DFS Alerts
A Possible GPP Correlation Stack
I wrote up Brian Hoyer as a GPP target at quarterback, and I also like Pierre Garcon as a potential QB/WR combo play on the cheap this week. Garcon should get peppered with targets in a San Francisco option that lacks consistency at WR, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him post an 8/95/1 type of line here. That would be more than enough to pay off his reasonable salary tag on all sites.
Volume, Volume, Volume
This will be one of the most winnable games the Bills have all season, and LeSean McCoy is saying all the right things heading into this game. I expect the Bills to control the ball and the clock against an awful Jets squad, and McCoy could push for 30 touches here. With the herd flowing to Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson because of their massive upside, McCoy is the forgotten man here. His pass-catching ability and heavy workload give him quite the ceiling in his own right, and it would not shock me at all if he was the top scoring RB on the slate.
Bears OC: Kevin White has to be team's number one receiver
In the same breath Chicago’s offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains said he would try to replace injured Cameron Meredith with a committee at receiver, he spoke highly of White. It seems that he wants the third-year receiver to be the featured guy in the passing game, but he’ll resort to a group effort if White can’t separate himself from the pack, which will primarily include Kendall Wright and Deonte Thompson. For Week 1, it’s good news for White’s fantasy outlook as it appears he’ll get a shot to step up into the number one role and receive a healthy volume of looks. He averaged 8.75 targets in the four games he played last season. White has a nice size advantage over Wright – five inches and 30 pounds – giving him an edge in the red zone. Chicago may be built to be a run-heavy team with a strong line and running back but they’ll be playing from behind in most games this season. They’re seven-point dogs in Week 1 against the Falcons, which should force Glennon to throw more than the Bears would like. White is a risky GPP bet that should at least get a good amount of opportunities to produce; whether he can be effective with his chances with Mike Glennon at the helm remains to be seen.
As reported by: ESPN
Evan Engram expected to play 60% of Giants TE snaps Sunday
Rhett Ellison will likely start Sunday but he’ll primarily serve as a blocker on running downs. Beat writer Jordan Ranaan believes Engram will get a 60% share of the tight end snaps against the Cowboys and should have an active role in the passing game. Until he sees his workload increase, which could happen early on this season, he’s a risky GPP bet, although he would take an upgrade if Odell Beckham is sidelined in Week 1. Engram is slightly small for the position at 6’3” 235 but he’s lighting quick – he ran a 4.42 40 and 6.92 3-cone drill at the combine, good for first and second among tight ends, respectively. During the preseason, he hauled in six-of-nine targets for 75 yards, primarily with the first-team offense. Last year, Dallas struggled to defend tight ends, allowing the most receptions (119) and yards to the position (1,199). He’s a player to watch as he could end up becoming a nice fantasy target as the season progresses.
As reported by: ESPN Other tagged players: Rhett Ellison Myles Garrett (ankle) will miss at least two weeks
Garrett suffered a high ankle sprain in practice Wednesday. ESPN reports he’ll miss their first two matchups with the Steelers and Ravens. He’ll be re-evaluated following the second game; the rookie defensive end is expected to miss 4-6 weeks in total.
As reported by: ESPN Minnesota WRs Looking to Exploit Saints Secondary
Both Stefon Diggs and slot receiver Adam Thielen should have plus matchups against the Saints cornerbacks this week, with the most talented member of the New Orleans secondary — Marshon Lattimore — a rookie making his NFL debut. Diggs and Thielen were tied for fifth in the league in catch rate among wide receivers last season at 75%, and both are relatively affordable across sites this week. Thielen is a particular bargain at $4,800 on DraftKings — only $200 more expensive than Week 16 last year, when he destroyed Green Bay for 202 receiving yards on 12 receptions with two touchdowns. No defense gave up more passing yards than New Orleans last season, and the Vikings strong implied team total of 25.75 indicates they could be giving up yards in chunks in Minnesota this week.
This Monday Night Quarterback Could Go Overlooked
We have to wait until Monday night to see Bradford and the Vikings take on the Saints in Minnesota, but he could be worth the wait, and deserves a look if you’re playing a slate that includes the Monday night games. The Saints defense ranked 32nd – dead last – in passing yards allowed last season, and although rookie RB Dalvin Cook will certainly work into the mix, the Vikings have a trio of talented pass catchers in Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph. Minnesota has the 8th-highest implied team total this week. Of the seven QBs on teams with higher implied totals – Brady, Ryan, Roethlisberger, Newton, Rodgers, Mariota, and Prescott – all are more expensive than Bradford, making him one of the best point-per-dollar plays at quarterback this week.
