Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, July 3rd
We’ve got eight games on the night slate on Monday plus two earlier starts. The first one is Wade Miley against Brent Suter, so that game won’t be listed. Unfortunately, the top pitcher today (Stephen Strasburg) is off the main slate as well. There are still some interesting arms to choose from, but no sure things on Monday night. It can’t be worse than the Saturday afternoon slate. I don’t think anything will ever be worse than that.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 2.4 | 3.58 | 5.77 | 51.4% | 0.96 | 3.06 | 3.69 | PIT | 87 | 91 | 81 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 3.9 | 5.33 | 4.65 | 43.2% | 1.04 | 5.06 | 5.71 | ANA | 81 | 82 | 46 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -7.8 | 4.36 | 5.8 | 45.3% | 0.98 | 4 | 3.52 | MIA | 98 | 93 | 98 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | -1.5 | 4.83 | 4.66 | 44.1% | 1.04 | 4.82 | 6.06 | MIN | 99 | 98 | 68 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 7.9 | 5.13 | 7. | 27.3% | 0.89 | 5.31 | 5.13 | KAN | 86 | 87 | 129 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | -0.3 | 4.06 | 5.91 | 44.6% | 0.93 | 4.06 | 9.07 | OAK | 109 | 83 | 70 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 7.8 | 4.19 | 5.78 | 35.2% | 0.89 | 4.85 | 5.11 | SEA | 113 | 107 | 106 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -6.8 | 4.15 | 5.93 | 50.9% | 0.96 | 3.85 | 5.34 | PHI | 94 | 82 | 71 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 1.1 | 4.47 | 5.24 | 43.8% | 1.39 | 4.97 | 5.1 | CIN | 95 | 100 | 91 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 4.6 | 4.66 | 5.51 | 48.5% | 0.98 | 5.17 | 5.83 | STL | 98 | 81 | 86 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -14.2 | 4.63 | 5.61 | 37.5% | 0.93 | 5.24 | 4.24 | CHW | 93 | 85 | 97 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 10.3 | 4.54 | 5.1 | 66.7% | 1.39 | 5.21 | 4.54 | COL | 82 | 76 | 43 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -2.3 | 3.6 | 6.37 | 60.6% | 1.01 | 3.41 | 3.17 | NYY | 126 | 119 | 104 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.5 | 4.86 | 5.79 | 52.6% | 1.11 | 4.61 | 4.98 | BOS | 102 | 107 | 137 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.8 | 3.73 | 6.31 | 48.4% | 1.01 | 3.44 | 3.02 | TOR | 93 | 90 | 46 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 2.7 | 3.79 | 6.53 | 42.6% | 1.11 | 4.02 | 3.59 | TEX | 101 | 96 | 94 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0 | 3 | 6.28 | 41.7% | 1.01 | 3.22 | 2.83 | NYM | 117 | 104 | 94 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | -1.5 | 3.64 | 6.04 | 50.7% | 1.01 | 3.51 | 4.27 | WAS | 120 | 103 | 103 |
Aaron Nola may be the most talented pitcher on the main slate and has been showcasing that potential over his last two outings (14.1 IP – 9 H – 3 ER – 2 HR – 6 BB – 17 K – 56 BF – 48.5 GB% – -3.1 Hard-Soft%). He’s been a strong contact manager on the season (4.5% Barrels/BBE) with a 15.4 K-BB%. He’s in a nice spot against a power deficient Pittsburgh offense, though what came first: the power deficiency or the suppressing home park because they’re in power friendly, run negative Philadelphia tonight. The strength of the Pirates offense (if there is one) is their plate discipline, which is not an area of concern for him.
Andrew Moore located well in his first major league start for the most part and got himself through seven innings on three runs without a walk and four strikeouts in his first major league start a few weeks ago. That’s what he’s done in the minors as well (3.9 BB% at AAA), though he’s also had at least a 19.7 K% at every stop as well. In Seattle, he can get away with a few mistakes as a fly ball pitcher, especially against Kansas City team where he may not walk anybody.
Marcus Stroman bounced back strongly against Baltimore (7.2 IP – 0 ER – 8 K) from a poor start in Texas (4 IP – 7 ER – 3 HR – 5 K) prior. It was the second consecutive start in which he allowed three HRs, half his total for the season (13). He’s generally carried higher than average HR/FB rate, though not that big of a deal with a 60% ground ball rate. He’s one of just two qualified pitchers this year, who can claim that (the 60% ground ball rate). He’ll get whiffs at above an average clip (higher over the last month), though it may not be very consistent and he allows contact at about average authority, which runs his BABIP above .300. He hasn’t allowed many line drives at all this season, but doesn’t generate popups either. The Yankee numbers may look more ferocious than the actual lineup appears right now. They’re down a few key bats and will strike out a bit, though the biggest bat in baseball this year is still right in the middle of this lineup.
Masahiro Tanaka failed to strike out at least eight for the first time in three starts in his last outing, but the Yankees will take it because he did not allow a HR for the second straight start and threw six innings of two run ball. He’s been much better in recent starts and had a decent month of June overall, while continuing to amass a ton of missed bats. He still has some ugly contact numbers (10.7% Barrels/BBE, 39.7% 95+ mph EV) and does not have a real platoon split, which plays against him against a predominantly RH Toronto offense, but they haven’t been very good this season and have a 17.2 K-BB% over the last week.
Rick Porcello has had at least four runs scored against him in five straight starts and seven of nine. He hasn’t had a consistent HR issue and his 16.7 K-BB% isn’t much worse than last year, but his 37.4 GB% and 42.4 Hard% are career worsts. Statcast doesn’t paint a positive picture either, though his 9.9% Barrels/BBE isn’t even one of the three highest marks on the board and his 35.7% 95+ mph EV is more bad than terrible. Texas is not a great park for a pitcher currently struggling with contact, but the offense that inhabits it is just average. The Rangers have a 17.2 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 24.2 K%.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Ivan Nova (.277 – 78.3% – 11.3) does not walk anyone and failed to complete six innings for the first time this season in his last outing. However, he has just a 13.8. He might have the best matchup on the board in Philadelphia (23.8 K%, 8.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP), but he has had issues with power friendly parks in the past.
Alex Meyer (.270 – 74.3% – 9.8) might have some nice upside (25.5 K%, 10.4 SwStr%) if he wasn’t consistently under-mining it with a 15.2 BB%. He’s walked at least four and/or not finished six innings in half his starts.
Ian Kennedy (.201 – 70.6% – 15.1) has not struck out more than five in a start since April and allows the hardest contact on the slate. This is probably one of the best parks you can put him in, but even Seattle has been more power friendly (though run negative) than Kansas City in recent years.
Adalberto Mejia (.277 – 79% – 14.8) – It’s never a good sign when you see a pitcher with an ERA well above four already in this spot. He’s actually not allowed a run in two starts while his strikeout rate has fallen well below average.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Adam Wainwright has allowed two ERs or less in seven of his last nine starts and even struck out eight Diamondbacks in his last start. The problem is that he had a three stretch start where he allowed nine runs twice in between. The peripherals have been perfectly league average and while this hard contact rate suggests league average management, his Statcastt numbers are glowing (85.1 mph aEV and 4.3% Barrels/BBE are lowest on the board). The other issue is that his SwStr% is down significantly for the season and barely able to support a 19.4 K% for the season. The Marlins are a slightly advantageous opponent.
Luis Castillo has walked eight of 46 batters he’s faced, but also struck out nine Brewers in his second start. The Rockies have been so awful (14.5 K-BB%, 29 Hard% vs RHP), that it’s not even a terrible matchup at Coors. They have a -3.1 Hard-Soft% over the last week. Things are still going to go poorly if he starts walking everyone though, not an issue he’s really had in the minors.
Jeff Hoffman had a double digit SwStr% in each of his first four starts, but below 8% in each of his last three. A neutral Cincinnati offense is the worst matchup on the board, by far, in Colorado.
