Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, June 2nd
We’ve had our run of difficult days this season, but I feel like players really need to be prepared tonight. The lowest ERA on the board over the last month is 3.99. There is only one pitcher with an above average strikeout rate over the last month (more than one start). There are no pitchers with ERA estimators below three and a half for the season and one of those has an actual ERA more than three runs higher. You’re going to have work for it tonight.
Today is also the 2nd episode of Rotonomics on GrindersLive at 3:30 ET today. It’s a great show for anyone looking to learn more about some sabermetric concepts.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | -6.2 | 4.61 | 5.81 | 1.46 | 1.37 | 5.41 | 5.78 | COL | 101 | 94 | 138 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 9.4 | 2.64 | 6.23 | 1.79 | 1.03 | 2.97 | KAN | 95 | 101 | 149 | |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -8.4 | 4.12 | 5.55 | 1.15 | 1.02 | 4.23 | 3.94 | PHI | 65 | 74 | 49 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.3 | 4.62 | 5.4 | 1.41 | 0.86 | 4.2 | 5.48 | SEA | 116 | 122 | 157 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 1.9 | 5.09 | 5.13 | 1.71 | 1.37 | 4.67 | 4.96 | CIN | 78 | 78 | 133 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | -0.3 | 3.74 | 6.12 | 1.11 | 1.02 | 3.22 | 3.81 | MIL | 77 | 89 | 105 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 3.2 | 3.92 | 4.62 | 1.27 | 1 | 4.2 | 4.02 | FLA | 88 | 97 | 77 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -3.4 | 4.15 | 5.93 | 2.11 | 1.03 | 3.91 | TAM | 118 | 96 | 90 | |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -7.8 | 4.66 | 4.71 | 0.64 | 1.01 | 4.93 | 2.53 | NYY | 69 | 80 | 39 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.1 | 4.33 | 5.46 | 1.09 | 1.03 | 4.86 | 4.41 | MIN | 85 | 69 | 111 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -1.5 | 3.22 | 5.87 | 1.45 | 1.01 | 3.02 | 3.8 | DET | 108 | 108 | 81 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.9 | 3.76 | 6.34 | 1.53 | 1.04 | 3.87 | 3.81 | BAL | 103 | 110 | 97 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -2.8 | 4.35 | 5.55 | 1.53 | 1.04 | 3.65 | 6.18 | BOS | 124 | 127 | 137 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | -6.5 | 4.03 | 6.02 | 1.6 | 0.86 | 4.55 | 4.09 | SDG | 73 | 100 | 142 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 2.1 | 3.92 | 6.1 | 1.02 | 1 | 3.92 | 4.97 | PIT | 107 | 119 | 103 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.7 | 4.18 | 5.91 | 1.57 | 1.03 | 4.46 | 5.37 | CLE | 117 | 103 | 125 |
Carlos Carrasco left his start on April 24th in the 3rd inning with a hamstring issue and has not faced a major league batter since. Looking at the rest of this crew, your best bet is to say a prayer and then look at his rehab outings. There was just one in which he went four innings and faced 18 batters, which is not too encouraging. He did strike out six, but also allowed a HR. Time for another small prayer and we look at his opponent today, the Royals. They broke their lineup last week and have since caught fire. Go figure. They strike out more than last season, but still less than average without taking walks. Their hard hit and HR rates on the road and vs RHPs are some of the lower numbers on the board.
Chase Anderson hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his last four starts and I’m sorry, but that’s all I can see that’s a positive here. He’s allowed 10 HRs and just snapped a streak of seven straight starts with one. He allows a lot of hard contact (20.2 Hard-Soft%) and pitches mostly in a difficult park and though on the road, gets another power friendly location tonight. He’s gone five innings or less in seven of his 10 starts and more than six innings just once. I’m sure you’ve already figured out why then today. The Phillies are the 2nd worst home offense (6.9 HR/FB, -0.7 HR/FB) in baseball and 3rd worst vs RHP (9.2 HR/FB, 4.6 Hard-Soft%). This is the top matchup tonight, regardless of park.
Jerad Eickhoff has allowed less than three runs or struck out more than four just once in his last six outings, though he’s gone at least six innings in all but one of those starts. His strikeout rate was way down in May and his HRs were up. He has maintained great control and allows hard contact at about a league average rate. He faces a Milwaukee team that has some power (15.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but less so on the road, where they really struggle, though this is a favorable park for power hitters too. They strike out 27% of the time both on the road and vs RHP.
