Astros vs. Red Sox Odds, Preview, Prediction: Will Bats Stay Hot in Game 5?

Article Image

Astros vs. Red Sox Odds

Astros Odds +102
Red Sox Odds -120
Over/Under 9.5
Date Wednesday, Oct. 19
Time 5:08 p.m. ET
TV FOX

On Wednesday evening, the Houston Astros and the Boston Red Sox will battle in the American League Championship Series at Fenway Park. Houston scored four runs off of Boston’s bullpen in Game 1 to secure a come-from-behind win. In Game 2, the Red Sox hit two grand slams in an easy victory to tie up the series. In Game 3, Boston’s bats erupted for 12 runs in a dominating victory. In Game 4, Houston once again got to the Boston bullpen in the late innings to even up the series. In Game 5, we will have a starting pitching rematch from Game 1 with Framber Valdez on the hill for the Astros and Chris Sale taking the ball for the Red Sox. Oddsmakers are anticipating the Red Sox taking a 3-2 series lead, pricing Boston as -120 home favorites.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for Game 5 of the ALCS.

Read more: Red Sox vs. Astros Series Preview

Houston Astros (+102)

Valdez missed the beginning of the campaign due to injury, but was excellent in 22 starts once joining the rotation—posting a 3.14 ERA, 3.78 xERA, and a 4.01 FIP. Valdez was at his best this season when pitching away from Minute Maid Park, delivering a 3.86 FIP and a 1.14 WHIP on the road. He was also surprisingly better against right-handed hitters than he was against lefties, though he struggled mightily in the ALCS opener against a predominantly right-handed hitting Boston lineup. In Game 2 against the Chicago White Sox, he was tagged for four earned runs in only 4.1 innings of work, which was the fourth time in his last six starts that he had allowed four or more earned runs. Valdez has struggled this postseason, making him a risky play for bettors. Still, if he is going to turn in a strong performance, he is most likely to do so on the road.

Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Houston ranked fourth in OPS, fifth in ISO, 14th in walk rate, and had the best strikeout percentage of any team in the league at the plate. The Astros have scored five or more runs in seven of their eight postseason games this October. Jose Altuve, Michael Brantely, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, Carlos Correa, Kyle Tucker, and Yuli Gurriel is arguably the deepest lineup in baseball. Expect disciplined at-bats to lead to a number of scoring opportunities for this group once again in Game 5.

Houston continues to have significant question marks in their bullpen. Manager Dusty Baker has two fantastic options at the backend of his bullpen with Kendall Graveman and Ryan Pressly, but Phil Maton, Yimi Garcia, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley are far from elite options to bridge the gap from the starter to the latter frames. This unit performed admirably in the series opener—allowing only one earned run in 6.1 innings after Framber Valdez was chased from the contest in the third inning. This unit was spared from overuse in Game 2 thanks to four strong innings from Jake Odorizzi after Luis Garcia lasted only one inning, allowing five earned runs. Yesterday, this relief corps gave up six earned runs in 6.1 innings. To their credit, this unit held Boston scoreless for 7.2 innings yesterday after starter Zack Greinke only lasted 1.1 innings. However, overuse is increasingly becoming an issue as this series progresses.

Boston Red Sox (-130)

Chris Sale missed the entire 2020 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned for the latter half of the 2021 regular season, making nine starts, during which he posted a 3.16 ERA, 3.49 xERA, and a 3.69 FIP. Sale is a household name that will grab the attention of many bettors, but he is no longer one of the most dominant pitchers in the league. In his last four trips to the mound, he has surrendered 11 earned runs in only 11.1 innings of work. His Game 2 performance in the division series against the Tampa Bay Rays was a disaster, allowing five earned runs in only a single inning on the mound. He was unable to get back on track in the ALCS opener, allowing one earned run on five hits in only 2.2 innings. Sale is likely to have another difficult day tonight against a strong Houston lineup that saw him well less than a week ago.

Against left-handed pitching during the regular season, the Red Sox ranked eighth in OPS, 18th in ISO, 19th in walk rate, and 3rd in strikeout percentage. This lineup has been inconsistent against southpaws in October, getting shut down by Shane McClanahan in Game 1 of the division series, but finding success against Shane Baz and Framber Valdez in subsequent contests. Boston has plenty of offensive talent, but their offense is somewhat unreliable for bettors heading into Game 5.

It was less than ideal for Manager Alex Cora to burn through seven relief pitchers in a Game 1 loss, but none of those seven arms threw more than 18 pitches. In Game 2. Nathan Eovaldi gave Boston some much-needed length, lasting 5.1 innings. Rodriguez delivered six strong innings in Game 3, leaving only three innings for the bullpen to cover. Yesterday, Pivetta was strong across five innings, but Cora’s lack of faith in his late inning arms prompted him to use Eovaldi in relief, who ended up blowing the game in the ninth inning. This unit is not in great shape heading into Game 5.

Game 5 Pick

These are two evenly matched teams with elite offenses and suspect pitching staffs. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, Fenway Park has been one of the most hitter-friendly venues in the league in night games—ranking fifth in offensive production out of 30 stadiums. Valdez and Sale have both struggled in recent weeks and have tough assignments tonight on the mound in this one. Neither Houston nor Boston has a particularly talented bullpen, and both are prone to explosive blow-ups, as we saw yesterday in the ninth inning. As we predicted in our series preview, offense has been on full display through the first four games of the ALCS. Bettors should expect another high-scoring affair in Game 5. Take the over.

PICK: Over 9.5 (-110)

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom