10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for 5-12-2016
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, May 12, 2016.
1. Clayton Kershaw faces the Mets on Thursday, and nobody needs a dissertation explaining why he’s the top pitching play of the day – he’s Kershaw. But since we’re here…Clayton Kershaw has struck out 64 batters this year while walking three, for a K/BB ratio of 21.33. Not only is that the best ratio in baseball – it’s nearly three times what any other pitcher in MLB has posted this season. Another pitcher on Thursday’s slate, Mets pitcher/slugger Bartolo Colon has the second-best K/BB ratio at a mere 8.25.
2. One more Kershaw note: in nine career starts against the Mets, he’s 6-0 with a 1.34 ERA. The last time he allowed more than two earned runs in a start against the Mets was way back on May 30, 2008 (and that’s the only time he’s allowed more than two earned in this matchup). In that game, he also allowed the only home run he’s ever allowed to the Mets, a two-run shot by (get ready) Luis Castillo.
3. Manny Machado is absolutely raking at Camden Yards in 2016. His league-leading 268 wRC+ at home this season is 56 points higher than second-place David Ortiz. The 56-point gap between Machado and Ortiz is the same distance between Ortiz and the two players tied for 19th on that list, Jackie Bradley, Jr. and Kevin Pillar (164). Against Tigers’ groundball pitcher Mike Pelfrey, Machado, who’s posted a .318/.383/.525 line against groundballers since 2014, is an elite play. Other Orioles to target include Chris Davis (.292 ISO vs. groundball pitchers since 2014), Mark Trumbo (.223 ISO vs. groundballers since 2014), and even Nolan Reimold if he cracks the lineup (.317 ISO, albeit in 43 PAs, against groundballers since 2014).
4. There is a 3.80-run differential between David Price ERA and FIP (6.75 ERA, 2.95 FIP), which is by far the largest differential of any pitcher in baseball. His SIERA is solid, as well, at 3.02. His SwStr% of 14.1 would be the best mark of his career if the season ended today. His .373 BABIP (third-highest in MLB) and 54.2% (lowest in MLB) have to level out at some point. Basically any advanced metric suggests that positive regression is imminent for Price. But despite all of that, there’s one other metric that makes me leery of using Price against Houston on Thursday – it’s his 41.2% hard contact rate, which is second-worst in MLB (only Chris Archer 41.4 Hard% is worse).
5. Adam Wainwright is the only pitcher in MLB to have allowed 3+ earned runs in seven starts this season. It’s the longest streak of such games in Wainwright’s career, which dates back to 2006.
6. Vincent Velasquez faces a Braves team whose lack of any semblance of power has been well-documented. Everybody knows the Braves don’t hit home runs (after Freddie Freeman homer last night, they’ve hit nine this year as a team, fewer than 10 individual players in MLB). But the Braves are deficient in more than just the home run department – they’re also the only team in baseball without any triples this season.
7. After homering off Williams Perez last night, Ryan Howard now has 51 home runs against the Braves, more than any other active player, and it’s not close – with 36 career homers against Atlanta, David Wright ranks second. Howard’s .294 ISO against the Braves ranks third among active players (minimum 40 games started), behind only Albert Pujols (.302) and David Ortiz (.299).
8. Nick Castellanos has been good this year – that much is hard to argue. He ranks fifth in MLB with a 189 wRC+, and his .439 wOBA ranks seventh. He has improved his Hard% (33.6% for his career, 38.8% this year), and he’s making soft contact less often (11.4% career, 7.1% in 2016). But if you are looking for reasons to not trust Castellanos’ recent success, you don’t have to look far. His .449 BABIP is the highest in MLB, and for a player with a career 9.2 HR/FB%, the 17.5% rate he’s currently holding is sure to come down.
9. Matt Wieters has three extra-base hits in 2016, one fewer than Adam Wainwright.
10. Apart from the non-Wieters Baltimore hitters, perhaps the most stackable team on Thursday’s slate is the Cardinals. As a team, they’ve hit a league-leading 39 home runs against righty pitching. Brandon Moss leads the team with seven homers against RHP, and against an extreme fly ball pitcher in Jered Weaver, Moss is as good a bet to go yard as anyone on Thursday’s slate.