2022 World Series Betting Preview: Phillies vs. Astros - Odds, Picks, Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-10-28 11:14:14

On Friday night, the Philadelphia Phillies and the Houston Astros will begin the 2022 World Series, with Game 1 taking place at Minute Maid Park. The Phillies swept their Wild Card series against the St. Louis Cardinals, before going on to defeat the Atlanta Braves in four games in the NLDS. Philadelphia emerged victorious in five games in the NLCS against the San Diego Padres to earn their first trip back to the Fall Classic since winning the title in 2008. In stark contrast to their opponents, the Astros will be making their fourth World Series appearance, looking for their first championship since 2017. The Astros enter play on a nine-game winning streak, dating back to the regular season. Houston won their final two regular season contests against the Phillies before sweeping both the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees during their postseason matchups.

Last year, I correctly selected the Atlanta Braves in exactly six games (+550) to win the World Series for RotoGrinders. Below, let’s take a look at the odds and rosters to see which team, the Phillies or the Astros, have the edge in the World Series. Also make sure to check back for our game previews, as we’ll be delivering MLB betting picks throughout the series!

Phillies vs. Astros World Series Odds

The Astros are consensus favorites to win the World Series across online sportsbooks, with the best price (-185) coming in at DraftKings. Those looking to bet on the Phillies can get +170 at Caesars Sportsbook. Bryce Harper is the betting favorite to win World Series MVP at +550, with Yordan Alvarez at +650 representing the shortest odds for the Astros.

World Series Preview

Offense v. RHP

• Philadelphia: 8th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 20th in BB%, 15th in K%
• Houston: 9th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 8th in BB%, 6th in K%

Offense v. LHP

• Philadelphia: 5th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 8th in BB%, 16th in K%
• Houston: 2nd in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 12th in BB%, 1st in K%

Though the Phillies are 9-2 during the playoffs, they have not hit the ball as well as many would have expected. In 11 games, Bryce Harper has been electric – hitting five home runs and posting a 1.351 OPS. Kyle Schwarber is the only other member of the team with better than a .779 OPS among hitters with at least five at-bats. Nick Castellanos has only a .565 OPS in 41 at-bats, and Jean Segura has only a .630 OPS in 35 at-bats. Philadelphia will need more than two consistent offensive contributors if they hope to pull the upset in this spot.

It is rare that a team manages to get to the World Series in only seven games, but this is the situation in which the Astros find themselves this fall. Through two rounds this postseason, Jeremy Pena, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Chas McCormick, and Yordan Alvarez have each posted an .889 OPS or better for this group. If Jose Altuve, Kyle Tucker, or Trey Mancini can bust out of their collective mini-slump, this offense becomes a threat from the top of the order to the bottom of the order, with no easy outs to be found for opposing pitchers.

Starting Pitching Options

• Philadelphia: (RHP) Aaron Nola, (RHP) Zack Wheeler, (LHP) Ranger Suarez, (RHP) Noah Syndergaard
• Houston: (RHP) Justin Verlander, (LHP) Framber Valdez, (RHP) Lance McCullers, (RHP) Cristian Javier

Handing the ball to Aaron Nola in Game 1 and Zack Wheeler in Game 2, Philadelphia should be competitive in each of the first two games of the World Series on the road. However, the lack of reliable options for Game 3 and Game 4 puts the Phillies in a precarious situation if they are unable to steal at least one game on the road in Houston.

Last year in the Fall Classic, Houston did not have Lance McCullers or Justin Verlander, leaving the rotation without an ace while simultaneously sacrificing valuable starting pitching depth – a difficult problem to deal with during a seven game series. During the American League Championship Series in 2021, Houston did not have a single starter complete three innings in any of the first four games. In 2022, the Astros had each of their starters complete at least 5.0 innings in the ALCS, with three of their four starters pitching into the 6th inning. At this time in October last fall, pitching depth and pitching quality were both major concerns for this roster. Neither such concern exists heading into this series against the Phillies.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Atlanta Braves rode an elite bullpen to an upset victory in the World Series. In 2022, Philadelphia will need a different recipe if they hope to send Houston home once again without a ring. Jose Alvarado and Seranthony Dominguez have been strong during this playoff run, combining to allow only four earned runs in 15.2 innings of work. However, Zach Eflin has allowed four earned runs by himself in only 6.1 innings. Brad Hand has allowed three earned runs in 3.2 innings during this postseason. The latter frames could be an adventure for this group against an extremely high-contact Astros offense.

Houston has no shortage of outstanding relief arms available for this series, with Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly, Hector Neris, Hunter Brown, and Ryne Stanek all having proven themselves as reliable late-inning options for this group. Perhaps even more important, none of these pitchers have been over-taxed during the first two rounds of the postseason, meaning that Manager Dusty Baker is free to be as aggressive as he desires with his arm barn for the next week and a half of action.

World Series Picks and Prediction

Last year’s Houston Astros team had no shortage of deficiencies, but they managed to win the American League pennant as a result of timely hitting and pitching that was simply adequate. Their lack of pitching depth and quality caught up to them in the World Series against an extremely well-constructed Atlanta Braves roster that was astutely managed by Brian Snitker – one of the best managers in the entire league. In 2022, the Astros have a surplus of high-caliber pitching, not to mention the better offense and the better arm barn. There is a possibility that the brilliance of Aaron Nola or Zack Wheeler enables the Phillies to steal one game in this series, but it would be shocking if Philadelphia manages to win four of their next seven games. Expect the Astros to make quick work of a far inferior opponent in this spot.

• Series Winner: Houston Astros to win World Series (-185)
• Series Length: 5 Games (+280)
• Series Correct Score: Houston Astros 4-1 (+400)

Image Credit: Imagn