Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, August 1st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duffy | KCR | TBR | 231.1 | 3.70 | 4.04 | 1.25 | 57.1% | 21.4% | 7.6% | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| Archer | TBR | KCR | 342.1 | 3.68 | 3.30 | 1.22 | 55.0% | 28.4% | 8.2% | 1.05 | 1.33 |
| Berrios | MIN | CLE | 15 | 10.20 | 4.76 | 2.13 | 26.7% | 16.0% | 3.00 | 0.82 | |
| Salazar | CLE | MIN | 300.1 | 3.24 | 3.54 | 1.16 | 12.5% | 26.4% | 8.3% | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| Sabathia | NYY | NYM | 274.1 | 4.43 | 4.31 | 1.39 | 25.0% | 18.3% | 7.5% | 1.21 | 1.40 |
| Verrett | NYM | NYY | 115 | 3.91 | 4.57 | 1.27 | 17.2% | 9.1% | 1.33 | 1.28 | |
| Koehler | MIA | CHC | 301.1 | 4.12 | 4.80 | 1.41 | 52.6% | 17.4% | 10.1% | 0.96 | 1.25 |
| Hendricks | CHC | MIA | 296.2 | 3.34 | 3.54 | 1.12 | 22.3% | 6.2% | 0.79 | 1.83 | |
| Fister | HOU | TOR | 226 | 3.94 | 4.72 | 1.33 | 58.3% | 14.5% | 7.0% | 1.15 | 1.34 |
| Strasburg | WAS | ARI | 248 | 3.16 | 2.90 | 1.06 | 52.4% | 30.4% | 6.0% | 0.98 | 1.19 |
| Bradley | ARI | WAS | 110.2 | 4.88 | 4.78 | 1.51 | 19.5% | 12.2% | 1.14 | 1.65 | |
| Rodriguez | BOS | SEA | 163.1 | 4.57 | 4.40 | 1.35 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.32 | 1.08 | |
| Paxton | SEA | BOS | 127.1 | 4.03 | 4.13 | 1.47 | 50.0% | 19.8% | 8.0% | 0.92 | 1.61 |
| Nelson | MIL | SDP | 296.1 | 3.83 | 4.44 | 1.32 | 18.5% | 9.3% | 0.94 | 1.64 | |
| Cosart | SDP | MIL | 89.1 | 4.84 | 4.95 | 1.47 | 31.6% | 15.0% | 12.6% | 1.01 | 2.56 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at ARI) – Stras finally had a rough outing, two starts ago versus the Dodgers, when he gave up six runs over six frames to take his first loss of the season. Naturally, the strikeout artists still punched out 10 hitters in the game, coming away with a respectable 16.70 points on DraftKings, and his season-long dominance is reflected in the fact that it was his lowest point tap of the season. He followed it up with seven scoreless frames against Cleveland, allowing just three hits and two walks while fanning seven, putting to rest any concerns that may have stemmed from the Dodger start. He might the highest floor in baseball right now and the ceiling is theoretically astronomical even though he has yet to have that monster game, as he’s cracked 34 points (DK) just once this season and topped out at 39 in a game back in April. He’s hit double-digit strikeouts in eight of his 19 starts this season yet topped out at 11 in any one ballgame.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Danny Salazar CLE (vs. MIN) – Salazar is ready to start fresh with a new month, putting an ugly July behind him. His ERA jumped three-quarters of a run (2.97) in his four starts on the month, despite the fact that he compiled a 23:6 K:BB in 22.0 innings, posting by far his lowest walk rate of any month this season. He pitched fewer frames than any month of the year yet gave up 50 percent more earned runs than any other month, as his rates of hits and homers allowed went through the roof. He faced the Twins one other time this season, back in April when the Twins’ offense was a wasteland, yet he still had his worst outing of the first half. His ranking reflects a belief that he can rebound, but Salazar has a number of things working against him for this game.
Danny Duffy KC (at TB) – Facing the Rays’ offense is a very different proposition for left-handed pitcher than it is a righty, as Tampa Bay has managed an OPS that is 83 points higher against southpaws this season, so the Duffy’s opponent is not as soft as the full-season stats might indicate. He faced the Rays once at the beginning of June, tossing a baseline quality start with six strikeouts, and his owners will be looking for a repeat performance. Duffy might be the game’s most improved pitcher this season, with a strikeout rate that has escalated by nearly ten percentage points and a walk rate that dropped by more than one-third when compared to last season, and those gains have held firm when pitching out of either the bullpen or the rotation.
Chris Archer TB (vs. KC) – The Royals aren’t as allergic to batter strikeouts this season as they were last year, ranking in the middle-third of the league in that category, which is a key factor in deciding whether to roster Archer for tonight. His nightmare of run prevention took an oddly-timed vacation in Colorado but has otherwise sunk his battleship in seasonal leagues this season, but he leads the AL in strikeouts and has maintained value in DFS with eight games of 25 or more fantasy points on DraftKings, including the last two games in a row. Archer struck out eight Dodgers in his last start without issuing a walk, only the third time this season that he went an entire outing without a few pass; incidentally, all three of those starts also involved eight or more strikeouts.
Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. MIA) – he may not be flashy, but Hendricks just keeps getting it done. He doesn’t stand out in any one category, but the right-hander has consistently posted low rates of hits, homers and walks allowed despite a pedestrian K rate. He struck out a dozen Pirates in a game in mid-June, but that was a complete anomaly, as he topped out at eight Ks in his other 18 starts. He has been on a roll since the 12-K game, with a 1.26 ERA over his last 43.0 innings pitched. In fact he didn’t give up any earned runs in July until his final start of the month, a game which involved his only homer allowed after surrendering one in each of his six starts of June.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duffy | 0.257 | 2.27 | 0.329 | 4.07 | 0.263 | 0.769 | 0.294 | 4.07 | 0.247 | 0.00 | 21.4% |
| Archer | 0.286 | 3.85 | 0.296 | 3.50 | 0.266 | 0.724 | 0.300 | 3.34 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 28.4% |
| Berrios | 0.255 | 0.743 | 0.405 | 7.41 | 0.323 | 0.00 | 26.7% | ||||
| Salazar | 0.285 | 3.49 | 0.287 | 3.01 | 0.244 | 0.702 | 0.277 | 3.50 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 26.4% |
| Sabathia | 0.259 | 3.86 | 0.343 | 4.57 | 0.243 | 0.723 | 0.305 | 4.43 | 0.268 | 0.00 | 18.3% |
| Verrett | 0.307 | 3.92 | 0.327 | 3.90 | 0.248 | 0.729 | 0.254 | 4.87 | 0.235 | 0.00 | 17.2% |
| Koehler | 0.335 | 4.30 | 0.310 | 3.94 | 0.247 | 0.738 | 0.290 | 4.43 | 0.253 | 0.00 | 17.4% |
| Hendricks | 0.320 | 2.88 | 0.254 | 3.68 | 0.261 | 0.701 | 0.280 | 3.35 | 0.229 | 0.00 | 22.3% |
| Stroman | 0.325 | 5.08 | 0.297 | 3.61 | 0.250 | 0.753 | 0.300 | 3.86 | 0.262 | 0.01 | 17.7% |
| Fister | 0.346 | 4.58 | 0.303 | 3.25 | 0.260 | 0.783 | 0.286 | 4.59 | 0.264 | 0.00 | 14.5% |
| Strasburg | 0.251 | 2.50 | 0.291 | 3.84 | 0.263 | 0.736 | 0.291 | 2.89 | 0.217 | 0.01 | 30.4% |
| Bradley | 0.345 | 4.07 | 0.327 | 5.69 | 0.246 | 0.721 | 0.292 | 4.78 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 19.5% |
| Rodriguez | 0.357 | 4.82 | 0.317 | 4.50 | 0.258 | 0.733 | 0.291 | 4.51 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 18.1% |
| Paxton | 0.415 | 5.70 | 0.296 | 3.65 | 0.278 | 0.777 | 0.330 | 3.78 | 0.276 | 0.01 | 19.8% |
| Nelson | 0.356 | 5.03 | 0.276 | 2.85 | 0.238 | 0.683 | 0.281 | 4.34 | 0.243 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Cosart | 0.315 | 4.50 | 0.340 | 5.16 | 0.253 | 0.710 | 0.267 | 4.97 | 0.243 | 0.00 | 15.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Jose Berrios MIN (at CLE) – The last time we saw Berrios on a major league mound, he was giving away walks like candy on Halloween due to misaligned delivery that forced everything he threw to drift off-target to the arm side. The Twins sent him back down to Triple-A after a handful of rough starts, and though he continued to struggle to find his release point for a few games, eventually Berrios righted the ship. In 10 games since the starts of June, the rookie right-hander has put up a 2.05 ERA and 76:18 K:BB in 70.1 innings. He was incredibly efficient, throwing no more than 100 pitches in any of the ten games yet tossing 7.0 or more innings in five of those last ten starts. I remain very high on his skill-set and believe that he was a relatively small adjustment away from getting back on track, and with the minor-league numbers indicating that such an adjustment has been made, I’m willing to roll the dice again that Berrios can have an impact. His previous struggles should keep his price tag low.
Marcus Stroman TOR (at HOU) – He has been much improved lately, including two or fewer runs allowed in three of his last five starts and going 6.2 or more innings in four of five. The issue that persists is his penchant for the blowup start, as in the five-start stretch he has also had a seven-run clunker that included three homers allowed to Oakland. He’s been good for a half-dozen strikeouts per start recently while greatly limiting the walks, including a mere four walks allowed in 34.0 July frames. There’s some strikeout upside here since he is facing the Astros, who lead the AL in batter Ks, but Houston also has a selectively-potent offense that can put the hurt on any pitcher on any given day.
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at SD) – Nelson’s 3.42 ERA looks solid on its surface, but dig a bit deeper and the number becomes a fraud. Nearly a quarter of the runs that he has given up this season have been unearned, and his last start was an example of how the vague rules concerning “earned” runs can be misleading at the extremes. Nelson surrendered eight runs in 4.2 innings against Arizona in his last start, but only two of those runs were deemed as earned – he gave up a three-run homer in the first inning, yet not one of the three runs was earned because of early-inning errors, absolving Nelson’s ERA of responsibility even though he was largely responsible for the homer that made those runs possible. Nelson has dodged earnie bullets all season, leading to a 4.78 FIP that exposes the fragility of his low ERA.
Archie Bradley ARI (vs. WAS) – The shine if off his prospect star, yet Bradley is still just 23 years old and is holding his own in the major leagues. His ERA is just 2.63 over his last four starts, but his 19:13 K:BB over 24.0 innings during that stretch exposes a lack of efficiency that has been present all season. The K rate and walk rate are both improvements upon his rates from his brief exposure last season, but the walk rate of 4.4.5 BB/9 is still too high, potentially putting him in position to pay for home runs (which are also too plentiful), though he has been somewhat fortunate so far in 2016 as that seven of the 11 homers that has surrendered have come with the bases empty.
Adam Conley MIA (at CHC)
Doug Fister HOU (vs. TOR)
CC Sabathia NYY (at NYM)
Logan Verrett NYM (vs. NYY)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jarred Cosart SD (vs. MIL)
James Paxton SEA (vs. BOS)
Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at SEA)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window