Carlos Rodon walked six Yankees in his first start of the season and had some control issues in his minor league rehab starts as well. His hard hit rate and Hard-Soft were both 35.7%. The good news is that he threw 94 pitches and also has a decent matchup against an Oakland offense that struggles more against LHP (25.4 K%, 10.3 HR/FB) in a big park. They’ve struck out in 32.9% of plate appearances over the last week.
Jeff Locke has not completed six innings in any of his six starts and has not struck out more than five since his first one. The Cardinals are terrible against LHP (22 K%, 9.2 HR/FB), despite a 10.7 BB%.
Jharel Cotton has allowed multiple HRs in five of his last eight starts, three of those at home, though his Statcast numbers show some of the weakest contact on the board (85.9 mph aEV, 4.7% Barrels/BBE). He had been missing bats at an average rate too prior to June. He’s only finished six innings a few times and rarely strikes out more than five, giving him a 10.3 K-BB% on the season. He is in a nice spot hosting the White Sox, who have average power, but poor plate discipline.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 23.6% | 6.5% | Home | 26.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 10.7% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 17.6% | 11.9% | Home | 20.2% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 12.5% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.4% | Home | 19.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 24.5% | 5.7% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 25.3% | 15.0% | Road | 26.4% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 17.5% |
| Andrew Moore | Mariners | L2 Years | 15.4% | 0.0% | Home | 15.4% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 23.2% | 9.1% | Road | 22.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 27.3% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.0% | 8.4% | Road | 21.4% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 8.5% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.4% | 4.7% | Road | 16.8% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 10.7% | 7.1% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.6% | Home | 16.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.3% | 7.7% | Road | 12.3% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 11.6% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.0% | Home | 18.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 4.7% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 30.4% | 17.4% | Road | 22.7% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 17.4% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.6% | 6.1% | Road | 20.6% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 6.1% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 13.6% | 8.5% | Home | 14.1% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.2% | 4.8% | Home | 23.7% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 7.6% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 21.5% | 4.1% | Road | 20.8% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 5.7% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.3% | 6.4% | Home | 30.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 5.7% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 22.6% | 5.8% | Road | 22.0% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 11.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 18.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 19.0% | 10.4% |
| Angels | Road | 21.7% | 9.0% | LH | 19.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 23.4% | 6.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.7% | 6.3% | RH | 20.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.3% | 8.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 10.6% | RH | 22.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 23.8% | 8.6% |
| Royals | Road | 21.3% | 6.2% | RH | 20.8% | 6.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 4.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.9% | 9.3% | LH | 25.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 32.9% | 11.8% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.9% | 9.6% | RH | 21.3% | 8.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.5% | 8.6% | RH | 23.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.3% |
