Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, July 21st
Remember yesterday when we had that horrible pitching slate where there was only one highly priced pitcher and we didn’t even want to use him because he was probably overpriced? Ah, the good old days. This slate is even worse. In fact, this is the new worst pitching slate of the year. I don’t even want to write this article. There’s not much good you can say about these pitchers. I don’t even want to admit I know baseball tonight.
But what are you talking about? Both the Braves and Phillies are playing. The Braves are in Coors and the Phillies are facing a pitcher with estimators above five over the last month.
Isn’t there anyone on the low end with upside? Maybe a young pitcher who may have begun to harness his talent? Yes, but he’s in Colorado too.
Oh, no, you’re going to throw Tyler Duffey at us again, aren’t you? No. Don’t worry, he’s facing the Red Sox in Boston, but it’s not like we have many much better options.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -6.7 | 4 | 6.48 | 1.68 | 0.97 | 3.71 | 3.5 | SDG | 87 | 80 | 99 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -5.2 | 4.12 | 5.75 | 1.43 | 0.97 | 4.79 | 3.76 | STL | 106 | 118 | 130 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.6 | 4.1 | 5.72 | 1.84 | 1.37 | 3.53 | 3.9 | ATL | 74 | 74 | 82 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | -0.9 | 3.82 | 5.9 | 1.93 | 0.95 | 3.54 | 4.98 | MIL | 84 | 94 | 85 |
| James Shields | CHW | 1.8 | 4.05 | 6.19 | 1.3 | 0.99 | 4.03 | 5.95 | DET | 95 | 102 | 68 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -3.8 | 3.98 | 6.15 | 1.13 | 1.02 | 3.64 | 5.15 | FLA | 101 | 95 | 62 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -5.6 | 4.55 | 5.61 | 1.43 | 0.95 | 4.97 | 5.46 | PIT | 113 | 98 | 49 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | -6.6 | 4.49 | 5.78 | 0.89 | 0.95 | 5.14 | 6.28 | OAK | 86 | 98 | 116 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.7 | 4.18 | 5.6 | 0.81 | 1.37 | 3.87 | 2.91 | COL | 102 | 93 | 59 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | -8.4 | 4.89 | 5.42 | 1.97 | 0.99 | 4.97 | 7.25 | CHW | 92 | 86 | 73 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -9.3 | 3.92 | 6.42 | 1.92 | 0.95 | 4.06 | 5.77 | TAM | 106 | 91 | 124 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.6 | 4.29 | 6.33 | 1.3 | 1.07 | 4.71 | 3.8 | MIN | 92 | 89 | 48 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.4 | 4.65 | 5.76 | 1.24 | 1.02 | 5.03 | 5.36 | PHI | 64 | 81 | 35 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | -5.5 | 3.95 | 5.76 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 3.55 | 4.43 | BOS | 122 | 119 | 106 |
Adam Wainwright has made himself relevant again and that’s much more than a lot of people, including myself, thought he would be at this point after the way he opened the season. He’s allowed one run over his last 23 innings, striking out 19 of 85 batters, walking just five without a HR. All of these starts were at home against mediocre or worse offenses. In fact, he’s been just about league average in every possible way at home except that he hasn’t allowed a single HR in 10 starts. There is some precedent for this as he has a 7.1 career HR/FB at home, but this was a better pitcher in a lower HR environment for the most part. We can’t expect this to continue forever. He’s in another strong spot at home against the Padres (25.4 K% on the road, 24.5 K% vs RHP, 26.5 K% last seven days). They have come out of the break with a 23.2 HR/FB though.
Chad Bettis hasn’t been terrible at home in his career according to his peripherals, despite his 6.37 ERA. If you take a little worse than league average and penalize for Colorado that’s what you have. Oh, I’m not arguing that he’s good or even going to be good here, but applying the same Coors boost to the terrible Atlanta offense may only take them to somewhere around neutral. He actually has a 13.5 K-BB% and 13.8 HR/FB at home since last season and those are perfectly league average numbers this season. The Braves are the worst offense in baseball vs RHP (7.9 HR/FB) and on the road (8.7 HR/FB).
Francisco LIriano has struck out just 16.1% of batters over the last month, but his SwStr% is consistent with his season rate. When you throw as many balls as he does, you don’t often get to strike three before ball four. He’s walking a league leading 13.6% of batters and is just two HRs away from a new high in a Pirate uniform as his hard hit rate is up 10 points from the previous two seasons. This season has been a disaster. The strange thing is that he isn’t even throwing fewer first strikes (he’s always been below average) or pitches in the zone. Batters just aren’t chasing anymore. Considering that the Brewers have a league leading 11.9 BB% vs LHP, this would seem like a disaster matchup and probably wouldn’t be on our radar on a good day. They don’t have as much power as you’d expect against LHP though and Pittsburgh suppressed RH power. These factors plus a 23.5 K% vs LHP (25.7 K% on the road) work in the pitcher’s favor.
