Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Team Preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
Baseball is almost here! With an eventful offseason in the books and spring training underway, it’s time to preview all 30 teams in Major League Baseball. With the help of RotoGrinders PlateIQ Premium, DFS ownership trends from Chris Gimino, and our resident Premium MLB guru Dave Potts (aka CheeseIsGood), we take a look at some information that is definitely interesting and possibly helpful for the upcoming 2019 MLB season.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Preseason Overview
— Vegas Win Total O/U: 73.5
— World Series Odds: 200/1
— Key Additions: Wilmer Flores, Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, Merrill Kelly
Other Noteworthy Players for DFS: John Ryan Murphy, Alex Avila, Jarrod Dyson
— Outlook: The post-Goldschmidt Diamondbacks aren’t projected to be one of the better teams in the league, and a general lack of power potential could put a hurt on their ability to win slates in DFS. The biggest power threats they have are far from mouth watering, as David Peralta (30 HR / Rank 125 Barrel %/ .223 ISO) and Eduardo Escobar (23 HR / Rank 102 Barrel %/.217 ISO) had the most appealing 2018 power numbers. Jake Lamb is moving to first base this season, and he’ll need to bounce back from his shoulder injury in a big way for us to be choosing him at one of the most loaded positions in MLB DFS. This team is 200/1 to win the World Series, and that’s the kind of thing losing both Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock in one offseason can do to your team’s outlook.
Pitching will keep them in games despite their lack-luster power, as their starting rotation looks solid. In addition to the holdovers with 62+ average PlateIQ scores (Zack Greinke, Robbie Ray, and Zack Godley), the Diamondbacks will stroll out better-in-real-life pitcher Luke Weaver and former Korean League arm Merrill Kelly at the back end of their rotation. It’s a group that has some strikeout ability that we’ll have to get involved with at some point during their 162 game schedule.
— DFS Ownership Trends: It looks like 2018 DFS players were as turned off by the humidor at Chase Field as this Jeff Sullivan article suggested they should have been. Chase field was just the 18th most heavily owned park in 2018, after spending several seasons as one of the most popular spots. The humidor isn’t the only reason, though. Their lineup was just the 16th most popular, and they featured an unpopular staff to stack with Greinke (Rank 318/353), Ray (Rank 297/353), and Godley (Rank 275 of 353) all ranking near the bottom of the league in owned against %. In 2019 they’ve added Weaver (rank 284/353), and this former hitters park is bound to be one of the least owned spots yet again this season.
Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes
— Entering 2018, Ketel Marte had 730 career batted balls; he barreled up 9 of these (1.2%); in 444 batted balls last season, he barreled up 22 (5.0%). Marte should set the table for Arizona’s depleted 2018 lineup, and he fits the bill as a potential salary-saving option who can put the ball in play (his 13.6% K rate in 2018 was a career low) and has a bit of pop.
— In 2017, David Peralta ’s 31.6% hard-hit rate ranked 96th of 144 qualified hitters, tied with Kole Calhoun; in 2018, Peralta’s 48.6% hard-hit rate ranked second of 140 qualified hitters, trailing only Matt Carpenter. With all the talk of the humidor suppressing exit velocity at Chase Field, Peralta basically said, “Hold my beer,” then learned to hit the ball really hard, like, all the time. Peralta still hits half his batted balls on the ground, which isn’t ideal, but it helps that nearly a quarter of his fly balls left the yard. Perennially low-owned in daily fantasy, you’ll want to jump on board quickly if Peralta learns how to elevate the ball in 2019.
— Robbie Ray is one of only three qualified pitchers since 2016 to strike out more than 30 percent of the batters he’s faced; the others are Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. That’s the good news. But with the good comes the bad, and for Ray, the “bad” is the 10.8% walk rate (fifth-worst in MLB since 2016) and the 39.8% hard-hit rate (the worst in MLB). Rostering Ray is always an adventure, but maybe this is the year he figures it out.