10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 26th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Sunday, June 26, 2016.
1. Jose Fernandez has struck out 75 of the 170 right-handed batters he’s faced in 2016 for a league-leading 44.1 K%. In order for Fernandez to fall to the current league average strikeout rate against righties (21.6%), he would have to face 177 righties in a row without striking out a single batter. His opponent on Sunday, the Cubs, were limiting their strikeouts early in 2016, but over the past 30 days, only the Diamondbacks (28.3%) have struck out at a higher clip than the Cubs (24.7%).
2. Corey Seager ranks 4th since 1901 among rookie shortstops in their age 22 season with 16 home runs – and it’s only taken him 75 games to get there. Barring injury, he should easily surpass the other players on the list – Hanley Ramirez (17 home runs in 158 games played for the Florida Marlins in 2006), Roy Hansen (22 home runs in 153 games played for Baltimore in 1960), and Troy Tulowitzki (24 home runs in 155 games played for Colorado in 2007). One other note: each of the three aforementioned players won Rookie of the Year awards.
3. Johnny Cueto has allowed home runs on just 0.7% of plate appearances in 2016 – that’s the lowest mark in MLB, just a tick above Jake Arrieta 0.8% mark. The Giants host the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, and Cueto’s transition to AT&T Park has been seamless – in 55 ⅓ innings at home this year, he’s allowed just seven extra-base hits, six of which have been doubles.
4. Clayton Kershaw is allowing opponents to slug just .258 against him. Thirty-nine pitchers in MLB are allowing batting averages of .258 or higher to opposing hitters, including 11 pitchers on Sunday’s slate. He faces a difficult opponent in the Pirates, but there is increased strikeout upside in this matchup for Kershaw, as the Pirates strike out at a 24.9% clip, second-highest in MLB against lefties.
5. Among pitchers with at least 39 innings pitched against the Orioles since 2013, Drew Smyly has allowed the fewest earned runs, with eight. The next-fewest? J.A. Happ and Hiroki Kuroda…with 18. Against Baltimore, Smyly’s 1.82 career ERA is nearly a run lower than second-place (Kuroda at 2.78), his .152 batting average allowed is more than 60 points lower than second-place (Kuroda, .214), and his .290 slugging allowed is 78 points lower than second-place (Kuroda, .368).
6. In all five of his career starts at Turner Field, Bartolo Colon has pitched at least 6.2 innings and earned the win. Now, this stat falls squarely on the “interesting” (rather than “helpful”) end of the spectrum, as two of those games were played in 2002 when Colon played for the Montreal Expos. But if you’re going to fit in any an elite pitcher and even one or two Coors bats, you’re most likely going to have to stretch on two-pitcher sites. Colon ($7800 at DraftKings) might be the way to do it.
7. The secret is out on Danny Valencia, but I’m still not sure people realize just how good he’s become against lefties. This year, he ranks second in MLB against left-handers with a 240 wRC+. That’s only in 52 plate appearances, though, so let’s extend the sample to 2015. Since last year (201 plate appearances), he’s one of six players with a 150 wRC+, a walk rate better than 10.0%, and a hard-contact rate above 38.0% – the others on the list are Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Ryan Braun, Ryan Raburn, and Mike Trout. He takes on Hector Santiago, a fly ball pitcher who has allowed the second-most home runs to righties in MLB since 2015 (39).
8. As a team, the Milwaukee Brewers have 587 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers. How many of the team’s 79 home runs this season have come against ground ball pitchers? Three. That’s the fewest in MLB. For perspective, the Orioles, in 20 fewer plate appearances, have hit 33 homers against ground ball pitchers. The righty-heavy Brewers face Tanner Roark on Sunday, who owns a 59.3% ground ball rate versus righties this year (fifth-highest in MLB). At two-pitcher sites where he’s cheap, he represents a super-safe complement to one of the big arms. Unfortunately, his $9900 price tag at DraftKings makes him all but unplayable.
9. In the past three seasons (since 2014), Carlos Santana has 32 home runs against fly ball pitchers and just two against ground ball pitchers – that’s a .228 ISO against FB compared with a .049 against GB for an ISO differential of .179. For some context: the career ISO of Stephen Piscotty is .179. Oh, and for the BvP truthers, there’s this: Santana has seven career home runs against Justin Verlander, tied with Jim Thome for most of any hitter.
10. Justin Bour is getting all the revenge. Bour floundered in the Cubs system from 2009-2013 until he was scooped up by the Marlins in the Rule 5 Draft, which is essentially the baseball version of me going to the record store in high school and scouring through the “Used, Slightly Damaged” CD section for anything halfway decent. Bour has homered in each of the past three games, including two against the Cubs, and he has the platoon edge over Cubs righty Jason Hammel on Sunday. If he homers again, he’ll be the first player in history with home runs in four straight games at Marlins Park.