Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, June 11th
Just in order to confuse as many readers as possible, all pitchers 4pm ET or later are going to be listed today, but we’re only covering the six game late slate in the notes below. The interesting thing is that there doesn’t appear to really be any low priced pitchers tonight, which could make things interesting on two pitcher sites. Let’s see.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -9.4 | 3.54 | 5.83 | 2.04 | 0.95 | 3.37 | 2.77 | PIT | 123 | 112 | 107 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | -5.1 | 3.42 | 6.09 | 1.36 | 0.97 | 2.66 | 3.67 | HOU | 100 | 97 | 103 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 12.7 | 4.4 | 6.22 | 0.76 | 0.9 | 4.57 | 5.18 | SEA | 116 | 118 | 104 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -6.6 | 4.54 | 5.66 | 0.95 | 1.02 | 5.25 | 5.69 | OAK | 92 | 87 | 66 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | -13.6 | 0 | 0 | 1.02 | CIN | 90 | 82 | 109 | |||
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 4.6 | 4.85 | 5.78 | 0.59 | 0.99 | 5.35 | KAN | 87 | 92 | 55 | |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.7 | 3.66 | 5.88 | 1.91 | 0.95 | 3.24 | 5.9 | STL | 116 | 94 | 130 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 10 | 2.8 | 6.81 | 2.2 | 0.96 | 2.65 | 2.24 | ATL | 64 | 72 | 102 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -5.7 | 4.1 | 5.32 | 1.81 | 0.9 | 4.04 | 2.18 | TEX | 86 | 100 | 115 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 7.2 | 3.72 | 6.71 | 1.21 | 0.89 | 3.95 | 4.41 | LOS | 87 | 90 | 76 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 1.5 | 2.64 | 6.05 | 1.26 | 1.07 | 2.65 | 1.33 | ARI | 98 | 93 | 98 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -8 | 3.81 | 6.51 | 0.84 | 1.02 | 3.99 | 3.03 | NYY | 105 | 90 | 141 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | -2.7 | 4.22 | 5.29 | 1.14 | 1.05 | 4.2 | 3.84 | MIL | 94 | 89 | 73 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | -1.9 | 3.39 | 6.45 | 1.59 | 1.02 | 3.44 | 4.64 | DET | 96 | 107 | 106 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.1 | 3.66 | 5.78 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 3.46 | 2.47 | CLE | 78 | 101 | 86 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 1.3 | 4.8 | 5.94 | 0.81 | 0.96 | 5.15 | 5.31 | CHC | 113 | 105 | 77 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 3.9 | 3.72 | 5.93 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 4.36 | 4.99 | TAM | 88 | 99 | 136 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 1.5 | 3.96 | 5.81 | 1.09 | 0.89 | 4.35 | 3.11 | SFO | 107 | 102 | 46 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 10.4 | 4.15 | 5.9 | 0.99 | 0.92 | 4.15 | 3.73 | ANA | 95 | 99 | 86 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 1.3 | 4.3 | 6.43 | 2.16 | 1.37 | 4.15 | 4.55 | SDG | 85 | 75 | 102 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | -5.9 | 4.4 | 5.65 | 1.88 | 1.05 | 4.56 | 5.49 | NYM | 102 | 101 | 94 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | -7.7 | 4.16 | 4.87 | 1.43 | 1.07 | 3.07 | FLA | 107 | 94 | 92 |
Carlos Martinez has struck out at least seven (with a double digit SwStr%) in three straight starts, something he’d previously only done once this season. Overall, he has a has a perfectly league average 12.4 K-BB% with a 54.5 GB%, but a lot of hard contact (16.7 Hard-Soft%). The Pirates have the 2nd best home offense in baseball (park adjusted) and are top five vs RHP as well. Despite a pitcher friendly park, this is one of the less favorable matchups on the late board.