Jerad Eickhoff has struck out just three in each of his last two starts, but generally pitches well at home (18.4 K-BB% career with a 9.1 HR/FB). The Marlins did homer twice against him in Philadelphia back in May, but have shown below average power on the road (9.8 HR/FB) and vs RHP (9.8 HR/FB) with just a 6.0 HR/FB since the break.
Mike Foltynewicz struck out 10 of 25 White Sox two starts back with a more average 10 of 51 in the two starts surrounding it, but is missing bats at a rate just above average overall this year. He’s allowed 11 HRs in his 10 starts, but seven of them were in two starts with three of those coming in not only his first start, but first inning this year against the Mets. He doesn’t walk batters, his 16.1 K-BB% is well above average and he’s managed contact well with what would be the sixth highest rate of weak contact in the league (23.2%) if he had enough innings to qualify. This would be our guy tonight if he weren’t pitching in Colorado. The Rockies are less than average offense that might not even qualify as tonight’s worst matchup with the massive park boost, but it’s still a very difficult spot. While the Rockies have a 14.7 HR/FB at home, they have just a 6.5 HR/FB since the break.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.299 BABIP – 71.9 LOB% – 13.4 HR/FB)
Steven Wright (.266 – 69.9% – 6.0) has allowed at least five ERs in five of his last six starts. Take a look at his ERA and estimators both above four over the last month as a result of his BABIP and HR rate normalizing. He’s struck out four or fewer in five of his last eight with a peak of seven. This is a difficult profile to pay more than $9K for in a tough park.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Sonny Gray has walked eight and struck out seven over his last two starts (55 batters). He has just an 8.4 K-BB% this season and 3.8% over the last month, though a 57.5 GB% with a 25.9 Hard%. The Rays (24.4 K% vs RHP) should help his strikeout rate, but not his contact rates. They have a 33.3 Hard% and 15.1 HR/FB on the road. You can discount their recent performance a bit after a trip to Coors though and maybe he’s not a much worse choice than our list below for $6.1K on DraftKings?
Tyler Duffey has a career 15.3 K-BB% in 75 innings with an ERA and estimators right around three and a half. If I can’t understand why Jerad Eickhoff is so much better at home, there’s no way I can explain this. Thankfully, or maybe unfortunately today, he’s facing the Red Sox tonight and we don’t have to think much about it. He’s alternated home and road starts last time out. At home, he’s struck out four of 60 batters. On the road, 17 of 51 and the opposition weren’t high strikeout offenses.
Tom Koehler has the Phillies, otherwise he’d probably land at the bottom of this list with Garza and Pelfrey. He’s walked just six over his last four starts, but has a total of eight strikeouts and has only even lasted five innings just once.
James Shields wasn’t going to keep allowing six runs or more per start, but since he’s allowed a total of six runs over his last four starts, he has just a 10.9 K% with a .195 BABIP (25.2 LD%, 8.9 Soft%) and 98.2 LOB%. He’s throwing fewer first strikes (53.4%), batters are chasing less (26.5%), and swinging more at strikes (70.3%).
Andrew Cashner struck out nine of 22 Giants in his last start, which can only be described as “baseball” after allowing more walks and HRs to the Dodgers than strikeouts in his previous start. His velocity was up in that start to an average of 95 mph, so perhaps it’s a health thing. It was also the only start this season that lasted more than a single batter where he didn’t walk anyone. He’s got a couple of seasons of being bad under his belt at this point and also one of tonight’s worst matchups against one of the best offenses vs RHP in baseball.
