10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Week 15
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 15.
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Week 15
1. Since 2015, Ben Roethlisberger has posted 30 or more DraftKings points in eight home games; that’s the same number as Russell Wilson (4), Aaron Rodgers (2), and Matt Ryan (2) have combined for over that stretch. One of these games, of course, was Big Ben’s slaying of the Ravens on Sunday night, a game in which he amassed 506 passing yards (14th-most in a game in NFL history) on 66 attempts (tied for sixth-most). Can we expect Roethlisberger to air it out 60+ times against the Patriots in Week 15. Obviously not. But his pass attempts have been trending upward, as last week he became the first QB this season with four consecutive games of 40+ attempts. As the end of the season draws near, it’s looking more and more like Roethlisberger’s early-season struggles were as much due to six of his first nine games being on the road. He’s one of the few players whose home/road splits really do seem to matter, and they’ve stayed consistent this year: from 2014-2016, he averaged 27.4 DraftKings points at home and 15.8 on the road; this season, he’s averaging 23.5 DraftKings points at home, compared to 15.8 on the road. The “bend-but-don’t-break” defense of the Patriots may cap Roethlisberger’s touchdown ceiling, but even so, this is a defense that allows 20.6 DraftKings points per game to opposing QBs, third-most in the NFL. If we can expect him to throw 40+ times, he’s underpriced at DraftKings at just $6,700.
2. Over the last four weeks, Le’Veon Bell has run 176 pass routes, most in the NFL among running backs; that’s 68 more pass routes than the player in (a very distant) second, Kenyan Drake (108 pass routes). For just a bit more perspective, consider this: the 68 pass routes that separates Bell from Drake is more than the number of routes run by noted pass-catching backs like Mark Ingram, LeSean McCoy, Christian McCaffrey, and Melvin Gordon over that span. Early in the season, there was talk that Bell’s role had changed, that his work would come primarily in the running game. After receiving double-digit targets just once in the first nine games, Bell has received 10+ targets in three of the past four. This makes him an always-elite option in any format at PPR sites like DraftKings, even despite the high price tag ($9,300).
3. Since Week 9, only two running backs have exceeded 5.00 yards after contact per attempt: Alvin Kamara (5.07) and Kenyan Drake (5.04). You could make the argument that Drake’s maintaining that number is even more impressive, given his has come on 80 carries, compared to Kamara’s 45. Clearly, Drake is an explosive, dynamic runner (and if you need more proof, take a look at this spin move straight out of Madden). Furthermore, with Damian Williams out, he’s getting all the work in the Miami backfield, with 20+ carries in each of the last two games, not to mention 20 catches over the past six weeks. He’s in an elite matchup, as well: the Bills have allowed 1,047 rushing yards, 4.67 yards per carry, and 13 rushing touchdowns since trading Marcel Dareus before Week 9. He’s cheap as a result of playing Monday Night. And as of Week 9 (trading Marcel Dareus), the Bills have allowed 1,047 rushing yards (most in the NFL), a 4.67 YPC, and 13 rushing TDs (again, most in the NFL). So, let’s summarize. Big play ability? Check. Heavy workload? Check. Positive matchup? Check. Oh, there’s one more thing; after playing on Monday night (and thus avoiding a salary adjustment), he’s probably about $1,000 too cheap. Lock him in for cash games, and strongly consider making him a core piece of GPP lineups, as well.
4. With 87 touches since Week 11, Samaje Perine has somewhat quietly been dominating the rushing workload in Washington. For context, his 87 touches over that span is sixth-most in the NFL behind only Le’Veon Bell, Leonard Fournette, Jamaal Williams, Melvin Gordon, and LeSean McCoy. Sure, his matchup against the Cardinals’ third-ranked run defense DVOA isn’t ideal, but Perine has other contextual factors working in his favor. He’s a home favorite, and he’s the only game in town, with backup Byron Marshall placed on injured reserve this week. He should see a minimum of 15 carries (and that’s being conservative), and while he typically needs to score to reach value, he’s shown a surprising touch of involvement in the passing game, catching three or more passes in each his last three games. This is largely a volume play, but if Perine sees somewhere around 20 touches at $4,800, he’s got a chance to be one of the top point-per-dollar plays at the running back position in Week 15.