James Paxton has had an odd first two starts. He’s struck out 17 of 49 batters, but has allowed 11 ERs with only four of them being earned. Three of his six fly balls have left the yard. It’s still less than 10 innings, but he’s nearly doubled his K%, while cutting his BB% in half and doubling his SwStr% as well. He’s not expected to maintain this pace obviously. Texas is a marginal offense that struggles on the road and doesn’t take walks (5.4% vs LHP). They line up as a favorable park adjusted matchup tonight.
Jeff Samardzija has allowed 10 ERs in his last 10 innings with four HRs in his last start in St Louis and just six strikeouts (47 batters) overall. His season K% and SwStr% are perfectly league average and he’s allowed two ERs or less in three of his four home starts. Despite decent enough underlying numbers the Dodgers have struggled on the road and vs RHP via wRC+ and may be tonight’s top matchup in the most negative run environment in play.
Jose Fernandez has struck out nine or more in five of his last six starts, also going seven innings in five of six with no runs in his last two. He leads the league with a 37.7 K% (by nearly four points) and 15.2 SwStr%, but is 2nd with a 29.1 K-BB%. The contact has been a bit hard (32.9 Hard%), but not enough batters are hitting the ball to matter that much. He faces a below average offense vs RHP, though they have a 35.7 Hard% and 16.9 HR/FB at home. One of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball promotes them to a neutral matchup here. They have a 29.3 K% over the last week.
Matt Shoemaker came back below the clouds in his last start at Yankee Stadium, allowing four runs and striking out only six of 29 batters, but still lasting 7.2 innings. His velocity remained up and he once again threw a splitter more than 40% of the time with a double digit SwStr% for the 5th consecutive start. Cleveland is not a bad offense vs RHP with slightly above average walk and HR rates. He did allow two HRs in his last start, but has only allowed three of nine in a friendly home park. The Tribe has a bottom five road offense this season (23.4 K%) and park adjust pretty favorably here.
Scott Kazmir has struck out 24 of his last 66 batters, allowing just four total runs without a HR and three walks in three starts since walking seven Padres. He did have his worst of those starts against Atlanta last time out, lasting only five innings though. He’s allowed 12 HRs on the season (16.4 HR/FB), but none in his last three starts. The HRs have come in bunches though, with multiple bombs in five starts and just one total in his other seven. The great news is that his 24.0 Soft% is 8th best in baseball, though seven of the guys in the top 13 have a HR/FB higher than league average. The Giants are a good offense when they’re on the field (7.4 K-BB% at home), but they haven’t been with Pence injured and Posey banged up. They have the coldest bats in the league over the last week (27.3 K%) and have always struggled to hit for power in a difficult home park (7.4 HR/FB, 5.0 Hard-Soft%), though it’s much tougher on LH power than RH.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Masahiro Tanaka (.252 BABIP – 75.4 LOB% – 9.8 HR/FB) has a decent enough BABIP profile, but not one that should have him 50 points below his defense. He has a 14.6 career HR/FB with the same rate of hard contact last year (31%) and the higher mark makes more sense considering Yankee Stadium or at least something in between. The strikeout rate has tanked over the last month, though he still has a strong SwStr% for the season. I think the Yankees were hoping for more than a league average strikeout rate though. He’s also gone from a top three GB% over his first six starts to just outside the top 20 after a mediocre 45.1 GB% over his last six. The Tigers have a K-BB above 16% both on the road and vs RHP with just a 26.4 Hard% and 7.7 HR/FB over the last week, but have been formidable vs RHP (14.2 Hard-Soft%, 13.2 HR/FB).
Colby Lewis (.264 BABIP – 82.9 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB) is well off his career marks in BABIP (.298) and LOB% (70.1), striking out just seven of his last 75 batters. Seattle is the 3rd best offense vs RHP with a major league high 16.3 HR/FB against them and also as well the MLB best 18.1 HR/FB at home. So much for Safeco destroying power.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Trevor Bauer can miss bats, but so can several other pitchers in his price range and while they all carry risk, his is almost always going to be the highest. What I will say favorably is that he appears to have cut his walk rate closer to league average, allowing him to go at least seven innings in each of his last two starts, but he’s struck out four or fewer in half of his eight starts. The Angels might even be a favorable matchup in a pitcher friendly park, but have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball vs RHP (16.0%).