Kyle Gibson last pitched in a major league game on April 22nd, allowing seven runs in three innings. He’s walked 12 of the 101 batters he’s faced this year and walked 11 before going on the DL with a shoulder issue. He was not showing a velocity decline at the time and has pitched well in two rehab outings, totaling 9.1 IP, striking out 8 of 34 batters without a HR and just one walk. Tampa Bay has struck out 26% of the time vs RHP.
Matt Boyd allowed two HRs and lasted just five innings, but also struck out seven of the 21 A’s he faced in his return to the majors over the weekend. He allowed 17 HRs in 57.1 major league innings last year, but pitched well at AAA this year with a 14.3 K-BB% and just three HRs in 48 innings. While I’d suspect his HR issues are going to continue, he’s got a great matchup against a team with below average power on the road (9.4 HR/FB) and even less vs LHP (7.7 HR/FB, 8.3 Hard-Soft%). The Yankees now have the worst road offense in baseball and 4th worst vs LHP. They have the coldest bats in the league over the last week.
Michael Pineda has allowed 20 ERs over his last 20.1 IP. You might look at his 7.52 ERA in May and not believe this, but his underlying numbers actually improved. He had the same 17.7 K-BB% in May that he had in April. His BABIP went up over .400, his LOB% dropped to nearly 60%. From a batted ball standpoint, his 24.7 LD% was a bit high, but his GB% rose five points, while his FB% dropped nearly 10 points with his GB/FB rising from 1.06 to 1.56. His Hard-Soft dropped from 20% to 10.6%. He allowed seven HRs in April (all in two starts) and four in May (one each in four starts). He faces a difficult Detroit offense that has hit the ball hard at home (19.6 Hard-Soft%), but a 16.3 K-BB% vs RHP and have struggled over the last week (24.9 K%, 3.5 Hard-Soft%).
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
No qualifiers tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Matt Moore faces the 3rd worst offense vs LHP (24.9 K%, 25.8 Hard%, 7.9 HR/FB), but they do walk 8.9% of the time and he had a 9.7 BB% in May with just a 16.9 K% (8.8 SwStr%). Batted ball wise, he allowed a 17.6 HR/FB (37.4 Hard%). The Twins will be without their most proficient RHB (Sano), but this is not a profile I want to pay $8K for on DraftKings. Even $7.2K on FanDuel is a bit sketchy. Perhaps if he were $2K less on either site like Boyd. He went more than five innings for the first time in five starts last time out and struck out three or fewer in three of those starts. He certainly has the upside, but seems to blow up more than half the time.
Rick Porcello has seen his K% tank over the last month, as we expected with his low SwStr%. He struck out at least six in each of his first five starts, but none of his last five. It’s not a great matchup at a high cost.
Wade Miley would be a good play today if he were right-handed. The Padres have a 21.0 HR/FB over the last seven days and a 17.8 HR/FB vs RHP this season. They’re a league average offense vs lefties, although with a 26.8 K% and he does have a league average SwStr%. He’s still over-priced above $8K on each site and will probably be over-owned because he’s facing the Padres.
Juan Nicasio has allowed 15 ERs over his last 20 IP (four starts). He’s struck out 18 of 93 batters, but also allowed five HRs. LHBs continue to hammer him for a wOBA above .400. Six of the 100 he’s faced have homered this season.
Wei-Yin Chen has been an enigma in May. Go look at his game log. He’s faced several high strikeout offense and plenty of just bad ones this season with erratic results. A difficult and mostly RH Pirates lineup (15.5 HR/FB, 15.3 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) is a pretty easy pass here.
Eddie Butler doesn’t have a particularly difficult matchup, even after Coors is factored in, but it’s still unfavorable and he rarely misses bats.
Yordano Ventura did not walk a single one of the 31 batters he faced in his last start, but walked four of 27 against the same White Sox lineup in his previous start. His 9.9 BB% in May has brought his season rate down to 13.1%, but his strikeout rate crated to 12.1% in May too (4.5 SwStr%). Cleveland has a 10.4 BB% at home, 9.5 BB% vs RHP, and 10.5 BB% over the last week.
Ubaldo Jimenez costs under $5K on DraftKings and I have him about even with a Colorado pitcher in Coors today. The Red Sox are frankly the tougher matchup and he struck out just as many of the 149 batters as he walked in May (19 each).