| Reds | Road | 20.0% | 7.3% | RH | 20.9% | 8.5% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 9.8% | LH | 22.0% | 10.7% | L7Days | 23.2% | 11.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.9% | 5.8% | RH | 22.7% | 6.5% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.5% | 7.3% | RH | 22.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.0% | 10.6% | RH | 22.3% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.0% | 14.4% |
| Red Sox | Road | 18.9% | 9.0% | LH | 16.3% | 10.0% | L7Days | 16.8% | 12.4% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.0% | 8.8% | RH | 20.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.1% | 9.4% | RH | 24.2% | 8.8% | L7Days | 31.6% | 9.4% |
| Mets | Road | 20.0% | 9.2% | RH | 19.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.1% | 9.0% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.3% | 9.3% | LH | 21.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.7% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 28.6% | 14.0% | 6.5% | 2017 | 28.1% | 14.3% | 4.3% | Home | 27.9% | 22.0% | 2.3% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 18.2% | -3.1% |
| Adalberto Mejia | Twins | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.6% | 11.2% | 2017 | 31.9% | 14.8% | 9.6% | Home | 35.2% | 17.6% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 0.0% | -8.8% |
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.9% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 2017 | 30.6% | 12.3% | 9.2% | Home | 29.6% | 5.3% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 11.1% | 2.7% |
| Alex Meyer | Angels | L2 Years | 34.4% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 2017 | 31.9% | 9.8% | 12.7% | Road | 40.5% | 13.8% | 25.9% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 16.7% | 3.8% |
| Andrew Moore | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.8% | 7.7% | 22.7% | 2017 | 31.8% | 7.7% | 22.7% | Home | 31.8% | 7.7% | 22.7% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 7.7% | 22.7% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 27.3% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 2017 | 35.7% | 0.0% | 35.7% | Road | 29.9% | 14.8% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 35.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 37.3% | 13.5% | 21.2% | 2017 | 40.5% | 15.1% | 27.2% | Road | 35.2% | 14.9% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 20.0% | 41.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.1% | 14.2% | 14.5% | 2017 | 31.9% | 11.3% | 13.4% | Road | 35.8% | 16.5% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 31.8% | 10.0% | 4.5% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 33.6% | 12.3% | 14.8% | 2017 | 33.1% | 5.9% | 15.7% | Home | 36.0% | 11.4% | 19.0% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 0.0% | 13.5% |
| Jeff Locke | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.3% | 11.3% | 2017 | 30.9% | 12.1% | 16.0% | Road | 31.1% | 13.3% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 15.4% | 18.8% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 32.4% | 12.2% | 10.0% | 2017 | 34.1% | 13.3% | 11.7% | Home | 30.8% | 14.1% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 32.3% | 12.5% | 9.7% |
| Luis Castillo | Reds | L2 Years | 33.3% | 42.9% | 25.0% | 2017 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 25.0% | Road | 41.7% | 66.7% | 33.4% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 42.9% | 25.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.5% | 17.4% | 10.7% | 2017 | 30.2% | 19.7% | 8.4% | Road | 30.9% | 22.2% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 42.9% | 6.1% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.0% | 9.7% | 13.9% | 2017 | 35.4% | 11.5% | 21.9% | Home | 31.0% | 12.2% | 15.1% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.3% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 2017 | 32.9% | 23.6% | 14.8% | Home | 34.5% | 17.7% | 18.1% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 34.0% | 10.9% | 16.9% | 2017 | 42.4% | 12.1% | 24.8% | Road | 33.0% | 12.8% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 7.1% | 8.3% |
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 27.2% | 11.4% | 5.9% | 2017 | 28.3% | 12.1% | 7.8% | Home | 29.9% | 14.1% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 15.4% | 10.0% |
| Steven Matz | Mets | L2 Years | 29.1% | 13.6% | 8.7% | 2017 | 31.3% | 17.9% | 13.2% | Road | 26.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 20.0% | 3.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 30.2% | 12.2% | 8.6% | RH | 30.2% | 10.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 31.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% |
