Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, May 4th

by Matt Trollo (MTro86) Last Updated 2016-05-05 02:17:23

If the 2016 season has proven anything so far, it’s that there probably about 10 pitchers in the league who you can really trust from start to start and they’re usually pitching on the same day. Unfortunately, today’s not that day either. You make your best hypothesis based on the information available and then hope the BABIP bounces your way. With just seven games on the Wednesday night slate, there’s just one sure fire model of consistency this season and then you have to scavenge for scraps. Or you could just roster whoever’s facing the Blue Jays on any given night. Aside from Josh Donaldson, they look like toast. Let’s see……ewwwww Colby Lewis. This process is starting to feel like actual work.

Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.

Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.

Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.

Starting Pitching Main Chart

We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.

To further illustrate what we’re looking at today, there are just four guys with an ERA below four. One of them has a 12.3 K% and another is Colby Lewis and both have estimators more than a run higher.

Aaron Sanchez has gone at least seven innings in three starts, allowing one ER or less in four of five starts. That’s already enough to make him one of the more consistent starters on tonight’s slate. He’s often more ground balls than strikeouts, so it’s questionable whether he can sustain a strikeout rate above 20%, but he does have a double digit SwStr% in two of his five starts and these were two of the three starts where he threw his sinker less than 70% of the time, both at Tampa Bay. Maybe he’s more conscious of keeping the ball on the ground in the more dangerous run environments. That, he indeed does well with a 59.6 GB% and -2.2 Hard-Soft%. We have no idea if this was his intended approach, but if it were, this game would lean more towards 70%+ sinker usage at home against Texas, who represent somewhat of a neutral matchup in this park.

Carlos Rodon is up here because I can’t sell on almost every pitcher on a seven game slate and he’s followed a stretch of 35 batters where he walked and struck out seven each with one where he’s walked just three and struck out 14 of his last 54 batters. This is another one of those small sample things we’re going to be talking about a bit today, but there are some other things as well. He’s gone at least six innings in four of five starts and has his ground ball rate up to 53.1% in front of what’s looked like a quality defense so far. The concerns would be a much lower SwStr% while maintaining the exact same K% as last year and a decrease in first pitch strikes (44.9%) despite a higher amount of pitchers in the strike zone overall (46.3%). If you feel my confidence waning, this is the real kicker: the Red Sox have been terrible against LHP so far (24.2 K%, 5.6 HR/FB, 4.8 Hard-Soft%). It’s still really early and this should turn around, but they are what they’ve been so far and were shut down by another lefty last night (albeit a very good one).

Drew Smyly is that model of consistency mentioned in the open today. He’s allowed five HRs to Toronto this season. Other than that, he’s allowed no HRs and just four total runs in 22 innings in his three other starts and has a 32.0 K% on the season, tied for third best in the majors. As mentioned several times here, he doesn’t throw hard, but like most Rays pitchers, he throws high and it’s helped him generate a 13.4 SwStr% this season with just a 90 mph fastball. His fly ball tendencies are less dangerous in Tampa Bay, though the park has tended more towards a neutral run environment over the last few years and I suspect that might be in part due to the Tampa Bay organization teaching pitchers to challenge hitters up in what they consider a friendly environment. It may be leading to a few more HRs, but it’s been a successful approach overall. Since the start of last season, Smyly has a 15.8 HR/FB at home, but a 32.1 K%. The Dodgers finally jumped on a LH starter last night, but had previously been slumbering and are still an under-achieving offense this year.

Jose Fernandez has been erratic and has not gone deeper than six innings yet. These aren’t exactly characteristics you’re looking for in your $11K pitcher. The good news is after a couple of down starts where he looked very hittable, his velocity was back up in his last where he struck out eight of 25 Dodgers faced. The bad news is he’s walked at least three in each of his last four starts and 13 of his last 96 batters. That’s something you can live with in the two of those starts where he struck out over 30% of batters, but a little more difficult when he’s striking out five and struggling to get through the sixth. In the end, you can’t abandon a pitcher who’s striking out one-third of the batters he’s faced on a short slate in a positive matchup.