Matt Moore has not found it again. He did have one strong start against Boston to end June, but has just a 9.4 K% (2.3 K-BB%) in three July starts with a .224 BABIP and 81.7 LOB%. He also has just a 31.1 GB% (0.61 GB/FB), which actually might help him in Oakland, though the A’s have just an 18.1 K% at home and vs LHP.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.0% | 6.0% | Home | 17.7% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 5.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 19.5% | 7.7% | Road | 15.9% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 7.3% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.4% | 7.0% | Home | 19.2% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 7.3% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 24.7% | 10.8% | Home | 24.9% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 14.0% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 21.2% | 8.5% | Home | 23.1% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.3% | 6.3% | Home | 23.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.0% | 8.1% | Road | 14.2% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.4% | Road | 15.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 7.3% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.9% | Road | 22.9% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 3.9% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 11.3% | 7.4% | Road | 10.6% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 5.3% | 18.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.8% | Home | 17.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.2% | 8.4% | Home | 18.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 3.9% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 17.8% | 9.8% | Road | 15.2% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 9.8% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 19.9% | 6.6% | Road | 22.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 13.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 25.3% | 6.9% | RH | 24.5% | 6.9% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.4% | 8.8% | RH | 19.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.8% |
| Braves | Road | 20.4% | 6.9% | RH | 20.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.7% | 9.6% | LH | 23.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.9% | 7.5% | RH | 21.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 15.7% | 5.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.1% | 7.3% | RH | 19.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.8% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.9% | 9.3% | RH | 21.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.8% | 6.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 18.1% | 6.6% | LH | 18.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.9% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.6% | 9.1% | RH | 20.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.3% | 10.3% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 8.5% | RH | 21.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 5.4% |
| Rays | Road | 23.0% | 8.2% | RH | 24.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.8% | 11.1% |
| Twins | Road | 25.1% | 8.3% | RH | 21.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 25.8% | 6.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.1% | 6.6% | RH | 21.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 27.6% | 5.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.6% | 9.4% | RH | 18.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 7.6% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 2016 | 30.4% | 7.3% | 13.3% | Home | 28.0% | 0.0% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 0.0% | 12.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.9% | 13.4% | 2016 | 29.5% | 15.7% | 16.6% | Road | 26.9% | 13.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 30.8% | 23.1% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.1% | 13.3% | 16.2% | 2016 | 32.6% | 15.1% | 16.2% | Home | 33.6% | 13.8% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 41.0% | 18.2% | 25.6% |
| Francisco Liriano | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.4% | 12.5% | 3.8% | 2016 | 34.4% | 16.1% | 13.6% | Home | 29.4% | 15.5% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 0.0% | 15.2% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.6% | 14.5% | 14.3% | 2016 | 33.1% | 15.3% | 18.0% | Home | 31.8% | 19.1% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 11.1% | 18.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.7% | 11.0% | 2016 | 30.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% | Home | 27.9% | 9.1% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 7.7% | 5.0% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.7% | 13.3% | 16.0% | 2016 | 38.8% | 8.3% | 22.4% | Road | 30.2% | 9.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 23.1% | 29.7% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 32.3% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 2016 | 32.7% | 12.2% | 14.5% | Road | 32.4% | 11.4% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 7.7% | 10.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 30.0% | 14.2% | 9.1% | 2016 | 28.7% | 17.5% | 5.5% | Road | 35.6% | 21.0% | 16.3% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 0.0% | -3.0% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Tigers | L2 Years | 27.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 2016 | 30.8% | 14.0% | 10.5% | Road | 27.1% | 7.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 10.7% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.1% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 2016 | 32.7% | 15.7% | 16.7% | Home | 26.6% | 12.6% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 12.5% | 5.0% |
| Steven Wright | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 2016 | 27.2% | 6.0% | 2.8% | Home | 30.2% | 7.5% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 6.3% | -16.2% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.7% | 9.2% | 14.2% | 2016 | 26.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | Road | 30.6% | 11.0% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 16.1% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | L2 Years | 29.9% | 14.0% | 13.0% | 2016 | 31.9% | 17.9% | 14.2% | Road | 25.6% | 10.9% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Road | 33.0% | 14.9% | 15.9% | RH | 31.3% | 12.9% | 13.2% | L7Days | 32.6% | 23.4% | 17.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.6% | 13.6% | 16.1% | RH | 33.7% | 15.4% | 15.7% | L7Days | 36.2% | 21.5% | 17.4% |
