Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, June 29th
The short sabbatical last week couldn’t have come under worse circumstances, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say that my first few days completely away from the game since April for a couple of days didn’t recharge the battery. No matter how much you love something, often a break from being entirely immersed in it for a few days is a good thing that can stave off burnout.
Tonight’s slate must be my punishment then. Consider that there is not a single pitcher above $9K on either DraftKings or FanDuel and there are only a handful of above average strikeout rates on the mound tonight, the highest of which is facing the Royals. It’s not going to be easy, but it might be interesting.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Webster | ARI | 2.4 | 5.22 | 5.07 | 1.41 | 1.09 | 4.71 | 5.6 | LOS | 101 | 118 | 80 | 17.9% | 11.9% | 20.5% | 15.5% | 13.3% |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 5.1 | 4.02 | 5.65 | 1.1 | 1.04 | 3.89 | 4.85 | TEX | 86 | 97 | 95 | 19.6% | 7.2% | 20.4% | 11.7% | 6.5% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 1.9 | 4.05 | 6.1 | 1.39 | 0.91 | 3.96 | 3.21 | NYY | 89 | 108 | 123 | 19.8% | 8.2% | 22.0% | 11.5% | 9.0% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -5.2 | 3.72 | 6.01 | 1.4 | 0.91 | 3.54 | 3.32 | ANA | 102 | 97 | 86 | 20.7% | 6.9% | 20.8% | 14.5% | 10.8% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | -3.8 | 3.78 | 6.11 | 1.46 | 1.05 | 3.78 | 3.24 | TOR | 128 | 108 | 87 | 18.7% | 7.5% | 19.7% | 10.8% | 13.0% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | -5.1 | 3.74 | 7.2 | 2.17 | 0.94 | 3.74 | TAM | 109 | 97 | 114 | ||||||
| David Hale | COL | 0.7 | 4.05 | 5.65 | 2.01 | 0.93 | 4.43 | 3.64 | OAK | 107 | 106 | 98 | 16.6% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 10.6% | 9.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.4 | 3.91 | 5.86 | 1.55 | 1.01 | 4.43 | 5.01 | PHI | 79 | 74 | 115 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 20.3% | 7.9% | 11.4% |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 12.4 | 3.79 | 5.16 | 1.25 | 1.01 | 3.63 | 2.14 | HOU | 106 | 105 | 95 | 24.5% | 6.1% | 17.2% | 13.4% | 10.3% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | -8.1 | 4.18 | 5.73 | 1.77 | 0.93 | 4.49 | 4.1 | COL | 87 | 100 | 123 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 22.8% | 15.4% | 10.4% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -3.9 | 3.2 | 5.76 | 1.43 | 1.01 | 3.47 | 4.52 | KAN | 100 | 104 | 86 | 22.0% | 8.1% | 18.9% | 4.4% | 14.4% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 5.7 | 3.5 | 5.64 | 2.1 | 1.09 | 3.66 | 3.3 | ARI | 89 | 92 | 87 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 22.1% | 11.9% | 6.5% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 1.2 | 3.84 | 6.35 | 1.91 | 1.02 | 3.36 | 3.09 | MIN | 72 | 86 | 125 | 19.5% | 6.4% | 20.4% | 10.5% | 10.1% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3 | 4.75 | 5.62 | 1.57 | 1.02 | 5.06 | 4.14 | CIN | 109 | 93 | 92 | 14.8% | 7.8% | 20.0% | 11.2% | 7.9% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 12.9 | 3.9 | 5.71 | 1.28 | 0.94 | 4.22 | 3.21 | CLE | 92 | 99 | 106 | 20.7% | 8.5% | 22.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 2.9 | 4.17 | 6.47 | 1.06 | 1.05 | 4.14 | 5.47 | BOS | 87 | 102 | 79 | 18.2% | 8.6% | 20.7% | 10.2% | 11.1% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | -2.4 | 5.05 | 5.58 | 1.2 | 1.01 | 4.62 | 3.88 | MIL | 76 | 82 | 96 | 17.2% | 6.0% | 19.6% | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 3.7 | 4.29 | 5.28 | 1.26 | 1.04 | 4.12 | 5.63 | BAL | 115 | 106 | 131 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 24.5% | 16.2% | 8.6% |
Bud Norris did not allow an ER in his last start, though five runs did cross the plate during on his watch. He’s struck out just five of his last 47 batters and has been hit hard this year (23.4 Hard-Soft%). He gets a rare home start tonight (five of his last six have been on the road) where he’s been not that bad as an Oriole (3.89 xFIP, 12.0 K-BB%). Despite a tendency for the long ball (11.0 career HR/FB), he has just an 8.1 HR/FB at home since the start of last season. The Rangers have a 23.5 K% on the road and over the last week, but represent a nearly neutral matchup with the positive park adjustment.
