10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 16th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, June 16, 2016.
1. Six pitchers in MLB have SIERAs below 3.70, strikeout rates above 26.0%, and hard-contact rates below 28.0%. Four of them (Jake Arrieta, Noah Syndergaard, Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg) are in contention for Cy Young awards. That group is joined by two pitchers on today’s slate: Aaron Nola and Justin Verlander. Ordinarily, on a pitching slate this week, Nola and Verlander would be near must-plays. But given their matchups – Nola is at home against the Blue Jays, who own MLB’s highest wOBA (.359) and wRC+ (156) over the past week, and Verlander faces a Royals team with a reputation for severely limiting opposing pitchers’ strikeout upside – it’s tough to pull the trigger on either pitcher. However, if you do want to spend up…
2. Verlander is the play. Over the past 14 days, the Royals have struck out at the fourth-highest rate in MLB (24.4%) and have walked at the lowest rate in MLB (5.6%).
3. Like Verlander and Nola, Kansas City’s Danny Duffy finds himself in a precarious matchup on Thursday, facing a Tigers team that will be almost entirely right-handed. But Duffy might possess more strikeout upside than any pitcher on Thursday’s slate. In his last start, Duffy tossed a gem against the White Sox, allowing just three hits and fanning 10 over six innings of work. But here’s the most impressive part: it took him just 88 pitches to do it. It was just the 14th time in Royals history that a pitcher reached that line, and no Royals pitcher had ever reached it in fewer than 88 pitches. On the season, Duffy has a 17.3% swinging-strike rate, which is the best in MLB. I know what you’re thinking: of course his swinging-strike rate is inflated – he was a reliever for the early part of the year, when he was used in much more favorable situations! Not so fast – Duffy’s SwStr% has dipped only slightly since he entered the Royals’ rotation. As a starter, his 16.7 SwStr% is still better than anyone else’s in MLB (even Kershaw, who ranks second at 16.1%). It’s risky to use Duffy against Detroit, but unlike most pitchers on Thursday’s slate, his upside is elite.
4. Colby Lewis has 11 quality starts in 2016, the same number as Noah Syndergaard, one fewer than Johnny Cueto and Madison Bumgarner, and two shy of Clayton Kershaw league-leading 12. Am I suggesting you roster Colby Lewis? No. Never. But now might be the time to jump off of the Athletics bats, who have been hot lately, partially as a result of facing weak left-handed starters in four straight games (John Lamb, Cesar Ramos, Martin Perez, Derek Holland).
5. Another team that finds itself in a deceptively poor matchup is the Yankees, who take on a righty with extreme ground ball tendencies in in Minnesota’s Kyle Gibson (slate-high 60.6% ground ball rate). Against right-handed pitchers, the Yankees hit everything weakly, and they hit everything into the ground – their 49.3% ground ball rate against righties is highest in MLB, and their 25.1% hard-contact rate ranks dead last, as well (right below the Phillies and Braves – yikes). And according to Baseball Reference, against ground ball pitchers the team ranks 27th in batting average (.222), 26th in ISO (.111), and 28th in OPS (.638). A few Yankees in particular who have struggled against ground ball pitchers are Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury. In 2016, the two of them have a combined ISO of .124 against ground ball pitchers, with only eight extra-base hits between them (including just one home run) in 238 plate appearances.
6. Thursday is shaping up to be a day to target Baltimore bats. The Orioles have nine games of 4+ homers this season, putting them on pace for 23 such games this year. The all-time record of four-homer games by a team in a single season is held by two teams: the Mariners in 1999 and the Rangers in 2001. Against Eduardo Rodriguez, who’s given up five home runs in just 16.1 innings pitched in 2016, the balls could be flying out of Fenway Park on Thursday.
7. Reds pitcher have allowed 47 home runs to lefties this season, or 1.61 per nine innings, more than any other team. I’ve noted this here before, but the Reds still have just one lefty in their bullpen, closer Tony Cingrani, and Cingrani threw 21 pitches on Wednesday. This means Freddie Freeman should have the platoon advantage all night. He homered last night, and he’s one of the top plays at first base on Thursday.
8. Eric Hosmer has the fourth-highest batting average (.321) and the fifth-highest OPS (.946) against fly ball pitchers since 2015 (minimum 300 PAs). Given that he’s taking on a fly ball pitcher in Justin Verlander (45.5% fly ball rate in 2016), who, because of the lack of quality pitching on Thursday, should be somewhat highly owned in tournaments, Hosmer could make for a nice one-off, as could…
9. Salvador Perez, who is 21-for-44 in his career versus Verlander. His .477 average is 75 points higher than the player with the second-highest batting average against Verlander, Billy Butler (.402 average).
10. In the month of June, Andrew McCutchen has a .140 batting average (just seven hits in 50 at-bats, and only one extra-base hit, a double), an OPS of .340, an ISO of .020, a wOBA of .172, and, most alarmingly, a wRC+ of 3. McCutchen hasn’t quite reached Giancarlo Stanton-level futility as a hitter just yet, it’s tough to roster him given his current struggles, even as his price plummets across the industry.