10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 18th
Looking for more invaluable content to help you build better lineups? Try out RotoGrinders Premium!
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Sunday, June 18th.
1. Robbie Ray has struck out nine or more batters, allowed four or fewer hits, and allowed one or fewer earned runs in each of his past four starts. Only three other players in MLB history have had four such games in a row: Pedro Martinez, Nolan Ryan, and Randy Johnson. Robbie Ray is emerging as one of the elite pitchers in the game, and on Sunday, he’s on the road against the Phillies. “On the road” is the operative phrase for Ray, as he’s always struggled at Chase Field; this year, Ray has allowed 21 earned runs at his home venue compared to just three on the road in roughly the same number of innings (40 at home, 42 1/3 away). The Phillies rank 25th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching and 27th in hard contact rate. Ray is clearly the top raw points play at pitcher on Sunday.
2. Four times in 2017, a pitcher has struck out at least 10 Nationals; Jacob deGrom is responsible for two of them. deGrom has historically fared well against Washington, never allowing more than three earned runs in nine career starts against them. From a pure matchup perspective, though, it couldn’t get much worse; the Nationals rank in the top four in MLB in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+ against right-handed pitching and striking out at just a 19.2% clip, which is the fourth-lowest rate in MLB. deGrom is an acceptable pivot from Robbie Ray in tournaments, but the risk might be too great for cash games.
3. Time for a game of blind resume. In the table below, we’ve got some DFS-relevant stats for two pitchers against right-handed hitters since 2015.
| Stat | Player A | Player B |
|---|---|---|
| K% | 27.1% | 27.4% |
| BB% | 6.1% | 6.2% |
| wOBA | .253 | .253 |
| HR/9 | 0.45 | 0.39 |
| Hard% | 24.9% | 25.7% |
| xFIP | 3.08 | 3.00 |
The numbers are remarkably similar (identical in some cases), and both pitchers are clearly elite against righties: good strikeouts, low wOBA, almost no home runs allowed, low hard contact. Player A is Carlos Martinez, generally considered one of the best pitchers in MLB against right-handed pitching. Player B is Martinez’s teammate, Lance Lynn, who’s been equally as dominant (albeit in a smaller sample). Lynn will face an almost entirely right-handed lineup against Baltimore on Sunday. Baltimore hung a 15-spot on the Cardinals on Saturday, and Vegas expects Baltimore to score some runs on Sunday. However, Lynn’s success against righties makes him an excellent tournament play.
4. Jimmy Nelson has a 29.2% K rate against lefties this year, which is fourth-best in Major League Baseball among qualified pitchers; his previous career high against them was 18.3% in 2015. Nelson has clearly figured out how to get lefties out, and it’s led to some big performances. He has five games this year of 6+ innings, 8+ strikeouts, and one or fewer earned runs this year; prior to this season, he had three such games in his entire career. The real selling point for Nelson on Sunday is his matchup with the Padres, who have a 25.6% strikeout rate against righties and rank 27th with an 84 wRC+. If you’re rostering Robbie Ray, you’ll have to venture down into the mid-range for an SP2 at two-pitcher sites. Nelson may be the solution.
5. Bronson Arroyo has struck out 16 left-handed batters this season; he’s also allowed 13 home runs to lefties this year. His 56.0% fly ball rate is (surprise) not working out so well in Great American Small Park, and on Sunday, he has one of the worst matchups imaginable against a Dodgers team loaded with lefty power. Cody Bellinger is one of the top plays of the day, as he’s absolutely crushed fly ball pitchers early in his MLB career. In 65 plate appearances against fly ball pitchers, he’s slashing .361/.400/.918 (compared to .179/.298/.436 against ground ball pitchers), and his .557 ISO against them is third-best in MLB, trailing only Eric Thames and Bryce Harper.
6. If you’re building Dodgers stacks (and you probably should be), don’t leave out Justin Turner, even though he won’t have the platoon advantage against Arroyo. In the past calendar year, there are only two players who rank higher than Turner in wRC+ against right-handed pitching: Mike Trout and Freddie Freeman.
7. Eric Thames homered again yesterday, which makes home runs in four consecutive games. It’s not even his longest home run streak of the year, as he’ll need one on Sunday to tie the five-game homer streak from April. If does homer on Sunday, he’ll become the sixth player in MLB history with two separate five-game homer streaks in a season, joining Nelson Cruz (2015), Chase Utley (2008), Barry Bonds (2001), Frank Thomas (1994), and Harmon Killebrew (1970). It won’t be easy, as Luis Perdomo is an elite ground ball pitcher. While Perdomo is far better against righties than lefties (68.5% career GB rate vs. RHB, 52.4% vs. LHB), Thames has done most of his damage against fly ball pitchers. His OPS against ground ball pitchers is .792 – not bad, until you consider that his OPS against fly ball pitchers is 1.427.
8. In the month of June, no hitter has a bigger gap between his xwOBA (expected wOBA, based on exit velocity and launch angle) and his actual wOBA; there’s a massive .103 gap between the two (.377 xwOBA, .274 wOBA). Against Tyler Chatwood (.379 wOBA against lefties at home this year), Belt should be in for some positive regression on Sunday.
9. Francisco Lindor has a .208 BABIP this month, which is the lowest of any month in his career; he also has a 7.1% strikeout rate, which is also the lowest of any month in his career. Essentially, he’s making more contact than ever and getting extremely unlucky (though it has to be noted that his hard contact rate has dipped this month, as well). He homered last night, and against Kyle Gibson (who, like Bronson Arroyo, has more extra-base hits allowed than strikeouts to lefties), Lindor is an excellent way to fill the shortstop position if you can find the salary.
10. This year, Miguel Cabrera has an xwOBA of .413 against right-handed pitchers. If that was his actual wOBA, it would rank 16th of 147 hitters (min. 150 AB). Instead, his actual wOBA of .354 ranks 65th. Cabrera is still sub-$4.0k on DraftKings, and at just a few hundred dollars more expensive than guys like Jesus Aguilar and Jose Martinez at DraftKings, he remains an incredible bargain. Tampa Bay’s Jacob Faria is a talented young arm, but if you’re planning on paying up at pitcher, it’ll be tough to pass up Cabrera at this price tag.
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!