C.J. Wilson might be the most expensive pitcher on the board tonight, but that doesn’t make him an Ace. He followed up his best start of the season (eight innings with no runs and nine strikeouts) with one where he didn’t make it out of the fourth inning (seven runs and two HRs). He’s allowed at least four ERs in five of his last eight starts over which he’s allowed a total of eight HRs. Only three of those have been at home, however, and he’s also struck out at least six in six of those eight starts. The Yankees hit LHP well (108 wRC+, 12.0 HR/FB) and strike out a below average amount. In this case, the park adjustment pulls them down to a more neutral matchup, but they’ve been hitting the ball well over the last week.
C.C. Sabathia continues to drive sabermetrically oriented fans nuts. Despite clearly diminished ability, his peripherals aren’t that bad (16.0 K-BB%), but he’s now allowed 16 HRs over his last 12 starts. Perhaps the park shift will help him, but he’s allowed four HRs in his four starts in parks that significantly hurt power. That said, our chief concern is strikeouts and he’s one of just a handful of pitchers today who have delivered them at a league average rate or better this year. The Angels represent a nearly average opponent at home and vs LHP, though they lean heavily RH through the middle of the order, but the park adjustment makes this a positive matchup for Sabathia. The Angels also haven’t hit well over the last week (86 wRC+, 6.7 HR/FB).
Clay Buchholz is coming off back to back strong starts and combines a strong 17.3 K-BB% with a 4.8 Hard-Soft% that represents the best contact management of his career by a large margin. That said, he’s facing the top home offense on the land and while it would look worse if he were a LHP, the Blue Jays still have the 4th best offense vs RHP too. Their power numbers are off the chart and even over a slow week (87 wRC+), they’ve maintained an 18.3 HR/FB.
Cody Anderson was the 13th ranked prospect for the club by Fangraphs this pre-season, who was drafted as a reliever, but developed as a starter with mid-rotation upside. Command (and HRs) were an issue for him last year in AA, but he pitched well enough to be promoted to AAA for just 19 innings before jumping to the majors, where he pitched well in his debut, shutting out Tampa Bay into the 8th inning in his longest start of the year. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but has improved his walk rate and keeps the ball on the ground. It’s a rematch with Tampa Bay tonight, who are a solid matchup at home and park adjust to near neutral here, but have a 27.7 K% over the last week.
David Hale has allowed three to five runs in every one of his six starts this year and that may not be that bad when you realize that he’s had just one start away from Colorado. He gets a real pitchers park tonight, but faces a team that fares well in it and against RHP. They do this by making frequent contact (15.6 K% at home), not with power (6.0 HR/FB at home, 6.7 Hard-Soft% vs RHP). The park effects likely make this a neutral matchup.
Jimmy Nelson is coming off his best start in a while against the Mets (eight innings of one run ball with five strikeouts), but failed to record a single strikeout in his previous start. He has just a 7.4 K-BB% on the road in his young career, but also a 4.5 HR/FB. Tonight he faces the worst offense both at home and vs RHP. In addition, the Phillies have just a 4.0 Hard-Soft% and 6.9 HR/FB vs RHP. The offense has come alive over the last week though as it looks like they may now have a legitimate hitter in the middle of the order. The represent one of the top two matchups of the night, with the other being the Milwaukee offense here.
Joe Blanton is scary, but potentially necessary tonight. He’s struck out 11 of 39 batters and allowed just one HR over two starts. Against the Astros (25.7 K% at home, 26.0 K% vs RHP) he could rack up somewhere close to double digit strikeouts and has potentially the top K% of the night, but this will be the his first start in a park that favors power and it’s been his inability to curtail HRs that knocked him out of the league in 2013 when he had a 19.1 HR/FB and never a rate below 12.2% since leaving Oakland in 2008. The Astros have an 18.4 HR/FB at home and 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP to go along with a 21.6 Hard-Soft% for Blanton.