Colin Rea pitches in the only negative run environment tonight, but faces the hottest offense in baseball and, really, one of the best. You can see how Seattle compares favorably to Boston in wRC+ vs RHPs.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | L2 Years | 14.7% | 7.9% | Road | 12.0% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 4.6% | 11.4% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 28.8% | 5.4% | Home | 25.9% | 5.9% | L14 Days | ||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.1% | Road | 17.1% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 4.7% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 17.5% | 9.3% | Home | 18.1% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 10.0% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | L2 Years | 11.8% | 9.2% | Home | 13.9% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 1.8% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.9% | 5.5% | Home | 25.5% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 3.9% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.3% | 10.2% | Road | 22.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 16.3% | 7.9% | Home | 17.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.9% | Home | 17.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.9% | Road | 16.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.6% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.9% | 3.5% | Road | 22.5% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.2% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.7% | 4.9% | Road | 19.3% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 3.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.4% | 10.9% | Home | 21.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.0% | Road | 16.4% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.4% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 5.1% | Home | 19.2% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 8.5% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 19.8% | 9.5% | Road | 17.7% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 12.1% | 6.9% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 18.0% | 9.1% | RH | 18.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 15.0% | 8.6% |
| Royals | Road | 20.0% | 5.5% | RH | 19.1% | 6.1% | L7Days | 15.4% | 8.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.3% | 7.9% | RH | 21.8% | 6.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 18.9% | 8.3% | RH | 18.8% | 9.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.2% |
| Reds | Road | 22.7% | 6.4% | RH | 22.6% | 6.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 27.1% | 10.7% | RH | 26.9% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.4% | 10.8% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.8% | 7.2% | RH | 19.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.5% | 6.2% |
| Rays | Road | 24.9% | 8.8% | RH | 26.0% | 8.4% | L7Days | 29.4% | 6.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 20.0% | 7.3% | LH | 19.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.7% | 7.4% |
| Twins | Home | 19.1% | 7.5% | LH | 24.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.7% | 8.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 22.3% | 7.7% | RH | 23.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.9% | 7.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 19.5% | 9.4% | RH | 23.2% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.9% | 10.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 20.4% | 7.7% | RH | 18.6% | 8.4% | L7Days | 17.4% | 9.4% |
| Padres | Home | 24.6% | 7.1% | LH | 26.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.5% | 4.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.7% | 8.6% | LH | 24.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.7% |
| Indians | Home | 19.2% | 10.4% | RH | 21.1% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.5% | 10.5% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | Reds | L2 Years | 31.1% | 12.2% | 14.1% | 2016 | 32.0% | 20.0% | 13.7% | Road | 35.8% | 14.2% | 18.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 5.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 26.6% | 11.9% | 8.7% | 2016 | 38.3% | 20.0% | 23.3% | Home | 34.2% | 20.3% | 18.8% | L14 Days | |||
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.3% | 13.0% | 15.8% | 2016 | 37.0% | 17.6% | 20.2% | Road | 29.7% | 14.8% | 14.5% | L14 Days | 31.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% |
