Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 28th
You have to take my word for it that I wanted to display all of Saturday’s pitchers, but then focus write ups on only the night games, but MLB.com stalled on a couple of afternoon probables, who are still not posted at 10:30 PM EST on Friday night, so we’ll go with just the night games tonight. Happy Memorial Day weekend to everyone and we’ll try again to get all the pitchers listed for the holiday slate Monday even if we again only focus on the night slate.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -9.5 | 4.02 | 6.52 | 1.65 | 1.02 | 4.35 | 4.42 | WAS | 87 | 87 | 83 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 0.3 | 4.14 | 5.35 | 2.12 | 1.07 | 3.92 | 2.2 | ARI | 96 | 98 | 91 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 4.8 | 3.21 | 6.83 | 3.09 | 0.92 | 3.57 | 3.76 | ANA | 101 | 89 | 114 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 6.3 | 3.64 | 5.81 | 1.7 | 1.02 | 3.38 | 2.88 | STL | 116 | 95 | 86 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 4.7 | 4.6 | 6.07 | 0.69 | 0.92 | 4.27 | 4.82 | HOU | 94 | 97 | 53 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 3.2 | 3.89 | 4.62 | 1.31 | 1.07 | 4.19 | 3.67 | TEX | 99 | 89 | 105 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 2.9 | 3.79 | 5.78 | 1.09 | 0.87 | 3.35 | 3.35 | NYM | 96 | 105 | 105 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | -4.8 | 2.73 | 6.37 | 1.57 | 0.87 | 2.4 | 1.14 | LOS | 94 | 89 | 68 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | -3.4 | 3.86 | 6.25 | 0.93 | 0.9 | 4.42 | 6.64 | SEA | 103 | 116 | 122 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -6.5 | 3.95 | 6.07 | 1.64 | 0.9 | 3.59 | 5.39 | MIN | 85 | 60 | 105 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 13.3 | 2.77 | 6.38 | 0.96 | 1.07 | PIT | 115 | 118 | 143 | ||
| Zack Greinke | ARI | -7.1 | 3.19 | 6.74 | 1.59 | 1.07 | 3.38 | 2.88 | SDG | 86 | 69 | 76 |
Cesar Vargas has been kind of good. He walked three with three or fewer strikeouts in three of his first four, but has struck out 14 of his last 50 batters with just one walk in 12 innings (three HRs) over his last two starts. When he’s not had control issues, he’s had HR issues, but he’s missing bats at a league average rate, which is more than most people probably expected and he’s keeping the ball on the ground (55.2%). This is not a great spot for him, but mostly due to a dangerous park. Arizona is full of RH bats, who have been mediocre vs RHP, but have an 18.9 Hard-Soft% and 16.7 HR/FB at home.
Dallas Keuchel continues to have his issues, but he did strike out six with just a single walk in his last start with seven of his 10 base runners scoring in his last start despite a 65.0 GB%. His GB rate has been above 60% in three of his last four starts in fact with his hard hit rate above 30% just once. He hasn’t been nearly as good as last year, but it seems that there’s some misfortune at play here as well. The Angels would seem like a decent spot for from a batted ball standpoint at least. They have a very low strikeout rate (16.4%), but have just a 24.9 Hard% and 2.5 Hard-Soft% vs LHP.
Gio Gonzalez has allowed four HRs over his last two starts to the Mets. He’s allowed five over his last four starts. He allowed 46 over his first 127 starts as a National. His 10.7 HR/FB is now his highest mark since 2009. His other numbers remain in line with career rates except for the lowest walk rate of his career (5.7%) by over three points, while his hard hit rate (34.5%) is also the highest of his career by nearly the same amount. This might explain the HRs. The Cardinals have a 9.9 BB% against LHP and have flashed some power on the road (15.2 HR/FB), but are otherwise a neutral matchup here.