Lance McCullers would probably be the guy here except for his opposition. His control issues throughout the minors has reared it’s ugly head again (14.9 BB% over his last three starts), but that’s one area where the Royals might actually help him. They don’t wait around. Unfortunately, they’re also likely to derail his strikeout rate (16.9 K% at home, 15.9 K% vs RHP), but perhaps not to the point where it drops below league average. Among these characters, McCullers may still have the 2nd highest strikeout upside of the night (behind Blanton). Another area that may be a strength tonight is quality of contact. McCullers has a 2.5 Hard-Soft% this season, while the Royals have a 7.2 Hard-Soft% this year and a -0.6 Hard-Soft% over the last week with a 6.5 HR/FB.
Mike Bolsinger somewhat bounced back from a rough start in his last outing. He allowed just two ERs, striking out six of 21 Cubs, but failed to complete five innings. In fact, his last three outings combined have lasted a total of 14.2 innings. That’s the main concern here has a solid 14.0 K-BB%, though the walk rate is a little high and we’ll have to talk about the validity of his K%. He returns to Arizona to face his former team and it’s not a bad spot for him, though the park may enhance the opposing offense into basically a neutral matchup.
Mike Leake has gotten his act together and is pitching really well right now. He’s allowed two ERs or fewer in four of his last five starts with just three in the other. He’s never been a strikeout machine, but has even increased that portion of his game to an acceptable rate over the last month. He is a ground ball machine though, which makes his 14.0 career HR/FB more acceptable. It’s also a positive that he faces the worst road offense in the majors and not a good one vs RHP either (7.4 Hard-Soft%, 8.8 HR/FB). Minnesota has, however, hit the ball hard over the last week (18.0 HR/FB).
Nate Karns has allowed a total of two runs over his last 17.1 innings and has allowed just two HRs over his last six home starts after allowing five in his first three. Walks have also been a problem, but he’s allowed more than two just twice over his last 11 starts. With those two problems seemingly under control, he has a big park and a great defense behind him to assist with his 34.2% hard hit rate. I continue to have issue with his K%, which will be discussed below, but Cleveland has been a below average road offense, which becomes even more favorable for Karns in a pitcher’s park tonight. They do retain a strong 8.7 K-BB% on the road though.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Mike Pelfrey (.297 BABIP – 79.0 LOB% – 7.4 HR/FB) – The number I’d most quibble with is a 79.0 LOB% that is still below 80%, but 8.3 points above his career rate. An exceptional 0.7 Hard-Soft% backs up his low HR rate which is in line with his career rate (7.7%), which is why I left it alone, but the 4.2 K-BB% is just not something you can get behind, especially in a daily fantasy setting.
NO THANK YOU
Sean O’Sullivan
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Webster | Diamondbacks | 13.6% | 12.2% | Home | 15.3% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 15.9% |
| Bud Norris | Orioles | 19.9% | 8.3% | Home | 19.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 6.4% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 20.4% | 9.6% | Home | 20.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 3.9% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 20.1% | 6.6% | Road | 20.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 4.1% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 19.5% | 6.9% | Road | 20.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 3.5% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 13.8% | 3.5% | Road | L14 Days | 13.8% | 3.5% | ||
| David Hale | Rockies | 15.1% | 8.1% | Road | 12.1% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.2% | 7.8% | Road | 17.5% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 6.0% |
| Joe Blanton | Royals | 18.9% | 7.0% | Road | 24.4% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 15.4% | 6.8% | Home | 13.5% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 5.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 27.4% | 8.4% | Home | 29.4% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 14.9% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 21.8% | 8.3% | Road | 21.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 11.8% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 16.6% | 6.1% | Home | 20.8% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 5.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 13.6% | 9.1% | Road | 7.6% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 11.7% | 6.7% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 22.2% | 9.4% | Home | 21.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 24.3% | 7.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 18.3% | 7.8% | Home | 19.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 12.9% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 10.8% | 7.5% | Home | 13.2% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 4.6% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 17.4% | 8.0% | Road | 19.3% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.4% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 20.0% | 10.3% | RH | 19.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 23.1% | 10.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 23.5% | 7.3% | RH | 20.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.7% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.0% | 8.1% | LH | 18.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.7% | 8.9% |
