The Braves will face an opener (Vince Velasquez) and then project to face Cole Irvin in long-relief Sunday. Irvin has a 5.48 ERA, 4.81 xFIP, 4.66 SIERA, 13.2 K-BB%, 47% hard contact rate, just a 30% GB rate and a 10.2% SwStr over 21 innings in 2019. Per Statcast, Irvin has a .347 xwOBA allowed and 7.6% barrel rate with an 85.4 aEV. The Braves have destroyed left-handed pitching on the year and have a lineup full of options this afternoon. Austin Riley (.579 xwOBA vs. LHP this year, 26 PA), Ronald Acuna Jr. (.441), Freddie Freeman (.406), Ozzie Albies (.401), Dansby Swanson (.397) and Josh Donaldson (.354) are all good options. Donaldson seems like the best value, batting 4th at just $4k on Draftkings with a history of success vs. LHP (158 career wRC+ vs. LHP). Albies has been the hottest Braves hitter over the last 2 weeks with a .451 xwOBA, followed by Freddie Freeman with a .449 xwOBA. The Braves have a healthy 5.92 implied total at home vs. the Phillies Sunday.
Margevicius is another pitcher (like Eric Lauer yesterday) that just isn’t cut out for Coors given the tiny 16.2% K rate and 9.6% SwStr. Overall, Margevicius has a 5.02 ERA, 4.91 xFIP, 5.03 SIERA, 9.2% K-BB and 37.8% hard contact. He’s also allowed a .346 xwOBA on the year with a 7.6% barrel rate and 87.1 MPH aEV. Charlie Blackmon (.366 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Nolan Arenado (.358), Ian Desmond (.418), David Dahl (.412), Trevor Story (.321), Ryan McMahon (.335), Chris Iannetta (.321) and Mark Reynolds (.279) are all the projected batters in the Rockies lineup this afternoon and they are all in play given the matchup in Coors. Iannetta has the highest xwOBA over the past 14 days with a .453 mark, followed by Charlie Blackmon (.449) and David Dahl (.377). The Rockies currently have a 7.14 implied total versus Margevicius and the Padres today.
On a slate with very few safe options at SP, you could make the argument that Sonny Gray is the safest option on the board today. Gray has quietly been a very solid pitcher so far in 2019 with a 3.65 ERA, 3.55 xFIP, 3.98 SIERA, 56.6% GB rate (!), 25.7% K rate and 9.4% BB rate. His Statcast stats are even more impressive as he has just a .276 xwOBA allowed with just a 4.5% barrel rate and 86.7 MPH aEV. The Rangers have been above average with a 105 wRC+ and 24.6% K rate vs. RHP this year, though they have just a 93 wRC+ vs. RHP since June 1st when Joey Gallo went down. Gray will also have the benefit of a pitcher friendly ump calling balls and strikes in Gabe Morales. Despite the success so far in 2019, Gray’s price has been slow to catch up and he is available for just $7.5k on Fanduel and $8.6k on Draftkings. The Rangers have a 3.82 implied total vs. Gray and the Reds Sunday.
It’s tough to stomach slotting Chris Archer into a lineup these days as he seemingly gets blown up every start. Archer does have a 5.73 ERA, but has a more respectable 4.81 xFIP, 4.84 SIERA, 23% K rate and 12.2% SwStr. SP is very thin on this slate and Archer likely won’t see as good of a matchup all year as this one, in pitcher-friendly Marlins Park facing a terrible Marlins offense. The Marlins have just a 29th ranked 76 wRC+ and 24.9% K rate vs. RHP on the year. They are also dead last in home runs vs. RHP by a large margin with just 36 homers across 1815 PA (2% HR rate), which is very fortunate for Archer given that he has let up ridiculous 2.41 HR/9 so far in 2019. Archer still strikes out a decent amount of batters, giving him upside at his price of $8.4k on Draftkings and $7.9k on Fanduel. As long as he can keep the ball in the yard he has a very good shot of hitting value, and is certainly an attractive GPP play given the lack of SP options on the slate. The Marlins have a 3.82 implied line versus Archer and the Pirates this afternoon.
Since returning from the IL on 5/29 James Paxton has made 3 starts, coming against the Padres, Blue Jays and Mets. Despite the decently easy matchups, Paxton has struggled to a 7.15 ERA / 5.96 xFIP / 5.40 SIERA with an ugly 13.5% BB rate, 39.4% hard contact rate and 54.5% FB rate. Paxton’s most recent start was his worst, giving up 6 earned runs over just 2 2/3 innings to the Mets at home. The White Sox have swung the bat well recently with a .329 xwOBA over the past 14 days as a team and are likely to be very low-owned today vs. Paxton and the Yanks. Jose Abreu (.379 xwOBA vs. LHP on the year), Yonder Alonso (.356), James McCann (.355), Eloy Jimenez (.336), Tim Anderson (.335), Leury Garcia (.311) and Yoan Moncada (.287) are all options in the projected lineup versus Paxton. Besides Moncada, all White Sox bats are priced $4.4k or less on Draftkings. Moncada has been by far their hottest hitter with a scorching .503 xwOBA over the past 14 days. The White Sox will also have the benefit of a very hitter friendly umpire in Nic Lentz.