Kenta Maeda allowed two HRs to Noah Syndergaard last time these two matched up. He’s allowed exactly four runs in four of his last five starts after allowing a total of one through his first four. Something in the middle is usually the answer. He continues to miss bats at an impressive rate, while his walk rate has become more average and he has an impressive 4.9 Hard-Soft% with a 1.07 GB/FB. The Mets absolutely have some LH pop (33.9 Hard%, 16.6 HR/FB) and have a 27.3 HR/FB over the last week, but do strike out 23.4% of the time vs RHP. While the park plays more neutral towards power, it’s one of the more negative run environments overall in baseball.
Noah Syndergaard might be in line for a Cy Young in a league without Kershaw. He has the 4th best ERA in the majors (and NL), but the 2nd best FIP, xFIP, and SIERA behind guess who? He’s 3rd in both K% and SwStr% with the recently surging Fernandez bumping ahead of him. He’s a spectacle to watch each time out, striking out 21 of his last 51 batters without allowing an earned run in 14 innings through his last two starts. He also has the 2nd best park adjusted matchup tonight against an offense that has a 15.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, but just a 9.0 HR/FB on the road.
Zack Greinke has flourished on the road, while struggling at home, though pitching better in two of his last three starts in Arizona. He’s gone at least six innings in every start since his first and pitched into the 7th in six of his last eight with at least seven strikeouts in four of five. If there were going to be a spot where you like him at home, the Padres would be it with the 2nd worst wRC+ vs RHP (17.8 K-BB%). They’re not the top matchup in such an offensively favorable environment, but not too far off either.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Wade Miley has a double digit SwStr%, but not much else has gone right for him this season. He has the top matchup tonight against the new worst offense in baseball vs LHP (23.5 K%, 5.2 HR/FB, 24.1 Hard%), but costs quite a bit for a guy who really hasn’t done anything this season (over $9K on DraftKings).
Juan Nicasio has a .366 career wOBA vs LHBs and it’s been above .400 each of the last two seasons. While they all haven’t been particularly potent, the Rangers have many of those.
Jered Weaver is coming off his best start of the year against Baltimore and the Houston offense has disappointed this season, but he’s not worth more than $7K.
Adam Wainwright broke a streak of eight straight games with at least three runs allowed two starts back, so he decided to start another one in his last outing, which was also the first time he’d walked more than since his 2nd start.
Yu Darvish hasn’t thrown a major league pitch in over 20 months and will be held to 90 pitches in a near horror of a return matchup. He’s priced nearly as if he hasn’t missed a start.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.3% | 5.7% | Road | 15.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 16.1% | 7.1% |
| Cesar Vargas | Padres | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.2% | Road | 19.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 2.0% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.5% | 6.6% | Road | 18.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.1% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 22.9% | 8.3% | Home | 22.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 25.3% | 4.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.0% | Home | 19.4% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.0% | 10.0% | Road | 23.2% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 22.9% | 7.1% | Road | 26.7% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 7.7% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 29.0% | 4.8% | Home | 30.0% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 0.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 17.5% | 2.4% | Road | 13.7% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 2.1% | 2.1% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.8% | Home | 19.5% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 8.0% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.3% | 8.5% | Home | L14 Days | ||||