| Angels | Road | 32.3% | 10.6% | 12.9% | LH | 30.7% | 7.8% | 13.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 5.6% | 6.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.6% | 14.1% | 9.0% | RH | 31.1% | 14.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 30.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| Twins | Home | 33.9% | 12.3% | 17.6% | RH | 32.9% | 13.7% | 16.5% | L7Days | 21.2% | 7.0% | 1.0% |
| Royals | Road | 32.3% | 14.9% | 12.9% | RH | 32.4% | 12.4% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.6% | 13.7% | 10.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.6% | 15.2% | 16.7% | LH | 32.4% | 10.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 34.6% | 14.3% | 16.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.5% | 12.7% | 10.1% | RH | 31.3% | 12.6% | 13.4% | L7Days | 30.0% | 17.6% | 14.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.7% | 13.4% | 10.5% | RH | 30.2% | 10.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 33.8% | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| Reds | Road | 29.6% | 13.4% | 10.3% | RH | 29.4% | 14.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.9% | 15.8% | 8.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 31.8% | 11.4% | 12.0% | LH | 33.3% | 9.2% | 16.0% | L7Days | 38.9% | 10.7% | 24.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.3% | 14.4% | 15.1% | RH | 30.9% | 13.3% | 11.8% | L7Days | 25.2% | 16.4% | 1.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.6% | 15.3% | 10.5% | RH | 29.0% | 12.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 24.2% | 9.3% | -3.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 31.7% | 20.6% | 10.5% | RH | 32.2% | 17.3% | 13.0% | L7Days | 32.6% | 9.2% | 13.6% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.3% | 11.8% | 13.6% | LH | 33.5% | 9.4% | 11.0% | L7Days | 31.3% | 11.0% | 13.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.2% | 15.4% | 13.3% | RH | 31.3% | 14.6% | 11.2% | L7Days | 29.7% | 9.4% | 2.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 34.8% | 16.7% | 15.5% | RH | 33.3% | 17.1% | 12.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 24.6% | 3.2% |
| Mets | Road | 37.2% | 16.2% | 19.8% | RH | 35.5% | 13.3% | 18.4% | L7Days | 34.0% | 10.4% | 20.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.3% | 15.4% | 15.2% | LH | 31.1% | 17.1% | 10.1% | L7Days | 32.4% | 10.5% | 14.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 23.5% | 9.4% | 2.50 | 25.9% | 8.3% | 3.12 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 1.81 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.4% | 7.5% | 2.59 | 18.0% | 5.1% | 3.53 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 25.5% | 10.4% | 2.45 | 26.8% | 12.7% | 2.11 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.20 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.20 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 9.1% | 2.1% | 4.33 | 9.1% | 2.1% | 4.33 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.3% | 8.7% | 2.33 | 19.1% | 8.4% | 2.27 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 13.8% | 7.3% | 1.89 | 15.8% | 7.9% | 2.00 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 24.9% | 10.2% | 2.44 | 21.8% | 8.7% | 2.51 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 18.6% | 9.0% | 2.07 | 15.6% | 7.8% | 2.00 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 19.9% | 9.4% | 2.12 | 19.4% | 7.8% | 2.49 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 30.4% | 13.5% | 2.25 | 30.4% | 13.5% | 2.25 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 20.5% | 10.4% | 1.97 | 22.1% | 12.4% | 1.78 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 16.6% | 7.6% | 2.18 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 1.62 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 22.7% | 14.3% | 1.59 | 27.6% | 16.8% | 1.64 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 21.2% | 9.9% | 2.14 | 18.8% | 7.9% | 2.38 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 28.8% | 12.7% | 2.27 | 31.6% | 15.1% | 2.09 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 16.7% | 4.3% | 3.88 | 16.7% | 4.3% | 3.88 |
The drop in SwStr% for Aaron Nola is a bit concerning. He hasn’t been above average since prior to his DL stint, when he started the season with three straight starts in double digits. He hasn’t been above 9% in three starts.