Mike Fiers is one of those pitchers I usually begrudgingly talk about when he’s not in one of the sections below because I never think he’s as good as the ERA suggests and there’s all kinds of funkiness in his numbers. This year, the BABIP is 20 points higher than his career rate and his HR rate is through the roof, pushing his ERA much higher than expected. He’s walked just three batters and his K/SwStr is barely over two. Wait! That can’t be right. Yup, like I said, not only a funkiness, but he bounces from one extreme to the other whether its BABIP, HR rate, strikeouts, or walks apparently. The one thing he does always do is generate a ton of fly balls. No, wait, that’s down over 10% too from last year and he has a GB/FB over one for the first time in his career. He’s still allowing tons of hard contact (21.0 Hard-Soft%), so that’s alright. Why am I recommending him again? Probably because with a SwStr% sitting around his career and league average, he projects to tic up a few notches to his career K% a bit above average and Minnesota is a slightly favorable matchup. They have average power overall and strike out more than the average offense.

NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK

This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.

League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)

Tyler Wilson (.241 BABIP – 81.4 LOB% – 11.1 HR/FB) set a season high with three strikeouts in his last start, but failed to make it through the fifth inning. The Yankees are awful, but strike out at a near average rate and still have a 13.6 HR/FB vs RHP. Most of that is because of Yankee Stadium, but Camden has a similar HR factor for LHBs.

Colby Lewis (.301 BABIP – 96.7 LOB% – 15.6 HR/FB) would be my top play of the night if I had any real conviction because if you’re like me, the Blue Jays have put a beating on your daily fantasy bankroll this week, being shut down by household names like Martin Perez and A.J. Griffin over the last two nights. As long as you believe in his ability to strand every runner aside from those on base when he allows a HR every four innings on average so far. His 21.0 Hard-Soft% over the last two calendar years is the highest mark on tonight’s slate by nearly six points.

NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)

Adam Morgan generated 17 swinging strikes in his season debut against Cleveland and struck out 20 of 75 batters at AAA this season. Last year, he had a 13.9 K% in 89 major league innings and even fewer in 68 more at AAA. He threw all of his pitches a mile or two per hour harder and upped his slider usage from 21% last year to 27% in his first start. This looks like real change, but I’ve been learning my lesson about jumping on small sample sizes this season and he was terrible last year and hasn’t been good or a prospect at any level since 2013. Plus, he’s facing the Cardinals, who aside from last night, have been crushing the ball at home (15.9 HR/FB, 16.0 Hard-Soft%) and vs LHP (10.6 BB%, 14.3 HR/FB, 20.5 Hard-Soft%). The matchup is enough to make me wait one more start, but he is incredibly cheap and if I had to think about it more, I might be swayed and have already considered moving him into the fourth tier.

Rubby de la Rosa is doing impressive things with his strikeout rate and has even increased his ground ball rate 10 points to 58.1%, mitigating the HR effect without really reducing the rate at which his fly balls leave the yard. He’s struck out 16 of his last 50 batters, dominating in two starts since seemingly being banished to the bullpen for a couple of weeks. He’s come back throwing more sliders than changeups against two RH heavy lineups (Cardinals and Pirates) and that’s why I struggle with how to handle this small sample revival. He’s been better against LHBs, but hasn’t faced many good ones over his last two starts. The Marlins have two that hit RHBs well (Yelich and Dietrich) and though we can’t say the lineup is unnavigable, they have been hot (22.5 HR/FB over the last week) and struck out at a slightly below average rate vs RHP (19.0%). Like Morgan above, I might be persuaded to fourth tier him, but I’m unsure how this park is playing with decreased dimensions and I’m really trying not to be swayed by these one to two start improvements, no matter how dominant they appear.

Alex Wood struck out 12 of his first 100 batters and walked just one fewer. Then he struck out nine of 26 Padres while walking just one. Yeah, okay. An 8.0 SwStr% in his last start is not much higher than his season rate. Of course, a 16 K% is much better than 12%, but aside from a 60.5 GB% now, he’s done nothing that makes him useful in a daily fantasy sense, unless we’re sure he’ll at least maintain those averages now, which of course we can’t because it took one exceptional start after several bad ones to reach them. So no, I’m not back in on him based on one start. The Rays are good against LHP (35.8 Hard%). I’m not buying. He should be good for seven shutout innings now.

Mike Leake has allowed at least four runs in every start. His HR rate exceeds his strikeout rate.

Phil Hughes with a small strikeout rate in a small park.

Clay Buchholz might be toast? There are some positive signs and not a ton of really negative ones, but he’s been pounded by everyone he’s faced except those bums from Toronto, even the Braves last time out and has a better than 2.0 K/BB in just one start. He’s not someone you want to spend nearly $8K on at this point.

C.C. Sabathia IS toast.

K/BB Chart

Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.

K/BB Chart – Opponent

Batted Ball Chart

Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.

Batted Ball Charts – Opponent

K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)

Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.

