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2023 Toronto Blue Jays Preview: Futures Odds, Lineup, Rotation, Bullpen Projections

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2023-03-28 11:27:11

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Nick Galaida is here to break down the Toronto Blue Jays’ pitching rotation and lineup as he prepares you for the 2023 MLB season. Follow along for an in-depth preview, along with a look at current odds, projections, and picks. Get a head start on the baseball action with PrizePicks Promo Code GRINDERS for a $100 deposit bonus.

In 2021, hopes were high for the Toronto Blue Jays, but the team finished 91-71 and missed the postseason, finishing fourth in a crowded American League East division. Following a disappointing first half in 2022, the front office decided they had seen enough. Manager Charlie Montoyo was replaced after a 46-42 start to the year, with John Schneider taking over duties to lead the club to a 46-28 end to the regular season. The Blue Jays were swept at home in the Wild Card round in October, again falling short of expectations.

This past winter, the organization invested more heavily in defense and the bullpen, with their sights set on their first playoff victory since 2016. Below, we take a look at this roster position-by-position and provide insight into the futures market!

Starting Lineup

Catcher, Danny Jansen

During the offseason, Toronto traded away prized prospect Gabriel Moreno, seemingly expressing confidence in the emergence of Danny Jansen as one of the game’s premier backstops going into 2023. Among batters with at least 200 plate appearances in 2022, Jansen ranked ninth in home runs per plate appearance, hitting a dinger in 6.1% of his trips to the dish. He trailed only Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Byron Buxton, Kyle Schwarber, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Yordan Alvarez, and Cal Raleigh in this metric.

Still, Jansen’s defense left much to be desired, ranking in the 44th percentile in pop time to second base and the 37th percentile in framing. Throughout his career, he has been better defensively than he showed last year. If he can return to his prior form with the glove, he has a chance to become one of the more valuable catchers in all of baseball.

First Base, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Though Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was a household name before he stepped on a Major League Baseball field, he did not immediately make a positive impact on winning. This was especially true with his glove, committing 17 errors at third base during his rookie season. After showing up to camp in less-than-optimal shape before the truncated 2020 campaign, Guerrero was moved to first base, where he won the American League Gold Glove Award at his position in 2022.

At 23 years old, Guerrero has proven himself capable of being an elite player, both with his bat and glove. Since the beginning of 2021, Guerrero Jr. has averaged 40 home runs, 104 runs-batted-in, and posted a 149 wRC+ – all while walking 10.3% of the time, to go with a superb 16.1 strikeout percentage.

If there are any negatives to highlight in his profile, it is that his barrel percentage, HardHit%, and plate discipline each regressed sharply in 2022. His ground ball rate also increased from 44.8% in 2021 to 52.1% last summer – wasting much of his hard contact. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances, Guerrero Jr. ranked 187th out of 205 players in this metric.

Thus, Guerrero Jr. is not worth a preseason MVP investment. However, he has one of the safest floors of any first baseman in the league, especially now that he has figured out his defense.

Second Base, Santiago Espinal

Santiago Espinal played 135 games last season, hitting seven home runs, stealing a handful of bases, and making regular contact when at the plate. Among players with at least 400 plate appearances last season, Espinal ranked 21st in strikeout percentage. He is also an elite defender, ranking in the 96th percentile in outs above average.

On the negative side, Espinal does not make much solid contact. He ranked in the seventh percentile in average exit velocity, 10th percentile in HardHit%, and the eighth percentile in barrel percenatge in 2022. He is at his best against southpaws, against whom he had an .826 OPS and a .150 ISO. Overall, he is a high-floor player at the keystone, who can also handle shortstop and third base.

Third Base, Matt Chapman

In his first season with the Blue Jays, Matt Chapman had 27 home runs and a .757 OPS in 155 games played. His end-of-season numbers were nearly identical to those he posted in his final campaign with the Oakland Athletics and far worse than his peak numbers from 2019. Defensively, he was still solid – ranking in the 72nd percentile in outs above average, but far from elite, which was his reputation earlier in his career when he won three Gold Gloves and two Platinum Glove Awards.

