Advanced Pitching Stats: Thursday, September 8th
Ivan Nova is the highest priced pitcher on DraftKings and a guy who has one start back from Tommy John Surgery owns that honor on FanDuel. That’s what kind of day it is and I want readers to know there’s still time to escape. With just six games and the NFL season starting tonight, maybe nobody’s even reading this anyway. Then again, maybe some of the football players are looking to supplement with some daily fantasy baseball action and we have more readers than normal. If that’s the case, apologies in advance. This is not what a typical daily fantasy pitching board looks like. This is quite a bit uglier than it’s been in a while.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 3.1 | 4.29 | 5.05 | 0.49 | 1.02 | 4.76 | 5.93 | PHI | 87 | 81 | 67 |
| Alec Asher | PHI | -1.4 | 5.34 | 4.14 | 0.8 | 1.02 | 4.66 | WAS | 98 | 96 | 94 | |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -1.2 | 3.75 | 6.22 | 1.93 | 1.02 | 2.15 | NYY | 100 | 92 | 64 | |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.5 | 4.26 | 5.87 | 1.41 | 1.02 | 4.21 | 4.66 | TAM | 102 | 99 | 98 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | -6.4 | 3.74 | 5.86 | 3.77 | 0.86 | 3.77 | 3.66 | COL | 85 | 90 | 102 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.2 | 4.75 | 5.73 | 0.72 | 0.95 | 4.78 | 6.42 | PIT | 108 | 94 | 106 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 2.4 | 4.74 | 5.68 | 1.02 | 0.9 | 5.53 | 4.81 | SEA | 114 | 103 | 143 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -1 | 4.2 | 5.64 | 1.7 | 0.95 | 4.41 | 3.47 | CIN | 81 | 90 | 110 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | -6.6 | 3.71 | 6.15 | 2.54 | 0.97 | 3.11 | 3.1 | MIL | 86 | 100 | 125 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | -1.4 | 6.61 | 5. | 1.1 | 0.86 | 6.4 | 7.24 | SDG | 93 | 80 | 58 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -8.7 | 4.33 | 6.12 | 1.34 | 0.97 | 4.06 | 5.03 | STL | 104 | 109 | 128 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -4.1 | 3.82 | 5.63 | 1.04 | 0.9 | 3.66 | 5.46 | TEX | 91 | 98 | 154 |
Clayton Richards has just a 7.5 K-BB% through four starts, allowing only five runs (three earned), but with a 66.2 GB% and a -2.8 Hard-Soft%. His ground ball rate has increased throughout his career, but he has never generated contact like this for an extended period. It may not be something we expect to continue, but he’s doing it now and he’s in one of the top spots on the board, not only getting the Rockies on the road (16.1 K-BB%), but putting them in Petco.
Ivan Nova has a 19.3 K% since the trade with just two walks. His ground ball rate is actually down a bit (48.2%) with the same rate of hard contact (35.1%). The theory is that so much hard contact might hurt him less in Pittsburgh and it has to an extent, but he has still allowed three HRs in three home starts. He also has an 80.3% strand rate since the trade. He’s in a nice spot at home against the Reds, who have just an 11.1 HR/FB on the road.
Jaime Garcia has gone back and forth with weeks of not striking anybody out and then doing so at nearly a league average rate, but does own the second highest ground ball rate (57.5%) in baseball and has currently struck out 20 of his last 75. This will be his third start against a Milwaukee offense he’s dominated this season, striking out 22 of 85 batters. They strike out around a quarter of the time vs LHP and have just average power on the road in a park that limits the long ball, but they walk a ton and have a 15.2 HR/FB vs LHP with a current lineup of batters who are very potent against southpaws. They were shut down by a very mediocre one at home last night though.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
A.J. Cole (.170 – 83.3% – 11.4) has a 13.2 K-BB% through three starts that nearly matches his 13.9 K-BB% at AAA this season with both his walk and strikeout rates each a bit higher. He has amazingly generated just a 21.6 GB%, but with 29.4% weak contact, yet four HRs because nearly 70% of his contact has been in the air. It doesn’t seem like much of anything he’s doing right now outside of perhaps his peripherals (strikeout and walk rates) seems sustainable. He allowed 16 HRs in 124.2 AAA IP, which is a bit much. He’s in a great spot tonight, at home against the Phillies, but appears over-priced on the back of an unsustainable BABIP and LOB% so far. At least that seems to be the case on DraftKings.
Junior Guerra (.250 – 78.5% – 8.3) costs an above average price in what may be the worst spot on the board in St Louis with just an average 12.1 K-BB%.