5. Antonio Brown has six games of 30+ DraftKings points this year; no other receiver has more than two such games. In fact, only four players besides Brown in NFL history have more than six games of 30+ DK points in a single season (assuming we lived in a magical world where DFS had been around through all of football history): Randy Moss (9 games of 30+ DK points in 2007, 7 in 2003), Marvin Harrison (7 in 2002), Lance Alworth (7 in 1965). Last week, Brown exceeded 10 catches and 150 yards for the fourth time this year, which is tied (with Calvin Johnson in 2012, Tim Brown in 1997, and Jerry Rice in 1995) for the NFL record of such games in a season. So yeah…he’s good. And guess what? His Week 15 matchup is, too. The Patriots are allowing 37.7 DK points per game to wide receivers, third-most in the NFL. Brown is a top target on the main slate. The only question is whether enough value opens up throughout the week to pay up at receiver.
6. Dede Westbrook has 33 targets through his first four pro games; only 24 other players in NFL history have gotten that many targets in career games 1-4. Sure, it’s 2017 and teams throw much more than in the past, so that stat has a lot to do with the era in which he plays. But make no mistake; Westbrook has immediately become a major part of the Jacksonville offense. He’s seen a 40.0%+ market share of air yards in three of his four games, his DK point totals have increased each week, and last week, he found the end zone for the first time. Westbrook has clearly gained the trust of Blake Bortles, and he’s in a great matchup against the Texans, who allow 35.2 DK points per game to WRs, sixth-most in the NFL.
7. Over the past six weeks, only six players (DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, Marvin Jones, Sterling Shephard, Larry Fitzgerald, Brandin Cooks) have played a higher percentage of snaps than Josh Doctson’s 93%. Sure, it hasn’t translated to elite production as of yet, with Doctson not yet reaching the teens in DraftKings points in any week. And sure, there’s a chance he’s shadowed by Patrick Peterson, assuming the Cardinals believe Doctson justifies shadow coverage. But in a week that is starved for sub-$4k value options, Doctson is a big play threat in a potent offense, and he’s priced at just $3,800 at DraftKings. He’s not Giovani Bernard or Josh Gordon from Week 14 in terms of value, but I’m willing to take a risk given his price tag and talent, especially in GPPs.
8. Through two games, Josh Gordon already has 10 targets of 20 yards or more. Just to put that into perspective: that’s more deep targets than Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Julio Jones, Robby Anderson, and T.Y. Hilton, all of whom rank in the top 22 in aDOT for the year, have totaled over that same stretch. Each of these receivers ranks in the top 22 in aDOT for the year. Don’t be fooled by the Ravens’ stellar (and misleading) second-ranked DVOA pass defense. They are without Jimmy Smith, and last week against the Steelers, we saw how vulnerable this defense is without their top cover corner. Even before Smith went down with injury (and was subsequently suspended for PEDs), the Ravens had been vulnerable on deep passes, ranking 25th in DVOA on deep passes for the year and allowing 18 completions of 20 yards or more over the past four weeks, with only the Dolphins, Bucs, and Saints allowing more. With his price bumped to $6,800 at DraftKings, Gordon is no longer a cash game lock. But if ownership will be down due to the perceived tough matchup, Gordon makes for an awesome tournament play.
9. Over the past three weeks, Devin Funchess has a 51.0% market share of air yards; the only receiver with more is A.J. Green (58.0%). His 32.0% target share is tied with DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Crabtree for fourth-best over that span, trailing only Green, Julio Jones, and Keenan Allen. While his talent is up for debate, Cam is relying more and more on his big wideout, and this is an excellent matchup for a huge gam from Funchess. Green Bay ranks 31st in DVOA against #1 receivers, and with Aaron Rodgers back, this could be a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. Funchess and Newton makes for a high-floor, high-ceiling pairing that could vault you to the top of the leaderboards if this game turns into a shootout.
10. Jimmy Graham has 17 end zone targets this year; only one player (Austin Sefarian-Jenkins with nine) has more than half that number. While Graham has been quiet for the past two weeks, the Rams can be beaten by targeting tight ends, as they showed in Week 14 when they gave up three touchdowns to the Eagles duo of Trey Burton and Brent Celek. Look for a bounce-back week for Graham at a suppressed price of just $4,900.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, AirYards.com, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!