2021 World Series Betting Preview: Braves vs. Astros Odds, Picks, Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-10-26 14:47:58

On Tuesday night, the Atlanta Braves and the Houston Astros will begin the 2021 World Series, with Game 1 taking place at Minute Maid Park. The Braves won their division series matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers in four games and defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship to advance to the Fall Classic. The Astros easily handled the Chicago White Sox in the division series, and then won the American League pennant after a six game battle with the Boston Red Sox.

Let’s take a look at the odds, rosters and rotations for the Braves and Astros to see which team has the edge. Also make sure to check back for our World Series game previews, as we’ll be delivering MLB betting picks throughout!

World Series Odds

The Astros are consensus favorites to win the World Series across online sportsbooks, with the best price (-145) coming in at BetMGM. Those looking to bet on the Braves can get +130 at both FOX Bet and DraftKings Sportsbook. Yordan Alvarez along with Jose Altuve are co-favorites to win World Series MVP at +1000. The Braves’ Freddie Freeman is priced +1100, making him the favorite to win MVP in the event that the Braves pull off a series upset.

Braves vs. Astros Preview

Offense v. RHP

• Atlanta: 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 13th in BB%, 23rd in K%
• Houston: 4th in OPS, 9th in ISO, 11th in BB%, 2nd in K%

Offense v. LHP

• Atlanta: 20th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 10th in BB%, 13th in K%
• Houston: 4th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 14th in BB%, 1st in K%

Eddie Rosario, Freddie Freeman, and Joc Pederson all have an OPS of .909 or better this October, but the rest of the Atlanta offense has been incredibly inconsistent. Dansby Swanson is batting only .237 with one extra base hit. Ozzie Albies has two runs batted in and a .262 batting average. This lineup will need more balanced production in the World Series if they hope to earn Atlanta’s first title since 1995.

Houston has the more dangerous offensive attack in this matchup by a wide margin. Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Carlos Correa, Yuli Gurriel, and Jose Altuve have all been excellent this October, each posting an OPS of .802 or better. The Astros have scored five runs or more in nine of their ten games during these playoffs. If Michael Brantley or Alex Bregman are able to join the party, this lineup could overcome some serious pitching concerns.

Starting Pitching Options

• Atlanta: (RHP) Charlie Morton, (LHP) Max Fried, (RHP) Ian Anderson, (RHP) Huascar Ynoa
• Houston: (LHP) Framber Valdez, (RHP) Walker Buehler, (RHP) Max Scherzer, (RHP) Tony Gonsolin

Handing the ball to Charlie Morton in Game 1 and Max Fried in Game 2, Atlanta is in a strong position to steal one of the first two games, if not both games, of the World Series on the road. Ian Anderson is likely to start Game 3 at home, where he has been at his best in 2021. Game 4 could be a bullpen game with Huascar Ynoa eating the bulk of the innings in relief. The Braves have a clear starting pitching advantage in this series.

Not having “(player-popup #lance-mccullers)Lance McCullers Jr available does not simply mean that Houston lost an ace at the front of their rotation. It also means that the Astros lost valuable starting pitching depth, which is a difficult problem to deal with during a seven game series. During the American League Championship Series, Houston did not have a single starter complete three innings in any of the first four games. Valdez and Garcia were excellent in the final two games of the ALCS, but there are serious question marks with this rotation heading into the World Series.

Bullpen

Atlanta’s relief unit was solid down the stretch as well—ranking ninth in bullpen FIP over the final month of the regular season. However, Manager Brian Snitker’s heavy usage of his best relievers could eventually become a problem this postseason. In 10 postseason games, Tyler Matzek has appeared nine times. Luke Jackson has pitched in eight games. Will Smith has seven trips to the mound this October. Snitker is going to need to be comfortable going to A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez, and Chris Martin in the World Series if he wants to earn a ring.

Houston has two outstanding options, Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly, at the backend of their bullpen. Graveman and Pressly have combined to allow only two earned runs in 13.0 innings of work this postseason. Phil Maton has been a solid third option for Manager Dusty Baker, but Yimi Garcia, Jake Odorizzi, and Brooks Raley have each been unreliable this October.

World Series Picks and Prediction

Houston has the far better offense in this series, but more often than not, pitching wins championships. Atlanta has arguably the three best starting pitchers in this series. If Matzek, Jackson, and Smith can manage their heavy usage without it negatively impacting their performance, the Braves should be in position to win this series. Between two evenly matched opponents, bettors should expect a long battle that is likely to last six or seven contests.

• Series Winner: Atlanta Braves to win World Series (+130)
• Series Length: 6 Games (+200)
• Series Correct Score: Atlanta Braves 4-2 (+550)

Image Credit: Imagn