10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 24th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, June 24th.
1. In his last four starts since returning from the disabled list, Corey Kluber has posted a 19.5% swinging strike rate…nearly double the league average swinging strike rate this year of 10.4%. His 19.5% rate represents the highest of any four-game stretch of his career (see graph below).
Just to illustrate how rare his swing-and-miss stuff has been as of late, consider this: in their respective careers, Max Scherzer (whose highest SwStr% over a four-game stretch was 18.6%), Noah Syndergaard (18.1%), and Clayton Kershaw (19.4%) have never had a swinging strike rate over four games as high as Kluber’s has been over this stretch. If you’re playing the early slate, he’s the clear top option in a division matchup against the Twins, who are mediocre against right-handed pitching (22.0% strikeout rate ranks 15th, .325 wOBA ranks 13th, 99 wRC+ ranks 12th).
2. Jacob Faria has begun his MLB career with three straight starts of six or more innings, one or fewer earned runs, and five or more strikeouts, earning the win in all three. The only player to do that in his first three career starts? Fernando Valenzuela, in 1981 (and if you don’t know who that is, do yourself a favor and watch the 30 for 30 documentary Fernando Nation on Netflix). Faria’s price has risen to the point that he’s no longer a bargain at two-pitcher sites. Still, he makes some sense as an SP2 given the other lack of options on the early slate, though it must be noted that a matchup with Baltimore will be no picnic. One point in Faria’s favor: in a very small sample, he’s absolutely dominated righties, striking them out at a 31.4% clip and holding them to a .192 wOBA (though his 43.8% hard hit rate says those numbers aren’t exactly trustworthy).
3. Marco Estrada has allowed four earned runs in four consecutive starts; that’s tied for the longest streak of his career. During this stretch, he’s allowed 23 earned runs (or five fewer than Kershaw allowed in 21 starts last year), and opponents have posted a 1.202 OPS against him (or just a bit lower than the 1.222 OPS Mark McGwire posted in his 70-homer season in 1998). That’s a fancy way of saying that Estrada has been really, really bad. If there’s a matchup for him to get right, though, it’s this one: the Royals rank 28th in wOBA, 21st in ISO, and 28th in wRC+ against righties, and spacious Kauffman Stadium should benefit Estrada, whose bread and butter for years has been allowing weak fly balls (this year, his 44.4% fly ball rate is seventh-highest in MLB). Estrada’s recent struggles make him likely too risky for cash, but if the recent performance lowers his ownership as expected, he’s squarely in play for tournaments.
4. Thanks to a high 19.1% HR/FB rate, Clayton Kershaw has already allowed a career-high 17 home runs, which, over his 103 1/3 innings, comes out to 1.48 home runs per nine innings. His ERA isn’t suffering much, as his 2.61 mark is still fifth-best among qualified starters in MLB. How rare is it for a pitcher bitten by the homer bug to suppress runs at this rate? Kershaw is the only qualified pitcher ever to post a 2.61 or lower ERA despite allowing 1.48 HR/9. I’m willing to bet that the home runs level out (like, immediately), but the result of his recent “struggles” is a somewhat depressed price tag, particularly at DraftKings and FantasyDraft, where he’s just barely more expensive than Robbie Ray. Don’t be swayed by some bad home run variance; Kershaw is, and always was, an elite cash game play.
5. Jacob deGrom’s strikeout rate in his first seven starts of the year: 33.3%. His strikeout rate in his last seven starts: 23.4%. A 23.4% strikeout rate is by no means bad. But it does indicate that the early-season spike in strikeouts might have been more of a sample size thing than an increase in skills. Despite reaching double-figures in strikeouts when he faced the Giants earlier this year, this is a team with the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB against right-handed pitching (19.2%), so deGrom’s strikeout projection is not super high today. Pitching on Saturday’s main slate is loaded, and with other aces like Kershaw, Ray, Cueto, McCullers, and Price either being cheaper or having higher upside, deGrom is surprisingly unappealing today.
6. Lance McCullers may be putting the “he’s much better at home” narrative to bed. In his entire career, he has only gone 6+ innings and allowed one or fewer earned run on five occasions; four of those games have come in his last five road games (and in the fifth road game, he was cruising with eight strikeouts and zero earned through four innings before having one bad inning and being pulled in the fifth). The Mariners’ 105 wRC+ against righties (seventh-best in MLB) says this is no gimme matchup for McCullers, and there is the issue of his being fresh of the disabled list, but he avoided a rehab assignment and will be thrown straight into the rotation, which indicates the Astros have no concerns. If he hits anything close to his ceiling, he’s a bargain at his current price across the industry.
7. Cody Bellinger has an .829 slugging percentage in the month of June. To find another first-year player to record an .800+ slugging percentage in any single month (min. 85 PA), you have to go all the way back to September of 1939, when Ted Williams posted an .809 slugging percentage for the Red Sox. Bellinger has destroyed right-handed pitching all season long, and while his matchup with Tyler Chatwood (56.2% ground ball rate, 28.8% hard hits to LHB this year) isn’t ideal, Saturday’s late slate is really difficult for hitting, making Dodgers lefties a bit more appealing. The only problem, of course, is that if you’re rostering Kershaw or any of the other high-end options, it’ll be tough to pay up for Bellinger.
8. Here are the only players who have a higher OPS than the 1.122 that Matt Adams has this month: Judge (1.190), Rizzo (1.203), Bellinger (1.205), and McCutchen (1.217). Only Cody Bellinger (11) has more home runs than Adams’s 10 in the month of June, and on Saturday, Adams finds himself in a positive matchup at home against Matt Garza, who has only struck out 11.2% of the lefties he’s faced this year. The days of getting Adams at a bargain are over, but even so, he’s been dominant since joining the Braves, and he’s worth a look at first base.
9. David Peralta has five games of 3+ hits this month, joining Nolan Arenado and Jose Ramirez as the only players with five such games. At $4,900, he’s expensive at DraftKings, especially for ground ball hitter. However, he’s much more affordable at FanDuel at $3,500, and pairing him with Jake Lamb (also affordable at $3,800) makes for a great mini-stack that avoids the giant group of aces taking the hill on the main slate on Saturday.
10. This season, Aaron Altherr has crushed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .333 ISO and 40.0% hard hit rate while striking out just 15.4% of the time. He’s in great company, as the only other players to match or better each of those numbers are Nolan Arenado, Joey Votto, and Anthony Rizzo. Now, Altherr has a poor overall matchup with Robbie Ray, and I typically go out of my way to avoid hitters against Ray. I’m not sure I’ll land on Altherr myself today (although Ray’s 40.0% hard hit rate against righties does add to his appeal), but I bring him up only to make a larger point about today’s main slate: you’re going to have to take a few stands against good pitchers. This is a clear “pay up for pitching slate,” and the list of pitchers we wouldn’t normally pick on is long (Kershaw, Ray, Price, Cueto, deGrom, and to a lesser extent, Gerrit Cole and Lance Lynn with righties). It’s an ugly slate for hitting, and you likely won’t feel great about every hitter that ends up in your lineup, making outside-the-box plays like Altherr a bit more necessary.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
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