Francisco Liriano has allowed 11 ERs over his last 9.1 innings and has walked 13 of his last 72 batters, striking out just two in two of his last three starts in which his SwStr hasn’t been above 8.0% once. He somehow has an 18.3 HR/FB at home since last season too. His cost is so low on DraftKings that you almost want to take a shot just in case he realizes past glory because his two best starts this season have been against the Cardinals (13 IP – 8 H – 2 ER – 0 HR – 7 BB – 20 K – 54 BF). Against the rest of baseball: 48.2 IP – 55 H – 35 ER – 12 HR – 31 BB – 40 K – 227 BF.
Justin Verlander has gone at least seven innings with seven strikeouts in each of his last six starts with a K-BB approaching 20% (19.5) for the season. The concern here is his 0.73 GB/FB is the lowest rate of his career and though the Yankees have just a 25.1 Hard% vs RHP, they are one of the hottest offenses in baseball, striking out just 13.3% over the last week and a 26.2 Hard% at home still gives them a 14.1 HR/FB. They can pop the ball up over that right field wall and more balls in the air gives them more opportunities to do so. He’s not really facing this team in this park at a great time and while he should still pitch well and could generate a decent amount of strikeouts here, it might not be as much of a given as people might expect and you’re playing a lot to roster him (especially on DraftKings).
Zachary Godley pitched 36.2 innings for Arizona last year, starting in six of his nine outings, missing bats at a slightly higher than league average rate (22.7 K%), but also had a walk rate in double digits (11.3%). He started the season in AA for 49 innings where his walk rate was cut in half, but he had just a 15.5 K%. Three starts and 18 innings in AAA gives him back a 20.7 K%, but also an 11.0 BB%. Fangraph’s 2016 organizational prospect rankings didn’t have nice things to say, calling him a “one trick pony” with below average command.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 23.5% | 8.5% | Road | 24.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.6% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 26.3% | 8.5% | Home | 32.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 9.3% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 16.7% | 5.2% | Road | 17.2% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 7.8% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 20.3% | 10.9% | Home | 17.8% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 13.7% | 9.8% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | L2 Years | 20.1% | 11.3% | Home | 18.9% | 13.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 25.6% | 10.7% | Home | 25.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 27.7% | 6.2% | Road | 25.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 10.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.6% | Home | 20.4% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 34.7% | 4.1% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.3% | 4.9% | Home | 20.8% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 4.3% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.9% | 7.0% | Road | 32.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 42.6% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 21.6% | 6.2% | Road | 21.7% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 1.9% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 18.9% | 8.4% | Road | 20.5% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 3.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.8% | 4.4% | Home | 21.6% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 4.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 21.6% | 5.2% | Home | 25.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 16.2% | 7.8% | Home | 14.6% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 10.2% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 23.0% | 7.1% | Road | 19.9% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 14.5% | 7.3% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.7% | Road | 20.0% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 27.9% | 4.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.7% | 9.7% | Road | 24.1% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 7.1% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.4% | Home | 13.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 8.8% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 15.0% | 8.0% | Home | 12.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 6.7% | 8.9% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 22.7% | 11.3% | Home | 28.9% | 2.2% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 18.4% | 9.7% | RH | 19.0% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.9% | 11.1% |
