10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for August 7th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, August 7th.
1. Dating back to 2012, Yu Darvish has a career strikeout rate of 33.1% against right-handed hitters. He would have to strike out 568 consecutive righties without notching a single strikeout to bring his K% down to this year’s league average 21.6 K% against righties. In other words, if we can get him against a righty-heavy team with a propensity for whiffing, he’s got elite strikeout upside. Enter the Houston Astros, whose 24.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year is third-worst in MLB. There are two dangers lurking, of course, those being the Astros’ power and the potential pitch count. Both are probably overstated – the Astros .168 ISO against RHP ranks near the middle of MLB (12th), and Darvish’s pitch count has been gradually increasing since he’s returned from the DL, culminating in a season-high 94 pitches in his last start.
2. In 30 starts last season, Carlos Carrasco was held below six strikeouts on eight occasions. In 16 starts in 2016, he’s been limited to fewer than a half dozen strikeouts on nine occasions. If the strikeouts aren’t there (and they might not be, as the Yankees own a 19.2% K rate against righties), Carrasco should be nowhere near cash games.
3. Gerrit Cole has pitched 555.2 innings over his first four seasons, and his .52 HR/9 is historically good. In fact, since 1980, he’s one of three pitchers with a HR/9 at or below 0.52 and an ERA at or below 3.01 – the others are Fernando Valenzuela (.48 HR/9, 3.00 ERA), Dwight Gooden (.47, 2.46), and Orel Hershiser (.42, 2.85). The only thing keeping Cole from being considered a top-tier option every start is the limited strikeout upside, which should be aided in this matchup by the Reds’ 21.6% K rate, which ranks in the bottom third of MLB.
4. Since the start of 2015, only Clayton Kershaw has more games of 5+ innings, one or fewer runs, and one or fewer walks than Jacob deGrom’s 18 such games. He’s been ultra-reliable throughout his career, but against the Tigers, he’s probably relegated to GPP-only territory on Sunday.
5. Marcus Stroman has walked one or fewer batters and struck out five or more in six consecutive starts. Only Clayton Kershaw (11 straight starts from April 5th-May 29th) has a longer streak of such games this year. Stroman might have turned a corner, holding a 2.35 SIERA since the All-Star break that leads all of MLB. I’ve written here about the Royals struggles against ground ball pitchers (but if you’ve missed it, here’s the gist of it: they’re completely punchless), and despite Aaron Sanchez giving up a few late runs yesterday, Stroman’s floor is relatively high in this matchup.
6. Oh, and one more point in Stroman’s favor – since the All-Star break, the Royals have a 61 wRC+ (worst in MLB), which means that they’ve been 39 percent worse than a league average team during that span. It’s safe to say the Royals have made the full transition from offense to avoid with pitchers to offense to exploit with pitchers.
7. There are lots of reasons to pay up for Mike Trout on Sunday, and I’ll list them in order of importance. 1.) He’s Mike Trout, 2.) He’s hot, having homered in two straight games and holding a 312 wRC+ over the past week (third-best in MLB), 3.) He’s Mike Trout, and 4.) It’s Mike Trout birthday, and Mike Trout hits home runs on his birthday. In fact, he’s homered in three of his past four birthday games, and his three career birthday dongs is second only to Alex Rodriguez (who’s hit five) among active players.
8. Before stacking Cubs against lefty Sean Manaea, consider: while Manaea struggled out of the gate with a 6.02 ERA in his first nine career starts, he’s been much better over the past seven starts, posting a 3.14 ERA that is roughly on par with Chris Sale season-long mark (3.12). Over the past 30 days, Manaea’s 12.9% swinging strike rate ranks 10th in MLB, indicating he’s keeping hitters off balance a bit more, as well. His recent improvement, coupled with the negative ballpark shift to O.co Coliseum, signals that this is a pretty mediocre matchup for Cubs batters.
9. Pedro Alvarez has five home runs in the last three games he’s started…the same number of home runs teammate Chris Davis has since June 26th.
10. Starling Marte has a .905 OPS against fly ball pitchers since 2015. That mark ranks 14th among all MLB players (min. 300 PAs) and seventh among outfielders behind only Mike Trout (1.115), Bryce Harper (1.085), Ryan Braun (.968), Carlos Gonzalez (.967), Yoenis Cespedes (.948), and Christian Yelich (.917). For comparison, Marte’s .778 OPS against ground ball pitchers ranks 48th. Against Dan Straily (48.7% fly ball rate against RHB), he’s in a good spot to do damage. It also doesn’t hurt that Tucker Barnhart has allowed 56 stolen bases this year (more than any other catcher in MLB) and that Marte has a 50.0% hard hit rate since the All-Star break, second-best in MLB among qualified hitters.