Brian Johnson hasn’t shown a ton of success in the Majors: In 136 career innings as a starter and reliever, Johnson has a 4.69 ERA / 4.94 xFIP / 4.50 SIERA with a 10.8% K-BB, 1.58 HR/9, 43.5% FB rate and just a 7.6% SwStr. The Orioles haven’t been a great offense this year but have a decent amount of solid options vs. LHP and are very affordable. Pedro Severino (.432 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Trey Mancini (.418), Renato Nunez, (.352), Hanser Alberto (.282) and Keon Broxton (.278) are all intriguing options today in the Baltimore lineup. Alberto will leadoff and costs just $3.4k on Draftkings. Severino is batting 3rd at just $4k and will likely be a very popular play given that he has mashed LHP this year. Renato Nunez is also a good value batting 4th at just $4k. Anthony Santander is another option at just $3.9k, he has a 172 wRC+ this year although in just 34 PA. Severino and Mancini have been the Orioles’ hottest hitters; each have an xwOBA over .400 the last 14 days. The Orioles currently have a 4.71 implied line versus Johnson and the Red Sox.
There are a few types of pitchers that can survive Coors field, but Eric Lauer certainly isn’t one of them. Though Lauer does have a respectable GB rate at 43.5%, it won’t be enough to overcome the fact that he has just a 19% K rate and putrid 6.5% SwStr along with a 41.5% hard contact on the year. David Dahl (.418 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Ian Desmond (.403), Nolan Arenado (.365), Charlie Blackmon (.360), Chris Iannetta (.321), Trevor Story (.307) and Brendan Rodgers (.202) are all good options in the Rockies’ projected order. Rodgers has had a slow start but had a 158 wRC+ in AAA this year and is a bargain on Draftkings at just $3.7k. Desmond is also very affordable at just $4.3k. Charlie Blackmon has been the Rockies hottest hitter over the past 14 days with a .466 xwOBA, followed by Chris Iannetta with a .426 mark. The Rockies have a healthy 6.21 implied line heading into their matchup with the Padres tonight.
The A’s will face an opener (Gerson Bautista) and then project to face Wade Leblanc as a long reliever tonight. Leblanc has a 5.31 ERA / 5.07 xFIP / 4.69 SIERA with a 41.5% FB rate and 8.5% SwStr. He also had allowed a .380 xWOBA on the year with a 91 MPH aEV and 9.2% barrel rate. Khris Davis (.388 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Olson (.379), Chad Pinder (.369), Ramon Laureano (.357), Matt Chapman (.356) and Jurickson Profar (.343) are all great options tonight. With the exception of Matt Olson ($4.8k) all A’s bats are available for $4.4k or less on Draftkings. Marcus Semien (.282) and Mark Canha (.300) are projected to bat 1-2 and are also decent options. Matt Olson has been the A’s hottest bat with a .387 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Khris Davis at .344. Also working in A’s hitters’ favor tonight will be a hitter-friendly umpire in Carlos Torres. The A’s have a solid 5.44 implied line vs. the Mariners tonight.
Aaron Nola had a rough start to the season by his standards, but has picked it up over the past month; he’s currently sporting a 3.12 xFIP, 3.87 SIERA, 18.3% K-BB, 50.6% GB rate and .312 xwOBA over the past 30 days. Nola certainly does not have the best matchup tonight on the road versus the Braves, but he is at least intriguing given his depressed price across the industry, as he’s available under $9k on both Draftkings and Fanduel tonight. The Braves have a 105 wRC+ and a 21.8% K rate on the year vs. right-handed pitching. Nola will hold the platoon advantage against five out of nine Braves hitters tonight; Nola has been much better vs. RHB in his career with a .274 wOBA allowed and 27.5% K rate versus RHB compared to a .306 wOBA allowed and 23.6% K rate vs. LHB. The Braves have a 4.4 implied line vs. Nola and the Phils tonight.
Noah Syndergaard has had an up and down year that so far has resulted in a 4.45 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 3.96 SIERA, 24% K rate and 6% BB rate, a 12% SwStr, just a 29.6% hard contact rate and a solid 47.6% GB rate. Syndergaard’s Statcast numbers are even more impressive as he has just a .271 xwOBA allowed with a 4% barrel/BBE and 86.2 MPH aEV. Syndergaard will face the Cardinals, who have a slightly below average 95 wRC+ and 22.5% K rate vs. right-handed pitching on the year. The Cardinals have been extremely cold of late, as they have a 29th ranked .279 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Syndergaard will also have the benefit of a pitcher-friendly ump calling balls and strikes with Brian O’Nora behind the plate. Syndergaard is reasonably priced as he’s under $9.5k on both major sites on the night slate. The Cardinals have a 4.22 implied line versus him and the Mets tonight.
