored a touchdown in each of the past three games. He’s not a huge target guy, averaging 5.0 per game, but he’s been a touchdown machine – he’s hauled in the fourth-most receiving touchdowns (5) after finding paint in 5-of-7 games. Adding to his upside, he’s seventh in league with 166 yards on passes with a depth of target 20+ yards downfield. He’ll have to contend with some weather though. Due to impending rain, the game total has dropped from 48 to 43.5 but the Eagles still have the highest implied total on the board (28.25).
Other tagged players: Nelson Agholor Wet conditions expected for SF-PHI, ATL-NYJ, and DAL-WAS games
There are some notable conditions moving through the Northeast today. We’re expecting it to be very wet at points in all three of these games and there are flash flood watches in New York and Philly. The game totals have dropped in each of these contests – SF-PHI has fallen from 48 to 43.5, DAL-WAS from 51 to 46.5, and ATL-NYJ from 46.5 to 43.5. It may be best to keep players from these games in GPP lineups with the added risk but they should come with lower ownership. The weather may encourage teams to run more often, potentially helping Devonta Freeman and Ezekiel Elliott the most. The Jets are giving up the tenth-most PPR points to RBs this season, setting up a favorable spot for the former. The latter will face Washington, whose defense has limited RBs to the third-fewest rushing yards per game. However, they’ve seen the third-fewest attempts and their defensive line is 23rd in adjusted line yards (per FO). Dallas is already running the ball the ninth-most in the league (45.2%) and their offensive line is sixth in adjusted line yards. With the Redskins down three starters on the offensive line, they could struggle to score and game flow could turn in Elliott’s favor.
Melvin Gordon will play Week 8
Adam Schefter reports Gordon’s foot injury is an issue but he’ll play through it, as expected. He may be better suited for GPPs with the injury risk but the running back still has an appealing spot. New England’s top interior defender, Malcom Brown, is out and the Patriots are already 31st in adjusted line yards (per FO). Gordon has posted 3.4 ypc but could exploit this matchup to improve that rate. He’s the 2nd-most targeted Charger and the Patriots are 29th in receiving RB DVOA while allowing the 2nd-most receiving yards (67.9/g) and 5th-most receiving TDs (0.43/g) to the position. He’s our RB6 on DraftKings but is projected with just 5.0% ownership.
Michael Thomas and Willie Snead will be active for Week 8
This was expected. Thomas is dealing with a knee issue but it’s not a serious concern; he was removed from the injury report Friday. Perhaps the bigger problem is his matchup this weekend with Prince Amukamara and the Bears. Amukamara has posted the third-best cover snaps per reception rate (23.7) and allowed the seventh-fewest yards per cover snap (0.58, per PFF). As a unit, the Bears are now tenth in pass DVOA and over the past four weeks they’ve allowed the seventh-fewest receptions to the position (9.25 per game). Even Amukamara’s counterpart, Kyle Fuller, has stepped up his game recently. Over the past three games, he’s been targeted the third-most in the league (26) but he’s held receivers to an impressive 42% catch rate. They’re solid inside too – slot corner Bryce Callahan is fifth in cover snaps per reception (13.9) and third in yards per cover snap (0.53, per PFF). Snead spoke earlier this week about how he’s feeling fully healthy for the first time all season. He could work into a larger role this Sunday; in his first and only appearance, he played just 21 snaps. Even so, he’s got a tough spot and an uncertain role.
Other tagged players: Willie Snead Redskins RG Brandon Scherff isn't expected to play Week 8
Washington has already ruled out C Spencer long and LT Trent Williams while RT Morgan Moses remains questionable. It’s not great timing considering Dallas’ defensive line is ninth in adjusted sack rate (per FO). They’re anchored by DeMarcus Lawrence, who has already amassed 9.5 sacks this season, the second-most in the league, and ranks fourth among edge defenders in pass-rushing productivity (per PFF). He’s capable of single-handedly destroying offenses as he did in Week 3 against the Cardinals when he recorded three sacks and 13 total pressures. He rushes from the left side of the defensive formation, so Moses is a very important piece of this game. After opening as 1-point favorites with an implied total of 26.0 points, the Redskins are now 2.5-point home dogs with an implied total of 22.0 points and the line continues to move.
Jameis Winston will start Week 8
This was expected despite Winston heading into Sunday with a questionable tag. He’ll take on the Panthers pass defense which is allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points to QBs despite giving up the sixth-highest passer rating (100.4) and fifth-highest completion percentage (67%). There is some concern regarding the Panthers pass rush as Carolina is second in adjusted sack rate. The Buccaneers offensive line has one of the best in the business, ranking first in pass blocking efficiency (per PFF), but four of their six games have come against bottom-12 teams in adjusted sack rate. They faced two teams in the top eight, Minnesota and Chicago in Weeks 2 and 3. He tossed three interceptions against the former, although he also passed for 328 yards and two touchdowns. He was limited to 204 yards and one score against the latter and didn’t turn the ball over. He was sacked twice in both games but Tampa Bay’s line only allowed 18 total pressures, the tenth-fewest over those two weeks. His main man, Mike Evans, is expected to see Daryl Worley quite a bit – the corner has given up three touchdowns and a 65% catch rate this season.
Other tagged players: Mike Evans Marquise Goodwin expected to play Week 8; Eagles CB Ronald Darby ruled out
Darby isn’t ready to make his return yet, leaving the Eagles with Jalen Mills and Patrick Robinson as their primary corners. Rasul Douglas and Jaylen Watkins rotated in for nickel packages last week with Robinson moving to the slot, and safety Malcolm Jenkins often rolls up into slot coverage. Goodwin is expected to primarily see a mix of Robinson and Douglas. The former is PFF’s fourth-ranked cover corner but he’s 60th in yards per cover snap (1.39) while the latter is the 60th cover corner and 63rd in yards/snap (1.5). Goodwin is a boom-or-bust type option that’s seen as many as 11 targets this season but only exceed six twice. His teammate Pierre Garcon has seen double-digit looks on four occasions but he’s only passed the century mark once and hasn’t found the end zone. He’ll battle Jalen Mills the most, who’s allowed the most receptions (41), sixth-most yards (400), and fifth-most touchdowns (4) this season. There is some legitimate weather concerns in Philly today – it’s expected to be very wet and a little windy – and the game total has fallen from 48 to 45 points, leaving the 49ers with an implied total of 16.25 as 12.5-point road dogs.
Other tagged players: Pierre Garcon, Philadelphia Eagles