| Angels | Home | 20.2% | 7.6% | LH | 19.6% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.6% | 10.0% | RH | 19.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.7% |
| Rays | Home | 22.9% | 7.6% | RH | 21.5% | 7.1% | L7Days | 27.7% | 7.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 15.6% | 7.8% | RH | 17.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.2% | 7.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 18.8% | 6.2% | RH | 18.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 16.9% | 4.2% |
| Astros | Home | 25.7% | 9.3% | RH | 26.0% | 8.1% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.1% | 5.5% | RH | 19.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 14.0% | 10.0% |
| Royals | Road | 16.9% | 5.1% | RH | 15.9% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.4% | 4.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.0% | 8.1% | RH | 19.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.0% |
| Twins | Road | 21.3% | 7.2% | RH | 20.0% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.4% |
| Reds | Home | 18.8% | 8.9% | RH | 18.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.5% |
| Indians | Road | 17.1% | 8.4% | RH | 18.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.7% |
| Red Sox | Road | 16.9% | 8.4% | RH | 16.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.3% | 5.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 20.8% | 5.4% | RH | 21.3% | 5.9% | L7Days | 16.8% | 7.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 6.8% | LH | 19.9% | 5.0% | L7Days | 23.7% | 6.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Webster | Diamondbacks | 21.7% | 8.3% | 13.5% | Home | 20.9% | 12.9% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 30.0% | 30.0% |
| Bud Norris | Orioles | 21.7% | 11.1% | 10.2% | Home | 22.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 22.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | Home | 22.6% | 8.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 22.8% | 16.4% | 9.2% | Road | 19.6% | 17.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 25.0% | 16.7% |
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | 20.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | Road | 17.0% | 8.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 22.2% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 20.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% | Road | L14 Days | 20.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% | |||
| David Hale | Rockies | 18.9% | 11.1% | 8.5% | Road | 16.9% | 7.7% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.3% | 10.6% | 10.0% | Road | 19.5% | 4.5% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 6.7% | 20.0% |
| Joe Blanton | Royals | 21.6% | 19.7% | 6.6% | Road | 13.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Kendall Graveman | Athletics | 23.5% | 13.1% | 6.6% | Home | 24.7% | 19.4% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.8% | 11.8% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | 17.1% | 2.5% | 15.0% | Home | 14.8% | 0.0% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Mike Bolsinger | Dodgers | 19.9% | 12.0% | 2.4% | Road | 22.7% | 10.9% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 14.3% | 0.0% |
| Mike Leake | Reds | 21.8% | 14.2% | 6.7% | Home | 21.0% | 14.3% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.1% | 8.3% | 10.4% | Road | 15.0% | 12.8% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Nate Karns | Rays | 19.6% | 12.6% | 8.4% | Home | 18.9% | 16.1% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.8% | 11.8% | 12.7% | Home | 21.2% | 14.9% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 19.1% | 13.4% | 7.1% | Home | 19.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 31.3% | 6.3% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | Rangers | 20.1% | 15.6% | 7.3% | Road | 18.8% | 16.4% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | Road | 20.3% | 14.8% | 7.6% | RH | 21.5% | 15.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.3% | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.9% | 11.1% | 8.0% | RH | 18.0% | 10.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 12.2% | 6.1% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.4% | 10.1% | 8.6% | LH | 17.4% | 12.0% | 10.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 12.3% | 8.6% |