| Colin Rea | Padres | L2 Years | 32.0% | 9.0% | 18.2% | 2016 | 29.1% | 10.0% | 12.0% | Home | 34.9% | 5.8% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Eddie Butler | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 2016 | 36.2% | 11.4% | 23.8% | Home | 32.5% | 17.8% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 5.6% | 16.7% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 2016 | 30.3% | 13.1% | 9.8% | Home | 27.8% | 8.0% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 25.6% | 9.1% | 2.5% |
| Juan Nicasio | Pirates | L2 Years | 23.7% | 13.3% | 4.4% | 2016 | 20.4% | 16.7% | -3.7% | Road | 24.8% | 11.6% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 33.3% | 17.6% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 26.5% | 10.6% | 8.6% | 2016 | 23.7% | 10.0% | -1.3% | Home | 28.3% | 13.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | |||
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.2% | 17.8% | 15.0% | 2016 | 26.9% | 18.2% | -11.6% | Home | 30.7% | 13.1% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 25.0% | 21.5% |
| Matt Moore | Rays | L2 Years | 33.6% | 13.4% | 12.3% | 2016 | 35.8% | 15.9% | 15.3% | Road | 32.6% | 8.9% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 13.3% | 10.3% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 29.9% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 2016 | 31.8% | 19.3% | 15.3% | Road | 32.2% | 8.5% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 31.4% | 8.3% | 11.4% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.9% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 2016 | 29.4% | 12.9% | 12.5% | Road | 32.2% | 16.4% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 7.7% | 7.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.0% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 2016 | 30.6% | 11.9% | 13.3% | Home | 27.7% | 11.8% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 34.4% | 0.0% | 21.9% |
| Wade Miley | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.4% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 2016 | 33.2% | 17.4% | 14.2% | Road | 26.0% | 10.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 53.3% | 36.4% | 40.0% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 28.8% | 11.5% | 8.9% | 2016 | 32.4% | 12.5% | 17.8% | Home | 30.8% | 13.3% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 11.8% | 20.0% |
| Yordano Ventura | Royals | L2 Years | 27.6% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 2016 | 27.9% | 11.4% | 8.9% | Road | 27.4% | 14.1% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 15.0% | 10.6% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rockies | Home | 35.1% | 14.3% | 18.6% | RH | 31.9% | 12.5% | 14.4% | L7Days | 40.6% | 20.8% | 26.4% |
| Royals | Road | 26.6% | 9.3% | 7.2% | RH | 28.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | L7Days | 30.3% | 10.2% | 8.9% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.9% | 6.9% | -0.7% | RH | 25.6% | 9.2% | 4.6% | L7Days | 21.4% | 7.5% | -3.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.9% | 16.2% | 14.0% | RH | 31.3% | 16.2% | 13.6% | L7Days | 35.7% | 21.7% | 19.6% |
| Reds | Road | 30.2% | 10.0% | 11.5% | RH | 31.7% | 12.9% | 14.1% | L7Days | 32.3% | 23.5% | 14.9% |
| Brewers | Road | 28.8% | 12.9% | 8.3% | RH | 32.2% | 15.6% | 13.0% | L7Days | 37.9% | 14.8% | 20.9% |
| Marlins | Home | 28.3% | 10.8% | 5.0% | RH | 27.9% | 10.4% | 5.1% | L7Days | 26.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% |
| Rays | Road | 34.0% | 15.8% | 15.7% | RH | 34.3% | 14.4% | 13.7% | L7Days | 35.5% | 8.5% | 13.2% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.9% | 9.4% | 10.0% | LH | 31.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 32.7% | 10.2% | 16.6% |
| Twins | Home | 31.5% | 9.2% | 13.4% | LH | 25.8% | 7.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 27.8% | 13.6% | 4.6% |
| Tigers | Home | 35.3% | 13.6% | 19.6% | RH | 33.1% | 13.8% | 15.3% | L7Days | 29.5% | 12.3% | 3.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.9% | 12.5% | 9.1% | RH | 31.8% | 14.6% | 11.3% | L7Days | 36.3% | 5.2% | 16.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 33.2% | 16.4% | 12.9% | RH | 33.9% | 14.2% | 15.5% | L7Days | 38.1% | 21.1% | 19.0% |
| Padres | Home | 27.9% | 9.7% | 11.2% | LH | 30.2% | 17.8% | 14.0% | L7Days | 34.5% | 21.0% | 17.2% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.3% | 12.7% | 10.2% | LH | 33.6% | 15.5% | 15.3% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.0% | 13.8% |
