Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, April 9th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
(pitchers in italics are playing the early slate, with games starting prior to 7:00 pm EST)
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porcello | BOS | TOR | 376.2 | 4.11 | 3.82 | 1.29 | 55.6% | 17.60% | 5.0% | 1.03 | 1.55 |
| Dickey | TOR | BOS | 430.0 | 3.81 | 4.41 | 1.21 | 47.6% | 16.60% | 7.5% | 1.07 | 1.12 |
| Sabathia | NYY | DET | 213.1 | 4.85 | 3.85 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 19.80% | 6.4% | 1.60 | 1.46 |
| Pelfrey | DET | NYY | 188.1 | 4.73 | 4.85 | 1.54 | 0.0% | 11.50% | 7.6% | 0.76 | 1.78 |
| Cole | PIT | CIN | 346.0 | 3.02 | 3.23 | 1.14 | 28.6% | 24.20% | 6.0% | 0.57 | 1.59 |
| Iglesias | CIN | PIT | 95.1 | 4.15 | 3.26 | 1.14 | 0.0% | 26.30% | 7.1% | 1.04 | 1.48 |
| Anderson | CLE | CWS | 267.0 | 4.18 | 4.05 | 1.33 | 40.0% | 19.20% | 7.1% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Sale | CWS | CLE | 382.2 | 2.85 | 2.54 | 1.03 | 64.3% | 31.30% | 5.3% | 0.85 | 1.10 |
| Kershaw | LAD | SFG | 431.0 | 1.96 | 2.17 | 0.87 | 66.7% | 33.00% | 4.5% | 0.50 | 1.77 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | LAD | 435.2 | 2.95 | 2.99 | 1.05 | 47.6% | 26.00% | 4.7% | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| Koehler | MIA | WAS | 378.2 | 3.95 | 4.42 | 1.33 | 52.6% | 18.10% | 9.2% | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Ross | WAS | MIA | 76.2 | 3.64 | 3.66 | 1.11 | 0.0% | 22.00% | 6.7% | 0.82 | 1.47 |
| Smyly | TBR | BAL | 219.2 | 3.20 | 3.55 | 1.17 | 50.0% | 23.50% | 6.9% | 1.19 | 0.84 |
| Wright | BAL | TBR | 44.2 | 6.04 | 5.28 | 1.57 | 0.0% | 12.80% | 8.8% | 1.81 | 0.88 |
| Fister | HOU | MIL | 267.0 | 3.10 | 4.15 | 1.20 | 58.3% | 14.50% | 4.3% | 1.08 | 1.38 |
| Peralta | MIL | HOU | 307.1 | 3.95 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 47.4% | 16.30% | 7.5% | 1.08 | 1.89 |
| Velasquez | PHI | NYM | |||||||||
| Colon | NYM | PHI | 397.0 | 4.13 | 3.88 | 1.23 | 42.1% | 17.30% | 3.3% | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Martinez | STL | ATL | 269.0 | 3.35 | 3.44 | 1.33 | 0.0% | 23.50% | 8.7% | 0.57 | 2.05 |
| Teheran | ATL | STL | 421.2 | 3.44 | 3.94 | 1.19 | 70.0% | 20.70% | 7.2% | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| Milone | MIN | KCR | 246.2 | 4.05 | 4.48 | 1.33 | 43.8% | 15.60% | 6.9% | 1.20 | 1.08 |
| Kennedy | KCR | MIN | 369.1 | 3.92 | 3.54 | 1.29 | 47.6% | 24.40% | 7.8% | 1.15 | 1.03 |
| Hendricks | CHC | ARI | 260.1 | 3.49 | 3.57 | 1.14 | 0.0% | 20.20% | 5.5% | 0.73 | 1.74 |
| Greinke | ARI | CHC | 425.0 | 2.16 | 3.07 | 0.99 | 50.0% | 24.50% | 5.0% | 0.70 | 1.57 |
| Pomeranz | SDP | COL | 155.0 | 3.08 | 3.68 | 1.15 | 25.0% | 23.00% | 9.0% | 0.87 | 1.21 |
| De La Rosa | COL | SDP | 333.1 | 4.13 | 4.07 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 19.50% | 9.4% | 1.03 | 1.78 |
| Hamels | TEX | LAA | 417.0 | 3.06 | 3.37 | 1.17 | 58.8% | 24.20% | 7.1% | 0.78 | 1.51 |
| Richards | LAA | TEX | 376.0 | 3.18 | 3.61 | 1.15 | 65.0% | 22.00% | 8.2% | 0.60 | 1.90 |
| Hill | OAK | SEA | 34.1 | 1.83 | 2.62 | 0.93 | 0.0% | 33.30% | 8.2% | 0.52 | 1.35 |
| Karns | SEA | OAK | 159.0 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 1.25 | 0.0% | 23.60% | 9.0% | 1.25 | 1.14 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
The morning slate is loaded with stud arms, peppering the All-in section with options. But pitchers from the evening slate are nowhere to be found.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (at SF) – The best pitcher in all the land, battling his rivals at one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball? Sign me up for seconds. Kershaw was his typical dominant self in his first start of the season, blanking the Padres for seven frames with nine strikeouts while allowing just two baserunners. Scratching out the W will be difficult against the Giants Madison Bumgarner, but expect this to be a low-scoring games in which Kershaw’s value will be determined by zeroes on the scoreboard and Ks in the scorebook.