Carlos Hyde projects as our top points-per-dollar RB on DraftKings in Week 1
49ers general manager John Lynch has made it clear Hyde will be the feature back this season, but he added that undrafted rookie Matt Breida is “very much a part” of their offensive plans. Head coach and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan loved using a pair of backs in Atlanta yet Devonta Freeman still finished in the top ten in rushing yards the past two seasons. In fact, Shanahan’s offense has produced a top-ten rusher in four of the past five seasons as he elevated Alfred Morris to second and third place finishes in 2012 and 2013. Hyde showed up to camp at a lean 228 pounds, which should improve his quickness and enable him to excel in Shanahan’s outside-zone scheme that’s worked so well in the past. In terms of individual motivation, Hyde is in a contract year and Breida is breathing down his neck. He starts off the season in a tough spot against a Panthers front seven Pro Football Focus ranked fourth heading into the season. The 49ers are 5.5-point home dogs, which could limit his volume in the running game but increase his usage as a receiver. Hyde showed his potential upside in the passing game over his final five games last year, catching a touchdown pass three times. Fortunately, he may not face too much competition in that facet of their offense as Breida only caught 22 balls in his three years at Georgia Southern whereas Hyde caught 27 balls in his 2016 campaign alone. Of course, DraftKings is a full PPR site, which further elevates his value. Despite the coaching staff’s faith in his backup, Hyde will have every chance to hold on to the feature role this season and he has a great shot to improve his production in Shanahan’s offense. Although he’ll likely lose some touches to Breida this week, his price is simply too low on DraftKings (he’s $6.8k on FanDuel). That makes him a great points-per-dollar option but it will also ensure he comes with high ownership.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projections C.J. Fiedorowicz (concussion) had a full practice Wednesday
Fiedorowicz showed up on the Texans injury report with a concussion Wednesday. The injury wasn’t reported previously but it appears he’s already made progress through the protocol since he’s cleared to fully participate in practice. The Houston Chronicle reports he’s fully expected to play on Sunday. Fiedorowicz seemed to have good chemistry with Brock Osweiler last season as he went on to obliterate his previous career-highs, finishing with 54 receptions for 559 yards and four scores on 89 targets. It’s yet to be seen how he’ll perform with Tom Savage at the helm. In the lone game they both started in 2016, Fiedorwicz led the squad in targets (7) and caught four passes for 42 scoreless yards. Will Fuller, who won’t play this weekend, tied for second with six targets in that game. Houston will start Braxton Miller in his place, which should help Fiedorowicz secure a larger workload as Miller hasn’t proven to be an effective wide receiver at the NFL level. Working against the tight end will be the slow pace and run-heavy offense the Texans are expected to employ this season, and Jacksonville’s solid pass defense. D’Onta Foreman (groin) joined Fiedorowicz as a full participant in practice Wednesday, indicating he’s on track to suit up as Lamar MIller’s backup on Sunday.
As reported by: Aaron Wilson Markus Wheaton (finger) didn't practice Wednesday
The Bears third receiver is expected to miss their first game. That leaves Kevin White, Kendall Wright, and Deonte Thompson as the primary options for Mike Glennon against the Falcons Sunday. Offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains said he would employ a “committee” at wide receiver to replace Cameron Meredith, which essentially means de facto number one Kevin White won’t necessarily pull away from Wright in the targets and production departments. Both are clearly better choices than Thompson, but in a Glennon-led offense, neither are particularly appealing. White has five inches and 30 pounds on Wright, giving him an edge in the red zone. Plus, in his limited action last season, the oft-injured third-year player picked up 8.75 targets per game. Chicago may be built to be a run-heavy team with a strong line and running back but they’ll be playing from behind in most games this season. They’re seven-point dogs in Week 1 against the Falcons, which should force Glennon to throw more than the Bears would like. White, a risky GPP play at best, appears to have the highest ceiling among the receivers and is the best bet to pull down a score.