| Indians | Home | 30.6% | 11.2% | 14.5% | RH | 31.5% | 13.3% | 14.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 15.0% | 15.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 13.5% | 7.6% | 1.78 | 9.6% | 5.0% | 1.92 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 23.5% | 10.9% | 2.16 | |||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 18.0% | 7.2% | 2.50 | 19.5% | 7.8% | 2.50 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 16.3% | 6.1% | 2.67 | 14.6% | 5.0% | 2.92 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 15.9% | 7.3% | 2.18 | 13.8% | 7.1% | 1.94 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 20.1% | 8.9% | 2.26 | 14.8% | 7.5% | 1.97 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 23.2% | 7.6% | 3.05 | 19.4% | 8.6% | 2.26 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 10.9% | 9.5% | 1.15 | |||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 23.7% | 12.9% | 1.84 | 33.3% | 13.8% | 2.41 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 22.1% | 10.3% | 2.15 | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 23.8% | 13.4% | 1.78 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 1.87 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 22.4% | 7.6% | 2.95 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 2.43 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 18.0% | 7.3% | 2.47 | 12.9% | 6.2% | 2.08 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 18.8% | 9.7% | 1.94 | 20.3% | 9.0% | 2.26 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 20.2% | 8.3% | 2.43 | 21.1% | 9.1% | 2.32 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 15.1% | 7.0% | 2.16 | 12.1% | 4.5% | 2.69 |
Kyle Gibson has a career 9.2 SwStr% with a 15.2 K% (1.65 K/SwStr). That’s a terrible ratio and might be the biggest long term outlier I’ve seen doing this, but it’s still much higher than the 10.9 K% he had through his first four starts and the Rays could add a few more today.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 9.6 | 5 | -4.6 | 5.46 | -4.14 | 6.57 | -3.03 | 7.67 | 5.1 | -2.57 | 5.28 | -2.39 | 5.6 | -2.07 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.45 | 3.55 | 1.1 | 3.44 | 0.99 | 4.35 | 1.9 | |||||||
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 5 | 4.45 | -0.55 | 4.64 | -0.36 | 5.51 | 0.51 | 4.55 | 4.14 | -0.41 | 4.54 | -0.01 | 5.11 | 0.56 |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 4.47 | 4.92 | 0.45 | 4.89 | 0.42 | 4.59 | 0.12 | 4.3 | 5.21 | 0.91 | 5.29 | 0.99 | 4.47 | 0.17 |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 4.13 | 4.1 | -0.03 | 4.11 | -0.02 | 3.98 | -0.15 | 4.15 | 4.45 | 0.3 | 4.45 | 0.3 | 4.31 | 0.16 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 4.07 | 3.87 | -0.2 | 3.79 | -0.28 | 3.89 | -0.18 | 3.99 | 4.56 | 0.57 | 4.24 | 0.25 | 4.93 | 0.94 |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 4.79 | 4.02 | -0.77 | 3.97 | -0.82 | 4.54 | -0.25 | 6.75 | 4.17 | -2.58 | 4.22 | -2.53 | 5.62 | -1.13 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 6.1 | 5.42 | -0.68 | 5.64 | -0.46 | 5.34 | -0.76 | |||||||
| Matt Boyd | DET | 2.79 | 3.72 | 0.93 | 4.02 | 1.23 | 4.88 | 2.09 | 5.4 | 2.53 | -2.87 | 2.89 | -2.51 | 5.52 | 0.12 |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 5.31 | 3.96 | -1.35 | 4.02 | -1.29 | 4.52 | -0.79 | 7.36 | 4.86 | -2.5 | 5.01 | -2.35 | 5.92 | -1.44 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 6.92 | 3.58 | -3.34 | 3.69 | -3.23 | 4.66 | -2.26 | 7.52 | 3.5 | -4.02 | 3.58 | -3.94 | 4.03 | -3.49 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 3.68 | 3.62 | -0.06 | 3.77 | 0.09 | 3.84 | 0.16 | 4.65 | 4.31 | -0.34 | 4.45 | -0.2 | 4.05 | -0.6 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.36 | 4.75 | -1.61 | 4.52 | -1.84 | 4.48 | -1.88 | 7.66 | 5.31 | -2.35 | 5.08 | -2.58 | 4.17 | -3.49 |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 4.95 | 4.31 | -0.64 | 4.35 | -0.6 | 5.1 | 0.15 | 4.82 | 4.46 | -0.36 | 4.64 | -0.18 | 6.4 | 1.58 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 4.37 | 3.93 | -0.44 | 3.82 | -0.55 | 3.84 | -0.53 | 4.5 | 3.95 | -0.55 | 4.02 | -0.48 | 3.87 | -0.63 |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 5.17 | 5.59 | 0.42 | 5.66 | 0.49 | 5.51 | 0.34 | 6.59 | 5.44 | -1.15 | 5.49 | -1.1 | 5.74 | -0.85 |
Carlos Carrasco had a .214 BABIP and 97.4 LOB% in his 22 innings before going on the DL. Four of his 20 fly balls have left the yard.
Matt Boyd has pitched just 9.2 major league innings this season.