| Astros | Road | 23.9% | 9.6% | RH | 25.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 13.1% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.5% | 8.9% | RH | 19.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.8% | 6.3% | RH | 18.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.7% | 7.8% |
| Reds | Home | 23.0% | 6.1% | RH | 23.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 27.6% | 6.0% |
| Royals | Road | 20.9% | 5.7% | RH | 19.8% | 6.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 5.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.0% | 9.3% | LH | 20.5% | 9.5% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.4% |
| Braves | Home | 21.6% | 8.1% | RH | 19.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 20.2% | 6.1% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.0% | 5.3% | LH | 19.7% | 5.4% | L7Days | 18.6% | 5.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.5% | 8.7% | RH | 20.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 17.8% | 11.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.4% | 8.2% | RH | 22.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 29.3% | 10.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 17.7% | 9.0% | RH | 18.6% | 7.9% | L7Days | 13.3% | 6.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 24.2% | 10.5% | RH | 26.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 23.8% | 6.9% | RH | 23.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 18.3% | 8.3% |
| Indians | Road | 23.4% | 7.3% | RH | 21.2% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.5% |
| Cubs | Road | 20.0% | 10.3% | RH | 22.0% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 4.1% |
| Rays | Home | 26.2% | 7.5% | RH | 25.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.8% | 12.2% |
| Giants | Home | 17.8% | 10.4% | LH | 18.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 27.3% | 5.2% |
| Angels | Home | 16.8% | 8.6% | RH | 16.0% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 3.6% |
| Padres | Road | 25.4% | 6.3% | RH | 24.3% | 6.0% | L7Days | 22.8% | 5.1% |
| Mets | Road | 23.9% | 8.1% | RH | 23.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.7% | 9.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.6% | 7.2% | RH | 19.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 16.8% | 4.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.6% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 2016 | 31.9% | 11.5% | 16.7% | Road | 30.4% | 9.2% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 14.3% | 27.8% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | L2 Years | 33.2% | 11.6% | 15.5% | 2016 | 36.1% | 21.5% | 18.3% | Home | 33.0% | 10.9% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 34.6% | 21.1% | 16.4% |
| Colby Lewis | Rangers | L2 Years | 35.3% | 9.9% | 22.1% | 2016 | 37.8% | 10.9% | 24.3% | Road | 35.5% | 8.4% | 19.8% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 7.7% | 14.6% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 29.1% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 2016 | 30.6% | 11.3% | 13.1% | Home | 29.1% | 7.8% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 10.5% | 12.8% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2016 | Road | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Erik Johnson | White Sox | L2 Years | 41.0% | 19.1% | 26.6% | 2016 | 50.0% | 33.3% | 36.1% | Home | 44.2% | 20.0% | 32.6% | L14 Days | |||