| Angels | Home | 21.5% | 10.9% | 10.4% | LH | 19.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 6.7% | 11.7% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.5% | 15.3% | 14.5% | RH | 18.8% | 13.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 18.3% | 11.7% |
| Rays | Home | 21.8% | 10.1% | 9.8% | RH | 21.9% | 9.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.3% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 20.3% | 6.0% | 10.4% | RH | 21.3% | 9.0% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 7.7% | 9.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.1% | 9.3% | 8.1% | RH | 22.6% | 6.9% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.2% | 6.2% |
| Astros | Home | 18.2% | 18.4% | 10.4% | RH | 21.0% | 16.1% | 11.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.2% | 6.6% |
| Rockies | Road | 20.7% | 13.5% | 8.7% | RH | 21.0% | 14.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 19.7% | 16.4% |
| Royals | Road | 23.8% | 9.1% | 9.9% | RH | 22.1% | 8.3% | 10.8% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.8% | 10.8% | 8.0% | RH | 21.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | L7Days | 20.4% | 13.0% | 14.8% |
| Twins | Road | 18.7% | 7.6% | 12.4% | RH | 20.3% | 8.8% | 12.4% | L7Days | 16.9% | 18.0% | 11.5% |
| Reds | Home | 22.9% | 15.3% | 8.7% | RH | 20.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.7% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Road | 19.9% | 9.9% | 9.0% | RH | 20.8% | 10.1% | 11.6% | L7Days | 20.6% | 12.2% | 8.2% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.3% | 9.2% | 13.3% | RH | 20.4% | 10.2% | 11.7% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.2% | 10.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 19.1% | 9.6% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 9.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 10.9% | 1.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.1% | 15.9% | 8.3% | LH | 21.4% | 12.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 28.9% | 14.3% | 19.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Webster | ARI | 13.6% | 10.6% | 1.28 | 13.6% | 10.6% | 1.28 |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.81 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.77 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 21.1% | 8.8% | 2.40 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.69 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 20.4% | 9.2% | 2.22 | 22.1% | 11.1% | 1.99 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 23.1% | 11.2% | 2.06 | 21.2% | 11.0% | 1.93 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 13.8% | 8.5% | 1.62 | 13.8% | 8.5% | 1.62 |
| David Hale | COL | 19.6% | 11.9% | 1.65 | 22.2% | 12.3% | 1.80 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.6% | 10.6% | 1.85 | 18.1% | 8.9% | 2.03 |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 23.8% | 11.1% | 2.14 | 27.1% | 12.6% | 2.15 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 14.9% | 7.6% | 1.96 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 27.4% | 10.4% | 2.63 | 28.1% | 11.9% | 2.36 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.79 | 23.1% | 7.8% | 2.96 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 15.0% | 6.3% | 2.38 | 19.7% | 8.5% | 2.32 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.5% | 5.3% | 2.17 | 10.8% | 5.0% | 2.16 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 21.6% | 7.6% | 2.84 | 21.7% | 7.4% | 2.93 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 14.5% | 8.8% | 1.65 | 17.9% | 10.4% | 1.72 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 10.6% | 6.1% | 1.74 | 8.7% | 6.7% | 1.30 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 17.9% | 6.3% | 2.84 | 14.4% | 7.4% | 1.95 |
David Hale has at least an 8.0 SwStr% in every start this season and a double digit mark in four of his six starts despite a K% slightly below league average. Nick Hundley has been the 2nd worst framer in the majors this year (-7.6 RAA), doing him no favors, but there remains some hope for upside in his K rate. You might not expect him to hit that tonight against Oakland, but maybe it gives him one or two more than expected.
Lance McCullers had a K% that drew some skepticism here over his first month in the majors, but has since pulled close enough in line with his SwStr% where I no longer consider it an issue. He’s still on the edge of an acceptable range with a 2.63 K/SwStr, but features one of the better pitch framing catcher duos in the league at a combined +12.1 RAA on the season.
Mike Bolsinger had a league average K% last season (20.2%), but has increased that this year by over three points, despite no change in his SwStr (8.3% to 8.4%). The caveat in his favor here is that the Dodgers have imported the 2nd best pitch framer this season according to StatCorner.com. Yasmani Grandal is 11.3 runs above average or more than a whole win already if you completely buy into the current way of tracking and awarding credit for this.