| Braves | Road | 26.6% | 8.7% | 6.2% | RH | 26.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | L7Days | 28.7% | 10.4% | 11.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.0% | 12.3% | 8.9% | LH | 32.3% | 12.8% | 14.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 7.7% | 9.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 31.7% | 13.2% | 12.3% | RH | 32.0% | 14.0% | 14.5% | L7Days | 33.8% | 10.5% | 16.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.6% | 9.9% | 10.8% | RH | 29.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.0% | 11.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 30.3% | 12.0% | 10.3% | RH | 29.0% | 10.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 30.3% | 2.2% | 14.1% |
| Athletics | Home | 28.2% | 9.6% | 10.6% | LH | 28.9% | 14.5% | 10.3% | L7Days | 31.1% | 13.6% | 18.3% |
| Rockies | Home | 34.9% | 14.7% | 18.4% | RH | 31.9% | 13.6% | 14.4% | L7Days | 27.0% | 6.5% | 8.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.6% | 12.4% | 8.4% | RH | 28.8% | 11.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 30.2% | 10.0% | 13.8% |
| Rays | Road | 33.3% | 15.1% | 15.0% | RH | 32.6% | 14.0% | 12.8% | L7Days | 26.8% | 9.0% | 5.4% |
| Twins | Road | 30.5% | 14.6% | 11.3% | RH | 30.9% | 11.8% | 12.6% | L7Days | 26.7% | 11.5% | 4.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.8% | 10.7% | 0.3% | RH | 27.7% | 12.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.8% | -5.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.1% | 12.0% | 15.6% | RH | 34.6% | 13.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 37.7% | 23.5% | 16.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.15 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 18.4% | 8.4% | 2.19 | 21.7% | 10.2% | 2.13 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 17.5% | 6.8% | 2.57 | 25.4% | 11.1% | 2.29 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 17.6% | 9.0% | 1.96 | 19.7% | 11.9% | 1.66 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 20.4% | 10.6% | 1.92 | 16.1% | 10.5% | 1.53 |
| James Shields | CHW | 16.1% | 8.9% | 1.81 | 11.3% | 5.9% | 1.92 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.07 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 1.99 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 12.8% | 5.5% | 2.33 | 11.4% | 5.1% | 2.24 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 19.8% | 10.1% | 1.96 | 14.4% | 8.8% | 1.64 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 21.7% | 10.3% | 2.11 | 24.2% | 12.7% | 1.91 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 10.1% | 6.7% | 1.51 | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.80 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 17.3% | 7.7% | 2.25 | 16.0% | 7.0% | 2.29 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 19.6% | 10.9% | 1.80 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.85 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 17.6% | 8.7% | 2.02 | 12.8% | 7.9% | 1.62 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 18.6% | 8.0% | 2.33 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 2.10 |
Chad Bettis has equaled and improved his SwStr% in six straight starts, all in double digits. These haven’t been against quality offenses, but haven’t been against high strikeout offenses either. This is definitely something to watch.
Francisco Liriano had a couple of games with a SwStr below 8%, but has followed them up with two above 12%. Overall, his SwStr% is way down from his 13.0% career mark because batters aren’t chasing nearly as much, but he’s still in double digits.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.36 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.32 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.15 | 4.27 | 0.12 | 4.03 | -0.12 | 3.38 | -0.77 | 2.6 | 3.71 | 1.11 | 3.35 | 0.75 | 2.2 | -0.4 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 5.05 | 4.72 | -0.33 | 4.73 | -0.32 | 5.11 | 0.06 | 6.14 | 3.78 | -2.36 | 4.11 | -2.03 | 6.49 | 0.35 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.55 | 4.11 | -1.44 | 3.92 | -1.63 | 4.17 | -1.38 | 5.34 | 3.92 | -1.42 | 3.62 | -1.72 | 3.21 | -2.13 |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 5.11 | 4.96 | -0.15 | 4.8 | -0.31 | 5.18 | 0.07 | 5.33 | 5.38 | 0.05 | 5.3 | -0.03 | 3.78 | -1.55 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.1 | 5.05 | -0.05 | 4.86 | -0.24 | 5.2 | 0.1 | 2.43 | 5.58 | 3.15 | 5.19 | 2.76 | 4.8 | 2.37 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.76 | 4.15 | 0.39 | 4.17 | 0.41 | 3.98 | 0.22 | 4.5 | 4.53 | 0.03 | 4.69 | 0.19 | 4.15 | -0.35 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 5.74 | 5 | -0.74 | 5.1 | -0.64 | 4.43 | -1.31 | 8.02 | 5.45 | -2.57 | 5.61 | -2.41 | 5.4 | -2.62 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 4.33 | 4.39 | 0.06 | 4.71 | 0.38 | 4.59 | 0.26 | 2.94 | 5.44 | 2.5 | 5.83 | 2.89 | 4.4 | 1.46 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.7 | 3.95 | 0.25 | 4.1 | 0.4 | 4.77 | 1.07 | 3.97 | 3.67 | -0.3 | 3.99 | 0.02 | 4.87 | 0.9 |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 4.95 | 5.36 | 0.41 | 5.16 | 0.21 | 5.3 | 0.35 | 5.34 | 5.18 | -0.16 | 5.02 | -0.32 | 5.1 | -0.24 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 5.12 | 4.48 | -0.64 | 4.29 | -0.83 | 4.61 | -0.51 | 4.2 | 4.39 | 0.19 | 4.17 | -0.03 | 3.82 | -0.38 |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 2.78 | 4.45 | 1.67 | 4.43 | 1.65 | 3.57 | 0.79 | 4.4 | 4.43 | 0.03 | 4.65 | 0.25 | 4.13 | -0.27 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.68 | 5.14 | 0.46 | 5 | 0.32 | 4.32 | -0.36 | 7.36 | 5.31 | -2.05 | 5.37 | -1.99 | 5.6 | -1.76 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 5.23 | 4.03 | -1.2 | 3.91 | -1.32 | 4.51 | -0.72 | 4.6 | 4.06 | -0.54 | 4.06 | -0.54 | 5.3 | 0.7 |
Chad Bettis has a .387 BABIP at home in a park that incites high BABIPs, but not that high, even with a 25.0 LD%. That’s led to a 59.4 LOB%. Don’t expect normalcy, but maybe better.