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 26.9% | 13.6% | 3.6% | 2016 | 37.6% | 22.6% | 19.4% | Home | 29.0% | 18.3% | 2.0% | L14 Days | 42.4% | 27.3% | 33.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.6% | -0.3% | 2016 | 21.9% | 6.8% | -4.6% | Road | 22.8% | 8.3% | -0.7% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.3% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 2016 | 30.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% | Home | 31.8% | 11.4% | 12.9% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 26.7% | 11.4% | 7.7% | 2016 | 28.5% | 12.0% | 9.2% | Home | 27.7% | 12.3% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 33.3% | 5.1% |
| Jose Fernandez | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.1% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 2016 | 32.9% | 8.2% | 13.5% | Road | 33.1% | 8.9% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 2016 | 28.4% | 10.5% | 9.2% | Road | 20.7% | 9.3% | -0.3% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 11.8% | 5.3% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 30.8% | 9.8% | 17.0% | 2016 | 35.4% | 7.3% | 25.7% | Road | 32.5% | 4.7% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 36.0% | 9.1% | 24.0% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.2% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 2016 | 31.8% | 9.8% | 13.2% | Home | 34.0% | 18.5% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | L2 Years | 30.9% | 11.7% | 14.3% | 2016 | 32.1% | 14.1% | 15.8% | Home | 33.9% | 13.0% | 17.8% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 11.8% | 10.8% |
| Matt Wisler | Braves | L2 Years | 32.1% | 10.1% | 14.2% | 2016 | 38.6% | 9.5% | 19.5% | Home | 32.3% | 6.6% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 43.2% | 23.1% | 32.4% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 33.1% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 2016 | 35.0% | 17.5% | 17.1% | Road | 30.8% | 9.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 9.5% | 5.6% |
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.5% | 10.9% | 5.5% | 2016 | 21.9% | 16.4% | -2.1% | Road | 26.5% | 17.9% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | -3.6% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.0% | 9.8% | 11.4% | 2016 | 36.2% | 10.3% | 19.0% | Road | 29.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 36.2% | 4.8% | 22.4% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 2016 | 28.5% | 9.7% | 9.3% | Home | 32.5% | 23.1% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 33.9% | 0.0% | 15.3% |
| Wily Peralta | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.1% | 13.9% | 11.0% | 2016 | 35.8% | 17.2% | 20.9% | Home | 35.0% | 17.6% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 12.5% | 18.4% |
| Zachary Godley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.2% | 13.3% | 16.7% | 2016 | Home | 48.3% | 0.0% | 41.4% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Home | 29.5% | 10.1% | 9.5% | RH | 28.9% | 10.2% | 8.3% | L7Days | 31.9% | 9.8% | 14.6% |
| Astros | Road | 33.7% | 15.0% | 16.1% | RH | 34.3% | 15.1% | 17.3% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.2% | 18.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.3% | 18.1% | 12.4% | RH | 32.1% | 16.3% | 14.5% | L7Days | 39.1% | 20.3% | 23.5% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.4% | 11.5% | 10.8% | RH | 29.5% | 9.8% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 8.5% | 14.5% |
| Reds | Home | 32.4% | 17.1% | 16.3% | RH | 32.5% | 14.0% | 14.8% | L7Days | 38.5% | 16.7% | 18.2% |
| Royals | Road | 27.7% | 9.4% | 8.7% | RH | 29.1% | 8.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.5% | 6.4% | 9.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.0% | 14.1% | 13.4% | LH | 32.1% | 10.4% | 14.7% | L7Days | 37.3% | 15.9% | 21.1% |
| Braves | Home | 27.0% | 5.2% | 7.7% | RH | 25.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | L7Days | 29.5% | 6.0% | 11.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 29.8% | 12.2% | 10.7% | LH | 28.6% | 12.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 29.0% | 13.3% | 14.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 32.3% | 10.8% | 16.4% | RH | 32.1% | 12.7% | 14.5% | L7Days | 27.2% | 15.9% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.7% | 16.9% | 19.3% | RH | 33.2% | 13.0% | 14.6% | L7Days | 38.0% | 17.1% | 22.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 26.2% | 14.1% | 4.7% | RH | 25.1% | 13.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 31.3% | 16.1% | 9.0% |