Chris Sale CHW (vs. CLE) – Sale had a fairly boring outing (by his standards) on Opening Day, giving up three runs over seven and punching out eight batters. Most pitchers take a little bit of time to warm up with the season, so pitchers are excused if they lack peak velocity in spring, but Sale was actually throwing nearly a full mph harder in his first start of 2016 than what he averaged last season, according to Brooks Baseball.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. LAD) – Do you know what “nemesis” means? There is no greater duel out west than when Bum faces Kersh. These two gunslingers have faced off seven times in their careers, and though they lined up occasionally from 2011-14, the rivalry really took off last season. They opposed each other four times in 2015, including three times in a one-month span and then one final face-off in the final week of the season. Bumgarner pitched brilliantly in three of the four games, helping the Giants to victories in each of the spring games, but he stumbled in his final start of the year. All told, Bummer threw 26.1 innings with 2.05 ERA in those four games, with 27 strikeouts and six walks allowed. If there’s a must-watch game this week month, it’s here.
Gerrit Cole PIT (at CIN) – The great thing about a morning slate that is chock-full of elite arms is that ownership rates get thinned out a bit. It will be interesting to see how gamers play it, because there is a very steep cliff from Cole down to the next morning-only pitcher on this list. These four pitchers are each $10k or more on DraftKings, and within two pitchers the cost drops more than $2500. Cole offers the tempting combination of both a high ceiling and a high floor, facing a Reds lineup that gets dangerous around the middle but thins out quickly near the edges.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Cole Hamels TEX (at LAA) – His first start went according to plan, though the control was a bit shaky in the strike zone and he paid for the mistakes via two solo home runs. The value that he brings most to the table is reliability, with relative consistency and stability across the stat-line. This equates to a high-floor, low-ceiling pitcher, so roster Hamels accordingly.
Zack Greinke ARI (vs. CHC) – Greinke claims to have been battling the flu on Opening Day, an excuse which theoretically explains away the reality that it was his worst outing in four years. His velocity averaged the same 92 mph that it has for years, and for the first couple of innings there was nothing that appeared to be wrong. The wheels came off in the third, as Greinke was not just missing targets but also elevating pitches, the key ingredient for giving up extra-base hits. His mechanical timing was clearly off-kilter and it could be that he’ll be fine once at full strength, but timing is one thing that can take awhile to harness and the Cubs present an unforgiving lineup if Greinke is unable to find his rhythm quickly.