Dan Straily (.237 – 79.5% 12.0) got away with just one run on seven walks in his last start and allowed four HRs in the previous one.
Derek Holland (.281 – 69.7% – 8.9) has a .250 BABIP, 85.2 LOB% and 5.0 HR/FB in three starts since returning, but has been missing more bats. Seattle has been hot and thumps LHP at home though.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
C.C. Sabathia had struck out 34 of 104 batters going into his last outing. He proceeded to whiff just one Oriole. Should we be surprised that rampage didn’t continue? The most remarkable thing about his season is the incredible amount of weak contact he’s generated (0.4 Hard-Soft%). He has the second lowest exit velocity (85.4) among starting pitchers with at least 100 batted balls this season, yet he’s allowed 15 HRs over his last 15 starts. Where likely looking at a launch angle issue in a small park. Tampa Bay is actually one of the few matchups that aren’t favorable for the pitcher tonight. They have a 32.5 Hard% vs LHP, but lack power (11.2 HR/FB) and strike out 25.4% of the time against southpaws. The Rays clearly supply some strikeout upside, but not to the point where we want to pay $8K or more for Sabathia at home.
Taijuan Walker has allowed 23 ERs in 21.2 innings over his last five starts, spanning two months due to a foot injury that he’s pitching as if is still bothering him. He’s allowed eight HRs over that span, striking out just 14 of 104 batters, not even lasting an inning in his last start. His SwStr% has been up over his last two starts, but that’s about the only good thing we can say here. Texas is the hottest offense in the league, striking out just 17.6% of the time with a 37.1 Hard% over the last week.
Alex Cobb pitched poorly in eight rehab outings with just a 6.8 K-BB% in eight starts split between A ball and AAA, then struck out seven of 20 Blue Jays in his major league season debut, walking just one. The caveat here is just a 7.1 SwStr%, while 41.7% of his contact was marked as hard hit even if eight of 12 batted balls were on the ground. Add this to just 84 pitches thrown and there are serious concerns about his ability to cover even is lower cost ($6.5K on DraftKings), never mind on FanDuel, where’s priced as if he’s never left.
Alec Asher makes his first major league start after missing most of the season. He had just a 4.3 K-BB% in seven big league starts last year though and a strikeout rate just above 17% in nine AA and AAA starts this season.
Jeff Hoffman may have been worse in his road start than he was in the two at Coors. He’s in a great spot in San Diego and does have strong strikeout numbers (poor control) at AAA this season, so it’s not out of the question that he finds a way to have a decent start here, but doesn’t even cost near the minimum on DraftKings.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.7% | Home | 26.2% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Alec Asher | Phillies | L2 Years | 11.6% | 7.3% | Road | 12.8% | 6.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 17.6% | 6.4% | Road | L14 Days | 35.0% | 5.0% | ||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 19.2% | 7.7% | Home | 19.5% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 7.8% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 13.2% | 6.7% | Home | 14.1% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 3.9% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.6% | 9.6% | Road | 20.3% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 19.1% | 19.1% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.4% | 6.8% | Road | 12.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 6.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.0% | 6.1% | Home | 16.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 2.2% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.5% | 6.9% | Home | 21.5% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.1% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 7.4% | 11.8% | Road | 11.1% | 14.8% | L14 Days | 6.3% | 14.6% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 20.7% | 8.6% | Road | 22.3% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.5% | Home | 24.5% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 10.0% | 2.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 21.3% | 6.8% | RH | 22.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.4% | 8.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.1% | 9.0% | RH | 19.4% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.8% | 7.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 19.2% | 8.5% | RH | 20.0% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 10.2% |
| Rays | Road | 23.2% | 7.6% | LH | 25.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.4% | 7.3% | LH | 22.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 8.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 20.1% | 8.7% | RH | 20.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 6.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 9.0% | LH | 21.4% | 8.0% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.4% |