| Brewers | Home | 35.3% | 14.2% | 17.7% | RH | 32.4% | 14.5% | 12.5% | L7Days | 30.7% | 8.9% | 6.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 31.7% | 12.5% | 11.3% | RH | 32.1% | 13.2% | 14.2% | L7Days | 26.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% |
| Indians | Road | 30.7% | 11.1% | 12.3% | RH | 31.1% | 13.2% | 14.6% | L7Days | 29.2% | 13.5% | 12.8% |
| Cubs | Road | 32.4% | 14.0% | 14.2% | RH | 31.3% | 12.5% | 12.1% | L7Days | 31.3% | 13.6% | 11.3% |
| Rays | Home | 33.9% | 13.1% | 13.4% | RH | 34.1% | 15.4% | 13.5% | L7Days | 35.8% | 21.3% | 16.6% |
| Giants | Home | 26.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | LH | 27.5% | 9.3% | 3.6% | L7Days | 33.9% | 11.6% | 18.2% |
| Angels | Home | 28.8% | 11.7% | 9.8% | RH | 30.5% | 9.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 35.2% | 11.3% | 17.1% |
| Padres | Road | 33.6% | 14.5% | 16.6% | RH | 31.4% | 11.5% | 14.0% | L7Days | 32.5% | 22.7% | 14.3% |
| Mets | Road | 34.5% | 16.1% | 20.9% | RH | 33.6% | 15.3% | 16.3% | L7Days | 30.5% | 7.8% | 16.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.6% | 10.3% | 9.3% | RH | 29.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 35.3% | 5.2% | 22.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 20.7% | 8.8% | 2.35 | 21.6% | 8.8% | 2.45 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 27.2% | 11.0% | 2.47 | 25.3% | 11.0% | 2.30 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 16.6% | 7.7% | 2.16 | 15.5% | 6.3% | 2.46 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 21.4% | 10.2% | 2.10 | 22.8% | 8.3% | 2.75 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | ||||||
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 20.8% | 9.1% | 2.29 | 17.9% | 10.8% | 1.66 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 21.4% | 10.2% | 2.10 | 16.5% | 9.7% | 1.70 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 28.0% | 11.4% | 2.46 | 32.8% | 12.3% | 2.67 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 34.7% | 14.3% | 2.43 | 34.7% | 14.3% | 2.43 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 20.9% | 9.9% | 2.11 | 18.3% | 8.8% | 2.08 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 37.7% | 15.2% | 2.48 | 41.9% | 16.3% | 2.57 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 26.7% | 12.0% | 2.23 | 30.3% | 14.5% | 2.09 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 16.9% | 8.6% | 1.97 | 13.0% | 6.3% | 2.06 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 19.0% | 11.1% | 1.71 | 15.4% | 8.3% | 1.86 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 22.5% | 13.6% | 1.65 | 27.0% | 16.1% | 1.68 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 17.9% | 7.7% | 2.32 | 21.5% | 8.4% | 2.56 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 16.6% | 9.1% | 1.82 | 14.8% | 10.7% | 1.38 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 24.5% | 10.7% | 2.29 | 28.1% | 11.6% | 2.42 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 22.2% | 9.8% | 2.27 | 20.4% | 9.1% | 2.24 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 15.7% | 7.2% | 2.18 | 14.3% | 5.6% | 2.55 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 13.2% | 6.4% | 2.06 | 13.7% | 5.9% | 2.32 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI |
Matt Shoemaker should actually be striking out more batters with his current SwStr%. His 16.1 SwStr% matches Fernandez over the last month with a K% 15 points lower. While it’s more likely his SwStr% regresses than he ends up with a 30 K%, this is still some really strong stuff.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 3.76 | 4 | 0.24 | 3.9 | 0.14 | 3.8 | 0.04 | 5.28 | 3.79 | -1.49 | 3.66 | -1.62 | 3.71 | -1.57 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 4.73 | 3.77 | -0.96 | 3.57 | -1.16 | 4.62 | -0.11 | 5.29 | 4.05 | -1.24 | 4.01 | -1.28 | 5.01 | -0.28 |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 3.2 | 4.57 | 1.37 | 4.66 | 1.46 | 4.38 | 1.18 | 3.19 | 4.53 | 1.34 | 4.44 | 1.25 | 3.23 | 0.04 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.34 | 4.47 | 1.13 | 4.61 | 1.27 | 4.44 | 1.1 | 3.19 | 4.18 | 0.99 | 4.24 | 1.05 | 3.87 | 0.68 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | ||||||||||||||