We’ve talked about various SwStr rates in a few other places today, though only Tyler Wilson strays too far for comfort and he still projects for something much less than impressive.

ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)

How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.

Aaron Sanchez seems to be getting a bit lucky with his BABIP, but he’s kept his LD rate low, seems difficult to square up in the strike zone, and is sending a ton of weak ground balls at a decent infield defense. This makes sense, even if we expect his 82.3 LOB% to decline. It’s difficult to comment on his 15.0 HR/FB when he’s allowed just 20 fly balls.

Carlos Rodon has just a 67.1 LOB% that should self-correct for the most part absent any other issues. His 16.7 HR/FB is on just 18 fly balls and he had a normal 9.8 HR/FB last year. The ERA estimators themselves are where more of the concern might lie with his K% running a little high for his SwStr% and his lower BB% despite an inability to throw first pitch strikes.

Jose Fernandez has an ERA over four because he has been more hittable in several starts, leading to a .349 BABIP. Look at his 34.9 LD%. Including his 64.2 innings last year with a .343 BABIP with a 28.7 LD%, this is now something that’s gone on for nearly half a season’s worth of innings, though he was walking batters at half the rate last year with a strand rate 10 points higher (68.3% vs 78.4%). It would look even worse if he hadn’t allowed just one HR. The good news is that LD rate is more descriptive with a lot of volatility and the rest of his BABIP profile (IFFB%, Z-Contact%) look much more intimidating and he had a normal LD% prior two his surgery for more than 200 innings.

Mike Fiers – This is entirely his HR rate, which it normally is when only ERA and FIP match. Seven of his 29 fly balls have left the yard, but only one of his last 11 if you’re looking for a bright spot.

BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)

A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.

It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.

Drew Smyly – We have to talk about this BABIP and why it’s had just a marginal effect on his ERA compared to his SIERA and part of the reason is that it hasn’t affected his strand rate (77.8%), which is right at his career rate. He’s generated 43 fly balls and nearly 40% of them have been either infield flies or left the yard. He’s allowed just nine line drives through five starts as he’s third in the majors in that mark and 10th in Z-Contact%. Some of this is more descriptive than predictive and doesn’t fully explain a .173 BABIP, but with a strong defense and great tendencies he may have the skill set to counteract a high HR rate by being one of the better BABIP suppressors. And by that I mean something in the .250 to .270 range.

Pitcher Notes & Summary

Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.

One last note that I’ll be out this afternoon in case there are comments below that I don’t get to reply to.

Value Tier One

Drew Smyly has been the most consistent pitcher on the slate tonight. Even in the games where he’s allowed HRs he’s pitched reasonably well and allowed little else. He has a high strikeout floor that matches any other pitcher tonight and is only the second most expensive. He’s my top value on either site, but even more so for much less ($2.2K gap) on FanDuel.

Value Tier Two

Jose Fernandez has been a little more hittable and struggled with control, but the strikeout rate sits behind only Syndergaard. His performance projects similar to Smyly, but for a higher cost (much higher on FanDuel).

Value Tier Three

Mike Fiers – If you can’t afford the top two guys, this is probably the best place to drop down to for GPPs. Sanchez might provide more batted ball stability at a lower cost (it’s difficult to believe I just typed that), but Fiers could have higher K potential. The gap is nearly $2K on DraftKings where it’s a more difficult choice, but the cost is much closer ($800 gap) on FanDuel.

Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.

Aaron Sanchez has consistently performed well this year and is affordable today. The one concern is that his two high SwStr% games came against a very strikeout prone offense and his approach could be more sinker heavy to keep the ball on the ground and in the park in this matchup at home. Even so, it’s not worse than a neutral matchup and his contact profile is at the top of the league. You can probably count the number of pitchers on one hand each year who generate a 60% ground ball rate and 20 near league average K%. Last year it was Keuchel, Garcia, and Ross. If we drop it down to 59% this year, it’s Sanchez, Gray (not counting last night), and Hendricks. I only refrain from putting him higher because he’s had his two lowest strikeout starts at home (eight total) this year and has just a 15.3 K% at home since last season. If buying on Morgan and de la Rosa as talked about above, I’d probably want to separate him by moving him up into Tier Three.

Carlos Rodon sits here mostly because he’s facing an offense that has struggled greatly against LHP on a short slate. I’d probably opt to punt him on a deeper day because I don’t yet fully buy into his recent “improvement”. There’s some shakier pitch by pitch numbers underneath both his walk and strikeout rates. Still, once a lefty neutralizes Ortiz, it seems they neutralize the power in the Boston lineup.

You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.

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