Nate Karns is another pitcher here who benefits from a strong pitch framing catching corps (+8.2 RAA combined this year). The K/SwStr still falls slightly out of range though and his aside from May when he had a double digit SwStr% in four of five starts, he’s only reached that mark in one other start. I’d be surprised if he had a K rate above league average at the end of the season, though he might be able to maintain something around 20% with the help of his receivers.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Webster | ARI | 6.46 | 5.77 | -0.69 | 5.34 | -1.12 | 6.43 | -0.03 | 6.46 | 5.77 | -0.69 | 5.34 | -1.12 | 6.43 | -0.03 |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 6.7 | 4.56 | -2.14 | 4.57 | -2.13 | 4.8 | -1.9 | 2.82 | 3.77 | 0.95 | 3.7 | 0.88 | 4.13 | 1.31 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.92 | 3.8 | -0.12 | 3.84 | -0.08 | 3.8 | -0.12 | 5.46 | 3.04 | -2.42 | 3.17 | -2.29 | 4.41 | -1.05 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.65 | 3.54 | -2.11 | 3.5 | -2.15 | 4.5 | -1.15 | 5.6 | 3.37 | -2.23 | 3.37 | -2.23 | 5.12 | -0.48 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 3.68 | 3.23 | -0.45 | 3.16 | -0.52 | 2.72 | -0.96 | 2.48 | 3.28 | 0.8 | 3.18 | 0.7 | 2.06 | -0.42 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0 | 3.72 | 3.72 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 2.45 | 2.45 | 0 | 3.74 | 3.74 | 3.55 | 3.55 | 2.45 | 2.45 |
| David Hale | COL | 5.86 | 3.61 | -2.25 | 3.63 | -2.23 | 5.03 | -0.83 | 6.59 | 3.44 | -3.15 | 3.55 | -3.04 | 5.62 | -0.97 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.34 | 4.02 | -0.32 | 4.05 | -0.29 | 4.34 | 0 | 5.4 | 3.95 | -1.45 | 4.1 | -1.3 | 4.56 | -0.84 |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 1.73 | 2.74 | 1.01 | 2.95 | 1.22 | 2.6 | 0.87 | 0.95 | 2.4 | 1.45 | 2.67 | 1.72 | 2.1 | 1.15 |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 3.86 | 4.37 | 0.51 | 4.28 | 0.42 | 4.6 | 0.74 | 2.31 | 3.94 | 1.63 | 3.65 | 1.34 | 3.82 | 1.51 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 2.33 | 3.2 | 0.87 | 3.36 | 1.03 | 2.44 | 0.11 | 2.27 | 3.14 | 0.87 | 3.44 | 1.17 | 2.52 | 0.25 |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 2.95 | 3.51 | 0.56 | 3.34 | 0.39 | 3.07 | 0.12 | 4.68 | 3.79 | -0.89 | 3.49 | -1.19 | 3.35 | -1.33 |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 3.91 | 4.04 | 0.13 | 3.8 | -0.11 | 4.48 | 0.57 | 2.45 | 3.11 | 0.66 | 2.89 | 0.44 | 2.65 | 0.2 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 3.06 | 4.47 | 1.41 | 4.42 | 1.36 | 4.07 | 1.01 | 3.51 | 4.52 | 1.01 | 4.28 | 0.77 | 3.88 | 0.37 |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 3.28 | 3.99 | 0.71 | 3.91 | 0.63 | 3.94 | 0.66 | 2.65 | 3.83 | 1.18 | 3.57 | 0.92 | 3.49 | 0.84 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.88 | 4.84 | -0.04 | 4.8 | -0.08 | 5.23 | 0.35 | 3.09 | 4.61 | 1.52 | 4.84 | 1.75 | 4.35 | 1.26 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 5.34 | 4.99 | -0.35 | 5.1 | -0.24 | 6.29 | 0.95 | 6 | 5.43 | -0.57 | 5.48 | -0.52 | 5.92 | -0.08 |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 4.06 | 4.28 | 0.22 | 4.22 | 0.16 | 4.12 | 0.06 | 4.71 | 4.4 | -0.31 | 4.13 | -0.58 | 3.98 | -0.73 |
Bud Norris has by no means been good, but is likely to see significant regression in his ERA. The most likely area from which that might come is his 56% strand rate. A .335 BABIP is well above his team’s allowed mark, but not too far above his .307 career rate and without any real positive markers that would signify a major adjustment being eminent. A 12.3 HR/FB isn’t far above his career rate and a career high 37.4 Hard% doesn’t suggest regression here any time soon either. As mentioned earlier though, he does surprisingly own a below average HR/FB rate in a power friendly home park since the start of last season though. If there’s one area for optimism it might be in the K% shown in the previous chart, where his SwStr% is still well below his career mark, but has improved over the last month and does imply a higher strikeout rate, which would in turn assist his ERA and estimators.