Michael Pineda – We already went into his BABIP and batted ball with contact rates over the last month. Since 2000, there have been just four pitcher seasons with over 100 innings pitched where a pitcher has had an ERA over two runs above his FIP. The last was 2012 Jake Arrieta, otherwise it hasn’t happened since 2003. Right now, he’s at a little over 50 innings this season and I really hesitate to use the “L” word unless you’ve personally witnessed it, but there’s a really good chance his luck is going to turn. It’s not all luck, but you have to have some bad luck for a SIERA and xFIP over three runs below his ERA. Lest you think we should go with FIP here, he has a career 7.5 HR/FB on the road in his career, 8.0 this year.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfredo Simon | CIN | 0.295 | 0.382 | 0.087 | 0.204 | 6.7% | 88.6% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.281 | 0.214 | -0.067 | 0.186 | 0.0% | 89.4% |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.305 | 0.280 | -0.025 | 0.202 | 7.4% | 86.5% |
| Colin Rea | SDG | 0.299 | 0.275 | -0.024 | 0.245 | 14.0% | 91.7% |
| Eddie Butler | COL | 0.322 | 0.267 | -0.055 | 0.221 | 14.3% | 91.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.286 | 0.299 | 0.013 | 0.238 | 16.4% | 89.4% |
| Juan Nicasio | PIT | 0.291 | 0.302 | 0.011 | 0.218 | 12.5% | 87.7% |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.329 | 0.297 | -0.032 | 0.145 | 0.0% | 90.9% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.311 | 0.250 | -0.061 | 0.16 | 18.2% | 79.3% |
| Matt Moore | TAM | 0.286 | 0.337 | 0.051 | 0.216 | 9.5% | 83.9% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.299 | 0.390 | 0.091 | 0.231 | 1.8% | 85.9% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.298 | 0.273 | -0.025 | 0.183 | 6.5% | 87.7% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.296 | 0.375 | 0.079 | 0.228 | 4.8% | 86.8% |
| Wade Miley | SEA | 0.278 | 0.291 | 0.013 | 0.204 | 7.2% | 87.1% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | FLA | 0.309 | 0.311 | 0.002 | 0.227 | 3.1% | 88.9% |
| Yordano Ventura | KAN | 0.298 | 0.257 | -0.041 | 0.164 | 15.7% | 90.4% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is as brutal as we’ve ever seen. We’re going to be strongly looking at some plays we thought we had abandoned, but upside and matchups are king tonight. The price discrepancies aren’t as crazy overall today and run both ways (or more than usually the top and bottom of DraftKings), but there is just one pitcher priced higher than $9.1K on either site and he hasn’t pitched in over a month.
I’m not utilizing overall rankings in parenthesis today because it’s really a crap shoot. The guys I’ve listed could bomb, the guys I omitted could dominate. That could happen any day of course, but there seems to be a higher chance today. Practice good bankroll management and take some GPP shots today. There are no strong cash game pitchers.
Value Tier One
Michael Pineda is the ultimate speculative play on an ultimately speculative day, but the worm has to turn here sooner or later. It would be different if he was still getting pounded regularly, but the contact has been better over the last month with the same great K-BB%. He’s probably never going to meet his non-FIP estimators because of Yankee Stadium, but just two of his 11 HRs have come on the road with an equal five starts both home and away. Additionally, the Tigers are coming off a West Coast trip with an evening game last night (7pm ET) without a day off to come home and play this make-up game. Do not take this as a cash game recommendation. We’re thinking outside the box today and looking for hidden upside.
Value Tier Two
Jerad Eickhoff has not pitched as well lately, but has been an average pitcher overall this season. There’s definitely some HR risk here, but the Brewers lean strongly RH in the power department and he has been much more effective vs RHBs (.236 career wOBA vs .364). The Brewers easily have tonight’s highest strikeout rate and should project that on him. I’d even give him a bump to the top tier for just $7K on FanDuel.
Value Tier Three
Matt Boyd is a HR machine. He’s allowed 19 HRs in 67 career innings. He’s also cheap, can miss a few bats, and has one of the top park adjusted matchups tonight.
Carlos Carrasco – I really want to push him to the top and forget about it, but he’s faced just 18 AAA batters since April 24th. He’s facing an incredibly hot offense and I’d expect him to be on a pitch count. Well, everyone’s on a pitch count, but his will probably be lower.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Chase Anderson has not been a good pitcher by any measure, but he’s facing the Phillies. His $8.3K cost on DraftKings pushes him to the very bottom of potential usefulness, while $6.1K is a lot more attractive on FanDuel, though he’ll probably need a Win.
Kyle Gibson pitched well in two minor league outings, is still missing bats at nearly a league average rate, and the Rays strike out a lot. He keeps the ball on the ground and generates less hard contact than league average otherwise. $7.5K on DraftKings might be stretching it, but he could be worth $5.8K on FanDuel if he throws strikes.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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