Carlos Martinez STL (at ATL) – Expect CarMart to be a popular pick today. He’s coming off of a great year, had an excellent spring, and is facing a weak opponent, so what’s not to like here? The haters keep pointing to his less-than-ideal size and the transition from relieving to starting as if his breakdown is inevitable, but the Cardinals have one of the best player development systems in the game and it extends to all levels, such that I trust their ability to adapt and optimize CarMart’s development at the big-league level. He might rank third on the luist of late-slate pitchers, but perhaps no ther pitcher on the board brings better value for the virtual dollar.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porcello | 0.320 | 3.12 | 0.314 | 4.26 | 0.235 | 0.718 | 0.313 | 3.88 | 0.274 | 96.65 | 17.6% |
| Dickey | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.324 | 4.32 | 0.257 | 0.714 | 0.260 | 4.40 | 0.236 | 101.15 | 16.6% |
| Sabathia | 0.378 | 4.93 | 0.273 | 0.777 | 0.324 | 4.70 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 19.8% | ||
| Pelfrey | 0.294 | 4.41 | 0.342 | 4.61 | 0.228 | 0.694 | 0.328 | 4.45 | 0.300 | 0.00 | 11.5% |
| Cole | 0.326 | 2.81 | 0.288 | 3.59 | 0.224 | 0.691 | 0.307 | 2.89 | 0.238 | 100.65 | 24.2% |
| Iglesias | 0.271 | 3.27 | 0.234 | 0.642 | 0.286 | 3.55 | 0.225 | 87.00 | 26.3% | ||
| Anderson | 0.314 | 3.76 | 0.341 | 4.48 | 0.256 | 0.679 | 0.306 | 4.17 | 0.265 | 90.71 | 19.2% |
| Sale | 0.183 | 0.00 | 0.280 | 3.14 | 0.226 | 0.638 | 0.303 | 2.66 | 0.219 | 106.60 | 31.3% |
| Kershaw | 0.215 | 0.96 | 0.232 | 1.99 | 0.254 | 0.682 | 0.279 | 1.91 | 0.194 | 101.90 | 33.0% |
| Bumgarner | 0.239 | 1.84 | 0.286 | 3.15 | 0.239 | 0.651 | 0.289 | 2.96 | 0.228 | 102.83 | 26.0% |
| Koehler | 0.292 | 3.43 | 0.321 | 3.95 | 0.239 | 0.669 | 0.286 | 4.18 | 0.248 | 92.45 | 18.1% |
| Ross | 0.205 | 3.53 | 0.261 | 0.676 | 0.265 | 3.42 | 0.220 | 72.06 | 22.0% | ||
| Smyly | 0.216 | 2.54 | 0.331 | 3.63 | 0.306 | 0.798 | 0.280 | 3.81 | 0.234 | 93.20 | 23.5% |
| Wright | 0.361 | 6.56 | 0.235 | 0.684 | 0.295 | 6.13 | 0.287 | 0.00 | 12.8% | ||
| Fister | 0.306 | 2.48 | 0.311 | 3.20 | 0.232 | 0.650 | 0.281 | 4.17 | 0.260 | 82.44 | 14.5% |
| Peralta | 0.361 | 5.12 | 0.303 | 2.97 | 0.244 | 0.747 | 0.304 | 4.37 | 0.272 | 95.12 | 16.3% |
| Velasquez | 0.235 | 0.653 | |||||||||
| Colon | 0.299 | 4.10 | 0.325 | 4.47 | 0.207 | 0.567 | 0.307 | 3.70 | 0.272 | 89.33 | 17.3% |
| Martinez | 0.363 | 5.65 | 0.275 | 2.76 | 0.255 | 0.707 | 0.323 | 3.20 | 0.250 | 47.99 | 23.5% |
| Teheran | 0.301 | 3.31 | 0.260 | 2.71 | 0.279 | 0.762 | 0.277 | 3.93 | 0.237 | 99.18 | 20.7% |
| Milone | 0.323 | 3.86 | 0.335 | 4.14 | 0.297 | 0.805 | 0.284 | 4.49 | 0.260 | 86.78 | 15.6% |
| Kennedy | 0.304 | 3.38 | 0.324 | 4.01 | 0.231 | 0.623 | 0.309 | 3.80 | 0.249 | 100.21 | 24.4% |
| Hendricks | 0.261 | 2.41 | 0.265 | 3.62 | 0.256 | 0.693 | 0.287 | 3.34 | 0.240 | 87.76 | 20.2% |
| Greinke | 0.277 | 2.06 | 0.257 | 2.41 | 0.242 | 0.694 | 0.269 | 2.86 | 0.215 | 100.77 | 24.5% |
| Pomeranz | 0.300 | 1.20 | 0.295 | 3.59 | 0.259 | 0.726 | 0.259 | 3.69 | 0.213 | 35.34 | 23.0% |
| De La Rosa | 0.241 | 2.47 | 0.332 | 4.37 | 0.309 | 0.801 | 0.274 | 4.27 | 0.237 | 95.28 | 19.5% |
| Hamels | 0.291 | 2.18 | 0.290 | 3.33 | 0.252 | 0.754 | 0.294 | 3.27 | 0.233 | 104.50 | 24.2% |
| Richards | 0.237 | 2.78 | 0.284 | 3.32 | 0.193 | 0.559 | 0.269 | 3.30 | 0.217 | 101.33 | 22.0% |
