Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, September 24th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-25 18:17:07

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Corbin	ARI	LAD	75.1	2.99	3.29	1.18	22.7%	4.2%	1.08	1.61
Kershaw	LAD	ARI	413.1	1.98	2.20	0.88	32.4%	4.5%	0.50	1.83
Locke	PIT	COL	294	4.22	4.14	1.35	17.0%	7.8%	0.95	1.89
Bettis	COL	PIT	127.2	5.36	4.22	1.54	17.2%	8.2%	1.06	1.68
Hamels	TEX	OAK	396	3.05	3.35	1.18	24.3%	7.0%	0.75	1.49
Bassitt	OAK	TEX	103	3.15	4.43	1.25	17.2%	8.3%	0.44	1.15
Wilson	BAL	WAS	29	3.72	5.22	1.34	6.7%	5.8%	0.31	1.58
Roark	WAS	BAL	292	3.45	4.01	1.18	16.5%	5.1%	0.92	1.25
Sale	CHW	NYY	368.2	2.86	2.53	1.03	31.5%	5.3%	0.83	1.10
Pineda	NYY	CHW	221.1	3.33	3.21	1.08	22.5%	3.1%	0.94	1.36
Matz	NYM	CIN	30	1.80	3.99	1.13	21.3%	8.2%	1.20	1.33
Smith	CIN	NYM	18.2	7.71	5.95	1.98	15.2%	16.3%	1.93	1.00
Asher	PHI	MIA	19.1	9.78	5.47	1.91	11.8%	7.5%	2.79	0.66
Cosart	MIA	PHI	241.1	3.88	4.43	1.35	15.2%	9.8%	0.67	2.03
Ramirez	TBR	BOS	226.1	4.22	4.17	1.26	18.6%	7.7%	1.11	1.21
Miley	BOS	TBR	383.2	4.34	3.91	1.37	19.7%	8.2%	0.89	1.71
Jungmann	MIL	STL	111.1	3.31	4.01	1.22	21.7%	8.7%	0.65	1.36
Wacha	STL	MIL	279.1	3.13	3.86	1.18	20.7%	7.2%	0.74	1.28
Paxton	SEA	KCR	139.2	3.35	4.14	1.29	19.3%	9.8%	0.64	1.83
Cueto	KCR	SEA	437.2	2.78	3.39	1.02	23.3%	5.9%	0.86	1.24
Anderson	CLE	MIN	77.2	3.48	4.79	1.09	12.3%	6.5%	0.93	1.48
Gibson	MIN	CLE	365.1	4.09	4.19	1.29	15.5%	7.7%	0.69	2.03
Bumgarner	SFG	SDP	423	2.91	2.99	1.05	25.9%	4.6%	0.81	1.22
Kennedy	SDP	SFG	358.1	3.92	3.59	1.28	24.1%	7.9%	1.13	1.00

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Madison Bumgarner SF (at SD) – In a shallow player pool with question marks attached to nearly every option on the mound, Bumgarner stands head and shoulders above the water line as the only pitcher on deck for tonight who is both trustworthy and potentially elite. The Padres are stacked to mash lefties, with southpaw-smashers such as Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, and Derek Norris in tow, but that hasn’t mattered against Bummer this season: Mad Bum has faced the Pads four times this season, posting a collective 2.36 ERA with 33 punchouts and just two walks across 26.7 innings. He is virtually the same pitcher regardless of opponent, as evidenced by his 2.83 ERA against clubs with a record at or above .500 and a 2.85 mark against teams that are under the break-even point.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Chris Sale CHW (at NYY) – His last four ballgames have been part of home-and-home series’ with against Cleveland and Minnesota, and Sale has been bombarded in those starts, with a 5.40 ERA (and an RA of 7.71) to taint his Cy chances. The strikeouts are still in full effect, having notched 30 K’s in 23.3 innings of those four starts, but the issues with run prevention put his roster value in limbo. The biggest issue has been a penchant for the long ball, particularly against the Indians, against whom he has given up five homers in the two ballgames. Sale has been leaving fastballs up in the zone, a dangerous habit for a pitcher with such a low release point, as the lack of downhill plane has made it easy for opposing hitters to add their own loft. It also serves as a reminder that control (avoiding walks) and command (hitting targets) are not the same thing, as Sale has struggled mightily to nail catcher targets recently but has only five walks to show for it. He faces a formidable opponent today against the Yankees, but Sale’s stat-line has much more to do with whether he can hit his spots than the clout of the New York bats.