On the encouraging side, Chapman did improve his plate discipline in 2022 relative to the previous season, which helped him improve his overall contact rate by nearly four percent. Entering his age-30 season, there is little sign of aging.

Chapman will be a free agent this winter, leaving the possibility that we see him find a little bit of extra focus at the plate this summer, as players in walk years magically seem to find more often than not.

Shortstop, Bo Bichette

In 2022, Bo Bichette played 159 games for the second consecutive year, establishing himself as one of the most reliable shortstops in all of baseball. He regressed slightly in his power and contact metrics across the board, but Toronto was hardly disappointed with a player who finished ranked in the 91st percentile in average exit velocity, 94th percentile in HardHit%, and the 70th percentile in xwOBA.

His defense remains problematic, but his bat is more than good enough to overshadow those concerns. If Bichette can improve upon his 14th percentile chase rate from 2022, there is perhaps another level yet to be unlocked with the bat. Until then, expect another good, but unspectacular campaign where he hits 25 home runs while batting near .300.

Outfield, Daulton Varsho

This past December, Daulton Varsho was the piece that came back from the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for Gabriel Moreno. The trade of Teoscar Hernandez opened up an everyday role for Varsho in left field, where he is expected to play.

In 151 games last season, Varsho hit 27 home runs, but he had a .235 batting average and struck out far more often than the league-average hitter. His average exit velocity ranked in only the 25th percentile and his plate discipline was poor, even for a young player.

Varsho’s strong defensive profile and plus-speed make him an intriguing addition to the roster heading into 2023, but he will need to improve drastically against breaking balls and against left-handed pitching if he wants his brand awareness to grow around the league. At a minimum, he is an upgrade over Hernadez. The ceiling is much higher than that if he can make strides against non-fastballs and against southpaws.

Outfield, George Springer

Despite finishing last season ranked in the 79th percentile in xwOBA, George Springer enters 2023 priced at 100:1 to win the American League MVP award. The primary reason for this is the fact that Springer has not played more than 140 games in a season since 2016. The secondary reason is that, in 2022, we saw signs of aging in Springer’s offensive profile for the first time.

From 2021 to 2022, Springer’s ground ball rate increased from 32.6% to 44.5%. He also swung at a career-worst 30.1% of pitches that he saw outside the strike zone, making contact on pitches inside the zone at his work mark in nearly a decade.

Still, a declining Springer is likely an above-average hitter in his age-33 campaign. If he can stay healthy, he will be an impact player for the Blue Jays this summer.

Outfield, Kevin Kiermaier

Kevin Kiermaier is one of the worst hitters in all of baseball, at least among players who are expected to be routinely penciled into the lineup on a daily basis. In 2022, Kiermaier played only 63 games, hitting .228 with an unimpressive 6.3% walk rate and a ghastly 27.6% strikeout percentage. He still possesses elite speed, but his best defensive days are behind him. He will certainly upgrade Toronto’s previously horrific outfield defense, but he is no longer the player that he once was. Kiermaier can confidently be avoided in season-long fantasy and DFS in 2023.

Designated Hitter, Alejandro Kirk

Alejandro Kirk was quietly one of the most productive hitters in the American League last season, posting a 129 wRC+ in 139 games played – meaning that he was 29% more productive than the league-average hitter. He walked more than he struck out, ranking in the 98th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 88th percentile in walk rate. He also made an abundance of hard contact, ranking in the 78th percentile in average exit velocity. Kirk has elite plate discipline and is one of the best framers behind the plate. He does not have the best pop time in the world, but Kirk remains a tremendously valuable piece for the Blue Jays. Expect Kirk to have another super summer, with the possibility that we have not seen the best he has to offer, considering that he is only 24 years old.