Mike Foltynewicz has a 17.5 HR/FB, but as mentioned, seven of his 11 HRs came in two starts with three in his first inning pitched this year. That doesn’t absolve him, especially in Colorado, but I’m not buying into the FIP with his strong contact rates. His 84.0 LOB% should decline though.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .299 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.1 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.290 | 0.310 | 0.02 | 0.252 | 9.2% | 93.1% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.303 | 0.300 | -0.003 | 0.192 | 7.1% | 91.1% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.320 | 0.342 | 0.022 | 0.226 | 5.4% | 86.8% |
| Francisco Liriano | PIT | 0.302 | 0.296 | -0.006 | 0.179 | 4.6% | 88.2% |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.299 | 0.302 | 0.003 | 0.22 | 6.8% | 88.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.302 | 0.295 | -0.007 | 0.215 | 14.8% | 88.6% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.304 | 0.354 | 0.05 | 0.162 | 2.8% | 94.9% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.305 | 0.289 | -0.016 | 0.186 | 9.0% | 83.9% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.293 | 0.275 | -0.018 | 0.21 | 12.7% | 85.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | DET | 0.310 | 0.345 | 0.035 | 0.212 | 15.1% | 89.8% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.308 | 0.307 | -0.001 | 0.188 | 8.4% | 92.7% |
| Steven Wright | BOS | 0.299 | 0.266 | -0.033 | 0.194 | 7.8% | 77.5% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.298 | 0.327 | 0.029 | 0.255 | 12.6% | 88.9% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.316 | 0.313 | -0.003 | 0.222 | 10.3% | 88.7% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We are not using the traditional tiers today because I can’t, in good conscience, place any of these pitchers into those because I might not use a single one on a normal day. I mean 40% of our list below comes from Colorado. It’s just one group of mostly interchangeable pitchers (on a point per dollar expectation), but I’m not calling them Tier One.
If You Must
Francisco Liriano (2) might have another one of those games where he walks five, but strikes out 10. He has disaster potential for sure, but his 20.4 K% is the highest strikeout rate tonight of any pitcher not at Coors. He has the highest strikeout upside at a lower than average cost, especially on DraftKings.
Chad Bettis hasn’t been that bad if you look beneath his 5.55 ERA this year. While you wouldn’t expect him to be good at home, Atlanta is one of the best matchups you can have in that park and you’d probably rather face Atlanta in Coors than the Red Sox in Boston. He doesn’t even need to have that good an outing to overcome that price. I don’t expect many, if any pitchers to beat their price tags today.
Mike Foltynewicz is starting to find his way. While his one standout start against the White Sox might skew things positively and we’d rather not touch him at Coors tonight, we might not have much of a choice. The park merely makes a below average offense an above average one this year. They’re really not the monstrous juggernaut of years past. The low cost gives him some wiggle room. What I’m really interested for is his next start, which may look even better if this one is mediocre or worse, further dropping his price. This would probably be our guy today in a more reasonable spot.
Adam Wainwright (1) – Realistically, there’s nothing wrong with the pitcher here and he’s in a good spot. He’s been a league average pitcher, which is more than I thought he could still be a couple of months ago. The Padres aren’t the automatic outs they once were vs RHP, but still aren’t good and will strike out. It’s really the cost that makes this uncomfortable. He’s had a strong few starts, but we can’t expect him to never allow a HR at home. If you’re in the market for a Win though (and that’s not an advanced stat), he may be your best bet.
Jerad Eickhoff (3) has struck out just six of his last 51 batters, but generally excels at home. There’s not a reason you can think of for his success in that park other than he must really like his own bed, but let’s just hope the strikeouts tic up against a Marlins offense that strikes out a bit less than average.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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