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 23.5% | 4.8% | Home | 22.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 1.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 18.9% | 9.9% | RH | 20.3% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 7.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 22.1% | 7.2% | RH | 20.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 12.6% | 6.9% |
| Angels | Home | 15.9% | 8.8% | LH | 16.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 14.1% | 7.0% |
| Cardinals | Road | 19.4% | 9.5% | LH | 20.6% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.2% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Road | 26.0% | 8.6% | RH | 25.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 30.7% | 6.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 17.6% | 8.2% | RH | 18.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 18.1% | 5.3% |
| Mets | Home | 24.2% | 10.0% | RH | 23.4% | 9.0% | L7Days | 29.0% | 8.4% |
| Dodgers | Road | 20.8% | 9.4% | RH | 20.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.8% | 8.9% | RH | 19.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.1% | 6.3% |
| Twins | Road | 27.3% | 8.1% | LH | 23.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.7% | 9.0% | RH | 18.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.8% | 8.3% |
| Padres | Road | 25.7% | 6.8% | RH | 24.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.1% | 8.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 26.2% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 2016 | 29.4% | 8.1% | 12.7% | Road | 30.8% | 11.9% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Cesar Vargas | Padres | L2 Years | 30.0% | 16.0% | 9.0% | 2016 | 30.0% | 16.0% | 9.0% | Road | 38.0% | 16.7% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 37.1% | 33.3% | 5.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 22.5% | 12.3% | -1.1% | 2016 | 30.0% | 14.6% | 8.7% | Road | 27.2% | 16.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 2016 | 34.6% | 10.7% | 15.2% | Home | 29.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 30.8% | 15.4% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 28.9% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 2016 | 35.5% | 13.1% | 22.9% | Home | 29.1% | 9.8% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 14.3% | 23.9% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.2% | 12.8% | 3.8% | 2016 | 18.3% | 14.3% | -6.7% | Road | 23.3% | 8.1% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 20.0% | 6.2% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.3% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2016 | 24.3% | 8.9% | 4.9% | Road | 25.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 4.0% |
| Noah Syndergaard | Mets | L2 Years | 24.9% | 13.0% | 4.5% | 2016 | 25.9% | 8.3% | 4.1% | Home | 22.4% | 12.4% | -3.4% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 0.0% | -10.0% |
| Phil Hughes | Twins | L2 Years | 30.9% | 10.8% | 14.5% | 2016 | 38.5% | 13.4% | 23.7% | Road | 30.4% | 13.6% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 45.7% | 9.5% | 37.0% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 2016 | 33.0% | 14.3% | 13.9% | Home | 27.2% | 10.9% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 5.6% | 36.8% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 35.5% | 12.0% | 16.8% | 2016 | Home | L14 Days | |||||||||
| Zack Greinke | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 26.6% | 9.5% | 5.7% | 2016 | 27.6% | 13.3% | 8.9% | Home | 27.9% | 10.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 24.4% | 15.4% | 14.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 31.0% | 12.0% | 12.1% | RH | 32.6% | 12.0% | 15.1% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.6% | 12.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 36.1% | 16.7% | 18.9% | RH | 32.4% | 12.6% | 13.6% | L7Days | 30.4% | 11.9% | 12.7% |
| Angels | Home | 28.4% | 11.4% | 9.6% | LH | 24.9% | 9.7% | 2.5% | L7Days | 30.2% | 5.8% | 12.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 30.4% | 15.2% | 11.7% | LH | 31.5% | 12.4% | 14.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 19.0% | 12.1% |
| Astros | Road | 31.1% | 16.5% | 12.5% | RH | 34.5% | 15.8% | 17.4% | L7Days | 39.7% | 21.1% | 25.7% |