Utility, Brandon Belt

Following 12 seasons with the San Francisco Giants, Brandon Belt inked a one-year, $9.3 million deal with the Blue Jays this past winter to give their lineup a much-needed left-handed presence. It remains to be seen if Belt has anything left in the tank for 2023, with many people surprised he didn’t retire after last year.

In 2020, Belt made contact on 86.0% of pitches that he swung at in the zone. In 2022, that number fell all the way to 79.3%, the third consecutive year in a row that Belt regressed in this metric. The signs of aging have been obvious and rapid across the last few seasons. Even against right-handed pitching, Belt offers little more than league-average production at this point in his career. The floor is even lower than that.

Pitching Staff

Starting Pitcher:

Starting Pitcher, Alek Manoah

In his first full MLB campaign, Alek Manoah finished third in the American League Cy Young voting with a 2.24 ERA, 3.31 xERA, and a 3.35 FIP. However, it is highly unlikely that he is able to overperform his peripherals by such a wide margin again in 2022.

Notably, Manoah struggled mightily against left-handed batters, with a 4.16 FIP, 18.9% strikeout percentage, 9.1% walk rate, and a 1.28 WHIP. This was in stark contrast to a 2.44 FIP, 28.0% strikeout percentage, 3.2% walk rate, and a 0.67 WHIP against right-handed batters. As the season progressed, more and more teams started to stack lineups against Manoah to create a platoon advantage.

As long as Manoah continues to feature his fastball at such a high usage rate against lefties, he remains vulnerable to certain lineup constructions. He will need to make adjustments to his repertoire in 2023 if he wants to sustain his early career success.

Starting Pitcher, Kevin Gausman

Kevin Gausman is a far less sexy brand than Alek Manoah, but Gausman is the true ace of this staff. In 174.2 innings last year, Gausman posted a 3.35 ERA, 3.34 xERA, and a 2.38 FIP. He was strong against both right- and left-handed batters, though he did allow more traffic than is desirable against righties.

Improved defense behind Gausman in 2023 is likely to help him finish much closer to his 2022 FIP than was possible last year with Teoscar Hernandez running around in the outfield. Gausman finished last season ranked in the 99th percentile in chase rate, 97th percentile in walk rate, and the 83rd percentile in strikeout percentage.

There are few pitchers in baseball who can generate swings and misses like Gausman. Expect another fine season from him this summer. If he can find a way to limit his fastball usage against righties, there is real potential for him to walk away with individual hardware this year.

Starting Pitcher, Chris Bassitt

Since the beginning of 2018, Chris Bassitt owns a 3.29 ERA, 3.77 FIP, and a 1.14 WHIP across 593.2 innings of work. Simply, he has been one of the most reliable and consistent starters in all of baseball during that stretch. As a result, he earned a three-year, $63 million contract with the Blue Jays this past winter to fill a much-need void in the middle of a rotation that needed stability beyond their top two options.

Bassitt limits hard contact better than almost any other hurler in the league, ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity in 2022. His biggest flaw is against left-handed batters – against which he had a 4.21 FIP, 8.9% walk rate, and a 1.32 WHIP last summer. It is possible that he can correct this issue somewhat if he features more his curveball in 2023, which could potentially make him even more valuable.

Do not expect a Cy Young chase from a pitcher who ranked in the 46th percentile in strikeout percentage last year, but Bassitt’s contributions will certainly be appreciated in Canada nonetheless.

Starting Pitcher, Jose Berrios

Once heralded as a can’t-miss prospect, we can confidently declare Jose Berrios the most overrated pitcher in all of baseball at this point in his career. In 2022, he had his worst season as a professional, with a 5.23 ERA, 5.11 xERA, and a 4.55 FIP. He struggled mightily against both right- and left-handed batters but was borderline un-rosterable against lefties, against which he had a 5.54 FIP and a 1.48 WHIP.