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 6.94 | 4.66 | -2.28 | 4.88 | -2.06 | 8.36 | 1.42 | 6.75 | 4.93 | -1.82 | 4.93 | -1.82 | 8.83 | 2.08 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 5.25 | 4.77 | -0.48 | 4.53 | -0.72 | 5.66 | 0.41 | 7.43 | 5.62 | -1.81 | 5.28 | -2.15 | 7.1 | -0.33 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 1.8 | 3.15 | 1.35 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 2.49 | 0.69 | 2.81 | 2.66 | -0.15 | 2.43 | -0.38 | 1.97 | -0.84 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.72 | 2.16 | -1.56 | 1.24 | -2.48 | 4.27 | 0.55 | 3.72 | 2.18 | -1.54 | 1.24 | -2.48 | 4.27 | 0.55 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.33 | 3.78 | 0.45 | 3.62 | 0.29 | 3.56 | 0.23 | 3.58 | 4.01 | 0.43 | 3.91 | 0.33 | 4.11 | 0.53 |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 2.29 | 2.55 | 0.26 | 2.34 | 0.05 | 1.96 | -0.33 | 0.79 | 1.73 | 0.94 | 1.66 | 0.87 | 1.28 | 0.49 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.97 | 3.57 | -0.4 | 3.88 | -0.09 | 3.57 | -0.4 | 2.39 | 3.02 | 0.63 | 3.29 | 0.9 | 2.6 | 0.21 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 3.22 | 4.61 | 1.39 | 4.77 | 1.55 | 4.01 | 0.79 | 6 | 5.26 | -0.74 | 5.7 | -0.3 | 4.4 | -1.6 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 2.76 | 3.74 | 0.98 | 3.5 | 0.74 | 3.23 | 0.47 | 2.25 | 4.42 | 2.17 | 3.85 | 1.6 | 3.03 | 0.78 |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 5.4 | 3.69 | -1.71 | 3.55 | -1.85 | 3.76 | -1.64 | 3.43 | 2.85 | -0.58 | 2.74 | -0.69 | 2.16 | -1.27 |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 3.98 | 4.53 | 0.55 | 4.76 | 0.78 | 4.23 | 0.25 | 4.94 | 4.07 | -0.87 | 4.08 | -0.86 | 3.87 | -1.07 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 5 | 4.13 | -0.87 | 3.89 | -1.11 | 4.49 | -0.51 | 5.54 | 4.48 | -1.06 | 4.62 | -0.92 | 4.24 | -1.3 |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.46 | 3.83 | -0.63 | 4.07 | -0.39 | 4.61 | 0.15 | 3.16 | 3.56 | 0.4 | 3.57 | 0.41 | 3.42 | 0.26 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 3.88 | 3.98 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 0.22 | 3.82 | -0.06 | 3.9 | 4.12 | 0.22 | 4.22 | 0.32 | 3.72 | -0.18 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 2.79 | 4.29 | 1.5 | 4.14 | 1.35 | 3.84 | 1.05 | 2.41 | 4.39 | 1.98 | 4.22 | 1.81 | 3.54 | 1.13 |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 6.79 | 5.01 | -1.78 | 4.86 | -1.93 | 5.44 | -1.35 | 6.84 | 5.02 | -1.82 | 4.72 | -2.12 | 5.89 | -0.95 |
| Zachary Godley | ARI |
Matt Shoemaker has a 27.3 LD% that’s well above his career rate, so his BABIP stands a decent chance of normalizing to his career rate, which matches his defense, although the rest of his indicators have been much stronger this year. Nearly one third of his career infield flies have come this season and he has a career low Z-Contact%, so it might end up even better than expected. The 14.1 HR/FB is in line with last season, but that seems to be improving too. As for his 65.3 LOB%, it was 54.4% one month ago, after his first five starts. I’m completely buying estimators over ERA here even if you want to be cautious and consider his FIP most strongly.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.287 | 0.254 | -0.033 | 0.176 | 3.8% | 87.4% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.296 | 0.324 | 0.028 | 0.211 | 9.2% | 85.4% |
| Colby Lewis | TEX | 0.283 | 0.264 | -0.019 | 0.208 | 7.9% | 89.5% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.291 | 0.223 | -0.068 | 0.21 | 7.0% | 84.8% |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.309 | |||||
| Erik Johnson | CHW | 0.295 | 0.290 | -0.005 | 0.139 | 6.7% | 86.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.291 | 0.302 | 0.011 | 0.179 | 3.8% | 88.8% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.250 | 0.249 | -0.001 | 0.2 | 4.5% | 85.6% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.284 | 0.444 | 0.16 | 0.31 | 0.0% | 81.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.294 | 0.283 | -0.011 | 0.206 | 9.3% | 87.0% |
| Jose Fernandez | FLA | 0.310 | 0.331 | 0.021 | 0.273 | 10.2% | 79.2% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.302 | 0.263 | -0.039 | 0.2 | 14.7% | 83.0% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.304 | 0.300 | -0.004 | 0.2 | 2.4% | 90.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.300 | 0.252 | -0.048 | 0.216 | 13.1% | 85.1% |