Arguably the best SP play on the board for the afternoon slate is Chris Sale, who gets a nice matchup versus the Orioles in Baltimore today. Sale’s early season struggles are firmly in the rearview as he has returned to his dominant self; over the past 30 days Sale has a 2.98 xFIP, 2.93 SIERA, 36.2% K rate, 6.9% BB rate and .220 xwOBA allowed (!). The Orioles will come into this game with just an 89 wRC+ and 25.7% K rate vs. left-handed pitchers on the year. They’ve also been one of the coldest offenses over the past 14 days with a 27th ranked .287 xwOBA. The O’s project to have just 3 batters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater .310 vs. LHP on the year. The Orioles have just a 2.86 implied total vs. Sale and the Red Sox, and Sale will have a good shot at a ‘W’ given the Red Sox are currently -320 favorites.
After missing all of 2018 due to injury, Jimmy Nelson made his debut earlier this month on 6/5, giving up 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work. He walked a batter per inning, averaged just 92.5 MPH on his fastball (down from 94.5 MPH in 2017) and certainly looked like a pitcher that is trying to shake off rust after a long absence. Though Oracle Park is certainly not hitter-friendly, Giants bats are very affordable across the industry and are an option for those that are paying up for Sale and/or Strasburg on the afternoon slate. Brandon Belt (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Buster Posey (.367), Evan Longoria (.326), Joe Panik (.315) and Brandon Crawford (.311) are all solid options in the Giants’ projected order. Pablo Sandoval (.379) is also a great option if he can crack the starting lineup. Belt has been the Giants’ hottest hitter with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Sandoval with a .393 mark. Mike Yastrzemski projects to bat 2nd, but has just a .242 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year. All Giants’ bats are available for $3.8k or less on Draftkings with the exception of Belt, who is $4.2k.
Marco Gonzales had a solid start to the year, but has largely struggled since. He owns a 6.01 xFIP, 5.56 SIERA and 8.20 ERA over the past 30 days with a 6.6% K-BB and 44% hard contact rate. He also has a .383 xwOBA allowed and 90.2 aEV over that time frame. Gonzales has actually been worse vs. LHB this year (.348 xwOBA allowed vs. LHB, .321 allowed vs. RHB) but can be targeted from both sides of the plate tonight. Khris Davis (.389 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Matt Olson (.383), Chad Pinder (.371), Ramon Laureano (.360), Josh Phegley (.352), Matt Chapman (.347), and Jurickson Profar (.340) are all great options in the A’s lineup tonight. Marcus Semien (.290) is also in play batting leadoff. Matt Olson has been the A’s hottest hitter with a .396 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Chapman, Pinder, Davis, Profar and Phegley can all be had for $4.2k or less on Draftkings. The A’s have a solid 5.50 implied total tonight vs. Marco Gonzales and the Mariners.
Fried has been solid this year with a 3.75 ERA, 3.50 xFIP and 3.91 SIERA to go with a 15.5% K-BB and a 54.3% GB rate with a 22.4% FB rate. Statcast likes Fried as he has just a .303 xwOBA allowed and a 3.2% barrels/BBE that is among the best of starting pitchers this year. Fried gets a matchup at home versus the Phillies, who have been exactly average vs. LHP this year with a 100 wRC+ and 20.6% K rate. The Phillies have been cold as of late with just a 24th ranked .310 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Also working in Fried’s favor is a pitcher-friendly ump calling balls and strikes with Jeremie Rehak beind the plate tonight. Fried is just $6.9k on Draftkings and $7.3k on Fanduel, making him a solid pts/$ play, especially on Draftkings as an SP2. The Phillies currently have a 4.27 implied line vs. Fried and the Braves Friday night.
The Marlins lineup is hardly ever a place to find bats, but on a slate tonight with many viable high priced-arms, they have some decent low-priced options that make sense. The Marlins will get a matchup tonight with Steven Brault, who has had a rough year with a 5.05 ERA, 5.63 xFIP and 5.44 SIERA with just a 5.4% K-BB, 44% hard contact and an 8.8% SwStr. Brault also has a .362 xwOBA allowed and an 89.8 MPH aEV. The Pirates’ bullpen has also been atrocious over the last 30 days with a 6.27 ERA and 5.21 xFIP with a 2.04 HR/9, further enhancing the matchup for Miami bats. Garrett Cooper (.427 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Jorge Alfaro (.425), Starlin Castro (.354), Brian Anderson (.336) have all hit lefties well this year and are in the Miami lineup tonight. Austin Dean (.268) hasn’t had as much success on the year but will leadoff for the Marlins at just $3.4k on Draftkings. Harold Ramirez is another option, batting 5th at $3.8k with a 106 wRC+ on the year. Garrett Cooper has been the Marlins’ hottest hitter with a .439 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Miguel Rojas at a .398 mark. With the exception of Cooper, all Marlins bats are $4k or less on Draftkings. They currently have a 4.37 implied line vs. Brault and the Pirates.
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