Michael Wacha STL (vs. MIL) – In what feels like an ongoing trend for the game’s top arms, Wacha has hit excessive turbulence as he finishes the regular season. He has a 5.14 ERA in his last four starts (and an RA of 6.86), having coughed up four or more runs in three of the four contests, and batters are hitting a collective .253/.364/.518 with six homers in 99 plate appearances against the right-hander during that stretch (despite a .259 BAbip). The two roughest games were both against the Cubs, an element which could loom large in the postseason, but today’s opponent should offer a relatively soft landing: the Brewers jettisoned half of their starting lineup at the trade deadline, top hitter Ryan Braun has missed the last five ballgames due to a balky back that will require offseason surgery, and Jonathan Lucroy has yet to be cleared to play due to concussion symptoms.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Corbin	0.247	1.96	0.333	3.32	0.261	0.749	0.312	3.44	0.259	77.64	22.7%
Kershaw	0.238	1.94	0.234	1.99	0.266	0.746	0.280	1.96	0.196	102.98	32.4%
Locke	0.302	4.33	0.325	4.19	0.245	0.653	0.296	4.17	0.26	92.96	17.0%
Bettis	0.335	4.79	0.381	6.00	0.262	0.727	0.325	4.32	0.283	55.97	17.2%
Hamels	0.291	2.11	0.290	3.30	0.251	0.703	0.298	3.21	0.235	104.71	24.3%
Bassitt	0.312	3.02	0.285	3.30	0.260	0.742	0.287	3.71	0.24	80.90	17.2%
Wilson	0.319	4.76	0.335	2.25	0.253	0.730	0.301	3.87	0.286	57.00	6.7%
Roark	0.324	3.88	0.278	3.05	0.254	0.747	0.282	3.84	0.252	66.35	16.5%
Sale	0.234	1.54	0.279	3.13	0.258	0.759	0.305	2.63	0.219	106.84	31.5%
Pineda	0.285	2.87	0.295	3.79	0.254	0.706	0.295	3.10	0.245	92.57	22.5%
Matz	0.318	0.00	0.260	2.31	0.246	0.717	0.247	4.25	0.216	96.60	21.3%
Smith	0.514	9.00	0.355	6.94	0.246	0.711	0.327	7.48	0.301	0.00	15.2%
Asher	0.451	8.31	0.450	10.97	0.252	0.672	0.348	7.13	0.349	0.00	11.8%
Cosart	0.311	3.24	0.306	4.45	0.245	0.675	0.280	4.11	0.247	94.55	15.2%
Ramirez	0.287	3.47	0.349	5.21	0.266	0.739	0.280	4.35	0.246	71.80	18.6%
Miley	0.306	4.60	0.327	4.26	0.259	0.754	0.310	3.85	0.26	98.40	19.7%
Jungmann	0.307	2.77	0.288	3.79	0.261	0.733	0.287	3.55	0.231	98.00	21.7%
Wacha	0.266	3.00	0.305	3.23	0.261	0.720	0.277	3.49	0.23	94.79	20.7%
Paxton	0.350	4.24	0.271	3.17	0.271	0.719	0.275	3.70	0.229	90.40	19.3%
Cueto	0.255	2.15	0.289	3.35	0.241	0.717	0.256	3.39	0.211	104.97	23.3%
Anderson	0.329	4.83	0.250	2.54	0.243	0.697	0.235	4.32	0.225	85.00	12.3%
Gibson	0.304	3.89	0.300	4.30	0.253	0.723	0.284	3.88	0.25	96.18	15.5%
Bumgarner	0.245	2.27	0.285	3.07	0.244	0.679	0.293	2.88	0.23	102.41	25.9%
Kennedy	0.319	3.70	0.329	4.13	0.267	0.741	0.303	3.83	0.245	100.34	24.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Steven Matz NYM (at CIN) – It’s tough to trust a pitcher with 30.0 MLB innings under his belt, but Matz has at least earned our attention with a 1.80 ERA over his first five starts, not having given up more than two runs in a single game. His K-to-walk count of 26-to-10 isn’t particularly inspiring and two of his three opponents this month have been the light-hitting ballclubs of Atlanta and Miami, but he limited the Yankees to a lone run over six innings of his last start, shut out the Dodgers for six frames back in July (with eight punchouts), and shut down these Reds in his first career start. He has a prohibitive price tag that might cause managers to look the other way, ranking as the seventh-most expensive pitcher on FanDuel and number three on DraftKings, but on a thin slate he is a decent option who falls into the top five on this man’s board.