C.J. Wilson has an enormous 21.4 HR/FB in the month of June, which has likely played a part in his 66.5 LOB%. His 18.9 K-BB% is actually his best month of the season so far. Three of his six HRs were during a single outing in Yankee Stadium, though not the culprits you’d expect (Gardner, C.Young, and Pirela). His home park normally treats him much more kindly.
C.C. Sabathia has a 17.7 HR/FB and at least a 12.5 HR/FB every year since 2012 now, so already we’re looking more at his FIP than the other two estimators. The good news is that his 29.8 Hard% isn’t an enormous number so the HR rate is still likely to drop at least a little. None of his BABIP indicators really inspire a lot of confidence that things bode better for his .343 mark, which can in part likely be blamed on his defense as well.
David Hale has allowed eight HRs (20.5 HR/FB) in his six starts, five of which were in Colorado as previously mentioned. That, right there, shows you some potentially hidden upside on the road. Additional upside can be seen in his SwStr%, although he has to deal with some unfortunate framing circumstances behind the plate. Put him in a big park and you may have a league average pitcher.
Joe Blanton has been exceptional so far, but we’re still dealing with a small sample size. His .264 BABIP is low, but supported by a strong defense and some solid batted ball rates. The 15.3 LD% to go along with just an 8.0 HR/FB doesn’t match up with a 40.5 Hard%, but perhaps that’s an area where a big home park and great outfield defense play their part.
Mike Bolsinger has pulled his ERA in line with his estimators for the season by seeing his HR/FB double from May (5.6%) to June (11.8%) and his BABIP go from .227 to .375. The amazing thing is his hard and soft contact authority rates remained the same with only a small rise in his LD%. He still hasn’t induced a pop up yet, but now his ERA is basically what his estimators say it is after a roller coaster ride for two months.
Nate Karns is really a product of his environment it seems. We’ve seen that in his K%, but also in his .261 BABIP with on otherwise positive indicators. The defense and the park are no doubt a big help to his ERA. I’d still expect a bit of an increase, but perhaps not all the way to four as his estimators suggest.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Webster | ARI | 0.293 | 0.227 | -0.066 | 18.8% | 86.8% |
| Bud Norris | BAL | 0.286 | 0.335 | 0.049 | 7.0% | 87.9% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 0.275 | 0.279 | 0.004 | 10.4% | 88.5% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.307 | 0.343 | 0.036 | 8.3% | 89.5% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.306 | 0.339 | 0.033 | 6.6% | 85.9% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.316 | 0.250 | -0.066 | 16.7% | 82.4% |
| David Hale | COL | 0.312 | 0.327 | 0.015 | 2.6% | 85.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.307 | 0.285 | -0.022 | 10.8% | 85.9% |
| Joe Blanton | KAN | 0.273 | 0.264 | -0.009 | 16.0% | 89.6% |
| Kendall Graveman | OAK | 0.284 | 0.302 | 0.018 | 6.7% | 93.0% |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.277 | 0.265 | -0.012 | 15.0% | 86.8% |
| Mike Bolsinger | LOS | 0.296 | 0.305 | 0.009 | 0.0% | 91.6% |
| Mike Leake | CIN | 0.274 | 0.261 | -0.013 | 8.1% | 95.5% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.297 | 0.297 | 0 | 5.9% | 93.2% |
| Nate Karns | TAM | 0.276 | 0.261 | -0.015 | 7.3% | 88.7% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.283 | 0.257 | -0.026 | 10.0% | 83.8% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 0.311 | 0.290 | -0.021 | 6.3% | 92.4% |
| Wandy Rodriguez | TEX | 0.285 | 0.294 | 0.009 | 8.6% | 90.9% |
All those worth mentioning were discussed above.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Bud Norris is really a borderline option and probably not even in the discussion on most days, but could get some play here due to the circumstances. He carries a low price tag and faces a team with a high strikeout rate on the road. The park should not favor him, but it hasn’t really hurt him in the past and he’s pitched almost exclusively on the road since the end of April, so maybe a home start against a mediocre offense (even with the park boost) gives him a bump here. It’s still a reach.
C.J. Wilson is one of the two most expensive pitchers on the board tonight, but doesn’t grade much better than the rest of the pack overall. He’s a risk, but at least he’s striking batters out. You might think the Yankees are in a bad spot against a lefty away from the short porch in the Bronx, but that’s not entirely the case. They hit LHP well and the park only makes this a neutral matchup. This is essentially a league average pitcher in a league average spot at a slightly elevated price tag. He could be ok and using him would be acceptable in double ups, but we’re still trying to extract value, even on the thinnest of nights.