| Hill | 0.215 | 2.22 | 0.251 | 0.735 | 0.257 | 2.49 | 0.174 | 27.60 | 33.3% | ||
| Karns | 0.312 | 4.61 | 0.279 | 0.767 | 0.277 | 4.21 | 0.231 | 91.24 | 23.6% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Garrett Richards LAA (at TEX)
Julio Teheran ATL (vs. STL)
Joe Ross WAS (vs. MIA) – Comping a player to his brother is both lazy and boring, but in this case it’s almost necessary. The Ross brothers have the same upright delivery and are both overly-reliant on a devastating slider. Ross has reportedly been working on an off-speed pitch in the offseason to complement the rest of his arsenal, which also bodes well for the long-term health of an arm that will be counted on for a bucket-load of sliders.
Raisel Iglesias CIN (vs. PIT) – Iglesias is a great young pitcher with an enhanced learning curve, but the market has been a bit over-exuberant on him this offseason. He is the same pitcher that carried a 5.90 ERA into the All-Star break, but he also qualifies as a modern-day sleeper in an age where all it takes is a stronger-than-expected second half. Iglesias was better than the 5.90 ERA suggested and he’s also not as good as his final six starts would indicate (3.25 ERA, 43 Ks in 36.0 innings). Over-appreciated today is under-appreciated tomorrow, and hopefully at this time next year the market will catch up to Iglesias’ talents.
Nate Karns SEA (vs. OAK)
Kyle Hendricks CHC (at ARI)
Drew Smyly TB (at BAL) – A homer-prone pitcher in a homer-friendly ballpark? Sounds like a recipe for disaster. The Orioles slip a peg when facing southpaws, but the overall firepower of that lineup was enough to hit four homers off of Chris Archer yesterday, which does not bode well for the far less impressive Smyly.
Vincent Velasquez PHI (at NYM)
Cody Anderson CLE (at CHW)
Mike Pelfrey DET (vs. NYY)
Wily Peralta MIL (vs. HOU) – I see many homers surrendered in your future …
Bartolo Colon NYM (vs. PHI)
Ian Kennedy KC (vs. MIN)
Mike Wright BAL (vs. TB)
Doug Fister HOU (at MIL) – Beware the low K rate, just 5.4 K/9 over last two seasons.
Tom Koehler MIA (at WAS)
Tommy Milone MIN (at KC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
CC Sabathia NYY (at DET)
R.A. Dickey TOR (vs. BOS)
Rich Hill OAK (at SEA) – This has less to do with Seattle’s offense, and more to do with the fact that Hill has been a complete wreck ever since the calendar flipped to 2016. His spring was atrocious, his first start was cut short due to ineffectiveness, and at this point he is more likely to walk five batters than to strike out five batters.
Rick Porcello BOS (at TOR)
Jorge de la Rosa COL (vs. SD)
Drew Pomeranz SD (at COL) – Sucks to pitch at altitude. At least Pomeranz has been there and done that before, having pitched with the Rockies from 2011-13. That will make it easier for him to sleep on the flight home.
Starting Pitcher Salaries
Click the image below to view pitcher salaries by each daily fantasy site along with their percent of top statistics.
- Percent of Top (Top) – Player salary divided by the most expensive pitcher each day. So if “”(player-popup)Felix Hernandez”:/players/felix-hernandez-10954(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Felix_Hernandez-10954 is $9,000 on FanDuel and “”(player-popup)Justin Verlander”:/players/justin-verlander-10908(player-profile)”:/fantasyplayers/Justin_Verlander-10908 is $4,500, Verlanders Top stat would be 50.
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window