Johnny Cueto KC (vs.SEA) – Cueto was an absolute mess for about three weeks, posting an ugly 9.57 ERA across five starts, punctuated by an eight-run shellacking (with four homers) at the hands of the Orioles two starts ago. He finally had a solid outing in his last turn, limiting Detroit to just two runs over 7.0 innings of work, but the K count remained low with just four strikeouts. Cueto hasn’t punched out more than four hitters in a ballgame since August and has cleared that bar just once in his last six turns. While K’s don’t define his value, missing some bats would go a long way toward calming a hit rate that has seen opponents gather 64 hits in his last 41.3 frames.The Mariners’ 21.9-percent K rate on the season offers a semblance of hope that he Cueto can bust a half-dozen K’s today, but enthusiasm is tempered given that Seattle has a robust .388 wOBA and 914 OPS over the last seven days.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. CHW) – Pineda has had five starts since returning from the disabled list, but the results have been less than inspiring. He has given up four or more earnies in three of those five starts, has a collective ERA of 4.67 over that stretch. He did shut out the Mets for 5.3 innings of his last start and limited Boston to just one run over six frames to start the month, meanwhile his K-to-walk ratio of 24-to-six (in 27.0 innings) is nearly as impressive as his ratio before getting shelved. We can forgive the three homers that he gave up to Toronto (they take everyone deep) and he gets a cakewalk of a matchup today against the Pale Hose, giving enough reasons to make him a solid dice-roll in GPP tournaments but one that has the potential to sink a battleship in cash games.

Taylor Jungmann MIL (at STL) – Jungmann carried a 2.48 ERA into the month of September, but the goblins of regression might have finally caught up to the 24-year old right-hander. He was playing over his head for much of the season (his minor-league ERA was 3.79 with a 1.315 WHIP), but his 9.20 ERA over the last three starts have quickly brought his numbers back in line with expectation. He went through a stretch of solid strikeout totals over the summer, but Jungmann has only cleared the half-dozen K mark once in his last six starts, that being a seven-strikeout performance against the Pirates two turns ago. Most alarming are the five homers that he has given up through his last three starts and 14.7 innings, given that he coughed up just three longballs combined in the16 starts and 96.7 frames.

Ian Kennedy SD (vs. SF) – Seriously, today is the day of pitcher who are off-kilter. Consider Kennedy, who gave up more than three earned runs just once in 16 starts from June to August but has fallen that well in two of his last three starts (it would be three-for-three if not for one unearned run). He started the month out strong, with a season-high 12 strikeouts against the Rangers, but that was clearly an aberration from a pitcher who has just two other starts of nine or more whiffs this season. His worst outing of the second half came two starts ago against these Giants, with seven earned runs and just two strikeouts recorded in 4.7 innings as Kennedy was ousted before he could complete the fifth.

James Paxton SEA (at KC)

Jarred Cosart MIA (vs. PHI)

Erasmo Ramirez TB (at BOS)

Wade Miley BOS (vs. TB)

Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. CLE)

Cody Anderson CLE (at MIN)