| Reds | Road | 21.1% | 6.9% | RH | 21.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 13.1% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.8% | 10.1% | LH | 24.9% | 11.8% | L7Days | 20.7% | 10.1% |
| Padres | Home | 24.2% | 8.0% | RH | 25.1% | 7.2% | L7Days | 28.3% | 4.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.7% | 8.6% | RH | 21.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 9.3% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.5% | 6.4% | RH | 19.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.4% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.9% | 10.6% | -1.2% | 2016 | 21.6% | 11.4% | -7.8% | Home | 33.3% | 12.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 8.3% | -18.2% |
| Alec Asher | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.4% | 16.3% | 13.5% | 2016 | Road | 35.1% | 0.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 25.8% | 7.4% | 12.9% | 2016 | 41.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% | Road | L14 Days | 41.7% | 0.0% | 25.0% | |||
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | L2 Years | 26.9% | 13.9% | 7.0% | 2016 | 24.3% | 11.0% | 0.4% | Home | 26.0% | 14.3% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 13.3% | 2.6% |
| Clayton Richard | Padres | L2 Years | 24.1% | 10.6% | 0.7% | 2016 | 22.9% | 8.0% | -3.8% | Home | 30.2% | 5.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 0.0% | -4.7% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 31.7% | 11.5% | 14.8% | 2016 | 32.5% | 12.0% | 16.8% | Road | 32.3% | 14.9% | 15.4% | L14 Days | 42.3% | 38.5% | 34.6% |
| Derek Holland | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.7% | 10.0% | 14.2% | 2016 | 30.4% | 8.9% | 12.3% | Road | 32.3% | 12.8% | 14.4% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 7.7% | 24.4% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 34.1% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 2016 | 35.4% | 18.9% | 16.5% | Home | 31.8% | 15.7% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 16.7% | 6.1% |
| Jaime Garcia | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.9% | 13.1% | 9.1% | 2016 | 30.3% | 17.4% | 11.5% | Home | 29.0% | 15.3% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 40.0% | 19.0% | 25.4% | 2016 | 40.0% | 19.0% | 25.4% | Road | 45.0% | 25.0% | 25.0% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 20.0% | 23.7% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 33.3% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 2016 | 33.9% | 8.3% | 13.4% | Road | 28.9% | 11.8% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.5% | 14.4% | 10.4% | 2016 | 28.1% | 18.0% | 7.1% | Home | 28.9% | 15.8% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | Road | 31.8% | 11.9% | 11.7% | RH | 29.0% | 12.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 30.5% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.9% | 13.4% | 13.6% | RH | 32.6% | 12.5% | 14.6% | L7Days | 25.6% | 8.6% | 1.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.7% | 14.1% | 10.9% | RH | 29.6% | 13.1% | 13.2% | L7Days | 29.8% | 12.5% | 11.5% |
| Rays | Road | 32.2% | 14.1% | 13.9% | LH | 32.5% | 11.2% | 16.1% | L7Days | 31.5% | 16.0% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.0% | 13.0% | 10.4% | LH | 32.5% | 14.3% | 13.5% | L7Days | 35.2% | 18.2% | 21.4% |
| Pirates | Home | 31.7% | 11.5% | 11.7% | RH | 30.7% | 10.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 31.3% | 13.2% | 12.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.9% | 16.8% | 13.6% | LH | 31.2% | 16.9% | 10.7% | L7Days | 44.7% | 23.1% | 29.8% |
| Reds | Road | 29.5% | 11.1% | 10.6% | RH | 30.4% | 11.8% | 12.5% | L7Days | 25.3% | 2.0% | 10.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.6% | 13.3% | 10.6% | LH | 32.9% | 15.2% | 15.1% | L7Days | 37.4% | 23.4% | 20.6% |
| Padres | Home | 30.6% | 12.5% | 11.4% | RH | 30.7% | 12.9% | 11.5% | L7Days | 30.0% | 9.1% | 8.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.9% | 13.4% | 16.6% | RH | 34.7% | 15.4% | 17.4% | L7Days | 42.6% | 19.4% | 27.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.3% | 14.8% | 12.4% | RH | 30.8% | 14.3% | 11.6% | L7Days | 37.1% | 18.6% | 21.7% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 22.4% | 10.7% | 2.09 | 22.4% | 10.7% | 2.09 |
| Alec Asher | PHI | ||||||