| Rangers | Home | 26.1% | 10.6% | 3.9% | RH | 27.9% | 10.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.9% | 12.5% |
| Mets | Home | 31.9% | 13.6% | 7.9% | RH | 33.9% | 16.6% | 16.4% | L7Days | 35.3% | 27.3% | 15.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 33.0% | 9.0% | 18.2% | RH | 32.7% | 10.2% | 15.9% | L7Days | 34.1% | 7.5% | 16.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 27.9% | 14.7% | 7.8% | RH | 30.4% | 14.9% | 12.6% | L7Days | 32.2% | 17.3% | 12.7% |
| Twins | Road | 29.6% | 12.5% | 10.7% | LH | 24.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | L7Days | 28.9% | 15.6% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.7% | 13.3% | 10.5% | RH | 28.4% | 10.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 36.2% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| Padres | Road | 34.3% | 14.4% | 17.6% | RH | 30.7% | 9.4% | 13.7% | L7Days | 30.9% | 9.8% | 14.3% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 13.6% | 6.9% | 1.97 | 16.9% | 6.7% | 2.52 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 19.2% | 9.2% | 2.09 | 20.0% | 9.4% | 2.13 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 19.1% | 9.8% | 1.95 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 2.40 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 20.7% | 8.9% | 2.33 | 17.8% | 7.7% | 2.31 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 14.0% | 9.6% | 1.46 | 16.3% | 11.3% | 1.44 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 23.8% | 8.0% | 2.98 | 22.9% | 10.2% | 2.25 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 22.9% | 13.0% | 1.76 | 21.9% | 13.9% | 1.58 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 32.6% | 14.9% | 2.19 | 29.7% | 13.6% | 2.18 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 13.2% | 6.0% | 2.20 | 7.8% | 4.8% | 1.63 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 17.9% | 10.1% | 1.77 | 17.1% | 9.8% | 1.74 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | ||||||
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 21.2% | 10.8% | 1.96 | 24.8% | 11.0% | 2.25 |
Kenta Maeda has a season low SwStr of 9.6%. He’s been above 11.5% in seven of his last eight.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 5.77 | 4.79 | -0.98 | 4.55 | -1.22 | 3.99 | -1.78 | 4.84 | 4.05 | -0.79 | 3.63 | -1.21 | 3.4 | -1.44 |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 3.34 | 4.13 | 0.79 | 3.93 | 0.59 | 4.32 | 0.98 | 3.62 | 3.96 | 0.34 | 3.8 | 0.18 | 3.96 | 0.34 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 5.92 | 4.01 | -1.91 | 3.72 | -2.2 | 3.93 | -1.99 | 7.58 | 4.06 | -3.52 | 3.92 | -3.66 | 4.94 | -2.64 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.87 | 3.79 | 0.92 | 3.82 | 0.95 | 3.63 | 0.76 | 3.67 | 4.08 | 0.41 | 4.13 | 0.46 | 4.37 | 0.7 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 5.33 | 4.97 | -0.36 | 5.19 | -0.14 | 5.4 | 0.07 | 6.52 | 4.39 | -2.13 | 4.44 | -2.08 | 5.29 | -1.23 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 4.46 | 3.95 | -0.51 | 3.89 | -0.57 | 4.17 | -0.29 | 4.43 | 3.65 | -0.78 | 3.54 | -0.89 | 3.8 | -0.63 |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 3.29 | 3.79 | 0.5 | 3.97 | 0.68 | 3.53 | 0.24 | 6.08 | 4.16 | -1.92 | 4.57 | -1.51 | 4.51 | -1.57 |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 1.94 | 2.16 | 0.22 | 2 | 0.06 | 1.71 | -0.23 | 2.14 | 2.41 | 0.27 | 2.26 | 0.12 | 2.43 | 0.29 |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 5.55 | 4.75 | -0.8 | 4.7 | -0.85 | 4.93 | -0.62 | 7.33 | 5.83 | -1.5 | 5.88 | -1.45 | 6.94 | -0.39 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 4.5 | 4.2 | -0.3 | 4.2 | -0.3 | 4.51 | 0.01 | 2.73 | 4.31 | 1.58 | 4.43 | 1.7 | 4.54 | 1.81 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | ||||||||||||||
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 4.59 | 3.55 | -1.04 | 3.36 | -1.23 | 3.5 | -1.09 | 3.18 | 3.13 | -0.05 | 2.77 | -0.41 | 2.85 | -0.33 |
Cesar Vargas has a .323 BABIP that may be a bit higher than expected, but we can’t really tell if it’s a candidate for regression yet. Four of his 25 balls have left the yard, which is also still a super small sample, but it’s the 85.3 LOB% that is most in question here and why the ERA distances itself from estimators.