As reported by: Brad Biggs Other tagged players: Kevin White, Kendall Wright Chester Rogers (hamstring) held out of practice Wednesday, unlikely to play Sunday
The Colts’ third receiver was expected to practice today but ended up being held out as he deals with a hamstring injury. While this will elevate Kamar Aiken on the depth chart, Scott Tolzien will primarily target T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief, and Jack Doyle. Over the past two seasons, Hilton averaged 16.69 PPR points across 22 games with Luck at QB (9.77 targets, 5.41 receptions, 88.27 yards, and 0.41 touchdowns). As one might expect, that number has dropped substantially in the ten games he’s played without him, to 11.6 PPR points (7.4 targets, 4.1 receptions, 63.0 yards, and 0.2 touchdowns). In Tolzien’s lone start last season, Hilton hauled in three of five targets for 54 scoreless yards. The backup QB favored Moncrief in that matchup with the Steelers, peppering him with 11 targets, which the receiver converted into a 6/45/1 line. Tolzien aimed for a tight end on ten occasions. Although just two went Doyle’s way, the other eight went to Dwyane Allen, who’s no longer with the team, and to Erik Swoope, who’s been placed on the IR. Tolzien was much more effective when throwing to that position as the trio combined for eight receptions, 109 yards, and a score on those ten opportunities. The game total dropped 2.5 points to 41.5 points since Luck was ruled out, providing the Colts an implied total of 19 points, the third-lowest this week.
As reported by: Stephen Holder Malcolm Mitchell (knee) questionable for Thursday
Mitchell will be buried on the depth chart if he’s able to play, which takes him off the DFS radar. Instead, quarterback Tom Brady will look for Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola ahead of Mitchell. Plus, they have a deep backfield with effective pass-catchers. There are certainly plenty of mouths to feed and Mitchell is far down the list. Kansas City has one of the best corners in the league in Marcus Peters but he doesn’t move from the left side. Opposite him will be Phillip Gaines, who was Pro Football Focus’ second-lowest graded cornerbacks among 109 qualifiers in 2016 (34.8). Hogan and Cooks should both get plenty of looks against Gaines and could benefit further if safety Ron Parker (ankle, doubtful) misses Thursday’s game as Parker was the ninth-best safety in coverage last season. It could open up more deep-ball opportunities, making them exciting tournament options in Week 1. New England currently has the highest implied total on the board (28.75 points).
As reported by: Mike Reiss Other tagged players: Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan Eric Ebron removed from injury report, Kenny Golladay (ankle) limited in practice Wednesday
Ebron has been battling a hamstring injury but he appears fully ready for Detroit’s first game. It’s also worth noting that T.J. Jones (hamstring) was removed from the injury report as well. He was running as the slot receiver in three-wide sets this preseason and is expected to be ahead of the rookie Golladay on the depth chart to start the season. Beat writer Dvae Birkett expects Golladay to jump Jones, but he also believes the Lions will use plenty of two-tight end sets and it’ll be tough for Golladay to make an impact. Although he’s looked great this summer, he’ll be competing with Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Ebron for looks. The tight end posted a paltry six red zone targets across 13 appearances in 2016 – and only scored once. With last season’s leader Anquan Boldin gone, he’s expected to see more opportunities in scoring position. Game flow will be in his favor as the Lions are two-point dogs at home in a matchup with a 48-point total, but the Cardinals were strong against tight ends last season, finished 6th in TE DVOA while permitting a league-low 25.6 yards per game to the position, according to Football Outsiders.
As reported by: Michael Rothstein Other tagged players: Kenny Golladay Thomas Rawls (ankle) questionable for Sunday, Eddie Lacy and C.J. Prosise both healthy and ready for Week 1
Head coach Pete Carroll added Lacy is capable of handling 20-25 touches on Sunday if Rawls, who’s dealing with a high ankle sprain, misses the game. Of course, that doesn’t mean he will considering Prosise figures to handle passing down duties and Seattle is high on rookie Chris Carson. Seattle’s backfield is one to avoid in the first week, even if Rawls is sidelined, as Lacy hasn’t looked great and he’ll still be splitting the work with two other backs. Unless one guy breaks away from the pack, it’ll be tough trust any individual in this group in fantasy. Prosise, who Carroll said is fully healthy, may be the most interesting option of the three in this matchup with the Packers and their weak passing defense. The Seahawks are road underdogs in a game with a 51-point over/under. Game flow could work in his favor, making him a potential high-risk GPP option in full PPR scoring.
As reported by: Gregg Bell Other tagged players: Eddie Lacy, C.J. Prosise, Chris Carson Target This Steady Veteran at WR
Fitzgerald only played 19 snaps in the preseason, so he should be fresh for one of the best matchups of the weekend. He ran 45.2% of his snaps from the slot last season, and in Week 1 he faces the worst slot corner in the NFL. Detroit’s Quandre Diggs allowed a 90.9% catch rate in 12 games last season, whereas Fitz averaged 9.4 targets per game and compiled 151 targets overall, the seventh most in the league. On top of that, he led the NFL in receptions, averaging 6.8 per game. In this Week 1 matchup, we could be looking a good number of fantasy points for Fitzgerald just from catches alone, and if he finds the end zone, we’re going to get a great return on a mid-tier wide receiver.