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.298 | 0.337 | 0.039 | 0.273 | 15.6% | 84.4% |
| Matt Wisler | ATL | 0.288 | 0.246 | -0.042 | 0.193 | 6.3% | 91.2% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.313 | 0.316 | 0.003 | 0.287 | 9.5% | 84.8% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.267 | 0.272 | 0.005 | 0.197 | 12.3% | 81.7% |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.279 | 0.292 | 0.013 | 0.186 | 6.9% | 84.1% |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.310 | 0.259 | -0.051 | 0.166 | 4.8% | 90.1% |
| Wily Peralta | MIL | 0.297 | 0.387 | 0.09 | 0.233 | 6.9% | 94.4% |
| Zachary Godley | ARI | 0.310 |
Carlos Martinez has a BABIP 64 points lower than last year and I can’t figure out why it hasn’t affected his ERA much or how he’s doing it. His 54.5 GB% is exactly the same as last year. His Z-Contact is the same and he’s induced just two popups. His LD rate is just 2.5 points below last year.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This week, we had our first $3K price gap among the two major sites and tonight it gets even larger. Francisco Liriano costs the same as Justin Verlander on FanDuel (approximately $9K), but Verlander doubles him up exactly on FanDuel. The way Liriano’s been pitching, it seems DraftKings got this one right.
There are really only three pitchers I’d strongly consider and would rank them the same on either site. I might have 10-20% exposure to a couple of others if playing 10 lineups or more, but these three are pretty far ahead of the pack when taking cost into account and they’re well spread out to where I’m comfortable putting one in each tier. So, while there’ll be a Tier Four, realize that I feel there’s a sizeable drop there.
Value Tier One
Matt Shoemaker (2) seems to be the one pitcher DraftKings hasn’t run through the roof. He still costs less than $8K on either site with FanDuel remaining cool all along. They obviously knew this would happen when I was mocking their pricing algorithm. I’m not going to sit here and say he has the same upside as Jose Fernandez, but his SwStr% over the last month his the same and he costs $4 to $6K less.
Value Tier Two
James Paxton (3) has allowed a lot of runs, though he hasn’t been officially charged with many. Half of his fly balls have left the yard, though the contact hasn’t been that bad (30.0 Hard%). His velocity has increased over two miles per hour and he’s struck out over one third of the batters he’s faced. He still costs less than $7.5K in a favorable spot.
Value Tier Three
Jose Fernandez (1) has struck out over 40% of the batters he’s faced over the last month and is likely to go on another strikeout binge tonight, though it’s difficult to ever project a pitcher for double digit strikeouts. A tough park and hard contact more than the average pitcher the few times batters do make contact, along with a Kershaw-ian price tag are minor concerns. He is, by far, tonight’s top overall pitcher.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Carlos Martinez seems fairly accurately priced in this spot, though he may actually be the next best arm available for the price on FanDuel after the above three. While his .254 BABIP is perplexing, his recent strikeout and swinging strike surge is encouraging. It’s not a great spot though.
Scott Kazmir is a difficult pitcher to put faith in at a high price with all of the HRs and three times walking at least four in a start (though just a total of nine in his other nine starts). Things could line up for him well in a decent spot tonight though.
Jeff Samardjiza also feels accurately priced. He’s been a bit better than average by peripherals and a few runs better than that by ERA. He’s one of the highest priced pitchers tonight due to a great park and strong matchup.
Francisco Liriano could serve as a massive risk punt play on DraftKings as a way to both use Fernandez and be a bit contrarian, although I can see several casuals doing that on name value alone.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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