You might think that Masahiro Tanaka is finally reaching his SwStr% with the increase in K% over the last month, but that would only mean you’ve failed to notice that his SwStr% continues to increase to an obscene rate as well.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 4.13 | 4 | -0.13 | 3.77 | -0.36 | 3.83 | -0.3 | 3.03 | -1.10 | 3.24 | 3.87 | 0.63 | 3.64 | 0.4 | 3.59 | 0.35 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 4.38 | 5.26 | 0.88 | 5.4 | 1.02 | 5.55 | 1.17 | 5.01 | 0.63 | 4.88 | 5.55 | 0.67 | 5.94 | 1.06 | 5.72 | 0.84 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.17 | 4.46 | -0.71 | 4.2 | -0.97 | 4.04 | -1.13 | 6.12 | 0.95 | 8.75 | 4.51 | -4.24 | 4.33 | -4.42 | 5.72 | -3.03 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 3.74 | 4.83 | 1.09 | 4.39 | 0.65 | 4.01 | 0.27 | 4.15 | 0.41 | 2.42 | 4.6 | 2.18 | 3.8 | 1.38 | 3.41 | 0.99 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 3.86 | 5.13 | 1.27 | 5.31 | 1.45 | 3.85 | -0.01 | 7.99 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 5.13 | 1.27 | 5.31 | 1.45 | 3.85 | -0.01 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0 | 9.07 | 9.07 | 7.01 | 7.01 | 5.94 | 5.94 | 8.61 | 8.61 | 0 | 9.07 | 9.07 | 7.01 | 7.01 | 5.94 | 5.94 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.72 | 5.01 | 0.29 | 5.39 | 0.67 | 5.64 | 0.92 | 5.57 | 0.85 | 4.08 | 5 | 0.92 | 5.51 | 1.43 | 5.83 | 1.75 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 3.08 | 4.48 | 1.4 | 4.1 | 1.02 | 3.82 | 0.74 | 4.64 | 1.56 | 3.48 | 4.69 | 1.21 | 4.45 | 0.97 | 5.24 | 1.76 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 4.04 | 3.84 | -0.2 | 4.06 | 0.02 | 2.83 | -1.21 | 3.73 | -0.31 | 4.4 | 4.26 | -0.14 | 4.36 | -0.04 | 2.76 | -1.64 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 5.52 | 4.66 | -0.86 | 4.64 | -0.88 | 4.4 | -1.12 | 5.32 | -0.20 | 6.46 | 5.27 | -1.19 | 5.36 | -1.1 | 5.29 | -1.17 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 5.02 | 4.87 | -0.15 | 5.23 | 0.21 | 5.15 | 0.13 | 6.90 | 1.88 | 4.84 | 4.79 | -0.05 | 5.32 | 0.48 | 6.09 | 1.25 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 3.38 | 4.52 | 1.14 | 3.94 | 0.56 | 6.42 | 3.04 | 5.24 | 1.86 | 3.38 | 4.54 | 1.16 | 3.94 | 0.56 | 6.42 | 3.04 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.41 | 3.63 | 0.22 | 3.45 | 0.04 | 3.96 | 0.55 | 3.47 | 0.06 | 3.69 | 3.29 | -0.4 | 3.18 | -0.51 | 4.4 | 0.71 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 4.7 | 4.92 | 0.22 | 4.55 | -0.15 | 4.28 | -0.42 | 5.30 | 0.60 | 6.3 | 5.05 | -1.25 | 4.95 | -1.35 | 5.59 | -0.71 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 5.56 | 3.9 | -1.66 | 3.87 | -1.69 | 5.12 | -0.44 | 4.18 | -1.38 | 3.94 | 3.34 | -0.6 | 3.14 | -0.8 | 4.82 | 0.88 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.06 | 4.09 | -0.97 | 4.26 | -0.8 | 3.99 | -1.07 | 5.39 | 0.33 | 6.63 | 4.45 | -2.18 | 4.59 | -2.04 | 4.58 | -2.05 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 3.51 | 3.37 | -0.14 | 3.28 | -0.23 | 3.09 | -0.42 | 2.53 | -0.98 | 4.58 | 3.13 | -1.45 | 3.19 | -1.39 | 4.1 | -0.48 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 2.67 | 4.6 | 1.93 | 4.43 | 1.76 | 4.99 | 2.32 | 4.14 | 1.47 | 2.67 | 4.6 | 1.93 | 4.43 | 1.76 | 4.99 | 2.32 |
Masahiro Tanaka has a HR problem (23.6 HR/FB) and it’s undeniable that he’s routinely been squared up in a power friendly park.