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 35.0% | 7.1% | 4.93 | 35.0% | 7.1% | 4.93 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 19.5% | 9.8% | 1.99 | 27.3% | 12.1% | 2.26 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 14.3% | 8.1% | 1.77 | 17.2% | 9.5% | 1.81 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 19.9% | 9.8% | 2.03 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 2.05 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 14.3% | 7.6% | 1.88 | 17.1% | 10.6% | 1.61 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 18.2% | 9.1% | 2.00 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 2.31 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 19.9% | 8.9% | 2.24 | 19.7% | 7.8% | 2.53 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.85 | 7.4% | 4.0% | 1.85 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 20.8% | 10.8% | 1.93 | 18.8% | 8.6% | 2.19 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 20.1% | 9.7% | 2.07 | 13.4% | 10.8% | 1.24 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 3.86 | 5.04 | 1.18 | 5.77 | 1.91 | 5.4 | 1.54 | 3.86 | 5.04 | 1.18 | 5.77 | 1.91 | 5.4 | 1.54 |
| Alec Asher | PHI | ||||||||||||||
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.6 | 2.15 | -1.45 | 1.96 | -1.64 | 0.95 | -2.65 | 3.6 | 2.15 | -1.45 | 1.96 | -1.64 | 0.95 | -2.65 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 4.2 | 4.47 | 0.27 | 4.48 | 0.28 | 4.22 | 0.02 | 4.26 | 3.33 | -0.93 | 3.18 | -1.08 | 3.44 | -0.82 |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 3.29 | 4.22 | 0.93 | 4.43 | 1.14 | 4.01 | 0.72 | 1.13 | 4.2 | 3.07 | 4.04 | 2.91 | 4.07 | 2.94 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 3.83 | 4.74 | 0.91 | 4.99 | 1.16 | 4.82 | 0.99 | 4.21 | 4.31 | 0.1 | 4.59 | 0.38 | 5.84 | 1.63 |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 4.57 | 5.18 | 0.61 | 5.27 | 0.7 | 4.54 | -0.03 | 2 | 4.56 | 2.56 | 4.52 | 2.52 | 3.37 | 1.37 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 4.34 | 3.92 | -0.42 | 3.91 | -0.43 | 4.6 | 0.26 | 2.67 | 3.66 | 0.99 | 3.49 | 0.82 | 2.79 | 0.12 |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 4.41 | 3.94 | -0.47 | 3.77 | -0.64 | 4.19 | -0.22 | 6 | 4.01 | -1.99 | 4.02 | -1.98 | 6.08 | 0.08 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 6.6 | 6.61 | 0.01 | 6.44 | -0.16 | 7.55 | 0.95 | 6.6 | 6.61 | 0.01 | 6.44 | -0.16 | 7.55 | 0.95 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 2.85 | 4.36 | 1.51 | 4.23 | 1.38 | 3.64 | 0.79 | 0 | 5.03 | 5.03 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.6 | 4.16 | -0.44 | 4.41 | -0.19 | 5.22 | 0.62 | 7.9 | 5.33 | -2.57 | 6.55 | -1.35 | 7.4 | -0.5 |
Clayton Richard has stranded 91.9% in his four starts.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Cole | WAS | 0.286 | 0.170 | -0.116 | 0.098 | 22.9% | 84.9% |
| Alec Asher | PHI | 0.306 | |||||
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.300 | 0.333 | 0.033 | 0.083 | 0.0% | 91.7% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.294 | 0.293 | -0.001 | 0.168 | 14.3% | 87.5% |
| Clayton Richard | SDG | 0.301 | 0.349 | 0.048 | 0.131 | 4.0% | 86.7% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.288 | 0.237 | -0.051 | 0.213 | 8.1% | 86.1% |
| Derek Holland | TEX | 0.294 | 0.281 | -0.013 | 0.218 | 9.7% | 88.0% |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.301 | 0.293 | -0.008 | 0.184 | 9.0% | 94.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | STL | 0.301 | 0.303 | 0.002 | 0.184 | 6.1% | 89.3% |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.312 | 0.235 | -0.077 | 0.185 | 4.8% | 94.9% |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.299 | 0.250 | -0.049 | 0.184 | 12.0% | 85.4% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.295 | 0.266 | -0.029 | 0.191 | 13.3% | 86.5% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Projecting just one or two above average performances tonight make things a bit difficult for us tonight. The top two point per dollar plays listed below are probably strong enough to make it on any day, the third pitcher, not so much at current cost.
Value Tier One
Clayton Richard has a fairly extensive history of not being a good pitcher in this league and his peripherals still stink. He’s dominating at the point of contact though, and while we probably can’t expect that to sustain as strong as it’s been, he’s in a great spot and extremely cheap (near the minimum on DraftKings).
Value Tier Two
Jaime Garcia (1) is tonight’s top pitcher and he’d probably be nowhere near that on a normal night. He’s keeping the ball on the ground at the second best rate in baseball and striking out batters again, facing an offense that strikes out a ton, but he costs around $9K and has shown a propensity for the HR this year when he doesn’t keep it on the ground (17.4 HR/FB). Though the park is advantageous for a pitcher, the Brewers are patient and hit LHP hard when they do make contact, so this is certainly not without some risk.
Value Tier Three
Ivan Nova should not be touched for $9.8K on DraftKings and is only even in consideration for $7.6K on FanDuel due to the short slate. He’s had some success since coming over to Pittsburgh, but mostly due to the park and excellent control. He’s still allowing just as much hard contact with a strikeout rate just below average.
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