C.C. Sabathia – The .84 RHB HR factor in the park he’s pitching in tonight should help him normalize the HR rate on a night that you may have to at least consider him given your other options. Making it even more difficult is that west coast umpire assignments aren’t often available much before lock time and he’s one pitcher in particular where a friendly strike zone can really make a difference and vice versa. The Angels lean right-handed through the middle of the order, but are still just league average against lefties and in a park that hurts offense. A favorable strike zone could put Sabathia in the running for top overall pitcher tonight, which says more about the rest of the pack than his skills.
Clay Buchholz has really turned it around and is someone I’ve used a few times this year before his ERA came more in line with his estimators, but it’s just a shame that on a night like tonight he has one of the worst matchups. Like Wilson, it’s not a given that he’ll be bad or even incredibly likely, but the price tag might make him more of a risk than I’m willing to take.
Cody Anderson is the first of many bargain bin or dumpster diving options you might want to take a chance on in order to load up on offense tonight. He wasn’t bad in his first start and gets one of the top pitcher’s parks tonight. He doesn’t miss many bats, but you don’t need him too at this price and he keeps the ball on the ground. The concern would be Tampa Bay seeing him for the second time in consecutive outings.
David Hale is our next dumpster diving option. The A’s don’t strike out a lot, but there is upside in his SwStr% and also in the fact that he’s only pitched outside Colorado once this season, which probably skews his 20.5 HR/FB rate. That’s where he’ll likely get his biggest bump, in a big park against a team that doesn’t hit for a ton of power. Don’t expect too much, but he has a chance to be decent here.
Jimmy Nelson has a top matchup tonight, but there just hasn’t been any consistency since April. After his first three starts, he hasn’t gone more than two in a row without allowing at least four ERs and he has only exceeded five strikeouts in two of his last nine starts.
Joe Blanton has both great upside and great risk. He’s still near minimum price on just about every site though, so it’s probably a good night to take that risk. His outfield defense might not be able to help him with some of those hard hit balls tonight, but the hope is that a high strikeout floor will cover the price tag even if some damage is done. The other positive is that he doesn’t walk batters, so hopefully all three dingers will be solo shots to go along with eight or nine strikeouts.
Lance McCullers loses some of his upside against the Kansas City offense, but they’re also likely to help him in some areas by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and frequently making weak contact. I still might consider him my top guy for double ups tonight. That’s how ugly it is as the Royals would make him really a borderline start most other nights.
Mike Bolsinger has seen some adjustments come his way, but he’s still been a solid mid-rotation starter. He returns to the most hitter friendly park in use tonight, but that only pulls the matchup up to neutral. There are few bats to fear in this Arizona offense and even more so for a RHP. The price is reasonable as well. He’s neither as good as he appeared in May, nor likely as bad as his ERA in June suggests. My biggest concern is that he hasn’t completed six innings in four of his last five starts.
Mike Leake has been pitching well for a month now and with increased strikeouts to go with the ground balls. He has a bit of a HR problem that has to be accepted, but so do the Twins (though not over the last week) and he faces the worst road offense in baseball (72 wRC+) at a reasonable cost that would be on the bottom half of the board most nights.
Nate Karns is a decent mid-tier and priced option that should be able to continue using the park and defense to his advantage tonight. The likely flaw, as with most pitchers tonight, is in a strikeout rate that not only am I bit skeptical of in the first place, but probably won’t be helped by Cleveland either. They could also represent a challenge to his walk rate tonight, though he walked just one of 22 Indians two starts back (just four strikeouts though).
Sean O’Sullivan is terrible, in terms of major league pitchers that is. I’m sure he’s still better than anyone reading this at pitching, but I mention him here just to make a single point when I left him off the write-ups above. He hasn’t been terrible against right-handed hitters, of which the majority of the Milwaukee offense is comprised. In fact, the Brewers are awful on the road and vs RHP, generating potentially the top matchup tonight in an overall neutral park for run environment. I’m still not touching him personally, but if you wanted to be really contrarian (or crazy)?
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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