Rick Porcello does not have ideal contact management numbers, but they don’t imply a .367 BABIP along with a 17 HRs. His BABIP profile is about average and the park is tough, but there should be some improvement there and his 66.8 LOB% should follow.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.302 | 0.305 | 0.003 | 49.5% | 0.201 | 5.4% | 85.4% | 86.4 | 4.50% | 3.10% | 133 |
| Adalberto Mejia | MIN | 0.293 | 0.277 | -0.016 | 43.9% | 0.172 | 11.5% | 86.1% | 88.7 | 11.30% | 7.50% | 106 |
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.292 | 0.344 | 0.052 | 48.3% | 0.243 | 12.3% | 90.8% | 85.1 | 4.30% | 3.10% | 208 |
| Alex Meyer | ANA | 0.284 | 0.270 | -0.014 | 47.1% | 0.236 | 14.6% | 85.6% | 86.8 | 6.80% | 3.90% | 103 |
| Andrew Moore | SEA | 0.281 | 0.238 | -0.043 | 27.3% | 0.136 | 0.0% | 93.8% | ||||
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.284 | 0.143 | -0.141 | 50.0% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 95.0% | ||||
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.302 | 0.201 | -0.101 | 37.8% | 0.115 | 7.5% | 83.3% | 89.8 | 11.90% | 8.00% | 160 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.305 | 0.277 | -0.028 | 48.3% | 0.235 | 9.3% | 92.3% | 88.2 | 5.40% | 4.60% | 294 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.297 | 0.297 | 0 | 38.1% | 0.186 | 7.8% | 86.8% | 86.9 | 6.60% | 4.50% | 121 |
| Jeff Locke | MIA | 0.289 | 0.300 | 0.011 | 50.0% | 0.149 | 6.1% | 87.5% | 88.2 | 5.10% | 3.70% | 78 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.294 | 0.276 | -0.018 | 37.5% | 0.154 | 14.3% | 83.1% | 85.9 | 4.70% | 3.20% | 214 |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | 0.289 | 0.333 | 0.044 | 66.7% | 0.042 | 14.3% | 84.0% | ||||
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.306 | 0.312 | 0.006 | 60.8% | 0.169 | 3.0% | 88.8% | 87.9 | 7.00% | 5.10% | 258 |
| Martin Perez | TEX | 0.290 | 0.358 | 0.068 | 44.1% | 0.27 | 9.0% | 90.3% | 87.4 | 5.90% | 4.40% | 256 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.287 | 0.316 | 0.029 | 49.3% | 0.182 | 12.4% | 85.8% | 88.9 | 10.70% | 7.60% | 261 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.308 | 0.367 | 0.059 | 37.4% | 0.22 | 9.3% | 86.7% | 88.9 | 9.90% | 7.30% | 263 |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.295 | 0.287 | -0.008 | 44.9% | 0.208 | 8.8% | 84.3% | 88.1 | 8.80% | 5.80% | 216 |
| Steven Matz | NYM | 0.317 | 0.218 | -0.099 | 51.2% | 0.146 | 7.1% | 90.5% |
Masahiro Tanaka has an excellent BABIP profile with his hard contact mostly leaving the yard, so perhaps he’s in line for improvement here or maybe his HRs turn into line drives? He’s generally run about 40 points lower with average contact management for his career.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Aaron Nola (1) may have less strikeout potential considering the opposing team tendencies and his own lower SwStr% recently, but he should be able to limit damage. Philadelphia actually plays as a slight pitcher’s park overall in recent years. He may be the most talented pitcher left on the board and this should be a favorable spot.
Value Tier Two
Masahiro Tanaka (2) has been pitching well recently and missing a ton of bats against an offense that hasn’t been doing well. There are still obvious dangers in this option, but what alternatives don’t have similar perils tonight?
Value Tier Three
Marcus Stroman (3) is not in a good spot, but perhaps a better one than the numbers would have you believe against a nearly depleted Yankee offense, which the high cost seems to imply. While he’ll generally keep the ball on the ground, he does allow some HRs. In fact, he’s had one strong start and one disastrous one against the Yankees this season.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Andrew Moore appears to be more of a control and location guy than someone who has blow you away potential, but his skill set may fit that park and he’s in a nice spot to complement a higher cost pitcher tonight. Although, you may not need to do that unless you’re looking for top of the line bats across the board.
Rick Porcello would generally be an omission on most board, especially in a difficult park, but it’s a weak board and the peripherals are strong, though note that strikeouts are down over the last month. The park is more of a concern than the offense.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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