Dallas Keuchel had some hard contact issues earlier, but his GB rate has increased and while not nearly as good as last season, the hard contact rate has dropped under 30% (just barely) now. Houston hasn’t been doing nearly as good a job on batted balls overall either. There should be some give there and in his 64.4 LOB% that would push him at least into league average territory.
Gio Gonzalez has a BABIP a little lower than his career rate and a LOB% and HR/FB a little higher, but nothing to quibble with. The real factor here is that four of his 21 runs have been unearned, which accounts for the gap.
Zack Greinke could really be broken down to home and road splits, but overall, his BABIP isn’t really much higher than what his defense allows, though nearly 30 points above his career mark. His 70.5 LOB% and 13.3 HR/FB are well off his career rates, but absurdly out of line for the average pitcher. Welcome to Arizona and the joys of being caught by Welington Castillo. A league average pitcher might be his fate at home, while still being an All Star on the road.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.291 | 0.337 | 0.046 | 0.279 | 6.5% | 93.8% |
| Cesar Vargas | SDG | 0.292 | 0.323 | 0.031 | 0.188 | 4.0% | 87.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.315 | 0.351 | 0.036 | 0.223 | 12.2% | 85.6% |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.276 | 0.277 | 0.001 | 0.159 | 14.3% | 87.8% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.293 | 0.326 | 0.033 | 0.247 | 15.5% | 82.4% |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.295 | 0.298 | 0.003 | 0.224 | 11.9% | 86.4% |
| Kenta Maeda | LOS | 0.266 | 0.259 | -0.007 | 0.17 | 16.1% | 80.1% |
| Noah Syndergaard | NYM | 0.310 | 0.326 | 0.016 | 0.188 | 5.6% | 83.6% |
| Phil Hughes | MIN | 0.324 | 0.288 | -0.036 | 0.222 | 9.0% | 88.8% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.273 | 0.287 | 0.014 | 0.206 | 7.9% | 86.5% |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.289 | |||||
| Zack Greinke | ARI | 0.318 | 0.328 | 0.01 | 0.226 | 11.7% | 92.6% |
h2. Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Six pitchers cost $8.8K or more on DraftKings tonight, while the other six cost $6.9K or less. Much like America in recent years, DraftKings cuts out the middle class. FanDuel is more evenly distributed with 10 of 12 residing between $6.4K and $8.7K. One clearly stands above the rest in both overall expectation and potential value.
Value Tier One
Noah Syndergaard (1) is the unquestioned chalk and top pitcher tonight. He’s the most expensive arm (by a long shot on DraftKings), but nobody else comes close to the overall upside an expected performance. You build your cash game lineups around this pitcher tonight.
Value Tier Two
Dallas Keuchel (4t) – Let’s be clear again. He is certainly not expected to be what he was last year at this point, but we’re not paying for that. We’re paying for about half of that and his batted ball profile has improved over the last few starts. We realized the perils of paying for a batted ball profile without a great strikeout expectation with Felix Hernandez last night and while that was a mistake, we’re talking about a much lower price, especially on DraftKings ($6.3K), on a slate half the size.
Value Tier Three
Kenta Maeda (3) is a quality pitcher with an impressive ability to miss bats. While he may not be one of the top pitchers in the league like he looked early on, he’s probably better than what we’ve seen lately with some suggested room for improvement in his recent K%. He faces a team with power, but a lineup that will strike out in a favorable park at cost slightly above average that he probably surpasses a little more often than not.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Cesar Vargas (6) has pitched well in his last two starts and comes at the 2nd lowest cost on either site. The issue is more with the run environment than anything else and while his control has improved, he’s had a bit of an early issue with long balls.
Gio Gonzalez (4t) is probably appropriately priced in this neutral matchup with the Cardinals. His control seems improved, but he seems to be countering that with harder contact.
Zack Greinke (2) – Even if we project him to be a something around league average at home, the Padres might make an average expectation before matchup into a pitcher worth $11K on a short slate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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