Overall, Berrios finished 2022 ranked in the 13th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xBA, and xSLG. He finished in the 28th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 15th percentile in Whiff%.

It is possible that he could regain league-average production if he increases his slurve usage against left-handed batters, but it is difficult to see a path to stardom for a pitcher who simply does not fool hitters in any way.

Starting Pitcher, Yusei Kikuchi

Kikuchi’s time as an MLB starter appears to be approaching an expiration date. In his first 20 turns through the rotation in 2022, he had a 5.25 ERA and a 5.94 FIP. After going to the bullpen in August, he had a 4.91 ERA and a 4.15 FIP – still poor numbers for a player who will make $12 million this year.

Kikuchi’s best offering has always been his changeup, but he has never thrown it more than 13.3% of the time in a single season. Until that changes, there is zero upside here for a southpaw who is overly reliant on a very hittable fastball and slider.

Bullpen:

Relief Pitcher, Jordan Romano

Since the beginning of 2020, Jordan Romano owns a 2.03 ERA, 3.00 FIP, and a 1.02 WHIP. He is strong against both right- and left-handed batters, making him the perfect high-leverage arm in this Toronto bullpen. He combined elite velocity with elite spin rates to rank in the 82nd percentile in Whiff% and the 80th percentile in chase rate in 2022. He is one of the best closers in baseball, without question.

Relief Pitcher, Erik Swanson

Though Erik Swanson does not have a recognizable name to many fans, he is someone that opposing batters are acutely aware of when they step in the box. In 2022, Swanson ranked in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity, 96th percentile in HardHit%, 96th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 89th percentile in walk rate.

He possesses elite fastball command at the top of the strike zone, which enables his split finger and slider to work beautifully in other quadrants of the zone. Last season, opposing hitters had a .129 batting average and a .226 slugging percentage against his split finger.

Expect dominance from Swanson in 2023. His addition addresses a key need for the Blue Jays and is a major boon to Toronto’s postseason hopes.

Relief Pitcher, Yimi Garcia

Yimi Garcia turned in a 3.10 ERA, 2.90 xERA, and a 3.47 FIP in 2022, but his velocity diminished significantly – leaving him vulnerable if he loses any more oompf on his heater. His spin rates also fell across the board last season, potentially indicating that Garcia, 32 years old, is beginning to decline during the latter stages of his career. He is not the most secure seventh-inning option heading into the new campaign.

Relief Pitcher, Anthony Bass

Anthony Bass was acquired by Toronto at last summer’s trade deadline. In 25.2 innings with his new team, Bass posted a 1.75 ERA, but a 4.63 FIP suggests that he may be in for major regression in 2023. Working in Bass’ favor is the fact that he has finally committed to his slider as his primary offering, throwing it 55.7% of the time last year. As long as he continues to force hitters to do damage against his highest-quality pitch, the floor remains high here. Against his slider, opposing hitters had a .180 batting average and a .324 slugging percentage in 2022.

Relief Pitcher, Tim Mayza

Tim Mayza had a 3.14 ERA, 4.17 xERA, and a 3.98 FIP in 48.2 innings of work last year. He induced a 57.9% ground ball rate, which ranked 12th-best among hurlers who tossed at least 40 innings. He is a solid middle-relief option for this unit.

Toronto Blue Jays – Futures Pick & Prediction

After John Schneider took over as manager of the Blue Jays last summer, the team went 46-28 across their final 74 regular season games – good for a 100-win pace in a full campaign. During the winter, the front office upgraded areas that were weak, including the bullpen and the defense. Despite being an extremely flawed roster in both seasons, Toronto won 91 games in 2021 and 92 games in 2022. This is the best collection of talent that the organization has put together since 2016 – take the over on their win total in 2023.

PICK: Over 91.5 wins (-105, DraftKings)

2023 Toronto Blue Jays DFS Pick’em

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom